Development and Validation of Nosocomial Bacterial Infection Prediction Models for Patients With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus.

BACKGROUND: Hospital-acquired bacterial infections are associated with high morbidity and mortality rates in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). This study aimed to develop and validate predictive models for the risk of hospital-acquired bacterial infections in patients with SLE. METHODS: A historical cohort study was designed for development, and another bidirectional cohort study was used for external validation. The risk of bacterial infection was assessed upon admission and after 5 days of hospitalization. Predictor selection employed the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) techniques. Multiple imputations were used to handle missing data. Logistic regression models were applied, and the properties of discrimination, calibration, and decision curve analysis were evaluated. RESULTS: The development cohort comprised 1686 patients and 237 events (14.1%) from 3 tertiary hospitals. The external validation cohort included 531 patients and 84 infection outcomes (15.8%) from 10 hospital centers in Colombia (secondary and tertiary level). The models applied at admission and after 120 hours of stay exhibited good discrimination (AUC > 0.74). External validation demonstrated good performance among patients from the same tertiary institutions where the models were developed. However, geographic validation at other institutions has been suboptimal. CONCLUSIONS: Two predictive models for nosocomial bacterial infections in patients with SLE are presented. All infection prevention recommendations should be maximized in patients at moderate/high risk. Further validation studies in diverse contexts, as well as clinical impact trials, are necessary before potential applications in research and clinical care.

Locum Tenens and Pediatric Surgery: A Position Statement and Practice Guidelines From the American Pediatric Surgical Association (APSA).

The American Pediatric Surgical Association (APSA) Practice Committee endorsed by the Board of Governors presents a Position Statement on the role of locum tenens in the practice of pediatric surgery. The Practice Committee also presents a set of guidelines for locum tenens practice. These recommendations highlight safe practice and quality care that protects the patient as well as the pediatric surgeon by offering best practice standards, defining optimal resources and establishing parameters by which hospitals and locum tenens agencies should abide. These guidelines are intended to foster discussion and contract negotiation as well as inform decision making for a) pediatric surgeons considering locum tenens opportunities, b) host organizations (hospitals and practices) seeking the coverage of a pediatric surgeon, and c) locum tenens companies vetting both surgeons and hospitals for appropriateness of such coverage. This Position Statement and foundational set of guidelines align with APSA's Vision (all children receive the highest quality surgical care) and Mission (to provide the best surgical care to our patients and families by supporting an inclusive community through education, discovery and advocacy).

Predictive Factors of Hospital-Acquired Bacterial Infections in Patients With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to identify the predictive factors of hospital-acquired bacterial infections in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). METHODS: This chart review study included patients with SLE who were hospitalized between 2009 and 2020 for reasons other than infection. The outcome was defined as any infection confirmed using any bacterial isolation method or diagnosed by treating physicians and required treatment with intravenous antibiotics. For statistical analysis, logistic regression analyses were performed. RESULTS: In total, 1678 patients (87.6% women) were included. The median age was 33 years (interquartile range, 24-47 years). The incidence of hospital-acquired infections was 13.9% (233 infections). Age, Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index score, Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics damage score, blood urea nitrogen and C-reactive protein levels, dosage of steroid in the previous month, recent use of 1 or more immunosuppressants, admission with a central venous catheter (or dialysis catheter), and use of central venous catheter or bladder catheter in the first 5 days were the predictive factors of nosocomial infections. CONCLUSION: The patients' infection risk profile should be assessed to accurately determine the risk-benefit balance of any therapeutic intervention, minimize exposure to steroids and immunosuppressants, and maintain a low threshold for the early diagnosis of infections. Further studies should assess whether the modification of some identified factors could reduce the incidence of nosocomial infections.

Impact of institutional prophylaxis guidelines on rates of pediatric venous thromboembolism following trauma-A multicenter study from the pediatric trauma society research committee.

