Delineating excess comorbidities in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: Our study examined whether prevalent and incident comorbidities are increased in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) patients when compared to matched chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients and control subjects without IPF or COPD. METHODS: IPF and age, gender and smoking matched COPD patients, diagnosed between 01/01/1997 and 01/01/2019 were identified from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD database multiple registrations cohort at the first date an ICD-10 or read code mentioned IPF/COPD. A control cohort comprised age, gender and pack-year smoking matched subjects without IPF or COPD. Prevalent (prior to IPF/COPD diagnosis) and incident (after IPF/COPD diagnosis) comorbidities were examined. Group differences were estimated using a t-test. Mortality relationships were examined using multivariable Cox proportional hazards adjusted for patient age, gender and smoking status. RESULTS: Across 3055 IPF patients, 38% had 3 or more prevalent comorbidities versus 32% of COPD patients and 21% of matched control subjects. Survival time reduced as the number of comorbidities in an individual increased (p < 0.0001). In IPF, prevalent heart failure (Hazard ratio [HR] = 1.62, 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 1.43-1.84, p < 0.001), chronic kidney disease (HR = 1.27, 95%CI: 1.10-1.47, p = 0.001), cerebrovascular disease (HR = 1.18, 95%CI: 1.02-1.35, p = 0.02), abdominal and peripheral vascular disease (HR = 1.29, 95%CI: 1.09-1.50, p = 0.003) independently associated with reduced survival. Key comorbidities showed increased incidence in IPF (versus COPD) 7-10 years prior to IPF diagnosis. INTERPRETATION: The mortality impact of excessive prevalent comorbidities in IPF versus COPD and smoking matched controls suggests that multiorgan mechanisms of injury need elucidation in patients that develop IPF.

Blood-based epigenome-wide analyses of chronic low-grade inflammation across diverse population cohorts.

Chronic inflammation is a hallmark of age-related disease states. The effectiveness of inflammatory proteins including C-reactive protein (CRP) in assessing long-term inflammation is hindered by their phasic nature. DNA methylation (DNAm) signatures of CRP may act as more reliable markers of chronic inflammation. We show that inter-individual differences in DNAm capture 50% of the variance in circulating CRP (N = 17,936, Generation Scotland). We develop a series of DNAm predictors of CRP using state-of-the-art algorithms. An elastic-net-regression-based predictor outperformed competing methods and explained 18% of phenotypic variance in the Lothian Birth Cohort of 1936 (LBC1936) cohort, doubling that of existing DNAm predictors. DNAm predictors performed comparably in four additional test cohorts (Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, Health for Life in Singapore, Southall and Brent Revisited, and LBC1921), including for individuals of diverse genetic ancestry and different age groups. The best-performing predictor surpassed assay-measured CRP and a genetic score in its associations with 26 health outcomes. Our findings forge new avenues for assessing chronic low-grade inflammation in diverse populations.

Technical development and feasibility of a reusable vest to integrate cardiovascular magnetic resonance with electrocardiographic imaging.

BACKGROUND: Electrocardiographic imaging (ECGI) generates electrophysiological (EP) biomarkers while cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging provides data about myocardial structure, function and tissue substrate. Combining this information in one examination is desirable but requires an affordable, reusable, and high-throughput solution. We therefore developed the CMR-ECGI vest and carried out this technical development study to assess its feasibility and repeatability in vivo. METHODS: CMR was prospectively performed at 3T on participants after collecting surface potentials using the locally designed and fabricated 256-lead ECGI vest. Epicardial maps were reconstructed to generate local EP parameters such as activation time (AT), repolarization time (RT) and activation recovery intervals (ARI). 20 intra- and inter-observer and 8 scan re-scan repeatability tests. RESULTS: 77 participants were recruited: 27 young healthy volunteers (HV, 38.9 ± 8.5 years, 35% male) and 50 older persons (77.0 ± 0.1 years, 52% male). CMR-ECGI was achieved in all participants using the same reusable, washable vest without complications. Intra- and inter-observer variability was low (correlation coefficients [rs] across unipolar electrograms = 0.99 and 0.98 respectively) and scan re-scan repeatability was high (rs between 0.81 and 0.93). Compared to young HV, older persons had significantly longer RT (296.8 vs 289.3 ms, p = 0.002), ARI (249.8 vs 235.1 ms, p = 0.002) and local gradients of AT, RT and ARI (0.40 vs 0.34 ms/mm, p = 0,01; 0.92 vs 0.77 ms/mm, p = 0.03; and 1.12 vs 0.92 ms/mm, p = 0.01 respectively). CONCLUSION: Our high-throughput CMR-ECGI solution is feasible and shows good reproducibility in younger and older participants. This new technology is now scalable for high throughput research to provide novel insights into arrhythmogenesis and potentially pave the way for more personalised risk stratification. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: Title: Multimorbidity Life-Course Approach to Myocardial Health-A Cardiac Sub-Study of the MRC National Survey of Health and Development (NSHD) (MyoFit46). National Clinical Trials (NCT) number: NCT05455125. URL: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05455125?term=MyoFit&draw=2&rank=1.

