EASY-APP: An artificial intelligence model and application for early and easy prediction of severity in acute pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND: Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a potentially severe or even fatal inflammation of the pancreas. Early identification of patients at high risk for developing a severe course of the disease is crucial for preventing organ failure and death. Most of the former predictive scores require many parameters or at least 24 h to predict the severity; therefore, the early therapeutic window is often missed. METHODS: The early achievable severity index (EASY) is a multicentre, multinational, prospective and observational study (ISRCTN10525246). The predictions were made using machine learning models. We used the scikit-learn, xgboost and catboost Python packages for modelling. We evaluated our models using fourfold cross-validation, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the area under the ROC curve (AUC), and accuracy metrics were calculated on the union of the test sets of the cross-validation. The most critical factors and their contribution to the prediction were identified using a modern tool of explainable artificial intelligence called SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). RESULTS: The prediction model was based on an international cohort of 1184 patients and a validation cohort of 3543 patients. The best performing model was an XGBoost classifier with an average AUC score of 0.81 ± 0.033 and an accuracy of 89.1%, and the model improved with experience. The six most influential features were the respiratory rate, body temperature, abdominal muscular reflex, gender, age and glucose level. Using the XGBoost machine learning algorithm for prediction, the SHAP values for the explanation and the bootstrapping method to estimate confidence, we developed a free and easy-to-use web application in the Streamlit Python-based framework (http://easy-app.org/). CONCLUSIONS: The EASY prediction score is a practical tool for identifying patients at high risk for severe AP within hours of hospital admission. The web application is available for clinicians and contributes to the improvement of the model.

Increased sTREM-1 levels identify cirrhotic patients with bacterial infection and predict their 90-day mortality.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Patients with cirrhosis are susceptible to bacterial infections (BIs) that are major causes of specific complications and mortality. However, the diagnosis of BIs can often be difficult in advanced disease stage since their symptoms may overlap with the ones of acute decompensation (AD). Soluble triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells-1 (sTREM-1) is released from monocytes/macrophages and neutrophils during activation and has been reported to correlate with activity of various inflammatory processes. We investigated its diagnostic and prognostic performance in patients with cirrhosis and BI. METHODS: Sera of 269 patients were assayed for sTREM-1 by ELISA (172 outpatients and 97 patients with AD of whom 56 had BI). We investigated capacity of sTREM-1 to identify patients with BI and conducted a 90-day follow-up observational study to assess its possible association with short-term mortality. RESULTS: sTREM-1 levels were significantly higher in patients with more severe liver disease, BI, and acute-on-chronic liver failure than in patients without these conditions. sTREM-1 had similar accuracy to CRP identifying BI [sTREM-1: AUROC (95%CI) 0.804 (0.711-0.897), p < 0.0001; CRP: 0.791 (0.702-0.881), p < 0.0001)] among AD patients. The combination of these two molecules and the presence of ascites into a composite score significantly increased their discriminative power (AUROC: 0.878, 95%CI: 0.812-0.944, p < 0.0001). High sTREM-1 level (>660 pg/mL) was an independent predictor of 90-day mortality in patients with BI [HR: 2.941, (95%CI: 1.009-8.573), p = 0.048] in our multivariate model. CONCLUSIONS: Use of sTREM-1 could increase the recognition of BIs in cirrhosis and help clinicians in mortality risk assessment of these patients.

Hypertriglyceridemia-induced acute pancreatitis: A prospective, multicenter, international cohort analysis of 716 acute pancreatitis cases.

BACKGROUND: Hypertriglyceridemia is the third most common cause of acute pancreatitis (AP). It has been shown that hypertriglyceridemia aggravates the severity and related complications of AP; however, detailed analyses of large cohorts are contradictory. Our aim was to investigate the dose-dependent effect of hypertriglyceridemia on AP. METHODS: AP patients over 18 years old who underwent triglyceride measurement within the initial three days were included into our cohort analysis from a prospective international, multicenter AP registry operated by the Hungarian Pancreatic Study Group. Data on 716 AP cases were analyzed. Six groups were created based on the highest triglyceride level (<1.7 mmol/l, 1.7-2.19 mmol/l, 2.2-5.59 mmol/l, 5.6-11.29 mmol/l, 11.3-22.59 mmol/l, ≥22.6 mmol/l). RESULTS: Hypertriglyceridemia (≥1.7 mmol/l) presented in 30.6% of the patients and was significantly and dose-dependently associated with younger age and male gender. In 7.7% of AP cases, hypertriglyceridemia was considered as a causative etiological factor (≥11.3 mmol/l); however, 43.6% of these cases were associated with other etiologies (alcohol and biliary). Hypertriglyceridemia was significantly and dose-dependently related to obesity and diabetes. The rates of local complications and organ failure and maximum CRP level were significantly and dose-dependently raised by hypertriglyceridemia. Triglyceride above 11.3 mmol/l was linked to a significantly higher incidence of moderately severe AP and longer hospital stay, whereas triglyceride over 22.6 mmol/l was significantly associated with severe AP as well. CONCLUSION: Hypertriglyceridemia dose-dependently aggravates the severity and related complications of AP. Diagnostic workup for hypertriglyceridemia requires better awareness regardless of the etiology of AP.

