Expert Elicitation To Estimate the Feed Safety Impact of Criteria Included in the Canadian Food Inspection Agency Risk Assessment Model for Feed Mills.

ABSTRACT: The Canadian Food Inspection Agency is developing an Establishment-based Risk Assessment (ERA) model for commercial and on-farm mills involved in the manufacture, storage, packaging, labeling, or distribution of livestock feed (ERA-Feed Mill model). This model will help inform the allocation of inspection resources on the basis of feed safety risk, including animal health and food safety risk. In a previous study, 34 risk factors, grouped into inherent, mitigation, and compliance clusters, along with assessment criteria were selected. The objective of this current study was to estimate the relative risk (RR) of the 203 assessment criteria on the basis of the impact on feed safety to design an ERA-Feed Mill model algorithm. Furthermore, the intent of this study was to assess the maximum increase or decrease of risk obtained when multiple criteria belonging to a same cluster were identified in a specific feed mill. To do so, a two-round face-to-face expert elicitation was conducted with 28 Canadian feed experts. Results showed no significant association between respondent profiles (years of experience and work sector) and estimated RR. Uniformity of answers between experts improved between rounds. Criteria having the highest increase in risk (median RR ≥ 4) included the presence of materials prohibited to be fed to ruminants in a facility that produces ruminant feed, the presence of multiple livestock species on-site, and historical noncompliances related to the inspection of the feed mill's process control and end-product control programs. Risk mitigation criteria having the highest impact on decreasing the risk were the implementation of feed safety certifications, the use of dedicated manufacturing lines (prohibited materials or medications), and having a hazard sampling plan in place for finished feed. The median RR assigned to each criterion and cluster will be used to build an algorithm of the Canadian Food Inspection Agency's ERA-Feed Mill model.

Mathematical descriptions of indeterminate growth.

Two models were derived in an effort to better describe the indeterminate nature of growth exhibited by ectotherms. The models are characterized by their non-sigmoidal shape and are based on three assumptions: quantity of growth machinery works at a rate dependent on feed intake; the relationship between growth rate and intake level follows the law of diminishing returns; and growth is irreversible. The Michaelis-Menten and Mitscherlich equations are used in their formulation. To investigate their potential, the models were fitted to six datasets, representing repeated measures of live body weights of two species: rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus). The models were evaluated on the basis of fitting behaviour, examination of residuals, along with measures of goodness-of-fit. Agreement between predicted and observed body weights, and flexibility to mimic growth patterns given varying species and culture conditions, affirm the ability of both models to describe indeterminate growth in fish.

Modelling the ontogeny of ectotherms exhibiting indeterminate growth.

Numerous growth functions exist to describe the ontogeny of animals. Such functions (e.g., von Bertalanffy's equation, thermal-unit growth coefficient) are currently applied to ectotherms even though they fail to provide analytical expressions that adapt to a wide range of fluctuating temperatures. The underlying mechanisms responsible for the ontogeny of ectotherms exhibiting indeterminate growth have not yet been summarised in terms of a simple but meaningful mathematical equation. Here, a growth function is developed, with parameters having physical or biological interpretation that accommodates indeterminate growth under fluctuating temperatures assuming the latter vary seasonally. The equation is derived as a special case of von Bertalanffy's equation providing realistic growth trajectories throughout the ontogeny of several groups of ectotherms (R(2)>0.90). The results suggest that the effect of temperature on growth trajectory supersedes that of reproduction in an environment with fluctuating temperature. Furthermore, values of the allometric weight exponent (0