Current and future trade in livestock products.

Rising per capita consumption, economic growth, and urbanisation, particularly in developing countries, have been driving an increased global demand for food. These changing socio-economic trends, which have greatly influenced changes in dietary patterns globally and, more specifically, have increased consumption of livestock products in developing countries, are expected to endure and to place new pressures on livestock-sector infrastructure and the delivery of veterinary services. This paper summarises current trade in meat and presents plausible projections for the future. It highlights the impact of animal disease on trade and considers the effect of ongoing disease outbreaks, particularly the outbreaks of African swine fever and COVID-19, on current and future trade dynamics. The authors analysed published statistics on the demand for, and international trade in, livestock products at national and regional levels and made projections of the same up to 2050, generated from an integrated model of the global agricultural and food system. The resulting analyses identified patterns of trade consistent with growing populations, increasing incomes and changing diets in developing countries. The analyses also pointed to slow expansion of livestock production, and the impacts of countries' disease status on livestock trade. For most of the livestock products analysed, economic model projections indicate increased consolidation of production and exports among a few countries. Marked increases in the trade in livestock products suggest a changing role for Veterinary Services in facilitating trade and extension in the years to come.

La demande mondiale en denrées alimentaires connaît une hausse continue sous l'effet conjugué de la progression de la consommation par habitant, de la croissance économique et de l'urbanisation, en particulier dans les pays en développement. Ces tendances socio-économiques ont modifié les structures des régimes alimentaires dans le monde, plus spécifiquement dans les pays en développement où la consommation de denrées alimentaires d'origine animale s'est accrue, et elles vont très certainement perdurer et exercer de nouvelles pressions sur les infrastructures du secteur de l'élevage comme sur les prestations de services vétérinaires. Les auteurs font une synthèse de l'état actuel des échanges internationaux de viande et présentent quelques projections plausibles concernant l'avenir. Ils soulignent l'impact des maladies animales sur les échanges et examinent les répercussions que les foyers actuels de maladies peuvent avoir sur les dynamiques actuelles et futures des échanges, en citant la peste porcine africaine et l'épidémie de COVID-19 à titre d'illustrations. Les auteurs analysent ensuite les statistiques publiées relatives à la demande en produits issus de l'élevage et aux échanges internationaux de ces produits à l'échelle nationale et régionale, et présentent leurs propres projections de ces tendances jusqu'en 2050, élaborées à partir d'un modèle intégré du système agricole et alimentaire mondial. Les analyses qui en résultent font apparaître que les structures des échanges évolueront parallèlement à la croissance démographique, à l'augmentation des revenus et aux modifications des régimes alimentaires dans les pays en développement. Les analyses relèvent également une croissance lente de l'élevage, ainsi que les conséquences du statut sanitaire des pays sur les échanges commerciaux. Pour la plupart des produits issus de l'élevage pris en compte dans cette analyse, les projections du modèle économique prévoient une concentration accrue de la production et des exportations, dans un nombre limité de pays. Une augmentation marquée des échanges de produits issus de l'élevage devra s'accompagner d'une évolution du rôle des Services vétérinaires afin de faciliter les échanges et de soutenir leur extension dans les années à venir.

El aumento del consumo per cápita, el crecimiento económico y los procesos de urbanización, especialmente en los países en desarrollo, han venido induciendo una mayor demanda mundial de alimentos. Estas tendencias socioeconómicas han influido sobremanera en la evolución de los regímenes alimentarios en todo el mundo y, más concretamente, han llevado a un mayor consumo de productos ganaderos en los países en desarrollo. Según apuntan las previsiones, esta evolución se prolongará en el tiempo y ejercerá nuevas presiones sobre la infraestructura del sector pecuario y la prestación de servicios veterinarios. Los autores resumen la situación actual del comercio de productos cárnicos y presentan proyecciones plausibles de lo que puede deparar el futuro. Tras destacar el peso que tienen las enfermedades animales en el comercio, examinan los efectos de brotes infecciosos hoy en curso, en particular de peste porcina africana y COVID-19, sobre la dinámica actual y futura del comercio. Los autores analizaron las estadísticas publicadas sobre la demanda y el comercio internacional de productos procedentes de la ganadería, por países y regiones, tras lo cual hicieron proyecciones del curso de estas tendencias hasta 2050, generadas a partir de un modelo integrado del sistema agrícola y alimentario mundial. Los análisis resultantes depararon una configuración del comercio coherente con poblaciones cada vez más numerosas, un creciente nivel de ingresos y cambios en el régimen alimentario en los países en desarrollo. Los análisis también apuntaban a una lenta expansión de la producción pecuaria y ponían de relieve la influencia de la situación sanitaria de los países en el comercio de ganado. Para la mayoría de los productos ganaderos analizados, las proyecciones de los modelos económicos apuntaban a una mayor concentración en unos pocos países de la actividad de producción y exportación. La marcada intensificación del comercio de productos ganaderos lleva a pensar en una evolución del papel de los Servicios Veterinarios para facilitar el comercio y su extensión en los próximos años.