BACKGROUND: A paucity of data exists with regard to the incidence, management, and outcomes of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in injured children. We sought to determine the impact of institutional chemoprophylaxis guidelines on VTE rates in a pediatric trauma population. METHODS: A retrospective review of injured children (≤15 years) admitted between 2009 and 2018 at 10 pediatric trauma centers was performed. Data were gathered from institutional trauma registries and dedicated chart review. The institutions were surveyed as to whether they had chemoprophylaxis guidelines in place for high-risk pediatric trauma patients, and outcomes were compared based on the presence of guidelines using χ 2 analysis ( p < 0.05). RESULTS: There were 45,202 patients evaluated during the study period. Three institutions (28,359 patients, 63%) had established chemoprophylaxis policies during the study period ("Guidelines"); the other seven centers (16,843 patients, 37%) had no such guidelines ("Standard"). There were significantly lower rates of VTE in the Guidelines group, but these patients also had significantly fewer risk factors. Among critically injured children with similar clinical presentations, there was no difference in VTE rate. Specifically within the Guidelines group, 30 children developed VTE. The majority (17/30) were actually not indicated for chemoprophylaxis based on institutional guidelines. Still, despite protocols only one VTE patient in the guidelines group who was indicated for intervention ended up receiving chemoprophylaxis prior to diagnosis. No consistent ultrasound screening protocol was in place at any institution during the study. CONCLUSION: The presence of an institutional policy to guide chemoprophylaxis for injured children is associated with a decreased overall frequency of VTE, but this disappears when controlling for patient factors. However, the overall efficacy is impacted by a combination of deficits in guideline compliance and structure. Further prospective data are needed to help determine the ideal role for chemoprophylaxis and protocols in pediatric trauma. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Therapeutic/Care Management; Level IV.

Development of the Red Flag Scorecard Screening Tool for Identification of Child Physical Abuse in the Emergency Department.

BACKGROUND: Child physical abuse (CPA) may have subtle presenting signs and can be challenging to identify, especially at emergency centers that do not treat many children. The purpose of this study is to determine the performance of a simple CPA screening tool to identify children most at risk. METHODS: A screening tool ("Red Flag Scorecard") was developed utilizing available evidence-based presenting findings and expert consensus. Retrospective chart review of children treated for injuries between 2014 and 2018 with suspected or confirmed CPA at a level I pediatric trauma center was then performed to validate the screening tool. Descriptive statistics and chi square tests were used to analyze the data. RESULTS: Of 408 cases, median age was 7 months and 60% were male. The majority (69%) were under 1 year of age. The most common history finding was delay in seeking care (58%, 236/408; p = <0.0001), the most common physical exam finding was bruising located away from bony prominences (45%, 182/408), and the most common imaging finding was unexplained brain injury (49%, 201/408). The majority, 84% (343/408), had at least 2 history findings. The combination score of at least 2 history findings and 1 physical/imaging finding was most sensitive (79%). The scorecard would have identified 94% of children who presented with no trauma history (198/211). CONCLUSION: The Red Flag Scorecard may serve as a quick and effective screening tool to raise suspicion for child physical abuse in emergency centers. Prospective study is planned to validate these results. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: IV.

Pediatric Ingestions.

Pediatric ingestions encompass a wide range of diseases, including foreign body ingestions, caustic ingestions, and aspiration. Specific topics of interest in the pediatric age group for adult general surgeons are button batteries and magnets, which have significant morbidity and mortality and require a high index of suspicion to provide timely care. Evaluation and management of these cases should be tailored to the offending agent and managed at an appropriate pediatric center.

Utilization of Machine Learning Approaches to Predict Mortality in Pediatric Warzone Casualties.

BACKGROUND: Identification of pediatric trauma patients at the highest risk for death may promote optimization of care. This becomes increasingly important in austere settings with constrained medical capabilities. This study aimed to develop and validate predictive models using supervised machine learning (ML) techniques to identify pediatric warzone trauma patients at the highest risk for mortality. METHODS: Supervised learning approaches using logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), neural network (NN), and random forest (RF) models were generated from the Department of Defense Trauma Registry, 2008-2016. Models were tested and compared to determine the optimal algorithm for mortality. RESULTS: A total of 2,007 patients (79% male, median age range 7-12 years old, 62.5% sustaining penetrating injury) met the inclusion criteria. Severe injury (Injury Severity Score > 15) was noted in 32.4% of patients, while overall mortality was 7.13%. The RF and SVM models displayed recall values of .9507 and .9150, while LR and NN displayed values of .8912 and .8895, respectively. Random forest (RF) outperformed LR, SVM, and NN on receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis demonstrating an area under the ROC of .9752 versus .9252, .9383, and .8748, respectively. CONCLUSION: Machine learning (ML) techniques may prove useful in identifying those at the highest risk for mortality within pediatric trauma patients from combat zones. Incorporation of advanced computational algorithms should be further explored to optimize and supplement the diagnostic and therapeutic decision-making process.