A Multicenter, International Cohort Analysis of 1435 Cases to Support Clinical Trial Design in Acute Pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND: C-reactive protein level (CRP) and white blood cell count (WBC) have been variably used in clinical trials on acute pancreatitis (AP). We assessed their potential role. METHODS: First, we investigated studies which have used CRP or WBC, to describe their current role in trials on AP. Second, we extracted the data of 1435 episodes of AP from our registry. CRP and WBC on admission, within 24 h from the onset of pain and their highest values were analyzed. Descriptive statistical tools as Kruskal-Wallis, Mann-Whitney U, Levene's F tests, Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and AUC (Area Under the Curve) with 95% confidence interval (CI) were performed. RESULTS: Our literature review showed extreme variability of CRP used as an inclusion criterion or as a primary outcome or both in past and current trials on AP. In our cohort, CRP levels on admission poorly predicted mortality and severe cases of AP; AUC: 0.669 (CI:0.569-0.770); AUC:0.681 (CI: 0.601-0.761), respectively. CRP levels measured within 24 h from the onset of pain failed to predict mortality or severity; AUC: 0.741 (CI:0.627-0.854); AUC:0.690 (CI:0.586-0.793), respectively. The highest CRP during hospitalization had equally poor predictive accuracy for mortality and severity AUC:0.656 (CI:0.544-0.768); AUC:0.705 (CI:0.640-0.769) respectively. CRP within 24 h from the onset of pain used as an inclusion criterion markedly increased the combined event rate of mortality and severe AP (13% for CRP > 25 mg/l and 28% for CRP > 200 mg/l). CONCLUSION: CRP within 24 h from the onset of pain as an inclusion criterion elevates event rates and reduces the number of patients required in trials on AP.

HLA-DQ2 homozygosis increases tTGA levels at diagnosis but does not influence the clinical phenotype of coeliac disease: A multicentre study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Magnitude of gluten-specific T-cell responses in coeliac disease (CD) might be dependent on HLA-DQ2 gene dose. We aimed to investigate the effects of HLA-DQB1*02 allele dose on clinical outcomes. METHODS: We reviewed the charts of all coeliac patients attending to three Hungarian university clinics after 1997 and included those patients, who (a) were diagnosed with CD, (b) underwent high-resolution HLA typing and (c) were ≥18 years at the time of data collection. HLA typing was performed to determine DQB1*02 allele dose. Patients were divided into risk groups by DQB1*02 allele dose, as follows: high-, intermediate- and low-risk groups corresponded to a double, single and zero doses, respectively. We used ANOVA and Pearson's chi-squared test to explore association between HLA risk and clinical variables. RESULTS: A total of 727 coeliac patients attended the clinics but only 105 (14.4%) patients were eligible for inclusion. High, intermediate and low HLA risk patients comprised 35.3%, 52.3% and 12.3% of the study population, respectively. Double dose of HLA-DQB1*02 was more frequent in patient with high tTGA level (>10 times the upper limit of normal; p = 0.045). Gene dose was not associated with younger age at diagnosis (p = 0.549), gender (p = 0.739), more severe diagnostic histology (p = 0.318), more frequent classical presentation (p = 0.846), anaemia (p = 0.611), metabolic bone disease (p = 0.374), dermatitis herpetiformis (p = 0.381) and autoimmune diseases (p = 0.837). CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows a significant gene dose effect in terms of tTGA level at diagnosis, but no significant association between HLA-DQB1*02 allele dose and the clinical outcomes in CD.

