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BACKGROUND: Although pneumococcal vaccine is recommended for everyone 65 years of age and older, only 58% of Canadians in this age group have been vaccinated, well below the Public Health Agency of Canada's target of 80%. To improve uptake, a stepped-wedge cluster randomized trial testing the effectiveness of a community pharmacist intervention was developed. OBJECTIVE: This pre-specified sub-study aimed to uncover and quantify factors contributing to vaccine hesitancy by exploring the nature of patient-pharmacist conversations about pneumococcal vaccine. METHODS: Beginning each month (April to August 2023), participating pharmacies were randomly selected to receive an education package designed to enhance pharmacists' knowledge, skills, and abilities in promoting pneumococcal vaccination. Pharmacists provided usual care (control stage) until they received the educational package and transitioned to the intervention stage. Weekly scorecards tracked patient-pharmacist conversations about pneumococcal vaccination. Chi-squared tests compared time taken for each conversation and patient-reported reason(s) for refusal between control and intervention stages. RESULTS: Thirteen pharmacies from across Alberta were included in the analysis, reporting 656 patient-pharmacist conversations (control stage n=271, intervention stage n=385). Time taken for pneumococcal vaccine conversations decreased after pharmacies received the education package (65% of conversations resulting in vaccination took <20 minutes in the control stage, compared to 88% in the intervention stage (p=0.004)). The most common patient-reported reason for refusal, needing more time to think about the vaccine, remained similar between stages (p=0.23). However, during the intervention stage, fewer patients refused vaccination due to lack of time to receive it today (p=0.016) and perceived lack of benefit (p=0.035), but more patients refused vaccination due to cost barriers (p=0.026). CONCLUSION: The education provided in this study changed the reasons for refusing vaccines, suggesting the nature of patient-pharmacist conversations became more efficient and informed. Similar interventions could be adopted across Canada and the US to help combat vaccine hesitancy.
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OBJECTIVE: The state of Illinois' Opioid Alternative Pilot Program (OAPP) is the first and only official harm-reduction program in the US to address the opioid crisis via facilitation of safe and legal access to medical cannabis. This study evaluates the association of medical cannabis use with pain level and frequency of opioid use in the first cohort of OAPP participants in 2019. METHODS: A survey was sent OAPP enrollees between February and July 2019. Cannabis users (n = 626) were compared to non-users (n = 234) to determine whether there was an association between cannabis use and self-reported (a) pain level and (b) frequency of opioid use. Backward stepwise regression models were used. RESULTS: A total of 860 participants was included in the analysis. Overall, 75% of the study sample reported pain as their primary medical symptom, and 67% of cannabis users reported having a disability. The mean difference in pain level between cannabis users and non-users was 4.5 units (on a 100-point scale) higher among cannabis users than non-users (p = 0.03); and cannabis use was statistically associated with pain level. High-frequency opioid users had lower odds of reporting cannabis use within the past year than low/no opioid users. CONCLUSIONS: Although there was a statistical association between cannabis use and pain, the difference of 4.5 points in pain level between users and non-users was too small to reflect a clinically meaningful relative difference. This study may provide useful information to providers and clinicians about how the OAPP and similar programs may reduce opioid use and improve health outcomes.
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OBJECTIVE: Despite pharmacological treatments for osteoarthritis (OA), more individuals are choosing medical cannabis for OA symptom management and for mitigating opioid prescriptions for OA. This systematic review examines the global evidence of medical cannabis use on OA pain and function. METHODS: The search was completed in MEDLINE (PubMed), Embase, and CINAHL within the past 10 years (2012-2022). We limited the search to English language articles. We did not include grey literature or case studies. Participant demographics included all adult individuals with OA who were using medical cannabis for OA. Study quality and risk of bias were evaluated using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations framework; and the Risk of Bias in Non-randomized Studies of Interventions tool. We used a narrative synthesis approach. RESULTS: Overall, 7 studies were included: 2 randomized controlled trials (RCT) and 5 observational studies. Only 1 of the 2 RCTs reported improvements in pain for cannabis users. All 5 observational studies reported an improvement in pain levels, reduction of opioid use, and/or improvement in overall OA function. Despite high risk of bias ratings and low study quality, the consensus across studies was that medical cannabis use was effective for a subgroup of individuals suffering from OA pain. CONCLUSIONS: There is low quality evidence to support medical cannabis use as a substitute for primary pharmacological treatment of OA. However, this does not negate the observations that medical cannabis may provide therapeutic relief for a subset of patients. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW PROPSERO REGISTRATION: CRD42022354026.