Spondyloarthritis: Characterization of a cohort. Pablo Tobón Uribe Hospital. Medellín, Colombia / Espondiloartritis: caracterización de la cohorte del Hospital Pablo Tobón Uribe, Medellín, Colombia

ABSTRACT Introduction: Spondyloarthritis is a group of chronic inflammatory diseases. Several factors of the disease remain unknown, including clinical and radiological behavior, the demographic characteristics and burden of disease in Colombian patients. Objective: To characterize the demographic aspects, the clinical and paraclinical behaviour, and the therapeutic requirements of a cohort of patients with spondyloarthritis followed-up in the Hospital Pablo Tobón Uribe from January 1, 2005 to December 31, 2017. Methodology: Cohort study. The population was characteriszed using descriptive statistics, qualitative variables using simple and relative frequencies, and quantitative variables using means and standard deviation or medians with their interquartile ranges. Results: The cohort consisted of 181 patients, 100 men (54.9%) and 81 women (44.5%). Just under one half (45.1%) had ankylosing spondylitis, 18.1% undifferentiated spondyloarthritis, 17.1% psoriatic arthropathy, 14.8% reactive arthritis, and 4.4% inflammatory bowel disease. More than two-thirds (69.8%) of the patients had peripheral manifestations, and 67% had axial. A positive HLAB27 was observed in 55.6% of patients. The MRI showed acute and chronic changes in the sacroiliac in 69% and 37%, respectively, with radiological sacroiliitis being observed in 59.5% of cases. The large majority (91.1%) of the patients were treated with PII of original article: S0121-8123(21)00018-9 NSAIDs, 60.1% with sulfasalazine, 43.4% with COX2 inhibitors, and 33.7% with methotrexate. TNFa inhibitors were required by 56.6% of the subjects 3 years after the onset of symptoms. The most commonly used biological drugs were Adalimumab (31.1%), etanercept (21.7%), infliximab (13.1%), golimumab 6.1%, and certolizumab 0.5%. Conclusions: Ourpopulation was characterized by a high activity and functional compromise demonstrated by the high scores of BASDAI and BASFI, and because 56.6% of the patients required anti-TNFa agents.

RESUMEN Introducción: Las espondiloartritis son un grupo de enfermedades inflamatorias crónicas. Se desconoce su comportamiento en nuestro medio, al igual que el comportamiento clínico y radiológico, las características demográficas y la carga de enfermedad en los pacientes colombianos. Objetivos: Caracterizar los aspectos demográficos, el comportamiento clínico y paraclínico y los requerimientos terapéuticos de la cohorte de pacientes con espondiloartritis seguidos en el Hospital Pablo Tobón Uribe desde el 1.° de enero del 2005 hasta el día 31 de diciembre del 2017. Metodología: Estudio de cohorte. La población se caracterizó mediante estadística descrip tiva, las variables cualitativas mediante frecuencias simples y relativas, en tanto que para las cuantitativas se emplearon medias y desviación estándar o medianas con sus rangos intercuartílicos. Resultados: La cohorte está constituida por 181 pacientes, 100 hombres (54,9%) y 81 mujeres (44,5%). El 45,1% tenía espondilitis anquilosante, el 18,1% espondiloartritis indiferenciada, el 17,1% artropatía psoriásica, el 14,8% artritis reactiva y el 4,4% enfermedad inflamatoria intestinal. El 69,8% de los pacientes tenía manifestaciones periféricas y el 67% axiales. El 55,6% de los pacientes tuvo HLAB27 positivo. La RMN mostró cambios agudos y crónicos en las sacroilíacas en el 69% y 37%, respectivamente; en el 59,5% de los casos se observó sacroileítis radiológica. el 91,1% de los pacientes se trató con AINE, el 60,1% con sulfasa lazina, el 43,4% con inhibidores COX2 y el 33,7% con metotrexato. El 56,6% de los sujetos requirió inhibidores-TNFa 3 arios después del inicio de los síntomas. Los biológicos más uti lizados fueron adalimumab (31,1%), etanercept (21,7%), infliximab (13,1%), golumimab (6,1%) y certolizumab (0,5%). Conclusiones: Nuestra población se caracterizó por una alta actividad y gran compromiso funcional, lo que se refleja en altos puntajes de Basdai y Basfi y en que el 56,6% de los pacientes requirió agentes anti-TNFa.