Lectin-complement pathway molecules are decreased in patients with cirrhosis and constitute the risk of bacterial infections.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Lectin pathway molecules of the complement system are synthesized by hepatocytes and have pivotal role in innate host defence against infectious organisms. Ficolins (FCNs) act as soluble pattern recognition molecules, while mannan-binding lectin serine proteases(MASPs) do as effector molecules in elimination of pathogens. We aimed to study the significance of low level of these molecules in the development of cirrhosis-associated bacterial infections, which has not been elucidated so far. METHODS: Sera of 266 stable outpatients with cirrhosis and 160 healthy subjects were assayed for a panel of lectin molecules (FCN-2, FCN-3 and MASP-2) by ELISA. In cirrhosis, a 5-year follow-up observational study was conducted to assess a possible association between lectin levels and development of clinically significant bacterial infections(CSI). RESULTS: FCN-2, FCN-3 and MASP-2 levels were significantly lower in cirrhosis compared to healthy subjects and decreased according to disease severity (P<.001 for all molecules). In Kaplan-Meier analysis, development of CSI was associated with low level of FCN-2 (<427 ng/mL, pLogRank=0.047) and FCN-3 (<4857 ng/mL, pLogRank=0.029), but not with MASP-2 deficiency (<100 ng/mL, pLogRank=0.306). Combined FCN deficiency was associated with increased risk of development of bacterial infections in a step-wise manner. Patients with low level of both FCNs had higher cumulative probability of CSI (63.8%) compared to those with low level of one or normal FCN (52.7% and 45.7%, pLogRank=0.016). Neither FCN serum profile, nor MASP-2 deficiency were associated with infection-related mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Low level of FCNs associated with hepatic insufficiency might be considered as an additional constituent of cirrhosis-associated immune dysfunction.

Presence of anti-microbial antibodies in liver cirrhosis--a tell-tale sign of compromised immunity?

BACKGROUND: Bacterial translocation plays important role in the complications of liver cirrhosis. Antibody formation against various microbial antigens is common in Crohn's disease and considered to be caused by sustained exposure to gut microflora constituents. We hypothesized that anti-microbial antibodies are present in patients with liver cirrhosis and may be associated with the development of bacterial infections. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Sera of 676 patients with various chronic liver diseases (autoimmune diseases: 266, viral hepatitis C: 124, and liver cirrhosis of different etiology: 286) and 100 controls were assayed for antibodies to Saccharomyces cerevisiae (ASCA) and to antigens derived from two intestinal bacterial isolates (one gram positive, one gram negative, neither is Escherichia coli). In patients with liver cirrhosis, we also prospectively recorded the development of severe episodes of bacterial infection. ASCA and anti-OMP Plus™ antibodies were present in 38.5% and 62.6% of patients with cirrhosis and in 16% and 20% of controls, respectively (p<0.001). Occurrence of these antibodies was more frequent in cases of advanced cirrhosis (according to Child-Pugh and MELD score; p<0.001) or in the presence of ascites (p<0.001). During the median follow-up of 425 days, 81 patients (28.3%) presented with severe bacterial infections. Anti-microbial antibody titers (p = 0.003), as well as multiple seroreactivity (p = 0.036), was associated with infectious events. In logistic regression analysis, the presence of ascites (OR: 1.62, 95%CI: 1.16-2.25), co-morbidities (OR: 2.22, 95%CI: 1.27-3.86), and ASCA positivity (OR: 1.59, 95%CI: 1.07-2.36) were independent risk factors for severe infections. A shorter time period until the first infection was associated with the presence of ASCA (p = 0.03) and multiple seropositivity (p = 0.037) by Kaplan-Meier analysis, and with Child-Pugh stage (p = 0.018, OR: 1.85) and co-morbidities (p<0.001, OR: 2.02) by Cox-regression analysis. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The present study suggests that systemic reactivity to microbial components reflects compromised mucosal immunity in patients with liver cirrhosis, further supporting the possible role of bacterial translocation in the formation of anti-microbial antibodies.

Anti-microbial antibodies in celiac disease: trick or treat?

AIM: To determine the prevalence of a new set of anti-glycan and anti-outer membrane protein (anti-OMP) antibodies in a Hungarian cohort of adult Celiac disease (CD) patients. METHODS: 190 consecutive CD patients [M/F: 71/119, age:39.9 (SD:14.1) years], 100 healthy, and 48 gastrointestinal controls were tested for glycan anti-Saccharomyces cerevisiae (gASCA), anti-laminaribioside (ALCA), anti-chitobioside, anti-mannobioside, anti-OMP antibodies and major NOD2/CARD15 mutations. Thirty out of 82 CD patients enrolled at the time of diagnosis were re-evaluated for the same antibodies after longstanding gluten-free diet (GFD). RESULTS: 65.9% of the CD patients were positive for at least one of the tested antibodies at the time of the diagnosis. Except anti-OMP and ALCA, anti-microbial antibodies were exclusively seen in untreated CD; however, the overall sensitivity was low. Any glycan positivity (LR+: 3.13; 95% CI: 2.08-4.73) was associated with an increased likelihood ratio for diagnosing CD. Significant correlation was found between the levels of anti-glycan and anti-endomysial or anti-transglutaminase antibodies. Anti-glycan positivity was lost after longstanding GFD. Anti-glycan antibody titers were associated with symptoms at presentation, but not the presence of NOD2/CARD15 mutations. Patients with severe malabsorption more frequently had multiple antibodies at diagnosis (P = 0.019). CONCLUSION: The presence of anti-glycan antibodies in CD seems to be secondary to the impaired small bowel mucosa which can lead to increased antigen presentation. Furthermore, anti-glycan positivity may be considered an additional marker of CD and dietary adherence.