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Maconha Medicinal , Osteoartrite , Manejo da Dor , Humanos , Maconha Medicinal/uso terapêutico , Osteoartrite/tratamento farmacológico , Osteoartrite/complicações , Manejo da Dor/métodos , Dor/tratamento farmacológico , Resultado do Tratamento , Analgésicos Opioides/uso terapêuticoRESUMO
Purpose: To measure the impact of beliefs, expectations, side effects, and their combined effects on the risk for medication nonpersistence. Patients and methods: Using a cross-sectional design, individuals from Saskatchewan, Canada who started a new antihypertensive, cholesterol-lowering, or antihyperglycemic medication were surveyed about risk factors for nonpersistence including: (a) beliefs measured by a composite score of three questions asking about the threat of the condition, importance of the drug, and harm of the drug; (b) incident side effects attributed to treatment; and (c) expectations for side effects before starting treatment. Descriptive statistics and logistic regression models were used to quantify the influence of these risk factors on the outcome of nonpersistence. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated. Results: Among 3,029 respondents, 5.8% (n=177) reported nonpersistence within four months after starting the new drug. After adjustment for numerous covariates representing sociodemographics, health-care providers, medication experiences and beliefs, both negative beliefs (OR: 7.26, 95%CI: 4.98-10.59) and incident side effects (OR: 8.00, 95%CI: 5.49-11.68) were associated with the highest odds of nonpersistence with no evidence of interaction. In contrast, expectations for side effects before starting treatment exhibited an important interaction with incident side effects following treatment initiation. Among respondents with incident side effects (n=741, 24.5%), the risk for early nonpersistence was 11.5% if they indicated an expectation for side effects before starting the medication compared to 23.6% if they did not (adjusted OR: 0.38, 95%CI: 0.25-0.60). Conclusion: Expectations for side effects may be a previously unrecognized but important marker of the probability to persist with treatment. A high percentage of new medication users appeared unprepared for the possibility of side effects from their new medication making them less resilient if side effects occur.
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OBJECTIVES: Our aim in this study was to identify the association between place of residence (metropolitan, urban, rural) and guideline-concordant processes of care in the first year of type 2 diabetes management. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of new metformin users between April 2015 and March 2020 in Alberta, Canada. Outcomes were identified as guideline-concordant processes of care through the review of clinical practice guidelines and published literature. Using multivariable logistic regression, the following outcomes were examined by place of residence: dispensation of a statin, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEi) or angiotensin II receptor blocker (ARB), eye examination, glycated hemoglobin (A1C), cholesterol, and kidney function testing. RESULTS: Of 60,222 new metformin users, 67% resided in a metropolitan area, 10% in an urban area, and 23% in a rural area. After confounder adjustment, rural residents were less likely to have a statin dispensed (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.83, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.79 to 0.87) or undergo cholesterol testing (aOR 0.86, 95% CI 0.83 to 0.90) when compared with metropolitan residents. In contrast, rural residents were more likely to receive A1C and kidney function testing (aOR 1.14, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.21 and aOR 1.17, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.24, respectively). ACEi/ARB use and eye examinations were similar across place of residence. CONCLUSIONS: Processes of care varied by place of residence. Limited cholesterol management in rural areas is concerning because this may lead to increased cardiovascular outcomes.
