Forty Years of Inferential Methods in the Journals of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

We are launching a series to celebrate the 40th anniversary of the first issue of Molecular Biology and Evolution. In 2024, we will publish virtual issues containing selected papers published in the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution journals, Molecular Biology and Evolution and Genome Biology and Evolution. Each virtual issue will be accompanied by a perspective that highlights the historic and contemporary contributions of our journals to a specific topic in molecular evolution. This perspective, the first in the series, presents an account of the broad array of methods that have been published in the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution journals, including methods to infer phylogenies, to test hypotheses in a phylogenetic framework, and to infer population genetic processes. We also mention many of the software implementations that make methods tractable for empiricists. In short, the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution community has much to celebrate after four decades of publishing high-quality science including numerous important inferential methods.

No Evidence that Selection on Synonymous Codon Usage Affects Patterns of Protein Evolution in Bacteria.

Bias in synonymous codon usage has been reported across all kingdoms of life. Evidence suggests that codon usage bias is often driven by selective pressures, typically for translational efficiency. These selective pressures have been shown to depress the rate at which synonymous sites evolve. We hypothesize that selection on synonymous codon use could also slow the rate of protein evolution if a non-synonymous mutation changes the codon from being preferred to unpreferred. We test this hypothesis by looking at patterns of protein evolution using polymorphism and substitution data in two bacterial species, Escherichia coli and Streptococcus pneumoniae. We find no evidence that non-synonymous mutations that change a codon from being unpreferred to preferred are more common than the opposite. Overall, selection on codon bias seems to have little influence over non-synonymous polymorphism or substitution patterns.

What Determines Levels of Mitochondrial Genetic Diversity in Birds?

What determines levels of genetic diversity in mitochondrial DNA remains unresolved. We have investigated the factors that are correlated to the level of synonymous diversity of mitochondrial DNA in more than 300 bird species. We find that diversity is significantly correlated to clutch and range size, but not significantly correlated to many other variables including body mass, latitude, and longevity. The correlation between diversity and range appears to be a consequence of a correlation between range and effective population size since a measure of the effectiveness of natural selection, which is expected to be correlated to the effective population size, is also correlated to range. The slope of the relationship between diversity and range is shallow, consistent with Lewontin's paradox, and very similar to the relationship found in mammals.

Strong evidence for the adaptive walk model of gene evolution in Drosophila and Arabidopsis.

Understanding the dynamics of species adaptation to their environments has long been a central focus of the study of evolution. Theories of adaptation propose that populations evolve by "walking" in a fitness landscape. This "adaptive walk" is characterised by a pattern of diminishing returns, where populations further away from their fitness optimum take larger steps than those closer to their optimal conditions. Hence, we expect young genes to evolve faster and experience mutations with stronger fitness effects than older genes because they are further away from their fitness optimum. Testing this hypothesis, however, constitutes an arduous task. Young genes are small, encode proteins with a higher degree of intrinsic disorder, are expressed at lower levels, and are involved in species-specific adaptations. Since all these factors lead to increased protein evolutionary rates, they could be masking the effect of gene age. While controlling for these factors, we used population genomic data sets of Arabidopsis and Drosophila and estimated the rate of adaptive substitutions across genes from different phylostrata. We found that a gene's evolutionary age significantly impacts the molecular rate of adaptation. Moreover, we observed that substitutions in young genes tend to have larger physicochemical effects. Our study, therefore, provides strong evidence that molecular evolution follows an adaptive walk model across a large evolutionary timescale.

Signatures of Selection on Mitonuclear Integrated Genes Uncover Hidden Mitogenomic Variation in Fur Seals.