Haptoglobin polymorphism: a novel genetic risk factor for celiac disease development and its clinical manifestations.

BACKGROUND: Haptoglobin (Hp) alpha-chain alleles 1 and 2 account for 3 phenotypes that may influence the course of inflammatory diseases via biologically important differences in their antioxidant, scavenging, and immunomodulatory properties. Hp1-1 genotype results in the production of small dimeric, Hp2-1 linear, and Hp2-2 cyclic polymeric haptoglobin molecules. We investigated the haptoglobin polymorphism in patients with celiac disease and its possible association to the presenting symptoms. METHODS: We studied 712 unrelated, biopsy-proven Hungarian celiac patients (357 children, 355 adults; severe malabsorption 32.9%, minor gastrointestinal symptoms 22.8%, iron deficiency anemia 9.4%, dermatitis herpetiformis 15.6%, silent disease 7.2%, other 12.1%) and 384 healthy subjects. We determined haptoglobin phenotypes by gel electrophoresis and assigned corresponding genotypes. RESULTS: Hp2-1 was associated with a significant risk for celiac disease (P = 0.0006, odds ratio [OR] 1.54, 95% CI 1.20-1.98; prevalence 56.9% in patients vs 46.1% in controls). It was also overrepresented among patients with mild symptoms (69.2%) or silent disease (72.5%). Hp2-2 was less frequent in patients than in controls (P = 0.0023), but patients having this phenotype were at an increased risk for severe malabsorption (OR 2.21, 95% CI 1.60-3.07) and accounted for 45.3% of all malabsorption cases. Celiac and dermatitis herpetiformis patients showed similar haptoglobin phenotype distributions. CONCLUSIONS: The haptoglobin polymorphism is associated with susceptibility to celiac disease and its clinical presentations. The predominant genotype in the celiac population was Hp2-1, but Hp2-2 predisposed to a more severe clinical course. The phenotype-dependent effect of haptoglobin may result from the molecule's structural and functional properties.

New serological markers for inflammatory bowel disease are associated with earlier age at onset, complicated disease behavior, risk for surgery, and NOD2/CARD15 genotype in a Hungarian IBD cohort.

BACKGROUND: Antibodies to Saccharomyces cerevisiae (S. cerevisiae) (ASCA) and porin protein-C of Escherichia coli (anti-OmpC) are associated with disease phenotype and may be of diagnostic importance in inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD). Our aim was to determine whether a panel of new antibodies against bacterial proteins and carbohydrates could help differentiate among the various forms of IBD, and whether they were associated with particular clinical manifestations in a Hungarian cohort of IBD patients. METHODS: Six hundred fifty-two well-characterized, unrelated, consecutive IBD patients (CD [Crohn's disease] 557, men/women 262/295, duration 8.1 +/- 11.3 yr; ulcerative colitis [UC] 95, men/women 44/51, duration 8.9 +/- 9.8 yr) and 100 healthy and 48 non-IBD gastrointestinal (GI) controls were investigated. Sera were assayed for anti-OmpC and antibodies against a mannan epitope of S. cerevisiae (gASCA), laminaribioside (ALCA), chitobioside (ACCA), and mannobioside (AMCA). TLR4 and NOD2/CARD15 variants were tested by polymerase chain reaction/restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP). Detailed clinical phenotypes were determined by reviewing the patients' medical charts. RESULTS: Sixty-six percent of the CD patients had at least one of the investigated antibodies. Among glycan antibodies, gASCA or the combination of gASCA and atypical perinuclear antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibodies (pANCA) was most accurate for differentiating between CD and UC. ASCA and gASCA assays performed similarly. Increasing amount and level of antibody responses toward gASCA, ALCA, ACCA, AMCA, and OmpC were associated with more complicated disease behavior (P < 0.0001) and need for surgery in CD (P= 0.023). A serological dosage effect was also observed. gASCA and AMCA antibodies were associated with NOD2/CARD15, in addition to a gene-dosage effect. No serotype-phenotype associations were found in UC. CONCLUSIONS: Antibody response to this new panel of serological markers was associated with complicated disease phenotype, NOD2/CARD15 genotype, and a need for surgery in this eastern European IBD cohort.