The roles of livestock in developing countries.

Livestock play a significant role in rural livelihoods and the economies of developing countries. They are providers of income and employment for producers and others working in, sometimes complex, value chains. They are a crucial asset and safety net for the poor, especially for women and pastoralist groups, and they provide an important source of nourishment for billions of rural and urban households. These socio-economic roles and others are increasing in importance as the sector grows because of increasing human populations, incomes and urbanisation rates. To provide these benefits, the sector uses a significant amount of land, water, biomass and other resources and emits a considerable quantity of greenhouse gases. There is concern on how to manage the sector's growth, so that these benefits can be attained at a lower environmental cost. Livestock and environment interactions in developing countries can be both positive and negative. On the one hand, manures from ruminant systems can be a valuable source of nutrients for smallholder crops, whereas in more industrial systems, or where there are large concentrations of animals, they can pollute water sources. On the other hand, ruminant systems in developing countries can be considered relatively resource-use inefficient. Because of the high yield gaps in most of these production systems, increasing the efficiency of the livestock sector through sustainable intensification practices presents a real opportunity where research and development can contribute to provide more sustainable solutions. In order to achieve this, it is necessary that production systems become market-orientated, better regulated in cases, and socially acceptable so that the right mix of incentives exists for the systems to intensify. Managing the required intensification and the shifts to new value chains is also essential to avoid a potential increase in zoonotic, food-borne and other diseases. New diversification options and improved safety nets will also be essential when intensification is not the primary avenue for developing the livestock sector. These processes will need to be supported by agile and effective public and private institutions.

Optimal dairy farm adjustments to increased utilization of corn distillers dried grains with solubles.

The purpose of this paper was to identify effective dairy farm management adjustments related to recent structural changes in agricultural commodity markets because of expanded biofuels production and other market factors. We developed a mathematical programming model of a representative dairy farm in New York State to estimate the effects of changes in the relative prices of important feed components on farm profitability, identify optimal adjustments for on-farm feed production, crop sales, and dairy rations that account for expanded utilization of corn distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS), and point out potential implications of these adjustments on whole-farm nutrient planning. We mapped out an effective farm-level demand curve for DDGS by varying DDGS prices relative to other primary feed ingredients, which allowed us to compare DDGS utilization at alternative market conditions. Had the relative prices of major feed ingredients remained at their historical averages, our results suggest that there is only modest potential for feeding DDGS through supplementation in rations for dry cows and heifers as a substitute for soybean meal. However, the relatively lower DDGS prices experienced in 2008 imply an expanded optimal use of DDGS to include rations for lactating cows at 10% of the total mixed ration. Despite these expanded opportunities for DDGS at lower prices, the effects on farm net returns were modest. The most important considerations are perhaps those related to changes in the phosphorus (P) levels in the dairy waste. We showed that including moderate levels of DDGS (10%) in rations for lactating cows did not significantly increase P excretion. However, if the rations for dry cows and heifers were supplemented with DDGS, P excretion did increase, resulting in sizable increases of plant-available phosphorus applied to cropland well beyond crop nutrient requirements. Although our results show that it is economically optimal for the dairy producer to incorporate DDGS into these rations, some operations will be unable to accommodate the additional P because of existing nutrient management recommendations, soil P status, and the number of acres available for manure spreading.