The spatial effect of industrial transfer on carbon emissions under firm location decision:A carbon neutrality perspective.

Climate change is a global concern. The goal of carbon neutrality and emission peak is a challenge for China and other developing countries. The carbon reduction policy for carbon neutrality and industrial transfer policy will be a research hotspot on carbon emissions. This study analyzed the spatial impact mechanism of industrial transfer on carbon emissions, especially the role of firm location decision and carbon reduction policy. Based on the dynamic deviation-share model, the industrial transfer products of 30 provinces in China during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" and "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" periods were measured. The spatially weighted interaction model based on improved parameters was then utilized to explore the spatial effect of industrial transfer and carbon reduction policy on regional carbon emissions. The results show that the restrictive carbon reduction policy through centrifugal effect lead to the location shift of manufacturing firms. Industrial transfer and carbon emissions are significantly related. The restrictive carbon reduction policy has significant spatial emission reduction effect. The carbon reduction policy and industrial transfer level of different region comprehensively were the key factors affecting China's carbon neutral goal. The findings have implications for optimizing the scheme of carbon emission reduction tasks allocation between regions.

Ecological balance emerges in implementing the water-energy-food security nexus in well-developed countries in Africa.

Although many African countries have made significant progress towards universal access to water, energy, and food resources (WEF), assessing the ecological response to the increasing productivity of these resources is not well researched, which carries the risk of ecological deficit, resource degradation, and inefficient policy responses to resource management. This study seeks to assess the ecological sustainability response to the high increase demand for WEF resources in well-developed African countries. The study developed new measurement metrics for the WEF production system, including three indicators of ecological footprint (EF), ecological biocapacity (EBC), and eco-balance. The overall analysis considers data from four distinct types of water and energy use activities, and eight distinct types of food consumption, in nine African countries with the highest WEF nexus performance. An evaluation tool for the Water, Energy, Food and Ecological Balance (WEFEB) nexus index is proposed as one of the study's outcomes. Despite having 100% access to WEF resources related to the SDG targets. The results reveal the significant levels of imbalance and large ecological deficits existing in many of the concerned countries, especially North Africa, Mauritius, and South Africa, which need to rethink their economic models. Projecting a sustained increase in resource demand so that each country achieves at least 1700 m3/capita/year as the minimum amount of water needed, most countries would suffer from a steady increase in ecological imbalance. According to the results, managing the ecological imbalances with increasing demand for WEF resources in well-developed African countries may require well-designed policies to effectively reduce certain types of human demand that have a large ecological footprint.

Material-energy-water nexus: Modelling the long term implications of aluminium demand and supply on global climate change up to 2050.

Aluminium is a widely used metal and one of the most energy intensive industries, and therefore it has been included in most energy models and scenarios. Material demand and supply are broadly linked to energy, water, and climate change. In this study, we develop four global and regional process based scenarios for the material-energy-water nexus combined with CO2 emissions and applied to aluminium. The scenarios used in this study are; Market World (MW), Toward Resilience (TR), Security Foremost (SF), and Equitability World (EW). The results indicate that global CO2 emissions are expected to increase as a result of increasing aluminium demand, although aluminium secondary supply, energy efficiency, and cleaner energy supply technologies are expected to increase in the next 30 years. Policy and sustainability (TR and EW) scenarios are ultimately the best in terms of global climate change since the two scenarios have the lowest CO2 emissions, although they also have the highest aluminium demand and energy. It is therefore necessary to implement cleaner energy supply and energy efficiency technologies at high rates in aluminium industry to mitigate possible increase in CO2 emissions.

Materials, energy, water, and emissions nexus impacts on the future contribution of PV solar technologies to global energy scenarios.

