Interruption of tuberculosis detection and care during the Ebola virus disease epidemic (2014-2015) in Liberia: time-series analyses for 2013-2017.

OBJECTIVE: Interrupted time-series analyses, using 5 years of routinely collected health information system data, were conducted to estimate the magnitude of impact of the 2014-2015 Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic and determine trends in tuberculosis (TB) care services in Liberia. METHODS: A segmented linear regression model was used to generate estimates and predictions for trends for three TB service indicators before, during, and after EVD, from January 2013 to December 2017. RESULTS: It was found that the number of presumptive TB cases declined significantly at the start of the EVD outbreak, with an estimated loss of 3222 cases (95% confidence interval (CI) -5691 to -752; P = 0.014). There was also an estimated loss of 709 cases per quarter post-EVD (95% CI -1346 to -71; P = 0.032). However, over the post-EVD period, quarterly increases were observed in the proportion of smear-positive to presumptive cases (1.45%, 95% CI 0.38% to 2.5%; P = 0.011) and the proportion of treatment success to TB cases evaluated (3.3%, 95% CI 0.82% to 5.79%; P = 0.013). CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that the EVD outbreak (2014-2015) negatively affected TB care services. Rigorous quantitative analyses can be used to assess the magnitude of interruption and advocate for preparedness in settings with limited healthcare capacity.

Clinical and Biochemical Markers of Risk in Uncomplicated Severe Acute Malnutrition.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Use of mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) as a single screening tool for severe acute malnutrition (SAM) assumes that children with a low weight-for-height z score (WHZ) and normal MUAC have lower risks of morbidity and mortality. However, the pathophysiology and functional severity associated with different anthropometric phenotypes of SAM have never been well characterized. We compared clinical characteristics, biochemical features, and health and nutrition histories of nonedematous children with SAM who had (1) low WHZ only, (2) both low WHZ and low MUAC, or (3) low MUAC only. METHODS: In Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, and Liberia, we conducted a multicentric cohort study in uncomplicated, nonedematous children with SAM and low MUAC only (n = 161), low WHZ only (n = 138), or a combination of low MUAC and low WHZ (n = 152). Alongside routine anthropometric measurements, we collected a wide range of critical indicators of clinical and nutritional status and viability; these included serum leptin, an adipocytokine negatively associated with mortality risk in SAM. RESULTS: Median leptin levels at diagnosis were lower in children with low WHZ only (215.8 pg/mL; P < .001) and in those with combined WHZ and MUAC deficits (180.1 pg/mL; P < .001) than in children with low MUAC only (331.50 pg/mL). The same pattern emerged on a wide range of clinical indicators, including signs of severe wasting, dehydration, serum ferritin levels, and caretaker-reported health deterioration, and was replicated across study sites. CONCLUSIONS: Illustrative of the likely heterogeneous functional severity of the different anthropometric phenotypes of SAM, our results confirm the need to retain low WHZ as an independent diagnostic criterion.

Measuring Knowledge of Community Health Workers at the Last Mile in Liberia: Feasibility and Results of Clinical Vignette Assessments.

INTRODUCTION: Community health workers (CHWs) can provide lifesaving treatment for children in remote areas, but high-quality care is essential for effective delivery. Measuring the quality of community-based care in remote areas is logistically challenging. Clinical vignettes have been validated in facility settings as a proxy for competency. We assessed feasibility and effectiveness of clinical vignettes to measure CHW knowledge of integrated community case management (iCCM) in Liberia's national CHW program. METHODS: We developed 3 vignettes to measure knowledge of iCCM illnesses (malaria, diarrhea, and pneumonia) in 4 main areas: assessment, diagnosis, treatment, and caregiver instructions. Trained nurse supervisors administered the vignettes to CHWs in 3 counties in rural Liberia as part of routine program supervision between January and May 2019, collected data on CHW knowledge using a standardized checklist tool, and provided feedback and coaching to CHWs in real time after vignette administration. Proportions of vignettes correctly managed, including illness classification, treatment, and referral where necessary, were calculated. We assessed feasibility, defined as the ability of clinical supervisors to administer the vignettes integrated into their routine activities once per year for each CHW, and effectiveness, defined as the ability of the vignettes to measure the primary outcomes of CHW knowledge of diagnosis and treatment including referrals. RESULTS: We were able to integrate this assessment into routine supervision, facilitate real-time coaching, and collect data on iCCM knowledge among 155 CHWs through delivery of 465 vignettes. Diagnosis including severity was correct in 65%-82% of vignettes. CHWs correctly identified danger signs in 44%-50% of vignettes, correctly proposed referral to the facility in 63% of vignettes including danger signs, and chose correct lifesaving treatment in 23%-65% of vignettes. Both diagnosis and lifesaving treatment rates were highest for malaria and lowest for severe pneumonia. CONCLUSION: Administration of vignettes to assess knowledge of correct iCCM case management was feasible and effective in producing results in this setting. Proportions of correct diagnosis and lifesaving treatment varied, with high proportions for uncomplicated disease, but lower for more severe cases, with accurate recognition of danger signs posing a challenge. Future work includes validation of vignettes for use with CHWs through direct observation, strengthening supportive supervision, and program interventions to address identified knowledge gaps.

