Integrating principles and tools of decision science into value-driven watershed planning for compensatory mitigation.

Several environmental policies strive to restore impaired ecosystems and could benefit from a consistent and transparent process-codeveloped with key stakeholders-to prioritize impaired ecosystems for restoration activities. The Clean Water Act, for example, establishes reallocation mechanisms to transfer ecosystem services from sites of disturbance to compensation sites to offset aquatic resource functions that are unavoidably lost through land development. However, planning for the prioritization of compensatory mitigation areas is often hampered by decision-making processes that fall into a myopic decision frame because they are not coproduced with stakeholders. In this study, we partnered with domain experts from the North Carolina Division of Mitigation Services to codevelop a real-world decision framework to prioritize catchments by potential for the development of mitigation projects following principles of a structured decision-making process and knowledge coproduction. Following an iterative decision analysis cycle, domain experts revised foundational components of the decision framework and progressively added complexity and realism as they gained additional insights or more information became available. Through the course of facilitated in-person and remote interactions, the codevelopment of a decision framework produced three main "breakthroughs" from the perspective of the stakeholder group: (a) recognition of the problem as a multiobjective decision driven by several values in addition to biogeophysical goals (e.g., functional uplift, restoring or enhancing lost functionality of ecosystems); (b) that the decision comprises a linked and sequential planning-to-implementation process; and (c) future risk associated with land-use and climate change must be considered. We also present an interactive tool for "on-the-fly" assessment of alternatives and tradeoff analysis, allowing domain experts to quickly test, react to, and revise prioritization strategies. The decision framework described in this study is not limited to the prioritization of compensatory mitigation activities across North Carolina but rather serves as a framework to prioritize a wide range of restoration, conservation, and resource allocation activities in similar environmental contexts across the nation.

Considering science needs to deliver actionable science.

Conservation practitioners, natural resource managers, and environmental stewards often seek out scientific contributions to inform decision-making. This body of science only becomes actionable when motivated by decision makers considering alternative courses of action. Many in the science community equate addressing stakeholder science needs with delivering actionable science. However, not all efforts to address science needs deliver actionable science, suggesting that the synonymous use of these two constructs (delivering actionable science and addressing science needs) is not trivial. This can be the case when such needs are conveyed by people who neglect decision makers responsible for articulating a priority management concern and for specifying how the anticipated scientific information will aid the decision-making process. We argue that the actors responsible for articulating these science needs and the process used to identify them are decisive factors in the ability to deliver actionable science, stressing the importance of examining the provenance and the determination of science needs. Guided by a desire to enhance communication and cross-literacy between scientists and decision makers, we identified categories of actors who may inappropriately declare science needs (e.g., applied scientists with and without regulatory affiliation, external influencers, reluctant decision makers, agents in place of decision makers, and boundary organization representatives). We also emphasize the importance of, and general approach to, undertaking needs assessments or gap analyses as a means to identify priority science needs. We conclude that basic stipulations to legitimize actionable science, such as the declaration of decisions of interest that motivate science needs and using a robust process to identify priority information gaps, are not always satisfied and require verification. To alleviate these shortcomings, we formulated practical suggestions for consideration by applied scientists, decision makers, research funding entities, and boundary organizations to help foster conditions that lead to science output being truly actionable.