Accelerated DNA methylation age plays a role in the impact of cardiovascular risk factors on the human heart.

BACKGROUND: DNA methylation (DNAm) age acceleration (AgeAccel) and cardiac age by 12-lead advanced electrocardiography (A-ECG) are promising biomarkers of biological and cardiac aging, respectively. We aimed to explore the relationships between DNAm age and A-ECG heart age and to understand the extent to which DNAm AgeAccel relates to cardiovascular (CV) risk factors in a British birth cohort from 1946. RESULTS: We studied four DNAm ages (AgeHannum, AgeHorvath, PhenoAge, and GrimAge) and their corresponding AgeAccel. Outcomes were the results from two publicly available ECG-based cardiac age scores: the Bayesian A-ECG-based heart age score of Lindow et al. 2022 and the deep neural network (DNN) ECG-based heart age score of Ribeiro et al. 2020. DNAm AgeAccel was also studied relative to results from two logistic regression-based A-ECG disease scores, one for left ventricular (LV) systolic dysfunction (LVSD), and one for LV electrical remodeling (LVER). Generalized linear models were used to explore the extent to which any associations between biological cardiometabolic risk factors (body mass index, hypertension, diabetes, high cholesterol, previous cardiovascular disease [CVD], and any CV risk factor) and the ECG-based outcomes are mediated by DNAm AgeAccel. We derived the total effects, average causal mediation effects (ACMEs), average direct effects (ADEs), and the proportion mediated [PM] with their 95% confidence intervals [CIs]. 498 participants (all 60-64 years) were included, with the youngest ECG heart age being 27 and the oldest 90. When exploring the associations between cardiometabolic risk factors and Bayesian A-ECG cardiac age, AgeAccelPheno appears to be a partial mediator, as ACME was 0.23 years [0.01, 0.52] p = 0.028 (i.e., PM≈18%) for diabetes, 0.34 [0.03, 0.74] p = 0.024 (i.e., PM≈15%) for high cholesterol, and 0.34 [0.03, 0.74] p = 0.024 (PM≈15%) for any CV risk factor. Similarly, AgeAccelGrim mediates ≈30% of the relationship between diabetes or high cholesterol and the DNN ECG-based heart age. When exploring the link between cardiometabolic risk factors and the A-ECG-based LVSD and LVER scores, it appears that AgeAccelPheno or AgeAccelGrim mediate 10-40% of these associations. CONCLUSION: By the age of 60, participants with accelerated DNA methylation appear to have older, weaker, and more electrically impaired hearts. We show that the harmful effects of CV risk factors on cardiac age and health, appear to be partially mediated by DNAm AgeAccelPheno and AgeAccelGrim. This highlights the need to further investigate the potential cardioprotective effects of selective DNA methyltransferases modulators.

A population-based study of 92 clinically recognized risk factors for heart failure: co-occurrence, prognosis and preventive potential.