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Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2 , Hipoglicemiantes , População Rural , População Urbana , Humanos , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/tratamento farmacológico , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/terapia , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/epidemiologia , Estudos Retrospectivos , Feminino , Masculino , População Rural/estatística & dados numéricos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , População Urbana/estatística & dados numéricos , Idoso , Hipoglicemiantes/uso terapêutico , Guias de Prática Clínica como Assunto/normas , Adulto , Fidelidade a Diretrizes/estatística & dados numéricos , Seguimentos , Prognóstico , Alberta/epidemiologia , Continuidade da Assistência ao Paciente/normas , Continuidade da Assistência ao Paciente/estatística & dados numéricosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: We examined the association between hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and the development of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in men and women, without diabetes or CVD at baseline. METHODS AND RESULTS: This retrospective cohort study included adults aged 40 to <80 years in Alberta, Canada. Men and women were divided into categories based on a random HbA1c during a 3-year enrollment period. The primary outcome of CVD hospitalization and secondary outcome of combined CVD hospitalization/mortality were examined during a 5-year follow-up period until March 31, 2021. A total of 608 474 individuals (55.2% women) were included. Compared with HbA1c 5.0% to 5.4%, men with HbA1c of 5.5% to 5.9% had an increased risk of CVD hospitalization (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.12 [95% CI, 1.07-1.19]) whereas women did not (aHR, 1.01 [95% CI, 0.95-1.08]). Men and women with HbA1c of 6.0% to 6.4% had a 38% and 17% higher risk and men and women with HbA1c ≥6.5% had a 79% and 51% higher risk of CVD hospitalization, respectively. In addition, HbA1c of 6.0% to 6.4% and HbA1c ≥6.5% were associated with a higher risk (14% and 41%, respectively) of CVD hospitalization/death in men, but HbA1c ≥6.5% was associated with a 24% higher risk only among women. CONCLUSIONS: In both men and women, HbA1c ≥6.0% was associated with an increased risk of CVD and mortality outcomes. The association between CVD and HbA1c levels of 5.5% to 5.9%, considered to be in the "normal" range, highlights the importance of optimizing cardiovascular risk profiles at all levels of glycemia, especially in men.
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Doenças Cardiovasculares , Hemoglobinas Glicadas , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Alberta/epidemiologia , Biomarcadores/sangue , Doenças Cardiovasculares/epidemiologia , Doenças Cardiovasculares/sangue , Doenças Cardiovasculares/mortalidade , Hemoglobinas Glicadas/metabolismo , Hospitalização/estatística & dados numéricos , Estudos Retrospectivos , Medição de Risco , Fatores de Risco , Fatores SexuaisRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Benzodiazepines are a class of medications that are being frequently prescribed in Canada but carry significant risk of harm. There has been increasing clinical interest on the potential "sparing effects" of medical cannabis as one strategy to reduce benzodiazepine use. The objective of this study as to examine the association of medical cannabis authorization with benzodiazepine usage between 2013 and 2021 in Alberta, Canada. METHODS: A propensity score matched cohort study with patients on regular benzodiazepine treatment authorized to use medical cannabis compared to controls who do not have authorization for medical cannabis. A total of 9690 medically authorized cannabis patients were matched to controls. To assess the effect of medical cannabis use on daily average diazepam equivalence (DDE), interrupted time series (ITS) analysis was used to assess the change in the trend of DDE in the 12 months before and 12 months after the authorization of medical cannabis. RESULTS: Over the follow-up period after medical cannabis authorization, there was no overall change in the DDE use in authorized medical cannabis patients compared to matched controls (- 0.08 DDE, 95% CI: - 0.41 to 0.24). Likewise, the sensitivity analysis showed that, among patients consuming ≤5 mg baseline DDE, there was no change immediately after medical cannabis authorization compared to controls (level change, - 0.04 DDE, 95% CI: - 0.12 to 0.03) per patient as well as in the month-to-month trend change (0.002 DDE, 95% CI: - 0.009 to 0.12) per patient was noted. CONCLUSIONS: This short-term study found that medical cannabis authorization had minimal effects on benzodiazepine use. Our findings may contribute ongoing evidence for clinicians regarding the potential impact of medical cannabis to reduce benzodiazepine use. HIGHLIGHTS: ⢠Medical cannabis authorization had little to no effect on benzodiazepine usage among patients prescribed regular benzodiazepine treatment in Alberta, Canada. ⢠Further clinical research is needed to investigate the potential impact of medical cannabis as an alternative to benzodiazepine medication.