Los administradores ambientales y de los recursos y los practicantes de la conservación buscan frecuentemente contribuciones científicas para informar sus decisiones. Este sector de la ciencia sólo se vuelve práctico cuando lo incentivan los órganos decisorios que consideran vías alternas de acción. Muchos dentro de la comunidad científica equiparan abordar las necesidades científicas de los actores con la ciencia práctica como resultado. Sin embargo, no son todos los esfuerzos por abordar las necesidades científicas los que resultan en ciencia práctica, lo que sugiere que el uso sinónimo de estos dos constructos (ciencia práctica como resultado y abordar las necesidades científicas) no es trivial. Esto puede ocurrir cuando personas que dejan de lado a los órganos decisorios responsables de articular un problema prioritario de manejo y de especificar cómo la información científica anticipada servirá durante el proceso de decisión transmiten dichas necesidades. Sostenemos que los actores responsables de articular estas necesidades científicas y el proceso utilizado para identificarlos son factores decisivos en la capacidad de tener ciencia práctica como resultado, con un hincapié en la importancia que tiene examinar el origen y determinación de dichas necesidades. Con el deseo de mejorar la comunicación y la alfabetización transversal entre los científicos y los órganos decisorios, identificamos las categorías de actores que pueden declarar indebidamente las necesidades científicas (p. ej.: científicos aplicados con y sin afiliación regulatoria, personas influyentes externas, órganos decisorios renuentes, agentes suplentes de los órganos decisorios y representantes de organizaciones fronterizas). También destacamos la importancia de, y el acercamiento general a, realizar análisis de las necesidades o análisis de las brechas como método para identificar las necesidades científicas prioritarias. Concluimos que las estipulaciones básicas para legitimar la ciencia práctica, como la declaración de las decisiones de interés que impulsan a las necesidades científicas y el uso de un proceso firme para identificar las brechas informativas prioritarias, no siempre se cumplen y requieren una verificación. Para mitigar estas deficiencias, formulamos algunas propuestas prácticas a consideración de los científicos aplicados, órganos decisorios, entidades de financiamiento para la investigación y organizaciones fronterizas para propiciar las condiciones que resultan en una producción científica realmente práctica.

Spatial conservation planning under uncertainty: adapting to climate change risks using modern portfolio theory.

Climate change and urban growth impact habitats, species, and ecosystem services. To buffer against global change, an established adaptation strategy is designing protected areas to increase representation and complementarity of biodiversity features. Uncertainty regarding the scale and magnitude of landscape change complicates reserve planning and exposes decision makers to the risk of failing to meet conservation goals. Conservation planning tends to treat risk as an absolute measure, ignoring the context of the management problem and risk preferences of stakeholders. Application of risk management theory to conservation emphasizes the diversification of a portfolio of assets, with the goal of reducing the impact of system volatility on investment return. We use principles of Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), which quantifies risk as the variance and correlation among assets, to formalize diversification as an explicit strategy for managing risk in climate-driven reserve design. We extend MPT to specify a framework that evaluates multiple conservation objectives, allows decision makers to balance management benefits and risk when preferences are contested or unknown, and includes additional decision options such as parcel divestment when evaluating candidate reserve designs. We apply an efficient search algorithm that optimizes portfolio design for large conservation problems and a game theoretic approach to evaluate portfolio trade-offs that satisfy decision makers with divergent benefit and risk tolerances, or when a single decision maker cannot resolve their own preferences. Evaluating several risk profiles for a case study in South Carolina, our results suggest that a reserve design may be somewhat robust to differences in risk attitude but that budgets will likely be important determinants of conservation planning strategies, particularly when divestment is considered a viable alternative. We identify a possible fiscal threshold where adequate resources allow protecting a sufficiently diverse portfolio of habitats such that the risk of failing to achieve conservation objectives is considerably lower. For a range of sea-level rise projections, conversion of habitat to open water (14-180%) and wetland loss (1-7%) are unable to be compensated under the current protected network. In contrast, optimal reserve design outcomes are predicted to ameliorate expected losses relative to current and future habitat protected under the existing conservation estate.

Estimating age from recapture data: integrating incremental growth measures with ancillary data to infer age-at-length.