AIMS: Primary prevention strategies for heart failure (HF) have had limited success, possibly due to a wide range of underlying risk factors (RFs). Systematic evaluations of the prognostic burden and preventive potential across this wide range of risk factors are lacking. We aimed at estimating evidence, prevalence and co-occurrence for primary prevention and impact on prognosis of RFs for incident HF. METHODS AND RESULTS: We systematically reviewed trials and observational evidence of primary HF prevention across 92 putative aetiologic RFs for HF identified from US and European clinical practice guidelines. We identified 170 885 individuals aged ≥30 years with incident HF from 1997 to 2017, using linked primary and secondary care UK electronic health records (EHR) and rule-based phenotypes (ICD-10, Read Version 2, OPCS-4 procedure and medication codes) for each of 92 RFs. Only 10/92 factors had high quality observational evidence for association with incident HF; 7 had effective randomized controlled trial (RCT)-based interventions for HF prevention (RCT-HF), and 6 for cardiovascular disease prevention, but not HF (RCT-CVD), and the remainder had no RCT-based preventive interventions (RCT-0). We were able to map 91/92 risk factors to EHR using 5961 terms, and 88/91 factors were represented by at least one patient. In the 5 years prior to HF diagnosis, 44.3% had ≥4 RFs. By RCT evidence, the most common RCT-HF RFs were hypertension (48.5%), stable angina (34.9%), unstable angina (16.8%), myocardial infarction (15.8%), and diabetes (15.1%); RCT-CVD RFs were smoking (46.4%) and obesity (29.9%); and RCT-0 RFs were atrial arrhythmias (17.2%), cancer (16.5%), heavy alcohol intake (14.9%). Mortality at 1 year varied across all 91 factors (lowest: pregnancy-related hormonal disorder 4.2%; highest: phaeochromocytoma 73.7%). Among new HF cases, 28.5% had no RCT-HF RFs and 38.6% had no RCT-CVD RFs. 15.6% had either no RF or only RCT-0 RFs. CONCLUSION: One in six individuals with HF have no recorded RFs or RFs without trials. We provide a systematic map of primary preventive opportunities across a wide range of RFs for HF, demonstrating a high burden of co-occurrence and the need for trials tackling multiple RFs.

Data-driven identification of ageing-related diseases from electronic health records.

Reducing the burden of late-life morbidity requires an understanding of the mechanisms of ageing-related diseases (ARDs), defined as diseases that accumulate with increasing age. This has been hampered by the lack of formal criteria to identify ARDs. Here, we present a framework to identify ARDs using two complementary methods consisting of unsupervised machine learning and actuarial techniques, which we applied to electronic health records (EHRs) from 3,009,048 individuals in England using primary care data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) linked to the Hospital Episode Statistics admitted patient care dataset between 1 April 2010 and 31 March 2015 (mean age 49.7 years (s.d. 18.6), 51% female, 70% white ethnicity). We grouped 278 high-burden diseases into nine main clusters according to their patterns of disease onset, using a hierarchical agglomerative clustering algorithm. Four of these clusters, encompassing 207 diseases spanning diverse organ systems and clinical specialties, had rates of disease onset that clearly increased with chronological age. However, the ages of onset for these four clusters were strikingly different, with median age of onset 82 years (IQR 82-83) for Cluster 1, 77 years (IQR 75-77) for Cluster 2, 69 years (IQR 66-71) for Cluster 3 and 57 years (IQR 54-59) for Cluster 4. Fitting to ageing-related actuarial models confirmed that the vast majority of these 207 diseases had a high probability of being ageing-related. Cardiovascular diseases and cancers were highly represented, while benign neoplastic, skin and psychiatric conditions were largely absent from the four ageing-related clusters. Our framework identifies and clusters ARDs and can form the basis for fundamental and translational research into ageing pathways.

Prevalence, incidence, and outcomes across cardiovascular diseases in homeless individuals using national linked electronic health records.

AIMS: The risk and burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) are higher in homeless than in housed individuals but population-based analyses are lacking. The aim of this study was to investigate prevalence, incidence and outcomes across a range of specific CVDs among homeless individuals. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using linked UK primary care electronic health records (EHRs) and validated phenotypes, we identified homeless individuals aged ≥16 years between 1998 and 2019, and age- and sex-matched housed controls in a 1:5 ratio. For 12 CVDs (stable angina; unstable angina; myocardial infarction; sudden cardiac death or cardiac arrest; unheralded coronary death; heart failure; transient ischaemic attack; ischaemic stroke; subarachnoid haemorrhage; intracerebral haemorrhage; peripheral arterial disease; abdominal aortic aneurysm), we estimated prevalence, incidence, and 1-year mortality post-diagnosis, comparing homeless and housed groups. We identified 8492 homeless individuals (32 134 matched housed individuals). Comorbidities and risk factors were more prevalent in homeless people, e.g. smoking: 78.1% vs. 48.3% and atrial fibrillation: 9.9% vs. 8.6%, P < 0.001. CVD prevalence (11.6% vs. 6.5%), incidence (14.7 vs. 8.1 per 1000 person-years), and 1-year mortality risk [adjusted hazard ratio 1.64, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.29-2.08, P < 0.001] were higher, and onset was earlier (difference 4.6, 95% CI 2.8-6.3 years, P < 0.001), in homeless, compared with housed people. Homeless individuals had higher CVD incidence in all three arterial territories than housed people. CONCLUSION: CVD in homeless individuals has high prevalence, incidence, and 1-year mortality risk post-diagnosis with earlier onset, and high burden of risk factors. Inclusion health and social care strategies should reflect this high preventable and treatable burden, which is increasingly important in the current COVID-19 context.