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Cannabis , Maconha Medicinal , Adulto , Humanos , Benzodiazepinas/uso terapêutico , Estudos de Coortes , Maconha Medicinal/uso terapêutico , Alberta/epidemiologia , CanadáRESUMO
Background: Antihyperglycemic drug utilization studies are conducted frequently and describe the uptake of new drug therapies across may jurisdictions. An increasingly important, yet often absent, aspect of these studies is the impact of rurality on drug utilization. Objectives: The objective of this study was to explore the association between place of residence (rural, urban, metropolitan) and the use of dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitors (DPP-4i) for first treatment intensification of type 2 diabetes. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted from April 1, 2008 to March 31, 2019 of new metformin users. A multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to determine the association between place of residence (using postal codes) and likelihood of DPP-4i dispensing. Results: After adjusting for confounders, analysis revealed that rural-dwellers are less likely to have a DPP-4i dispensed, compared with metropolitan-dwellers (aOR:0.64; 95%CI:0.61-0.67) and over-time, the uptake in rural areas was slower. Conclusions: This study demonstrates that rurality can have an impact on drug therapy decisions at first treatment intensification, with respect to the utilization of new therapies.
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Despite evidence showing that recreational cannabis use is associated with a higher risk of psychotic disorders, this risk has not been well characterized for patients using medical cannabis. Therefore, this study assessed the risk of emergency department (ED) visits and hospitalization for psychotic disorders (the study outcome) among adult patients authorized to use medical cannabis. We performed a retrospective cohort study on patients authorized to use medical cannabis in a group of Ontario cannabis clinics between 2014 and 2019. Using clinical and health administrative data, each patient was matched by propensity scores to up to 3 population-based controls. Conditional Cox proportional hazards regressions were used to assess the risk. Among 54,006 cannabis patients matched to 161,265 controls, 39 % were aged ≤50 years, and 54 % were female. Incidence rates for psychotic disorders were 3.00/1000 person-years (95%CI: 2.72-3.32) in the cannabis group and 1.88/1000 person-years (1.75-2.03) in the control group. A significant association was observed, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.38 (95%CI: 1.19-1.60) in the total sample and 1.63 (1.40-1.91) in patients without previous psychotic disorders. The results suggest that cannabis authorization should include a benefit-risk assessment of psychotic disorders to minimize the risk of events requiring emergency attention.
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Cannabis , Maconha Medicinal , Transtornos Psicóticos , Adulto , Humanos , Feminino , Masculino , Estudos de Coortes , Estudos Retrospectivos , Pontuação de Propensão , Visitas ao Pronto Socorro , Transtornos Psicóticos/epidemiologia , Transtornos Psicóticos/etiologia , Hospitalização , Serviço Hospitalar de EmergênciaRESUMO
PURPOSE: Reducing initial exposure of "opioid naïve" patients to opioids is a public health priority. Identifying opioid naïve patients is difficult, as numerous definitions are used. The objective is to summarize current definitions and evaluate their impact on opioid naïve measures in Alberta. METHODS: An exploratory data analysis of the literature was conducted over the last 10 years to identify definitions commonly used in the literature to define opioid naïve. Then, using these definitions as a guide, we descriptively report the proportion of patients in Alberta between 2017 and 2021 who would be considered as opioid naïve using these definitions and all opioid dispensing data. RESULTS: Three categories of definitions were broadly identified: (1) no opioid use within the previous 30 days/6 months/1 year, based on dispensation date; (2) no opioid use based on dispensation date plus days of supply; and, (3) exclusion of codeine from Definitions 1 and 2. Applying these definitions to the Alberta population showed a very wide range in the proportion who would be considered as opioid naïve. Overall, 36.4% of Albertans (n = 1 551 075) had an opioid dispensation in 2017-2021. The average age was 46.6 ± 18.8 and 52.8% were female. The proportion of opioid naïve were most affected by the "opioid free" period, with 97.4%, 83.2%, and 65.6% being classified as opioid naïve using time windows from Definition 1 (30 days, 6 months, 1 year of no prior opioid use). Definitions 2 and 3 did not materially change the results. Further extending the "opioid free" period to 2 years showed only 35% were opioid naïve. CONCLUSIONS: The most convenient definition for "opioid naïve" was the use of an "opioid free" period. The choice of window would depend on how the information may be used to assistant in clinical decisions with longer windows more likely to reflect true opioid naïve patients. Irrespective of definition used, a large proportion of opioid users would be considered opioid naïve in Alberta.