Nuclear copies of mitochondrial genes (numts) are commonplace in vertebrate genomes and have been characterized in many species. However, relatively little attention has been paid to understanding their evolutionary origins and to disentangling alternative sources of insertions. Numts containing genes with intact mitochondrial reading frames represent good candidates for this purpose. The sequences of the genes they contain can be compared with their mitochondrial homologs to characterize synonymous to nonsynonymous substitution rates, which can shed light on the selection pressures these genes have been subjected to. Here, we characterize 25 numts in the Antarctic fur seal (Arctocephalus gazella) genome. Among those containing genes with intact mitochondrial reading frames, three carry multiple substitutions in comparison to their mitochondrial homologs. Our analyses reveal that one represents a historic insertion subjected to strong purifying selection since it colonized the Otarioidea in a genomic region enriched in retrotransposons. By contrast, the other two numts appear to be more recent and their large number of substitutions can be attributed to noncanonical insertions, either the integration of heteroplasmic mtDNA or hybridization. Our study sheds new light on the evolutionary history of pinniped numts and uncovers the presence of hidden sources of mitonuclear variation.

A new test suggests hundreds of amino acid polymorphisms in humans are subject to balancing selection.

The role that balancing selection plays in the maintenance of genetic diversity remains unresolved. Here, we introduce a new test, based on the McDonald-Kreitman test, in which the number of polymorphisms that are shared between populations is contrasted to those that are private at selected and neutral sites. We show that this simple test is robust to a variety of demographic changes, and that it can also give a direct estimate of the number of shared polymorphisms that are directly maintained by balancing selection. We apply our method to population genomic data from humans and provide some evidence that hundreds of nonsynonymous polymorphisms are subject to balancing selection.

On the prospect of achieving accurate joint estimation of selection with population history.

As both natural selection and population history can affect genome-wide patterns of variation, disentangling the contributions of each has remained as a major challenge in population genetics. We here discuss historical and recent progress towards this goal-highlighting theoretical and computational challenges that remain to be addressed, as well as inherent difficulties in dealing with model complexity and model violations-and offer thoughts on potentially fruitful next steps.

Recommendations for improving statistical inference in population genomics.

The field of population genomics has grown rapidly in response to the recent advent of affordable, large-scale sequencing technologies. As opposed to the situation during the majority of the 20th century, in which the development of theoretical and statistical population genetic insights outpaced the generation of data to which they could be applied, genomic data are now being produced at a far greater rate than they can be meaningfully analyzed and interpreted. With this wealth of data has come a tendency to focus on fitting specific (and often rather idiosyncratic) models to data, at the expense of a careful exploration of the range of possible underlying evolutionary processes. For example, the approach of directly investigating models of adaptive evolution in each newly sequenced population or species often neglects the fact that a thorough characterization of ubiquitous nonadaptive processes is a prerequisite for accurate inference. We here describe the perils of these tendencies, present our consensus views on current best practices in population genomic data analysis, and highlight areas of statistical inference and theory that are in need of further attention. Thereby, we argue for the importance of defining a biologically relevant baseline model tuned to the details of each new analysis, of skepticism and scrutiny in interpreting model fitting results, and of carefully defining addressable hypotheses and underlying uncertainties.

Patterns of selection in the evolution of a transposable element.

Transposable elements are a major component of most eukaryotic genomes. Here, we present a new approach which allows us to study patterns of natural selection in the evolution of transposable elements over short time scales. The method uses the alignment of all elements with intact gag/pol genes of a transposable element family from a single genome. We predict that the ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous variants in the alignment should decrease as a function of the frequency of the variants, because elements with nonsynonymous variants that reduce transposition will have fewer progeny. We apply our method to Sirevirus long-terminal repeat retrotransposons that are abundant in maize and other plant species and show that nonsynonymous to synonymous variants declines as variant frequency increases, indicating that negative selection is acting strongly on the Sirevirus genome. The asymptotic value of nonsynonymous to synonymous variants suggests that at least 85% of all nonsynonymous mutations in the transposable element reduce transposition. Crucially, these patterns in nonsynonymous to synonymous variants are only predicted to occur if the gene products from a particular transposable element insertion preferentially promote the transposition of the same insertion. Overall, by using large numbers of intact elements, this study sheds new light on the selective processes that act on transposable elements.