Association of Factor V Leiden With Subsequent Atherothrombotic Events: A GENIUS-CHD Study of Individual Participant Data.

BACKGROUND: Studies examining the role of factor V Leiden among patients at higher risk of atherothrombotic events, such as those with established coronary heart disease (CHD), are lacking. Given that coagulation is involved in the thrombus formation stage on atherosclerotic plaque rupture, we hypothesized that factor V Leiden may be a stronger risk factor for atherothrombotic events in patients with established CHD. METHODS: We performed an individual-level meta-analysis including 25 prospective studies (18 cohorts, 3 case-cohorts, 4 randomized trials) from the GENIUS-CHD (Genetics of Subsequent Coronary Heart Disease) consortium involving patients with established CHD at baseline. Participating studies genotyped factor V Leiden status and shared risk estimates for the outcomes of interest using a centrally developed statistical code with harmonized definitions across studies. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to obtain age- and sex-adjusted estimates. The obtained estimates were pooled using fixed-effect meta-analysis. The primary outcome was composite of myocardial infarction and CHD death. Secondary outcomes included any stroke, ischemic stroke, coronary revascularization, cardiovascular mortality, and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: The studies included 69 681 individuals of whom 3190 (4.6%) were either heterozygous or homozygous (n=47) carriers of factor V Leiden. Median follow-up per study ranged from 1.0 to 10.6 years. A total of 20 studies with 61 147 participants and 6849 events contributed to analyses of the primary outcome. Factor V Leiden was not associated with the combined outcome of myocardial infarction and CHD death (hazard ratio, 1.03 [95% CI, 0.92-1.16]; I2=28%; P-heterogeneity=0.12). Subgroup analysis according to baseline characteristics or strata of traditional cardiovascular risk factors did not show relevant differences. Similarly, risk estimates for the secondary outcomes including stroke, coronary revascularization, cardiovascular mortality, and all-cause mortality were also close to identity. CONCLUSIONS: Factor V Leiden was not associated with increased risk of subsequent atherothrombotic events and mortality in high-risk participants with established and treated CHD. Routine assessment of factor V Leiden status is unlikely to improve atherothrombotic events risk stratification in this population.

A chronological map of 308 physical and mental health conditions from 4 million individuals in the English National Health Service.

Background: To effectively prevent, detect, and treat health conditions that affect people during their lifecourse, health-care professionals and researchers need to know which sections of the population are susceptible to which health conditions and at which ages. Hence, we aimed to map the course of human health by identifying the 50 most common health conditions in each decade of life and estimating the median age at first diagnosis. Methods: We developed phenotyping algorithms and codelists for physical and mental health conditions that involve intensive use of health-care resources. Individuals older than 1 year were included in the study if their primary-care and hospital-admission records met research standards set by the Clinical Practice Research Datalink and they had been registered in a general practice in England contributing up-to-standard data for at least 1 year during the study period. We used linked records of individuals from the CALIBER platform to calculate the sex-standardised cumulative incidence for these conditions by 10-year age groups between April 1, 2010, and March 31, 2015. We also derived the median age at diagnosis and prevalence estimates stratified by age, sex, and ethnicity (black, white, south Asian) over the study period from the primary-care and secondary-care records of patients. Findings: We developed case definitions for 308 disease phenotypes. We used records of 2 784 138 patients for the calculation of cumulative incidence and of 3 872 451 patients for the calculation of period prevalence and median age at diagnosis of these conditions. Conditions that first gained prominence at key stages of life were: atopic conditions and infections that led to hospital admission in children (<10 years); acne and menstrual disorders in the teenage years (10-19 years); mental health conditions, obesity, and migraine in individuals aged 20-29 years; soft-tissue disorders and gastro-oesophageal reflux disease in individuals aged 30-39 years; dyslipidaemia, hypertension, and erectile dysfunction in individuals aged 40-59 years; cancer, osteoarthritis, benign prostatic hyperplasia, cataract, diverticular disease, type 2 diabetes, and deafness in individuals aged 60-79 years; and atrial fibrillation, dementia, acute and chronic kidney disease, heart failure, ischaemic heart disease, anaemia, and osteoporosis in individuals aged 80 years or older. Black or south-Asian individuals were diagnosed earlier than white individuals for 258 (84%) of the 308 conditions. Bone fractures and atopic conditions were recorded earlier in male individuals, whereas female individuals were diagnosed at younger ages with nutritional anaemias, tubulointerstitial nephritis, and urinary disorders. Interpretation: We have produced the first chronological map of human health with cumulative-incidence and period-prevalence estimates for multiple morbidities in parallel from birth to advanced age. This can guide clinicians, policy makers, and researchers on how to formulate differential diagnoses, allocate resources, and target research priorities on the basis of the knowledge of who gets which diseases when. We have published our phenotyping algorithms on the CALIBER open-access Portal which will facilitate future research by providing a curated list of reusable case definitions. Funding: Wellcome Trust, National Institute for Health Research, Medical Research Council, Arthritis Research UK, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorates, Department of Health and Social Care (England), Health and Social Care Research and Development Division (Welsh Government), Public Health Agency (Northern Ireland), Economic and Social Research Council, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, National Institute for Social Care and Health Research, and The Alan Turing Institute.