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Analgésicos Opioides , Transtornos Relacionados ao Uso de Opioides , Humanos , Feminino , Adulto , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Idoso , Masculino , Analgésicos Opioides/efeitos adversos , Alberta/epidemiologia , Transtornos Relacionados ao Uso de Opioides/epidemiologia , Transtornos Relacionados ao Uso de Opioides/tratamento farmacológico , Codeína , Pesquisa , Estudos RetrospectivosRESUMO
The epidemic of type-2 diabetes in First Nations communities is tragic. Culturally-appropriate approaches addressing multiple components, focusing beyond glycemic control, are urgently needed. Using an intention-to-treat framework, 13 processes of care indicators were assessed to compare proportions of patients who received care at baseline relative to 2-year follow-up. Clinical improvements were demonstrated across major process of care indicators (e.g. screening, education, and vaccination activities). We found RADAR improved reporting for most diabetes processes of care across seven FN communities and was effective in supporting diabetes care for FN communities, in Alberta Canada.
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Atenção à Saúde , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2 , Canadenses Indígenas , Humanos , Alberta/epidemiologia , Canadá/epidemiologia , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/diagnóstico , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/epidemiologia , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/terapia , Indígenas Norte-Americanos , Canadenses Indígenas/estatística & dados numéricos , Atenção à Saúde/etnologia , Atenção à Saúde/normas , Atenção à Saúde/estatística & dados numéricosRESUMO
AIM: To characterize the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on diabetes diagnosis using data from Alberta's Tomorrow Project (ATP), a population-based cohort study of chronic diseases in Alberta, Canada. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The ATP participants who were free of diabetes on 1 April 2018 were included in the study. A time-segmented regression model was used to compare incidence rates of diabetes before the COVID-19 pandemic, during the first two COVID-19 states of emergency, and in the period when the state of emergency was relaxed, after adjusting for seasonality, sociodemographic factors, socioeconomic status, and lifestyle behaviours. RESULTS: Among 43 705 ATP participants free of diabetes (65.5% females, age 60.4 ± 9.5 years in 2018), the rate of diabetes was 4.75 per 1000 person-year (PY) during the COVID-19 pandemic (up to 31 March 2021), which was 32% lower (95% confidence interval [CI] 21%, 42%; p < 0.001) than pre-pandemic (6.98 per 1000 PY for the period 1 April 2018 to 16 March 2020). In multivariable regression analysis, the first COVID-19 state of emergency (first wave) was associated with an 87.3% (95% CI -98.6%, 13.9%; p = 0.07) reduction in diabetes diagnosis; this decreasing trend was sustained to the second COVID-19 state of emergency and no substantial rebound (increase) was observed when the COVID-19 state of emergency was relaxed. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 public health emergencies had a negative impact on diabetes diagnosis in Alberta. The reduction in diabetes diagnosis was likely due to province-wide health service disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic. Systematic plans to close the post-COVID-19 diagnostic gap are required in diabetes to avoid substantial downstream sequelae of undiagnosed disease.