Changing Population Size in McDonald-Kreitman Style Analyses: Artifactual Correlations and Adaptive Evolution between Humans and Chimpanzees.

It is known that methods to estimate the rate of adaptive evolution, which are based on the McDonald-Kreitman test, can be biased by changes in effective population size. Here, we demonstrate theoretically that changes in population size can also generate an artifactual correlation between the rate of adaptive evolution and any factor that is correlated to the strength of selection acting against deleterious mutations. In this context, we have investigated whether several site-level factors influence the rate of adaptive evolution in the divergence of humans and chimpanzees, two species that have been inferred to have undergone population size contraction since they diverged. We find that the rate of adaptive evolution, relative to the rate of mutation, is higher for more exposed amino acids, lower for amino acid pairs that are more dissimilar in terms of their polarity, volume, and lower for amino acid pairs that are subject to stronger purifying selection, as measured by the ratio of the numbers of nonsynonymous to synonymous polymorphisms (pN/pS). All of these correlations are opposite to the artifactual correlations expected under contracting population size. We therefore conclude that these correlations are genuine.

Factors That Affect the Rates of Adaptive and Nonadaptive Evolution at the Gene Level in Humans and Chimpanzees.

The rate of amino acid substitution has been shown to be correlated to a number of factors including the rate of recombination, the age of the gene, the length of the protein, mean expression level, and gene function. However, the extent to which these correlations are due to adaptive and nonadaptive evolution has not been studied in detail, at least not in hominids. We find that the rate of adaptive evolution is significantly positively correlated to the rate of recombination, protein length and gene expression level, and negatively correlated to gene age. These correlations remain significant when each factor is controlled for in turn, except when controlling for expression in an analysis of protein length; and they also generally remain significant when biased gene conversion is taken into account. However, the positive correlations could be an artifact of population size contraction. We also find that the rate of nonadaptive evolution is negatively correlated to each factor, and all these correlations survive controlling for each other and biased gene conversion. Finally, we examine the effect of gene function on rates of adaptive and nonadaptive evolution; we confirm that virus-interacting proteins (VIPs) have higher rates of adaptive and lower rates of nonadaptive evolution, but we also demonstrate that there is significant variation in the rate of adaptive and nonadaptive evolution between GO categories when removing VIPs. We estimate that the VIP/non-VIP axis explains about 5-8 fold more of the variance in evolutionary rate than GO categories.

Mitochondrial DNA Sequence Diversity in Mammals: A Correlation between the Effective and Census Population Sizes.

What determines the level of genetic diversity of a species remains one of the enduring problems of population genetics. Because neutral diversity depends upon the product of the effective population size and mutation rate, there is an expectation that diversity should be correlated to measures of census population size. This correlation is often observed for nuclear but not for mitochondrial DNA. Here, we revisit the question of whether mitochondrial DNA sequence diversity is correlated to census population size by compiling the largest data set to date, using 639 mammalian species. In a multiple regression, we find that nucleotide diversity is significantly correlated to both range size and mass-specific metabolic rate, but not a variety of other factors. We also find that a measure of the effective population size, the ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous diversity, is also significantly negatively correlated to both range size and mass-specific metabolic rate. These results together suggest that species with larger ranges have larger effective population sizes. The slope of the relationship between diversity and range is such that doubling the range increases diversity by 12-20%, providing one of the first quantifications of the relationship between diversity and the census population size.

Impact of Mutation Rate and Selection at Linked Sites on DNA Variation across the Genomes of Humans and Other Homininae.