Preeclampsia and Cardiovascular Disease in a Large UK Pregnancy Cohort of Linked Electronic Health Records: A CALIBER Study.

BACKGROUND: The associations between pregnancy hypertensive disorders and common cardiovascular disorders have not been investigated at scale in a contemporaneous population. We aimed to investigate the association between preeclampsia, hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, and subsequent diagnosis of 12 different cardiovascular disorders. METHODS: We used linked electronic health records from 1997 to 2016 to recreate a UK population-based cohort of 1.3 million women, mean age at delivery 28 years, with nearly 1.9 million completed pregnancies. We used multivariable Cox models to determine the associations between hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, and preeclampsia alone (term and preterm), with 12 cardiovascular disorders in addition to chronic hypertension. We estimated the cumulative incidence of a composite end point of any cardiovascular disorder according to preeclampsia exposure. RESULTS: During the 20-year study period, 18 624 incident cardiovascular disorders were observed, 65% of which had occurred in women under 40 years. Compared to women without hypertension in pregnancy, women who had 1 or more pregnancies affected by preeclampsia had a hazard ratio of 1.9 (95% confidence interval 1.53-2.35) for any stroke, 1.67 (1.54-1.81) for cardiac atherosclerotic events, 1.82 (1.34-2.46) for peripheral events, 2.13 (1.64-2.76) for heart failure, 1.73 (1.38-2.16) for atrial fibrillation, 2.12 (1.49-2.99) for cardiovascular deaths, and 4.47 (4.32-4.62) for chronic hypertension. Differences in cumulative incidence curves, according to preeclampsia status, were apparent within 1 year of the first index pregnancy. Similar patterns of association were observed for hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, while preterm preeclampsia conferred slightly further elevated risks. CONCLUSIONS: Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, including preeclampsia, have a similar pattern of increased risk across all 12 cardiovascular disorders and chronic hypertension, and the impact was evident soon after pregnancy. Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy should be considered as a natural screening tool for cardiovascular events, enabling cardiovascular risk prevention through national initiatives.

UK phenomics platform for developing and validating electronic health record phenotypes: CALIBER.

OBJECTIVE: Electronic health records (EHRs) are a rich source of information on human diseases, but the information is variably structured, fragmented, curated using different coding systems, and collected for purposes other than medical research. We describe an approach for developing, validating, and sharing reproducible phenotypes from national structured EHR in the United Kingdom with applications for translational research. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We implemented a rule-based phenotyping framework, with up to 6 approaches of validation. We applied our framework to a sample of 15 million individuals in a national EHR data source (population-based primary care, all ages) linked to hospitalization and death records in England. Data comprised continuous measurements (for example, blood pressure; medication information; coded diagnoses, symptoms, procedures, and referrals), recorded using 5 controlled clinical terminologies: (1) read (primary care, subset of SNOMED-CT [Systematized Nomenclature of Medicine Clinical Terms]), (2) International Classification of Diseases-Ninth Revision and Tenth Revision (secondary care diagnoses and cause of mortality), (3) Office of Population Censuses and Surveys Classification of Surgical Operations and Procedures, Fourth Revision (hospital surgical procedures), and (4) DM+D prescription codes. RESULTS: Using the CALIBER phenotyping framework, we created algorithms for 51 diseases, syndromes, biomarkers, and lifestyle risk factors and provide up to 6 validation approaches. The EHR phenotypes are curated in the open-access CALIBER Portal (https://www.caliberresearch.org/portal) and have been used by 40 national and international research groups in 60 peer-reviewed publications. CONCLUSIONS: We describe a UK EHR phenomics approach within the CALIBER EHR data platform with initial evidence of validity and use, as an important step toward international use of UK EHR data for health research.