Pediatric Mild Traumatic Brain Injury: Who Can Be Managed at a Non-pediatric Trauma Center Hospital? A Systematic Review of the Literature.

BACKGROUND: Pediatric traumatic brain injury (TBI) affects about 475,000 children in the United States annually. Studies from the 1990s showed worse mortality in pediatric TBI patients not transferred to a pediatric trauma center (PTC), but did not examine mild pediatric TBI. Evidence-based guidelines used to identify children with clinically insignificant TBI who do not require head CT were developed by the Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Research Network (PECARN). However, which patients can be safely observed at a non-PTC is not directly addressed. METHODS: A systematic review of the literature was conducted, focusing on management of pediatric TBI and transfer decisions from 1990 to 2020. RESULTS: Pediatric TBI patients make up a great majority of preventable transfers and admissions, and comprise a significant portion of avoidable costs to the health care system. Majority of mild TBI patients admitted to a PTC following transfer do not require ICU care, surgical intervention, or additional imaging. Studies have shown that as high as 83% of mild pediatric TBI patients are discharged within 24 hrs. CONCLUSIONS: An evidence-based clinical practice algorithm was derived through synthesis of the data reviewed to guide transfer decision. The papers discussed in our systematic review largely concluded that transfer and admission was unnecessary and costly in pediatric patients with mild TBI who met the following criteria: blunt, no concern for NAT, low risk on PECARN assessment, or intermediate risk on PECARN with negative imaging or imaging with either isolated, nondisplaced skull fractures without ICH and/or EDH, or SDH <0.3 cm with no midline shift.

A Retrospective Cohort Study on the Increasing Trend of Suicide Ideations and Risks in an Opioid-Dependent Population of Puerto Rico 2015-2018.

The rate of suicide attempts among people with substance abuse disorders in the U.S. is six times higher than in the general population. The prevalence of suicidal ideations and attempts continues to increase in Puerto Rico, with a significant incidence in substance-abusing populations. This retrospective cohort study evaluate the suicide profile of 4,347 opioid dependent participants in ASSMCA's methadone center in San Juan, PR, from 2015 to 2018 using questions related to suicidal ideation and attempts included in the admission questionnaire. Participants reporting suicide ideation increase from 8.5% in 2015 to 17.0% in 2018. In 2015 only 7.0% claimed to have had a history of a suicide attempt, increasing to 12.4% in 2018. Our data support the need for screening for suicide risk among substance abusing populations to identify targeted interventions. The identification of high-risk populations for suicide can help during rehabilitation and finding the adequate resources needed.

Factores asociados con el uso de inhibidores del factor de necrosis tumoral alfa en una población de pacientes colombianos con espondiloartritis / Factors associated with the use of tumor necrosis factor alpha inhibitors in a population of Colombian patients with spondyloarthritis