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COVID-19 , Diabetes Mellitus , Feminino , Humanos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Idoso , Masculino , Estudos de Coortes , Estudos Longitudinais , Incidência , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Alberta/epidemiologia , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiologia , Trifosfato de AdenosinaRESUMO
PURPOSE OF REVIEW: This systematic review aims to inform the current state of evidence about the efficacy and effectiveness of medical cannabis use for the treatment of LBP, specifically on pain levels and overall opioid use for LBP. Searches were conducted in MEDLINE (PubMed), Embase, and CINAHL. The search was limited to the past 10 years (2011-2021). Study inclusion was determined by the critical appraisal process using the Joanna Briggs Institute framework. Only English language articles were included. Participant demographics included all adult individuals with LBP who were prescribed medical cannabis for LBP and may be concurrently using opioids for their LBP. Study quality and the risk of bias were both evaluated. A narrative synthesis approach was used. RECENT FINDINGS: A total of twelve studies were included in the synthesis: one randomized controlled trial (RCT), six observational studies (one prospective, four retrospective, and one cross-over), and five case studies. All study results, except for the RCT, indicated a decrease in LBP levels or opioid use over time after medical cannabis use. The RCT reported no statistically significant difference in LBP between cannabis and placebo groups. Low back pain (LBP) affects 568 million people worldwide. In the United States, LBP treatment represents more than half of regular opioid users. With the opioid epidemic, alternative methods, particularly medical cannabis, is now increasingly sought by practicing physicians and patients. Due to its infancy, there is minimal high-quality evidence to support medical cannabis use as a first line treatment for LBP.
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Dor Lombar , Maconha Medicinal , Humanos , Analgésicos Opioides/uso terapêutico , Dor Lombar/tratamento farmacológico , Maconha Medicinal/uso terapêutico , Ensaios Clínicos Controlados Aleatórios como AssuntoRESUMO
AIMS: To assess post-initiation predictors of discontinuation of sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors compared to dipeptidyl-peptidase-4 (DPP-4) inhibitors in the United Kingdom. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a comparative population-based retrospective cohort study using primary care data from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) with linked data to hospital and death records. We included new metformin users who initiated either SGLT2 inhibitors or DPP-4 inhibitors between January 2013 and October 2019. The main outcome was treatment discontinuation, defined as the first 90-day gap after the estimated treatment end date. We used a series of extended Cox models to assess which time-dependent predictors were associated with treatment discontinuation. To test if the hazard ratio of discontinuation for each predictor was statistically different between SGLT2 and DPP-4 inhibitors, an exposure-predictor interaction term was added to each model. RESULTS: There were 2550 new users of SGLT2 inhibitors and 8195 new users of DPP-4 inhibitors. Approximately 69% of SGLT2 inhibitor and 74% of DPP-4 inhibitor users had discontinued treatment by the end of follow-up. Occurrence of fractures after treatment initiation was a significant predictor of discontinuation of SGLT2 inhibitors (hazard ratio [HR] 4.13, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.12-8.06) but not DPP-4 inhibitors (HR 0.93, 95% CI 0.79-1.11). The rate of treatment discontinuation was significantly higher for those with low estimated glomerular filtration rate and minimal contact with the healthcare system. Efficacy endpoints, such as heart failure and glycated haemoglobin level, were not associated with treatment discontinuation. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings reflect some discrepancy between the available evidence and prescribing behaviour for SGLT2 inhibitors.