Phenotyping UK Electronic Health Records from 15 Million Individuals for Precision Medicine: The CALIBER Resource.

Electronic health records (EHR) are increasingly being used for observational research at scale. In the UK, we have established the CALIBER research resource which utilizes national primary and hospital EHR data sources and enables researchers to create and validate longitudinal disease phenotypes at scale. In this work, we will describe the core components of the resource and provide results from three exemplar research studies on high-resolution epidemiology, disease risk prediction and subtype discovery which demonstrate both the opportunities and challenges of using EHR for research.

Development and validation of a prediction model to estimate the risk of liver cirrhosis in primary care patients with abnormal liver blood test results: protocol for an electronic health record study in Clinical Practice Research Datalink.

BACKGROUND: Driven by alcohol consumption and obesity, the prevalence of non-viral liver disease in the UK is increasing. Due to its silent and slow nature, the progression of liver disease is currently unpredictable and challenging to monitor. The latest National Institute for Health Care Excellence cirrhosis guidelines call for a validated risk tool that would allow general practitioners to identify patients that are at high risk of developing cirrhosis. METHODS: Using linked electronic health records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (a database of > 10 million patients in England), we aim to develop and validate a prediction model to estimate 2-, 5- and 10-year risk of cirrhosis. The model will provide individualised cirrhosis risk predictions for adult primary care patients, free from underlying liver disease or viral hepatitis infection, whose liver blood test results come back abnormal. We will externally validate the model in patients from 30 further Clinical Practice Research Datalink general practices in England. DISCUSSION: The prediction model will provide estimates of cirrhosis risk in primary care patients with abnormal liver blood test results to guide referral to secondary care, to identify patients who are in serious need of preventative health interventions and to help reassure patients at low risk of cirrhosis in the long term.

Subsequent Event Risk in Individuals With Established Coronary Heart Disease.

BACKGROUND: The Genetics of Subsequent Coronary Heart Disease (GENIUS-CHD) consortium was established to facilitate discovery and validation of genetic variants and biomarkers for risk of subsequent CHD events, in individuals with established CHD. METHODS: The consortium currently includes 57 studies from 18 countries, recruiting 185 614 participants with either acute coronary syndrome, stable CHD, or a mixture of both at baseline. All studies collected biological samples and followed-up study participants prospectively for subsequent events. RESULTS: Enrollment into the individual studies took place between 1985 to present day with a duration of follow-up ranging from 9 months to 15 years. Within each study, participants with CHD are predominantly of self-reported European descent (38%-100%), mostly male (44%-91%) with mean ages at recruitment ranging from 40 to 75 years. Initial feasibility analyses, using a federated analysis approach, yielded expected associations between age (hazard ratio, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.14-1.16) per 5-year increase, male sex (hazard ratio, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.13-1.21) and smoking (hazard ratio, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.35-1.51) with risk of subsequent CHD death or myocardial infarction and differing associations with other individual and composite cardiovascular endpoints. CONCLUSIONS: GENIUS-CHD is a global collaboration seeking to elucidate genetic and nongenetic determinants of subsequent event risk in individuals with established CHD, to improve residual risk prediction and identify novel drug targets for secondary prevention. Initial analyses demonstrate the feasibility and reliability of a federated analysis approach. The consortium now plans to initiate and test novel hypotheses as well as supporting replication and validation analyses for other investigators.

Association of Chromosome 9p21 With Subsequent Coronary Heart Disease Events.

BACKGROUND: Genetic variation at chromosome 9p21 is a recognized risk factor for coronary heart disease (CHD). However, its effect on disease progression and subsequent events is unclear, raising questions about its value for stratification of residual risk. METHODS: A variant at chromosome 9p21 (rs1333049) was tested for association with subsequent events during follow-up in 103 357 Europeans with established CHD at baseline from the GENIUS-CHD (Genetics of Subsequent Coronary Heart Disease) Consortium (73.1% male, mean age 62.9 years). The primary outcome, subsequent CHD death or myocardial infarction (CHD death/myocardial infarction), occurred in 13 040 of the 93 115 participants with available outcome data. Effect estimates were compared with case/control risk obtained from the CARDIoGRAMplusC4D consortium (Coronary Artery Disease Genome-wide Replication and Meta-analysis [CARDIoGRAM] plus The Coronary Artery Disease [C4D] Genetics) including 47 222 CHD cases and 122 264 controls free of CHD. RESULTS: Meta-analyses revealed no significant association between chromosome 9p21 and the primary outcome of CHD death/myocardial infarction among those with established CHD at baseline (GENIUS-CHD odds ratio, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.99-1.05). This contrasted with a strong association in CARDIoGRAMPlusC4D odds ratio 1.20; 95% CI, 1.18-1.22; P for interaction <0.001 compared with the GENIUS-CHD estimate. Similarly, no clear associations were identified for additional subsequent outcomes, including all-cause death, although we found a modest positive association between chromosome 9p21 and subsequent revascularization (odds ratio, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.04-1.09). CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to studies comparing individuals with CHD to disease-free controls, we found no clear association between genetic variation at chromosome 9p21 and risk of subsequent acute CHD events when all individuals had CHD at baseline. However, the association with subsequent revascularization may support the postulated mechanism of chromosome 9p21 for promoting atheroma development.

