Assessing the contribution of tumor mutational phenotypes to cancer progression risk.

Cancer occurs via an accumulation of somatic genomic alterations in a process of clonal evolution. There has been intensive study of potential causal mutations driving cancer development and progression. However, much recent evidence suggests that tumor evolution is normally driven by a variety of mechanisms of somatic hypermutability, which act in different combinations or degrees in different cancers. These variations in mutability phenotypes are predictive of progression outcomes independent of the specific mutations they have produced to date. Here we explore the question of how and to what degree these differences in mutational phenotypes act in a cancer to predict its future progression. We develop a computational paradigm using evolutionary tree inference (tumor phylogeny) algorithms to derive features quantifying single-tumor mutational phenotypes, followed by a machine learning framework to identify key features predictive of progression. Analyses of breast invasive carcinoma and lung carcinoma demonstrate that a large fraction of the risk of future clinical outcomes of cancer progression-overall survival and disease-free survival-can be explained solely from mutational phenotype features derived from the phylogenetic analysis. We further show that mutational phenotypes have additional predictive power even after accounting for traditional clinical and driver gene-centric genomic predictors of progression. These results confirm the importance of mutational phenotypes in contributing to cancer progression risk and suggest strategies for enhancing the predictive power of conventional clinical data or driver-centric biomarkers.

Deconvolution and phylogeny inference of structural variations in tumor genomic samples.

Motivation: Phylogenetic reconstruction of tumor evolution has emerged as a crucial tool for making sense of the complexity of emerging cancer genomic datasets. Despite the growing use of phylogenetics in cancer studies, though, the field has only slowly adapted to many ways that tumor evolution differs from classic species evolution. One crucial question in that regard is how to handle inference of structural variations (SVs), which are a major mechanism of evolution in cancers but have been largely neglected in tumor phylogenetics to date, in part due to the challenges of reliably detecting and typing SVs and interpreting them phylogenetically. Results: We present a novel method for reconstructing evolutionary trajectories of SVs from bulk whole-genome sequence data via joint deconvolution and phylogenetics, to infer clonal sub-populations and reconstruct their ancestry. We establish a novel likelihood model for joint deconvolution and phylogenetic inference on bulk SV data and formulate an associated optimization algorithm. We demonstrate the approach to be efficient and accurate for realistic scenarios of SV mutation on simulated data. Application to breast cancer genomic data from The Cancer Genome Atlas shows it to be practical and effective at reconstructing features of SV-driven evolution in single tumors. Availability and implementation: Python source code and associated documentation are available at https://github.com/jaebird123/tusv.