Insights into the quantification and reporting of model-related uncertainty across different disciplines.

Quantifying uncertainty associated with our models is the only way we can express how much we know about any phenomenon. Incomplete consideration of model-based uncertainties can lead to overstated conclusions with real-world impacts in diverse spheres, including conservation, epidemiology, climate science, and policy. Despite these potentially damaging consequences, we still know little about how different fields quantify and report uncertainty. We introduce the "sources of uncertainty" framework, using it to conduct a systematic audit of model-related uncertainty quantification from seven scientific fields, spanning the biological, physical, and political sciences. Our interdisciplinary audit shows no field fully considers all possible sources of uncertainty, but each has its own best practices alongside shared outstanding challenges. We make ten easy-to-implement recommendations to improve the consistency, completeness, and clarity of reporting on model-related uncertainty. These recommendations serve as a guide to best practices across scientific fields and expand our toolbox for high-quality research.

PTSD as a consequence of past conflict experience, recent exposure to violence and economic marginalization in post-conflict contexts: A study from Nepal, Guatemala and Northern Ireland.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to war and conflict increases the risk of mental health problems. Poor living conditions are known to negatively impact mental health. HYPOTHESIS: It is hypothesized that exposure to negative events after armed conflict interacts with past negative experiences, socioeconomic factors and current mental health problems. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was carried out in three contexts of previous internal armed conflict: Nepal, Guatemala and Northern Ireland. Three nationally representative samples were drawn, comprising a net sample of 3,229 respondents. RESULTS: Both recent negative events and past negative events linked to the previous conflicts were found to be associated with elevated risk of post-traumatic stress syndrome (PTSD). Economic marginalization and urban residency also contributed to current risk of PTSD. CONCLUSIONS: The results support the study hypothesis that both past and recent negative events in combination with economic marginalization contribute to explain current risk of PTSD. It is necessary both to improve living conditions more broadly and to establish and develop health services that have the capacity to screen, prevent and treat mental health problems also in poor contexts, in particular against a background of previous armed conflict.

Combining survey data, GIS and qualitative interviews in the analysis of health service access for persons with disabilities.

BACKGROUND: Equitable access to health services is a key ingredient in reaching health for persons with disabilities and other vulnerable groups. So far, research on access to health services in low- and middle-income countries has largely relied on self-reported survey data. Realizing that there may be substantial discrepancies between perceived and actual access, other methods are needed for more precise knowledge to guide health policy and planning. The objective of this article is to describe and discuss an innovative methodological triangulation where statistical and spatial analysis of perceived distance and objective measures of access is combined with qualitative evidence. METHODS: The data for the study was drawn from a large household and individual questionnaire based survey carried out in Namibia and Malawi. The survey data was combined with spatial data of respondents and health facilities, key informant interviews and focus group discussions. To analyse access and barriers to access, a model is developed that takes into account both measured and perceived access. The geo-referenced survey data is used to establish four outcome categories of perceived and measured access as either good or poor. Combined with analyses of the terrain and the actual distance from where the respondents live to the health facility they go to, the data allows for categorising areas and respondents according to the four outcome categories. The four groups are subsequently analysed with respect to variation in individual characteristics and vulnerability factors. The qualitative component includes participatory map drawing and is used to gain further insight into the mechanisms behind the different combinations of perceived and actual access. RESULTS: Preliminary results show that there are substantial discrepancies between perceived and actual access to health services and the qualitative study provides insight into mechanisms behind such divergences. CONCLUSION: The novel combination of survey data, geographical data and qualitative data will generate a model on access to health services in poor contexts that will feed into efforts to improve access for the most vulnerable people in underserved areas.

Factors related to environmental barriers experienced by persons with and without disabilities in diverse African settings.

This paper explores differences in experienced environmental barriers between individuals with and without disabilities and the impact of additional factors on experienced environmental barriers. Data was collected in 2011-2012 by means of a two-stage cluster sampling and comprised 400-500 households in different sites in South Africa, Sudan Malawi and Namibia. Data were collected through self-report survey questionnaires. In addition to descriptive statistics and simple statistical tests a structural equation model was developed and tested. The combined file comprised 9,307 participants. The Craig Hospital Inventory of Environmental Factors was used to assess the level of environmental barriers. Transportation, the natural environment and access to health care services created the biggest barriers. An exploratory factor analysis yielded support for a one component solution for environmental barriers. A scale was constructed by adding the items together and dividing by number of items, yielding a range from one to five with five representing the highest level of environmental barriers and one the lowest. An overall mean value of 1.51 was found. Persons with disabilities scored 1.66 and persons without disabilities 1.36 (F = 466.89, p < .001). Bivariate regression analyses revealed environmental barriers to be higher among rural respondents, increasing with age and severity of disability, and lower for those with a higher level of education and with better physical and mental health. Gender had an impact only among persons without disabilities, where women report more barriers than men. Structural equation model analysis showed that socioeconomic status was significantly and negatively associated with environmental barriers. Activity limitation is significantly associated with environmental barriers when controlling for a number of other individual characteristics. Reducing barriers for the general population would go some way to reduce the impact of these for persons with activity limitations, but additional and specific adaptations will be required to ensure an inclusive society.

Sick of waiting: Does waiting for elective treatment cause sickness absence?

Sickness absence represents a substantial cost in most of Western Europe, whether the insurance scheme is public or private. The objective of this study was to analyse whether waiting time for elective treatment in specialist health care is associated with the length of individual sickness absence in Norway. To estimate the association between waiting time and the duration of sick leave, we used data from the working population aged 18-67 years in 2010-2012. The files combined register data from The Norwegian Patient Registry with individual characteristics and sickness absence data from Statistics Norway, and was analysed using zero-truncated negative binomial regression. We found that about one in four employees who had one or more spells of sick leave in the period, was also waiting for consultation or treatment in specialist health care. Yet, the length of the waiting period had no substantial effect on the length of sickness absence (i.e., less than 0.1% reduction). Therefore, while measures to reduce waiting times for hospital treatment in many instances could be beneficial for the individual patient, such policies would probably not have any substantial impact on the national sickness absence rate.

Perceived Barriers for Accessing Health Services among Individuals with Disability in Four African Countries.

There is an increasing awareness among researchers and others that marginalized and vulnerable groups face problems in accessing health care. Access problems in particular in low-income countries may jeopardize the targets set by the United Nations through the Millennium Development Goals. Thus, identifying barriers for individuals with disability in accessing health services is a research priority. The current study aimed at identifying the magnitude of specific barriers, and to estimate the impact of disability on barriers for accessing health care in general. A population based household survey was carried out in Sudan, Namibia, Malawi, and South Africa, including a total of 9307 individuals. The sampling strategy was a two-stage cluster sampling within selected geographical areas in each country. A listing procedure to identify households with disabled members using the Washington Group six screening question was followed by administering household questionnaires in households with and without disabled members, and questionnaires for individuals with and without disability. The study shows that lack of transport, availability of services, inadequate drugs or equipment, and costs, are the four major barriers for access. The study also showed substantial variation in perceived barriers, reflecting largely socio-economic differences between the participating countries. Urbanity, socio-economic status, and severity of activity limitations are important predictors for barriers, while there is no gender difference. It is suggested that education reduces barriers to health services only to the extent that it reduces poverty. Persons with disability face additional and particular barriers to health services. Addressing these barriers requires an approach to health that stresses equity over equality.