RESUMEN Introducción: El uso de TNFi es cada vez más frecuente en los pacientes con espondiloartritis. Identificar tempranamente aquellos que los requerirán o poder predecir su uso puede ayudar a hacer un tratamiento más efectivo y oportuno racionalizando su uso. Objetivo: Determinar los factores qué mejor explican la indicación de TNFi en la población en estudio. Material y métodos: La asociación entre el uso de medicamentos anti-TNFα y las variables categóricas demográficas, clínicas, de laboratorio, radiológicas y de tratamiento se exploró por prueba exacta de Fisher. La asociación con las variables cuantitativas fue evaluada con t de Student o U de Mann Withney, de acuerdo con su distribución. Aquellas variables con p < 0,25 fueron ingresadas a modelos univariante de regresión logística explicativa para construir los OR crudos; aquellas con p < 0,25 se incluyeron en el modelo multivariante para construir OR ajustados. Resultados y discusión: La población está constituida por 181 pacientes. Modelo univariante: la artritis reactiva, uretritis y compromiso periférico fueron factores protectores para el uso de TNFi. Espondiloartritis axial, lumbalgia inflamatoria, dolor glúteo alternante, rigidez matinal sacroilitis demostrada por cualquier método, tratamiento con inhibidores COX-2, tiempo de evolución de tres arios o más y los puntajes de BASDAI y BASFI se asociaron con el uso de TNFi. Modelo multivariante: artritis reactiva (OR 0,1, IC 95% 0,012-0,86, p = 0,036), lumbalgia inflamatoria (OR 13,63, IC 95% 1,36-136, p = 0,026), sacroilitis (OR 7,71, IC 95% 1,04-57, p = 0,045, uso de coxib (OR 10,1, IC 95% 2,71-37,62, p = 0,001) y el puntaje máximo de BASDAI (4-6: OR 6,1, IC 95% 1,3-28,7, p = 0,022, mayor de 6: OR 15,8, IC 95% 2,2-113, p = 0,006) se asociaron independientemente con el uso de TNFi. El uso de coxib se asoció con la indicación de usar TNFi tanto en los pacientes con espondiloartritis axial (OR 4,2, IC 95% 1,74-10,11, p = 0,001) como periférica (OR 4, IC 95% 1,85-8,62, p < 0,001). Conclusiones: El inicio de la enfermedad en la forma de artritis reactiva se comportó como un factor protector para la necesidad posterior de usar TNFi, mientras que presentar lumbalgia inflamatoria, sacroilitis demostrada por cualquier método, el tratamiento con coxib y el puntaje máximo de BASDAI mayor de 4 se asociaron con el uso de estos medicamentos.

ABSTRACT Introduction: The use of tumor necrosis factor (TNF) alpha inhibitors is increasing in patients with spondyloarthritis. Early identification of those that would require them, or the ability to predict their use, could lead to a more effective and timely treatment by rationalizing their use. Objective: To determine factors that better explain the indication of TNFi in the study population. Material and methods: The association between anti-TNFα use and categorical demographic, clinical, laboratory, radiological and treatment variables was explored using Pearson's Chi2 or Fisher's exact test. The association with the quantitative variables was evaluated using Student's t test or Mann Whitney U test, depending on their distribution. Those variables with P < 0.25 were entered into univariate models of explanatory logistic regression to cons truct crude ORs, and those with P < 0.25 were included in the multivariate model to construct adjusted ORs. Results and discussion: The study population includes 181 patients. In the univariate model: reactive arthritis, urethritis, and peripheral involvement were protective factors for the use of TNFi. Axial spondyloarthritis, inflammatory lumbalgia, alternating gluteal pain, morning stiffness, sacroiliitis demonstrated by any method, treatment with COX-2 inhibitors, evolu tion time of three years or more, and BASDAI and BASFI scores were associated with the use of TNFi. Multivariate model: reactive arthritis (P = 0.036), inflammatory back pain (P = 0.026), sacroiliitis (P = 0.045), use of coxibs (P = 0.001) and the maximum score of BASDAI (P = 0.022, P = 0.006) were independently associated with the use of TNFi. The use of coxibs was associa ted with the indication of using TNFi in both patients with axial spondyloarthritis (P = 0.001) and peripheral (P < 0.001). Conclusions: The onset of the disease in the form of reactive arthritis behaved as a protective factor for the subsequent need to use TNFi, while presenting with inflammatory back pain, sacroiliitis, demonstrated by any method, treatment with coxibs, and the maximum score of BASDAI greater than 4 associated with the use of these medications.