Risk factors for incident heart failure in age- and sex-specific strata: a population-based cohort using linked electronic health records.

AIMS: Several risk factors for incident heart failure (HF) have been previously identified, however large electronic health records (EHR) datasets may provide the opportunity to examine the consistency of risk factors across different subgroups from the general population. METHODS AND RESULTS: We used linked EHR data from 2000 to 2010 as part of the UK-based CALIBER resource to select a cohort of 871 687 individuals 55 years or older and free of HF at baseline. The primary endpoint was the first record of HF from primary or secondary care. Cox proportional hazards analysis was used to estimate hazard ratios for associations between risk factors and incident HF, separately for men and women and by age category: 55-64, 65-74, and > 75 years. During 5.8 years of median follow-up, a total of 47 987 incident HF cases were recorded. Age, social deprivation, smoking, sedentary lifestyle, diabetes, atrial fibrillation, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, body mass index, haemoglobin, total white blood cell count and creatinine were associated with HF. Smoking, atrial fibrillation and diabetes showed stronger associations with incident HF in women compared to men. CONCLUSION: We confirmed associations of several risk factors with HF in this large population-based cohort across age and sex subgroups. Mainly modifiable risk factors and comorbidities are strongly associated with incident HF, highlighting the importance of preventive strategies targeting such risk factors for HF.

Methods for enhancing the reproducibility of biomedical research findings using electronic health records.

BACKGROUND: The ability of external investigators to reproduce published scientific findings is critical for the evaluation and validation of biomedical research by the wider community. However, a substantial proportion of health research using electronic health records (EHR), data collected and generated during clinical care, is potentially not reproducible mainly due to the fact that the implementation details of most data preprocessing, cleaning, phenotyping and analysis approaches are not systematically made available or shared. With the complexity, volume and variety of electronic health record data sources made available for research steadily increasing, it is critical to ensure that scientific findings from EHR data are reproducible and replicable by researchers. Reporting guidelines, such as RECORD and STROBE, have set a solid foundation by recommending a series of items for researchers to include in their research outputs. Researchers however often lack the technical tools and methodological approaches to actuate such recommendations in an efficient and sustainable manner. RESULTS: In this paper, we review and propose a series of methods and tools utilized in adjunct scientific disciplines that can be used to enhance the reproducibility of research using electronic health records and enable researchers to report analytical approaches in a transparent manner. Specifically, we discuss the adoption of scientific software engineering principles and best-practices such as test-driven development, source code revision control systems, literate programming and the standardization and re-use of common data management and analytical approaches. CONCLUSION: The adoption of such approaches will enable scientists to systematically document and share EHR analytical workflows and increase the reproducibility of biomedical research using such complex data sources.

Relations between lipoprotein(a) concentrations, LPA genetic variants, and the risk of mortality in patients with established coronary heart disease: a molecular and genetic association study.

