Disease-modifying treatments for multiple sclerosis have not affected the incidence of neoplasms in clinical trials over 3 decades: a meta-analysis with meta-regression.

OBJECTIVE: Our study aimed to estimate the incidence of neoplasms in clinical trials of DMTs for MS and to test the hypothesis that DMTs increase the risk of neoplasms in the duration of MS randomized controlled trials (RCTs). METHODS: Data were extracted from 42 RCTs of DMTs published between 1991 and 2020. The incidence rate (IR) of neoplasms was estimated by pooling the neoplasms in the active and placebo-treatment arm per patient-year. The neoplasm incidence rate ratio (IRR) of active over placebo-treatment arms was used as measure of the effect of DMTs on the risk of developing neoplasms. RESULTS: The meta-analysis included 10,638 placebo and 16,360 active-treatment arm patients. A non-significant pooled neoplasm incidence rate ratio (IRR: 1.0797; 95% CI: 0.8281 to 1.4077; P = 0.5711) with no heterogeneity (I2 = 0%) was observed in active over placebo-treatment groups from 1991 to 2020. We found a significant association between the incidence of neoplasms and the year of publication in both active and placebo arms of RCTs. Trials of sequestrating and depletive DMTs were associated with significantly higher incidence of neoplasms in both active and placebo-treated arms compared to immunomodulatory treatment trials. CONCLUSIONS: Our study indicates that treatment with DMTs has not modified the risk of neoplasms in MS clinical trials from 1991 to 2020, which may reflect a low carcinogenic potential of DMTs and/or that the neoplasia latencies far exceed the typical MS trial observation periods.

Anti-CGRP monoclonal antibodies for migraine prevention: A systematic review and likelihood to help or harm analysis.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVE: Monoclonal antibodies targeting the calcitonin gene-related peptide pathway (anti-CGRP mAbs) have shown promising efficacy in randomised clinical trials for the prevention of episodic and chronic migraine, but no head-to-head comparisons with established treatments are available. We aimed to examine absolute differences in benefit-risk ratios between anti-CGRP mAbs, topiramate and propranolol for the prevention of episodic migraine and between anti-CGRP mAbs, topiramate and onabotulinumtoxinA for the prevention of chronic migraine using a likelihood to help versus harm analysis. METHODS: The number of patients needed to be treated for a patient to achieve ≥ 50% reduction in migraine days (NNTB50%) was used as an effect size metric of efficacy. The number of patients needed to be treated for a patient to experience an adverse event that led to treatment discontinuation (NNTHD-AE) was used as a measure of risk. Likelihood to help versus harm values - which are the ratios of NNTH:NNTB - were calculated using data from phase 3 randomised clinical trials. RESULTS: All agents tested were more likely to be beneficial than harmful (likelihood to help versus harm > 1) with the exception of topiramate at 200 mg per day for the prevention of episodic migraine. Anti-CGRP mAbs in all tested doses had higher LHH values than propranolol or topiramate for episodic migraine and onabotulinumtoxinA or topiramate for chronic migraine prevention. Fremanezumab had the highest LHH ratio in episodic migraine and galcanezumab in chronic migraine. CONCLUSION: This analysis showed that anti-CGRP mAbs exhibit a more favourable benefit-risk ratio than established treatments for episodic and chronic migraine. Head-to-head studies are needed to confirm these results.

Placebo and nocebo phenomena in anti- CGRP monoclonal antibody trials for migraine prevention: a meta-analysis.

High placebo and low nocebo phenomena mirror high positive expectations for a novel treatment, among other reasons. In a meta-analysis aimed to identify placebo and nocebo phenomena in the placebo-controlled randomized trials (RCTs) with the monoclonal antibodies targeting the calcitonin gene-related peptide pathway (anti-CGRP mAbs) all the placebo-treated patients were pooled and compared with the placebo-treated patients in RCTs with topiramate and onabotulinum toxin A (OBTA). In episodic migraine (EM), the proportion of placebo-treated patients who achieved the 50% responder rate (placebo) was 32.7% (95% CI 28.6%-37.0%) in anti-CGRP mAbs vs. 24.4% (95% CI 20.5%-28.5%) in topiramate trials. The proportion of dropouts due to adverse events in placebo-treated patients (nocebo) was 1.9% (95% CI 1.4%-2.6%) in anti-CGRP mAbs vs. 9.9% (95% CI 7.7%-12.3%) in topiramate RCTs. In chronic migraine (CM), the placebo 50% responder rate was 23.6% (95% CI 11.2%-38.8%) in anti-CGRP mAbs RCTs vs. 36.4% (95% CI 32.6%-39.3%) in RCTs with OBTA. The nocebo dropout in anti-CGRP mAbs and OBTA RCTs was 1.4% (95% CI 0.8%-2.1%) and 0.9 (95% CI 0.3%-1.7%), respectively. The stronger placebo and weaker nocebo phenomena in RCTs with anti-CGRP mAbs vs. those with topiramate in the prophylaxis of EM, may decisively determine anti-CGRP mAbs treatment success. No differences were detected between the anti-CGRP mAbs and OBTA in the treatment of CM.