Desarrollo y validación interna de un modelo de predicción clínica del riesgo de infección bacteriana nosocomial en pacientes con lupus eritematoso sistémico / Development and internal validation of a clinical prediction model of the risk of nosocomial bacterial infection in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus

RESUMEN Introducción: Los pacientes con lupus eritematoso sistémico (LES) tienen un riesgo aumen tado de padecer infecciones tanto adquiridas en la comunidad como asociadas con el cuidado de la salud. Las infecciones bacterianas son las más frecuentes y graves durante la hospitalización de estos pacientes. Objetivo: Desarrollar y validar internamente un modelo de predicción clínica de pronóstico del riesgo de infección bacteriana adquirida en el hospital en pacientes con LES, usando datos clínicos y de laboratorio obtenidos durante las primeras horas de hospitalización. Métodos: Se analizó una cohorte retrospectiva de pacientes con LES mayores de 16 arios, hos pitalizados por motivos diferentes a infección bacteriana en 2 hospitales de alta complejidad de Medellín entre 2011 y 2016. Se compararon las características de los pacientes que des arrollaron el desenlace de infección bacteriana entre el día 3 y el día 15 de hospitalización con aquellos que no lo presentaron. Las variables significativas en el análisis bivariado fueron consideradas para la construcción del modelo por medio de regresión logística multivariada. Resultados: Se incluyeron 765 episodios, de los cuales 98 (12,8%) presentaron el desenlace de interés. Se consideraron 35 predictores candidatos. Las variables incorporadas en el modelo final fueron: edad, recuento de neutrófilos, puntaje de actividad lúpica SLEDAI, uso de sonda vesical, uso de catéter venoso central en las primeras 72 h, dosis de glucocorticoides en el mes previo y el uso de un antimalárico en los 3 meses previos. La capacidad de discrimi nación del modelo fue aceptable a buena (AUC-ROC 0,74; IC 95% 0,69-0,80). La prueba de bondad de ajuste de Hosmer-Lemeshow (p = 0,637) evidenció una adecuada calibración. Conclusión: Desarrollamos un modelo de predicción clínica de pronóstico del riesgo de infec ción bacteriana nosocomial en pacientes con LES. El modelo desarrollado está compuesto por variables clínicas y de laboratorio simples disponibles en el momento del ingreso al hospital. Se requieren estudios de validación externa y de impacto clínico antes de su implementación rutinaria.

ABSTRACT Introduction: Patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) have an increased risk of developing community-acquired infections, as well as those associated with health care. Bacterial infections are the most common and serious while these patients are in hospital. Objective: To develop, and internally validate, a clinical prediction model for the prognosis of the risk of hospital-acquired bacterial infection in SLE patients using clinical and laboratory data obtained during the first hours of hospital admission. Methods: An analysis was performed on retrospective cohort of patients with SLE older than 16 years and admitted for reasons other than bacterial infection in 2 highly complex hospitals in Medellín between 2011 and 2016. The characteristics of the patients who developed a bacterial infection were compared between day 3 and day 15 of hospital admission with those who did not develop one. The significant variables in the bivariate analysis were used for the construction of the model using multivariate logistic regression. Results: A total of 765 episodes were included, of which 98 (12.8%) presented the outcome of interest. Thirty-five candidate predictors were considered. The variables incorporated in the final model were: age, neutrophil count, SLEDAI lupus activity score, use of a bladder catheter, use of a central venous catheter in the first 72 h, glucocorticoid doses in the previous month, and use of an antimalarial drug in the 3 previous months. The discrimination capacity of the model was acceptable to good (AUC-ROC 0.74; 95% CI 0.69-0.80). The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test (P = .637) suggested adequate calibration. Conclusion: A clinical prediction model of prognostic risk of nosocomial bacterial infection in patients with SLE has been developed. This model is made up of simple clinical and laboratory variables available at the time of hospital admission. External validation and clinical impact studies are required before routine implementation.

Venous thromboembolic risk stratification in pediatric trauma: A Pediatric Trauma Society Research Committee multicenter analysis.