BACKGROUND: Lipoprotein(a) concentrations in plasma are associated with cardiovascular risk in the general population. Whether lipoprotein(a) concentrations or LPA genetic variants predict long-term mortality in patients with established coronary heart disease remains less clear. METHODS: We obtained data from 3313 patients with established coronary heart disease in the Ludwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health (LURIC) study. We tested associations of tertiles of lipoprotein(a) concentration in plasma and two LPA single-nucleotide polymorphisms ([SNPs] rs10455872 and rs3798220) with all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality by Cox regression analysis and with severity of disease by generalised linear modelling, with and without adjustment for age, sex, diabetes diagnosis, systolic blood pressure, BMI, smoking status, estimated glomerular filtration rate, LDL-cholesterol concentration, and use of lipid-lowering therapy. Results for plasma lipoprotein(a) concentrations were validated in five independent studies involving 10 195 patients with established coronary heart disease. Results for genetic associations were replicated through large-scale collaborative analysis in the GENIUS-CHD consortium, comprising 106 353 patients with established coronary heart disease and 19 332 deaths in 22 studies or cohorts. FINDINGS: The median follow-up was 9·9 years. Increased severity of coronary heart disease was associated with lipoprotein(a) concentrations in plasma in the highest tertile (adjusted hazard radio [HR] 1·44, 95% CI 1·14-1·83) and the presence of either LPA SNP (1·88, 1·40-2·53). No associations were found in LURIC with all-cause mortality (highest tertile of lipoprotein(a) concentration in plasma 0·95, 0·81-1·11 and either LPA SNP 1·10, 0·92-1·31) or cardiovascular mortality (0·99, 0·81-1·2 and 1·13, 0·90-1·40, respectively) or in the validation studies. INTERPRETATION: In patients with prevalent coronary heart disease, lipoprotein(a) concentrations and genetic variants showed no associations with mortality. We conclude that these variables are not useful risk factors to measure to predict progression to death after coronary heart disease is established. FUNDING: Seventh Framework Programme for Research and Technical Development (AtheroRemo and RiskyCAD), INTERREG IV Oberrhein Programme, Deutsche Nierenstiftung, Else-Kroener Fresenius Foundation, Deutsche Stiftung für Herzforschung, Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, Saarland University, German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, Willy Robert Pitzer Foundation, and Waldburg-Zeil Clinics Isny.

ABCC5 transporter is a novel type 2 diabetes susceptibility gene in European and African American populations.

Numerous functional studies have implicated PARL in relation to type 2 diabetes (T2D). We hypothesised that conflicting human association studies may be due to neighbouring causal variants being in linkage disequilibrium (LD) with PARL. We conducted a comprehensive candidate gene study of the extended LD genomic region that includes PARL and transporter ABCC5 using three data sets (two European and one African American), in relation to healthy glycaemic variation, visceral fat accumulation and T2D disease. We observed no evidence for previously reported T2D association with Val262Leu or PARL using array and fine-map genomic and expression data. By contrast, we observed strong evidence of T2D association with ABCC5 (intron 26) for European and African American samples (P = 3E-07) and with ABCC5 adipose expression in Europeans [odds ratio (OR) = 3.8, P = 2E-04]. The genomic location estimate for the ABCC5 functional variant, associated with all phenotypes and expression data (P = 1E-11), was identical for all samples (at Chr3q 185,136 kb B36), indicating that the risk variant is an expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) with increased expression conferring risk of disease. That the association with T2D is observed in populations of disparate ancestry suggests the variant is a ubiquitous risk factor for T2D.

Relationship between dry eye symptoms and pain sensitivity.

IMPORTANCE: Dry eye disease (DED) is common, but little is known about factors contributing to symptoms of dry eye, given the poor correlation between these symptoms and objective signs at the ocular surface. OBJECTIVE: To explore whether pain sensitivity plays a role in patients' experience of DED symptoms. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A population-based cross-sectional study of 1635 female twin volunteers, aged 20 to 83 years, from the TwinsUK adult registry. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Dry eye disease was diagnosed if participants had at least 1 of the following: (1) a diagnosis of DED by a clinician, (2) the prescription of artificial tears, and/or (3) symptoms of dry eyes for at least 3 months. A subset of 689 women completed the Ocular Surface Disease Index (OSDI) questionnaire. Quantitative sensory testing using heat stimulus on the forearm was used to assess pain sensitivity (heat pain threshold [HPT]) and pain tolerance (heat pain suprathreshold [HPST]). RESULTS: Of the 1622 participants included, 438 (27.0%) were categorized as having DED. Women with DED showed a significantly lower HPT (P = .03) and HPST (P = .003)--and hence had higher pain sensitivity--than those without DED. A strong significant association between the presence of pain symptoms on the OSDI and the HPT and HPST was found (P = .008 for the HPT and P = .003 for the HPST). In addition, participants with an HPT below the median had DED pain symptoms almost twice as often as those with an HPT above the median (31.2% vs 20.5%; odds ratio, 1.76; 95% CI, 1.15-2.71; P = .01). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: High pain sensitivity and low pain tolerance are associated with symptoms of DED, adding to previous associations of the severity of tear insufficiency, cell damage, and psychological factors. Management of DED symptoms is complex, and physicians need to consider the holistic picture, rather than simply treating ocular signs.