Predictors of incident SARS-CoV-2 infections in an international prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Until effective treatments and vaccines are made readily and widely available, preventative behavioural health measures will be central to the SARS-CoV-2 public health response. While current recommendations are grounded in general infectious disease prevention practices, it is still not entirely understood which particular behaviours or exposures meaningfully affect one's own risk of incident SARS-CoV-2 infection. Our objective is to identify individual-level factors associated with one's personal risk of contracting SARS-CoV-2. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study of adult participants from 26 March 2020 to 8 October 2020. SETTING: The COVID-19 Citizen Science Study, an international, community and mobile-based study collecting daily, weekly and monthly surveys in a prospective and time-updated manner. PARTICIPANTS: All adult participants over the age of 18 years were eligible for enrolment. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE: The primary outcome was incident SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed via PCR or antigen testing. RESULTS: 28 575 unique participants contributed 2 479 149 participant-days of data across 99 different countries. Of these participants without a history of SARS-CoV-2 infection at the time of enrolment, 112 developed an incident infection. Pooled logistic regression models showed that increased age was associated with lower risk (OR 0.98 per year, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.00, p=0.019), whereas increased number of non-household contacts (OR 1.10 per 10 contacts, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.20, p=0.024), attending events of at least 10 people (OR 1.26 per 10 events, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.50, p=0.007) and restaurant visits (OR 1.95 per 10 visits, 95% CI 1.42 to 2.68, p<0.001) were associated with significantly higher risk of incident SARS-CoV-2 infection. CONCLUSIONS: Our study identified three modifiable health behaviours, namely the number of non-household contacts, attending large gatherings and restaurant visits, which may meaningfully influence individual-level risk of contracting SARS-CoV-2.

Predictors of incident viral symptoms ascertained in the era of COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: In the absence of universal testing, effective therapies, or vaccines, identifying risk factors for viral infection, particularly readily modifiable exposures and behaviors, is required to identify effective strategies against viral infection and transmission. METHODS: We conducted a world-wide mobile application-based prospective cohort study available to English speaking adults with a smartphone. We collected self-reported characteristics, exposures, and behaviors, as well as smartphone-based geolocation data. Our main outcome was incident symptoms of viral infection, defined as fevers and chills plus one other symptom previously shown to occur with SARS-CoV-2 infection, determined by daily surveys. FINDINGS: Among 14, 335 participants residing in all 50 US states and 93 different countries followed for a median 21 days (IQR 10-26 days), 424 (3%) developed incident viral symptoms. In pooled multivariable logistic regression models, female biological sex (odds ratio [OR] 1.75, 95% CI 1.39-2.20, p<0.001), anemia (OR 1.45, 95% CI 1.16-1.81, p = 0.001), hypertension (OR 1.35, 95% CI 1.08-1.68, p = 0.007), cigarette smoking in the last 30 days (OR 1.86, 95% CI 1.35-2.55, p<0.001), any viral symptoms among household members 6-12 days prior (OR 2.06, 95% CI 1.67-2.55, p<0.001), and the maximum number of individuals the participant interacted with within 6 feet in the past 6-12 days (OR 1.15, 95% CI 1.06-1.25, p<0.001) were each associated with a higher risk of developing viral symptoms. Conversely, a higher subjective social status (OR 0.87, 95% CI 0.83-0.93, p<0.001), at least weekly exercise (OR 0.57, 95% CI 0.47-0.70, p<0.001), and sanitizing one's phone (OR 0.79, 95% CI 0.63-0.99, p = 0.037) were each associated with a lower risk of developing viral symptoms. INTERPRETATION: While several immutable characteristics were associated with the risk of developing viral symptoms, multiple immediately modifiable exposures and habits that influence risk were also observed, potentially identifying readily accessible strategies to mitigate risk in the COVID-19 era.