The 2014-2015 Ebola virus disease outbreak and primary healthcare delivery in Liberia: Time-series analyses for 2010-2016.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study is to estimate the immediate and lasting effects of the 2014-2015 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak on public-sector primary healthcare delivery in Liberia using 7 years of comprehensive routine health information system data. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We analyzed 10 key primary healthcare indicators before, during, and after the EVD outbreak using 31,836 facility-month service outputs from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2016 across a census of 379 public-sector health facilities in Liberia (excluding Montserrado County). All indicators had statistically significant decreases during the first 4 months of the EVD outbreak, with all indicators having their lowest raw mean outputs in August 2014. Decreases in outputs comparing the end of the initial EVD period (September 2014) to May 2014 (pre-EVD) ranged in magnitude from a 67.3% decrease in measles vaccinations (95% CI: -77.9%, -56.8%, p < 0.001) and a 61.4% decrease in artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) treatments for malaria (95% CI: -69.0%, -53.8%, p < 0.001) to a 35.2% decrease in first antenatal care (ANC) visits (95% CI: -45.8%, -24.7%, p < 0.001) and a 38.5% decrease in medroxyprogesterone acetate doses (95% CI: -47.6%, -29.5%, p < 0.001). Following the nadir of system outputs in August 2014, all indicators showed statistically significant increases from October 2014 to December 2014. All indicators had significant positive trends during the post-EVD period, with every system output exceeding pre-Ebola forecasted trends for 3 consecutive months by November 2016. Health system outputs lost during and after the EVD outbreak were large and sustained for most indicators. Prior to exceeding pre-EVD forecasted trends for 3 months, we estimate statistically significant cumulative losses of -776,110 clinic visits (95% CI: -1,480,896, -101,357, p = 0.030); -24,449 bacille Calmette-Guérin vaccinations (95% CI: -45,947, -2,020, p = 0.032); -9,129 measles vaccinations (95% CI: -12,312, -5,659, p < 0.001); -17,191 postnatal care (PNC) visits within 6 weeks of birth (95% CI: -28,344, -5,775, p = 0.002); and -101,857 ACT malaria treatments (95% CI: -205,839, -2,139, p = 0.044) due to the EVD outbreak. Other outputs showed statistically significant cumulative losses only through December 2014, including losses of -12,941 first pentavalent vaccinations (95% CI: -20,309, -5,527, p = 0.002); -5,122 institutional births (95% CI: -8,767, -1,234, p = 0.003); and -45,024 acute respiratory infections treated (95% CI: -66,185, -24,019, p < 0.001). Compared to pre-EVD forecasted trends, medroxyprogesterone acetate doses and first ANC visits did not show statistically significant net losses. ACT treatment for malaria was the only indicator with an estimated net increase in system outputs through December 2016, showing an excess of +78,583 outputs (95% CI: -309,417, +450,661, p = 0.634) compared to pre-EVD forecasted trends, although this increase was not statistically significant. However, comparing December 2013 to December 2017, ACT malaria cases have increased 49.2% (95% CI: 33.9%, 64.5%, p < 0.001). Compared to pre-EVD forecasted trends, there remains a statistically significant loss of -15,144 PNC visits within 6 weeks (95% CI: -29,453, -787, p = 0.040) through December 2016. CONCLUSIONS: The Liberian public-sector primary healthcare system has made strides towards recovery from the 2014-2015 EVD outbreak. All primary healthcare indicators tracked have recovered to pre-EVD levels as of November 2016. Yet, for most indicators, it took more than 1 year to recover to pre-EVD levels. During this time, large losses of essential primary healthcare services occurred compared to what would have been expected had the EVD outbreak not occurred. The disruption of malaria case management during the EVD outbreak may have resulted in increased malaria cases. Large and sustained investments in public-sector primary care health system strengthening are urgently needed for EVD-affected countries.

Successful Implementation of a Multicountry Clinical Surveillance and Data Collection System for Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa: Findings and Lessons Learned.

BACKGROUND: The 2014 outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa was the largest ever recorded. Starting in September 2014, International Medical Corps (IMC) managed 5 Ebola treatment units (ETUs) in Liberia and Sierra Leone, which cumulatively cared for about 2,500 patients. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patient data collected at the 5 ETUs over 1 year of operations. METHODS: To collect clinical and epidemiological data from the patient care areas, each chart was either manually copied across the fence between the high-risk zone and low-risk zone, imaged across the fence, or imaged in the high-risk zone. Each ETU's data were entered into a separate electronic database, and these were later combined into a single relational database. Lot quality assurance sampling was used to ensure data quality, with reentry of data with high error rates from imaged records. RESULTS: The IMC database contains records on 2,768 patient presentations, including 2,351 patient admissions with full follow-up data. Of the patients admitted, 470 (20.0%) tested positive for EVD, with an overall case fatality ratio (CFR) of 57.0% for EVD-positive patients and 8.1% for EVD-negative patients. Although more men were admitted than women (53.4% vs. 46.6%), a larger proportion of women were diagnosed EVD positive (25.6% vs. 15.2%). Diarrhea, red eyes, contact with an ill person, and funeral attendance were significantly more common in patients with EVD than in those with other diagnoses. Among EVD-positive patients, age was a significant predictor of mortality: the highest CFRs were among children under 5 (89.1%) and adults over 55 (71.4%). DISCUSSION: While several prior reports have documented the experiences of individual ETUs, this study is the first to present data from multiple ETUs across 2 countries run by the same organization with similar clinical protocols. Our experience demonstrates that even in austere settings under difficult conditions, it is possible for humanitarian organizations to collect high-quality clinical and epidemiologic data during a major infectious disease outbreak.