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Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2 , Inibidores da Dipeptidil Peptidase IV , Inibidores do Transportador 2 de Sódio-Glicose , Humanos , Estudos de Coortes , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/tratamento farmacológico , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/epidemiologia , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/complicações , Inibidores da Dipeptidil Peptidase IV/uso terapêutico , Glucose/uso terapêutico , Hipoglicemiantes/uso terapêutico , Estudos Retrospectivos , Sódio , Transportador 2 de Glucose-Sódio , Inibidores do Transportador 2 de Sódio-Glicose/uso terapêuticoRESUMO
OBJECTIVE: To construct a machine-learning (ML) model for health systems with organised falls prevention programmes to identify older adults at risk for fall-related admissions. DESIGN: This prognostic study used population-level administrative health data to develop an ML prediction model. SETTING: This study took place in Alberta, Canada during 2018-2019. PARTICIPANTS: Albertans aged 65 and older with at least one prior admission. Those with palliative conditions or emigrated out of Alberta were excluded. EXPOSURE: Unit of analysis was the individual person. MAIN OUTCOMES/MEASURES: We identified fall-related admissions. A CatBoost model was developed on 2018 data to predict risk of fall-related emergency department visits or hospitalisations. Temporal validation was done using 2019 data to evaluate model performance. We reported discrimination, calibration and other relevant metrics measured at the end of 2019 on both ranked predictions and predicted probability thresholds. A cost-savings simulation was performed using 2019 data. RESULTS: Final number of study participants was 224 445. The validation set had 203 584 participants with 19 389 fall-related events (9.5% pretest probability) and an ML model c-statistic of 0.70. The highest ranked predictions had post-test probabilities ranging from 40% to 50%. Net benefit analysis presented mixed results with some net benefit using the ML model in the 6%-30% range. The top 50 percentile of predicted risks represented nearly $C60 million in health system costs related to falls. Intervening on the top 25 or 50 percentiles of predicted risk could realise substantial (up to $C16 million) savings. CONCLUSION: ML prediction models based on population-level administrative data can assist health systems with fall prevention programmes identify older adults at risk of fall-related admissions and reduce costs. ML predictions based on ranked predictions or probability thresholds could guide subsequent interventions to mitigate fall risks. Increased access to diverse forms of data could improve ML performance and further reduce costs.
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Acidentes por Quedas , Benchmarking , Humanos , Idoso , Alberta/epidemiologia , Acidentes por Quedas/prevenção & controle , Hospitalização , Aprendizado de MáquinaRESUMO
OBJECTIVE: To develop a machine-learning (ML) model using administrative data to estimate risk of adverse outcomes within 30-days of a benzodiazepine (BZRA) dispensation in older adults for use by health departments/regulators. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: This study was conducted in Alberta, Canada during 2018-2019 in Albertans 65 years of age and older. Those with any history of malignancy or palliative care were excluded. EXPOSURE: Each BZRA dispensation from a community pharmacy served as the unit of analysis. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: ML algorithms were developed on 2018 administrative data to predict risk of any-cause hospitalization, emergency department visit or death within 30-days of a BZRA dispensation. Validation on 2019 administrative data was done using XGBoost to evaluate discrimination, calibration and other relevant metrics on ranked predictions. Daily and quarterly predictions were simulated on 2019 data. RESULTS: 65,063 study participants were included which represented 633,333 BZRA dispensation during 2018-2019. The validation set had 314,615 dispensations linked to 55,928 all-cause outcomes representing a pre-test probability of 17.8%. C-statistic for the XGBoost model was 0.75. Measuring risk at the end of 2019, the top 0.1 percentile of predicted risk had a LR + of 40.31 translating to a post-test probability of 90%. Daily and quarterly classification simulations resulted in uninformative predictions with positive likelihood ratios less than 10 in all risk prediction categories. Previous history of admissions was ranked highest in variable importance. CONCLUSION: Developing ML models using only administrative health data may not provide health regulators with sufficient informative predictions to use as decision aids for potential interventions, especially if considering daily or quarterly classifications of BZRA risks in older adults. ML models may be informative for this context if yearly classifications are preferred. Health regulators should have access to other types of data to improve ML prediction.
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Benzodiazepinas , Hospitalização , Humanos , Idoso , Benzodiazepinas/efeitos adversos , Prognóstico , Aprendizado de Máquina , CanadáRESUMO
Challenges exist for the management of diabetes care in First Nations populations. RADAR (Reorganizing the Approach to Diabetes through the Application of Registries) is a culturally appropriate, innovative care model that incorporates a disease registry and electronic health record for local care provision with remote coordination, tailored for First Nations people. This study assessed the effectiveness of RADAR on patient outcomes and diabetes care organization in participating communities in Alberta, Canada. It revealed significant improvements in outcomes after 2 years, with 91% of patients achieving a primary combined end point of a 10% improvement in or persistence at target for A1C, systolic blood pressure, and/or LDL cholesterol. Qualitative assessment showed that diabetes care organization also improved. These multimethod findings support tailored diabetes care practices in First Nations populations.