Estimating the age of individuals in wild populations can be of fundamental importance for answering ecological questions, modeling population demographics, and managing exploited or threatened species. Significant effort has been devoted to determining age through the use of growth annuli, secondary physical characteristics related to age, and growth models. Many species, however, either do not exhibit physical characteristics useful for independent age validation or are too rare to justify sacrificing a large number of individuals to establish the relationship between size and age. Length-at-age models are well represented in the fisheries and other wildlife management literature. Many of these models overlook variation in growth rates of individuals and consider growth parameters as population parameters. More recent models have taken advantage of hierarchical structuring of parameters and Bayesian inference methods to allow for variation among individuals as functions of environmental covariates or individual-specific random effects. Here, we describe hierarchical models in which growth curves vary as individual-specific stochastic processes, and we show how these models can be fit using capture-recapture data for animals of unknown age along with data for animals of known age. We combine these independent data sources in a Bayesian analysis, distinguishing natural variation (among and within individuals) from measurement error. We illustrate using data for African dwarf crocodiles, comparing von Bertalanffy and logistic growth models. The analysis provides the means of predicting crocodile age, given a single measurement of head length. The von Bertalanffy was much better supported than the logistic growth model and predicted that dwarf crocodiles grow from 19.4 cm total length at birth to 32.9 cm in the first year and 45.3 cm by the end of their second year. Based on the minimum size of females observed with hatchlings, reproductive maturity was estimated to be at nine years. These size benchmarks are believed to represent thresholds for important demographic parameters; improved estimates of age, therefore, will increase the precision of population projection models. The modeling approach that we present can be applied to other species and offers significant advantages when multiple sources of data are available and traditional aging techniques are not practical.

Cross-species amplification of bovid microsatellites in central African duikers (genus Cephalophus) and other sympatric artiodactyls.

The present study set out to evaluate cross-species amplification of 34 bovid microsatellites in six central African duikers: Cephalophus callipygus, C. monticola, C. silvicultor, C. nigrifrons, C. dorsalis and C. leucogaster. Of these loci, 16 amplified across all species and appeared polymorphic when initially tested in polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis. Twelve of these loci were subsequently assembled into three multiplex panels of four loci each. These multiplexes successfully amplified across all six duiker species in the present study and the sympatric artiodactyls Tragelaphus spekei and Hyemoschus aquaticus. The only exception was the locus BM848 that did not amplify from C. leucogaster. For species with sufficient sample sizes (C. callipygus and C. monticola), the number of alleles ranged from three to ten and four to fifteen, respectively. Three loci deviated from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium in C. callipygus and five in C. monticola. We attribute the latter result to possibilities of local population substructuring or to an excess of homozygotes because of null alleles. These multiplex assemblies will greatly facilitate studies of individual identification, parentage analysis, population size estimation and fine-scale analyses of population genetic structure in central African artiodactyls.

Species-level diversification of African dwarf crocodiles (Genus Osteolaemus): a geographic and phylogenetic perspective.

The taxonomy of the African dwarf crocodile (genus Osteolaemus) has been disputed since a novel morphotype was discovered in the early 20th Century. Because this poorly-known reptile is widely hunted throughout the forests of Central and West Africa, resolving the existence and extent of taxonomic units has important management and conservation implications. Lack of molecular data from individuals of known origin and historical disagreement on diagnostic morphological characters have hindered attempts to settle one of the most important taxonomic questions in the Crocodylia. In an effort to clarify the evolutionary relationships among dwarf crocodiles, we sequenced three mitochondrial and two nuclear genes using a large sample of dwarf crocodiles from known localities across major drainage basins of forested Africa. Concordant results from Bayesian, maximum likelihood, maximum parsimony and population aggregation analytical methods support a previously recognized division of the dwarf crocodile into a Congo Basin form (O. osborni) and a West African form (Osteolaemus tetraspis), but also reveal a third diagnosable lineage from West Africa warranting recognition as an separate taxonomic unit. Corrected genetic distances between geographic regions ranged from 0.2% to 0.6% in nuclear fragments and 10.0 to 16.2% in mitochondrial COI. Population aggregation, using fixed and alternate character (nucleotide) states to cluster or divide populations, recovered 232 such molecular characters in 4286 bp of sequence data and unambiguously aggregated populations into their respective geographic clade. Several previously recognized morphological differences coincide with our molecular analysis to distinguish Congo Basin crocodiles from the Ogooué Basin and West Africa. Discrete morphological characters have not yet been documented between the latter two regions, suggesting further work is needed or molecular data may be required to recognize taxonomic divisions in cases where putative species are morphologically cryptic. This study highlights the importance of using widespread taxon sampling and a multiple evidence approach to diagnose species boundaries and reveal cryptic diversity.