DNA diversity varies across the genome of many species. Variation in diversity across a genome might arise from regional variation in the mutation rate, variation in the intensity and mode of natural selection, and regional variation in the recombination rate. We show that both noncoding and nonsynonymous diversity are positively correlated to a measure of the mutation rate and the recombination rate and negatively correlated to the density of conserved sequences in 50 kb windows across the genomes of humans and nonhuman homininae. Interestingly, we find that although noncoding diversity is equally affected by these three genomic variables, nonsynonymous diversity is mostly dominated by the density of conserved sequences. The positive correlation between diversity and our measure of the mutation rate seems to be largely a direct consequence of regions with higher mutation rates having more diversity. However, the positive correlation with recombination rate and the negative correlation with the density of conserved sequences suggest that selection at linked sites also affect levels of diversity. This is supported by the observation that the ratio of the number of nonsynonymous to noncoding polymorphisms is negatively correlated to a measure of the effective population size across the genome. We show these patterns persist even when we restrict our analysis to GC-conservative mutations, demonstrating that the patterns are not driven by GC biased gene conversion. In conclusion, our comparative analyses describe how recombination rate, gene density, and mutation rate interact to produce the patterns of DNA diversity that we observe along the hominine genomes.

Investigating Evolutionary Rate Variation in Bacteria.

Rates of molecular evolution are known to vary between species and across all kingdoms of life. Here, we explore variation in the rate at which bacteria accumulate mutations (accumulation rates) in their natural environments over short periods of time. We have compiled estimates of the accumulation rate for over 34 species of bacteria, the majority of which are pathogens evolving either within an individual host or during outbreaks. Across species, we find that accumulation rates vary by over 3700-fold. We investigate whether accumulation rates are associated to a number potential correlates including genome size, GC content, measures of the natural selection and the time frame over which the accumulation rates were estimated. After controlling for phylogenetic non-independence, we find that the accumulation rate is not significantly correlated to any factor. Furthermore, contrary to previous results, we find that it is not impacted by the time frame of which the estimate was made. However, our study, with only 34 species, is likely to lack power to detect anything but large effects. We suggest that much of the rate variation may be explained by differences between species in the generation time in the wild.

The comparative population genetics of Neisseria meningitidis and Neisseria gonorrhoeae.

Neisseria meningitidis and N. gonorrhoeae are closely related pathogenic bacteria. To compare their population genetics, we compiled a dataset of 1,145 genes found across 20 N. meningitidis and 15 N. gonorrhoeae genomes. We find that N. meningitidis is seven-times more diverse than N. gonorrhoeae in their combined core genome. Both species have acquired the majority of their diversity by recombination with divergent strains, however, we find that N. meningitidis has acquired more of its diversity by recombination than N. gonorrhoeae. We find that linkage disequilibrium (LD) declines rapidly across the genomes of both species. Several observations suggest that N. meningitidis has a higher effective population size than N. gonorrhoeae; it is more diverse, the ratio of non-synonymous to synonymous polymorphism is lower, and LD declines more rapidly to a lower asymptote in N. meningitidis. The two species share a modest amount of variation, half of which seems to have been acquired by lateral gene transfer and half from their common ancestor. We investigate whether diversity varies across the genome of each species and find that it does. Much of this variation is due to different levels of lateral gene transfer. However, we also find some evidence that the effective population size varies across the genome. We test for adaptive evolution in the core genome using a McDonald-Kreitman test and by considering the diversity around non-synonymous sites that are fixed for different alleles in the two species. We find some evidence for adaptive evolution using both approaches.

Does Adaptive Protein Evolution Proceed by Large or Small Steps at the Amino Acid Level?

A long-standing question in evolutionary biology is the relative contribution of large and small effect mutations to the adaptive process. We have investigated this question in proteins by estimating the rate of adaptive evolution between all pairs of amino acids separated by one mutational step using a McDonald-Kreitman type approach and genome-wide data from several Drosophila species. We find that the rate of adaptive evolution is highest among amino acids that are more similar. This is partly due to the fact that the proportion of mutations that are adaptive is higher among more similar amino acids. We also find that the rate of neutral evolution between amino acids is higher among more similar amino acids. Overall our results suggest that both the adaptive and nonadaptive evolution of proteins are dominated by substitutions between similar amino acids.