BACKGROUND: Venous thromboembolism (VTE) in injured children is rare, but its consequences are significant. Several risk stratification algorithms for VTE in pediatric trauma exist with little consensus, and all are hindered in development by relying on registry data with known inaccuracies. We performed a multicenter review to evaluate trauma registry fidelity and confirm the effectiveness of one established algorithm across diverse centers. METHODS: Local trauma registries at 10 institutions were queried for all patients younger than 18 years admitted between 2009 and 2018. Additional chart review was performed on all "VTE" cases and random non-VTE controls to assess registry errors. Corrected data were then applied to our prediction algorithm using 10 real-time variables (Glasgow Coma Scale, age, sex, intensive care unit admission, transfusion, central line placement, lower extremity/pelvic fracture, major surgery) to calculate VTE risk scores. Contingency table classifiers and the area under a receiver operator characteristic curve were calculated. RESULTS: Registries identified 52,524 pediatric trauma patients with 99 episodes of VTE; however, chart review found that 13 cases were misclassified for a corrected total of 86 cases (0.16%). After correction, the algorithm still displayed strong performance in discriminating VTE-fated encounters (sensitivity, 69%; area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.96). Furthermore, despite wide institutional variability in VTE rates (0.04-1.7%), the algorithm maintained a specificity of >91% and a negative predictive value of >99.7% across centers. Chart review also revealed that 54% (n = 45) of VTEs were directly associated with a central line, usually femoral (n = 34, p < 0.001 compared with upper extremity), and that prophylaxis rates were underreported in the registries by about 50%; still, only 19% of the VTE cases had been on prophylaxis before diagnosis. CONCLUSION: The VTE prediction algorithm performed well when applied retrospectively across 10 diverse pediatric centers using corrected registry data. These findings can advance initiatives for VTE screening/prophylaxis guidance following pediatric trauma and warrant prospective study. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Clinical decision rule evaluated in a single population, level III.

Addition of neurological status to pediatric adjusted shock index to predict early mortality in trauma: A pediatric Trauma Quality Improvement Program analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Pediatric adjusted shock index (SIPA) has demonstrated the ability to prospectively identify children at the highest risk for early mortality. The addition of neurological status to shock index has shown promise as a reliable triage tool in adult trauma populations. This study sought to assess the utility of combining SIPA with Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) for predicting early trauma-related outcomes. METHODS: Retrospective review of the 2017 Trauma Quality Improvement Program Database was performed for all severely injured patients younger than 18 years old. Pediatric adjusted shock index and reverse SIPA × GCS (rSIG) were calculated. Age-specific cutoff values were derived for reverse shock index multiplied by GCS (rSIG) and compared with their SIPA counterparts for early mortality assessment using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve analyses. RESULTS: A total of 10,389 pediatric patients with an average age of 11.4 years, 67% male, average Injury Severity Score of 24.1, and 4% sustaining a major penetrating injury were included in the analysis. The overall mortality was 9.3%. Furthermore, 32.1% of patients displayed an elevated SIPA score, while only 27.5% displayed a positive rSIG. On area under the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, rSIG was found to be superior to SIPA as a predictor for in hospital mortality with values of 0.854 versus 0.628, respectively. CONCLUSION: Reverse shock index multiplied by GCS more readily predicted in hospital mortality for pediatric trauma patients when compared with SIPA. These findings suggest that neurological status should be an important factor during initial patient assessment. Further study to assess the applicability of rSIG for expanded trauma-related outcomes in pediatric trauma is necessary. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Prognostic study, level IV.

Contemporary management of pediatric open skull fractures: a multicenter pediatric trauma center study.