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BACKGROUND: Sarcopenia is a predictor of survival in patients with esophageal cancer. The objective of this research was to obtain insight into how changes in sarcopenia influence survival in resectable esophageal cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A retrospective cohort of patients with esophageal cancer undergoing tri-modality therapy was selected. Body composition parameters from the staging, post-neoadjuvant, and 1-year surveillance computed tomography (CT) scans were calculated. Overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were evaluated using the Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test, as well as multivariable Cox-proportional hazards models. RESULTS: Of 141 patients, 118 had images at all three timepoints. The median DFS and OS were 33.2 [95% confidence interval (CI) 19.1-73.7] and 34.5 (95% CI 23.1-57.6) months, respectively. Sarcopenia classified by the staging CT was present in 20 (17.0%) patients. This changed to 45 (38.1%) patients by the post-neoadjuvant scan, and 44 (37.3%) by the surveillance scan. In multivariable analysis, sarcopenia at the post-neoadjuvant scan was significantly associated with OS [hazards ratio (HR) 2.65, 95% CI 1.59-4.40; p < 0.001] and DFS (HR 1.80, 95% CI 1.03-3.13; p = 0.038). The net change in skeletal muscle index was associated with OS (HR 0.93, 95% CI 0.90-0.97; p < 0.001) and DFS (HR 0.94, 95% CI 0.91-0.98; p = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Patients who develop sarcopenia as a consequence of skeletal muscle wasting during neoadjuvant therapy are at risk for worse DFS and OS. Patients who have a net loss of muscle over time may be at high risk for early disease recurrence.
Assuntos
Neoplasias Esofágicas , Sarcopenia , Humanos , Sarcopenia/complicações , Prognóstico , Estudos Retrospectivos , Recidiva Local de Neoplasia/patologia , Neoplasias Esofágicas/complicações , Neoplasias Esofágicas/cirurgia , Músculo Esquelético/patologiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: European studies have shown that nonfasting remnant cholesterol can be a strong predictor of cardiovascular disease risk and may contribute to identifying residual risk; however, Canadian data are lacking on nonfasting remnant cholesterol. In this study, we aimed to determine the relation between nonfasting remnant cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol and cardiovascular disease among people in Alberta. METHODS: In this retrospective analysis, we used data from Alberta's Tomorrow Project, a large prospective cohort that enrolled Albertans aged 35-69 years (2000-2015). Participants with consent to data linkage, with complete nonfasting lipid data and without existing cardiovascular disease were included. The nonfasting remnant cholesterol and LDL cholesterol relation with a composite cardiovascular disease outcome of major incident cardiovascular diagnoses, ascertained by linking to Alberta Health databases, was determined by multivariable logistic regression, adjusting for age, sex, statin use, comorbidities, and LDL cholesterol or remnant cholesterol. RESULTS: The final sample of 13 988 participants was 69.4% female, and the mean age was 61.8 (standard deviation [SD] 9.7) years. Follow-up time was approximately 15 years. Mean remnant cholesterol was significantly higher among individuals with versus without cardiovascular disease (0.87 [SD 0.40] mmol/L v. 0.78 [SD 0.38] mmol/L, standardized mean difference [SMD] -0.24), and mean LDL cholesterol was significantly lower (2.69 [SD 0.93] mmol/L v. 2.88 [SD 0.84] mmol/L, SMD 0.21). The odds of incident composite cardiovascular disease were significantly increased per mmol/L increase in remnant cholesterol (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.48, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.27-1.73) but significantly decreased per mmol/L increase in LDL cholesterol (adjusted OR 0.73, 95% CI 0.68-0.79). INTERPRETATION: In this large Albertan cohort of predominantly older females, nonfasting remnant cholesterol had a positive relation with cardiovascular disease incidence, whereas LDL cholesterol did not. These findings support the clinical utility of measuring non-fasting remnant cholesterol to detect cardiovascular disease risk.