PV technologies are increasingly making significant contribution to global energy generation (GEG), attributed to their high potential of increasing efficiency, cost reduction, and improving energy security. These technologies however rely on metals that are identified as critical due to risks associated with their supply, and other materials that require energy and water for their production. In this paper, a comprehensive assessment of required materials for PV technologies, an analysis of their materials inflows, outflows, and stocks, an estimate of their maximum contribution to global energy scenarios (GES), and an estimate of energy and water required for their material production and associated CO2 emissions under the nexus approach, have been carried out using a dynamic material flow-stock model. A total of 100 energy-material nexus scenarios, which combines 10 GES and 10 materials scenarios, have been analysed. Results indicate that although most GES are difficult to be realized under current PV technologies market share and condition; these technologies could make significant contribution to GEG in future. The three commercial thin-film PV technologies could produce between 3% and 22% of electricity generation in IEA-450 scenario. Energy required for PV materials production is expected to reach between 5.9% and 11.8% of electricity generated (EG) by PV solar and between 0.76% and 1.52% of total EG in IEA-450 scenario by 2050. CO2 emissions associated with material production are expected to be between 0.94% and 2.2% of total CO2 emissions in IEA-450 scenario by 2050.

Resource Demand Scenarios for the Major Metals.

The growth in metal use in the past few decades raises concern that supplies may be insufficient to meet demands in the future. From the perspective of historical and current use data for seven major metals-iron, manganese, aluminum, copper, nickel, zinc, and lead-we have generated several scenarios of potential metal demand from 2010 to 2050 under alternative patterns of global development. We have also compared those demands with various assessments of potential supply to midcentury. Five conclusions emerge: (1) The calculated demand for each of the seven metals doubles or triples relative to 2010 levels by midcentury; (2) The largest demand increases relate to a scenario in which increasingly equitable values and institutions prevail throughout the world; (3) The metal recycling flows in the scenarios meet only a modest fraction of future metals demand for the next few decades; (4) In the case of copper, zinc, and perhaps lead, supply may be unlikely to meet demand by about midcentury under the current use patterns of the respective metals; (5) Increased rates of demand for metals imply substantial new energy provisioning, leading to increases in overall global energy demand of 21-37%. These results imply that extensive technological transformations and governmental initiatives could be needed over the next several decades in order that regional and global development and associated metal demand are not to be constrained by limited metal supply.

Global Human Appropriation of Net Primary Production and Associated Resource Decoupling: 2010-2050.

Human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP) methodology has previously been developed to assess the intensity of anthropogenic extraction of biomass resources. However, there is limited analysis concerning future trends of HANPP. Here we present four scenarios for global biomass demand and HANPPharv (the most key component of HANPP) from 2010 to 2050 by incorporating data on expanded historical drivers and disaggregated biomass demand (food, wood material, and fuelwood). The results show that the biomass demand has the lowest value in the equitability world scenario (an egalitarian vision) and the highest value in the security foremost scenario (an isolationist vision). The biomass demand for food and materials increases over time, while fuelwood demand decreases over time. Global HANPPharv rises to between 8.5 and 10.1 Pg C/yr in 2050 in the four scenarios, 14-35% above its value in 2010, and some 50% of HANPPharv is calculated to be crop residues, wood residues, and food losses in the future. HANPPharv in developing regions (Asia, Africa, and Latin America) increases faster than that in more-developed regions (North America and Europe), due to urbanization, population growth, and increasing income. Decoupling of HANPPharv and socioeconomic development is also discussed in this work.

Long-term consequences of non-intentional flows of substances: modelling non-intentional flows of lead in the Dutch economic system and evaluating their environmental consequences.

Substances may enter the economy and the environment through both intentional and non-intentional flows. These non-intentional flows, including the occurrence of substances as pollutants in mixed primary resources (metal ores, phosphate ores and fossil fuels) and their presence in re-used waste streams from intentional use may have environmental and economic consequences in terms of pollution and resource availability. On the one hand, these non-intentional flows may cause pollution problems. On the other hand, these flows have the potential to be a secondary source of substances. This article aims to quantify and model the non-intentional flows of lead, to evaluate their long-term environmental consequences, and compare these consequences to those of the intentional flows of lead. To meet this goal, the model combines all the sources of non-intentional flows of lead within one model, which also includes the intentional flows. Application of the model shows that the non-intentional flows of lead related to waste streams associated with intentional use are decreasing over time, due to the increased attention given to waste management. However, as contaminants in mixed primary resources application, lead flows are increasing as demand for these applications is increasing.