OBJECTIVE: The authors sought to evaluate the contemporary management of pediatric open skull fractures and assess the impact of variations in antibiotic and operative management on the incidence of infectious complications. METHODS: The records of children who presented from 2009 to 2017 to 6 pediatric trauma centers with an open calvarial skull fracture were reviewed. Data collected included mechanism and anatomical site of injury; presence and depth of fracture depression; antibiotic choice, route, and duration; operative management; and infectious complications. RESULTS: Of the fractures among the 138 patients included in the study, 48.6% were frontal and 80.4% were depressed; 58.7% of patients underwent fragment elevation. The average duration of intravenous antibiotics was 4.6 (range 0-21) days. Only 53 patients (38.4%) received a single intravenous antibiotic for fewer than 4 days. and 56 (40.6%) received oral antibiotics for an average of 7.3 (range 1-20) days. Wounds were managed exclusively in the emergency department in 28.3% of patients. Two children had infectious complications, including a late-presenting hardware infection and a superficial wound infection. There were no cases of meningitis or intracranial abscess. Neither antibiotic spectrum or duration nor bedside irrigation was associated with the development of infection. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of infectious complications in this population of children with open skull fractures was low and was not associated with the antibiotic strategy or site of wound care. Most minimally contaminated open skull fractures are probably best managed with a short duration of a single antibiotic, and emergency department closure is appropriate unless there is significant contamination or fragment elevation is necessary.

Predictive models of infection in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus: A systematic literature review.

INTRODUCTION: Having reliable predictive models of prognosis/the risk of infection in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients would allow this problem to be addressed on an individual basis to study and implement possible preventive or therapeutic interventions. OBJECTIVE: To identify and analyze all predictive models of prognosis/the risk of infection in patients with SLE that exist in medical literature. METHODS: A structured search in PubMed, Embase, and LILACS databases was carried out until May 9, 2020. In addition, a search for abstracts in the American Congress of Rheumatology (ACR) and European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) annual meetings' archives published over the past eight years was also conducted. Studies on developing, validating or updating predictive prognostic models carried out in patients with SLE, in which the outcome to be predicted is some type of infection, that were generated in any clinical context and with any time horizon were included. There were no restrictions on language, date, or status of the publication. To carry out the systematic review, the CHARMS (Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies) guideline recommendations were followed. The PROBAST tool (A Tool to Assess the Risk of Bias and Applicability of Prediction Model Studies) was used to assess the risk of bias and the applicability of each model. RESULTS: We identified four models of infection prognosis in patients with SLE. Mostly, there were very few events per candidate predictor. In addition, to construct the models, an initial selection was made based on univariate analyses with no contraction of the estimated coefficients being carried out. This suggests that the proposed models have a high probability of overfitting and being optimistic. CONCLUSIONS: To date, very few prognostic models have been published on the infection of SLE patients. These models are very heterogeneous and are rated as having a high risk of bias and methodological weaknesses. Despite the widespread recognition of the frequency and severity of infections in SLE patients, there is no reliable predictive prognostic model that facilitates the study and implementation of personalized preventive or therapeutic measures.Protocol registration number: PROSPERO CRD42020171638.

Identifying Maltreatment in Infants and Young Children Presenting With Fractures: Does Age Matter?

OBJECTIVES: Child abuse is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in preverbal children who cannot explain their injuries. Fractures are among the most common injuries associated with abuse but of themselves fractures may not be recognized as abusive until a comprehensive child abuse evaluation is completed, often prompted by other signs or subjective features. We sought to determine which children presenting with rib or long-bone fractures should undergo a routine abuse evaluation based on age. METHODS: A systematic review searching Ovid, PubMed/Medline, Scopus, and CINAHL from 1980 to 2020 was performed. An evidence-based framework was generated by a consensus panel and applied to the results of the systematic review to form recommendations. Fifteen articles were suitable for final analysis. RESULTS: Studies with comparable age ranges of subjects and sufficient evidence to meet the determination of abuse standard for pediatric patients with rib, humeral, and femoral fractures were identified. Seventy-seven percent of children presenting with rib fractures aged less than 3 years were abused; when those involved in motor vehicle collisions were excluded, 96% were abused. Abuse was identified in 48% of children less than 18 months with humeral fractures. Among those with femoral fractures, abuse was diagnosed in 34% and 25% of children aged less than 12 and 18 months, respectively. CONCLUSION: Among children who were not in an independently verified incident, the authors strongly recommend routine evaluation for child abuse, including specialty child abuse consultation, for: 1) children aged less than 3 years old presenting with rib fractures and 2) children aged less than 18 months presenting with humeral or femoral fractures (Level of Evidence: III Review).