Seroreactivity to microbial components in Crohn's disease is associated with ileal involvement, noninflammatory disease behavior and NOD2/CARD15 genotype, but not with risk for surgery in a Hungarian cohort of IBD patients.

BACKGROUND: Antibodies directed against Saccharomyces cerevisiae (ASCA), perinuclear components of neutrophils (pANCA), and porin protein C of Escherichia coli (anti-OmpC) are reported to be associated with disease phenotype and may be of diagnostic importance in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Since limited data are available from Eastern Europe, we assessed the above antibodies in Hungarian IBD patients. METHODS: In all, 653 well-characterized, unrelated consecutive IBD patients (Crohn's disease [CD]: 558, m/f: 263/295, duration: 8.1 +/- 10.7 years; ulcerative colitis [UC]: 95, m/f: 44/51, duration: 8.9 +/- 9.8 years) and 100 healthy subjects were investigated. Sera were assayed for anti-Omp and ASCA by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and ANCA by indirect immunofluorescence assay (IIF). TLR4 and NOD2/CARD15 variants were tested by polymerase chain reaction/restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP). Detailed clinical phenotypes were determined by reviewing the medical charts. RESULTS: Anti-Omp, ASCA, and atypical pANCA antibodies were present in 31.2%, 59.3%, and 13.8% of CD, 24.2%, 13.7%, and 48.5% of UC patients, and in 20%, 16%, and 5.6% of controls, respectively. ASCA and anti-Omp positivity were associated with increased risk for CD (odds ratio [OR](ASCA) = 7.65, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.37-13.4; OR(Omp) = 1.81, 95% CI: 1.08-3.05). In a logistic regression analysis, anti-Omp and ASCA were independently associated with ileal and noninflammatory disease, but not with a risk for surgery or response to steroids or infliximab. A serology dosage effect was also observed. ASCA and anti-Omp antibodies were associated with NOD2/CARD15, in addition to a gene dosage effect. No associations were found in UC. CONCLUSIONS: Serological markers were useful in the differentiation between CD and UC in an Eastern European IBD cohort. Reactivity to microbial components was associated with disease phenotype and NOD2/CARD15 genotype, further supporting the role of altered microbial sensing in the pathogenesis of CD.

Haptoglobin polymorphisms are associated with Crohn's disease, disease behavior, and extraintestinal manifestations in Hungarian patients.

Functional differences and association with inflammatory disorders were found relating to three major haptoglobin (Hp) phenotypes. Our aim was to investigate Hp polymorphisms in Hungarian patients with Crohn's disease (CD). Four hundred sixty-eight CD patients and 384 healthy controls were examined. Hp phenotypes were determined by sodium dodecyl sulfate-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis and immunoblotting of the sera. The frequency of the Hp(1) allele was significantly higher in CD (0.395; OR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.02-1.52; P=0.03) compared to controls (0.345). In CD, Hp phenotype was associated with disease behavior (OR [Hp(2-1) vs other], 2.06; 95% CI, 1.29-3.28 for inflammatory behavior). Furthermore, an increased frequency of primary sclerosing cholangitis was observed in the Hp 2-2 compared to the Hp 1-1 phenotype (6.5% vs. 0.0%; P=0.039). We conclude that the Hp polymorphism is associated with CD, inflammatory disease behavior, and primary sclerosing cholangitis in Hungarian patients. Further studies are required to evaluate the significance of Hp polymorphisms in other populations from geographically diverse regions.

[Haptoglobin polymorphism in patients with inflammatory bowel diseases]. / Haptoglobin polimorfizmus vizsgálata gyulladásos bélbetegségekben.

BACKGROUND: Since functional differences were found among three major haptoglobin phenotypes, haptoglobin polymorphism was reported to be associated with the risk and clinical course of different inflammatory diseases. The aim of the study was to investigate the Hp polymorphism distribution in Hungarian Crohn's disease patients. METHODS: 511 Hungarian IBD patients were investigated (Crohn's disease patients: 468, m/f ratio: 233/235, duration 8.2 +/- 6.7 ys, and ulcerative colitis patients: 43, m/f: 22/21, duration: 9.5 +/- 10.6 ys) and 384 healthy subjects served as controls. Hp phenotypes were determined by sodium dodecyl sulphate-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis of sera followed by immunoblotting. Clinical data were come by the questionnaires prepared by the physicians. RESULTS: The frequency of haptoglobin-1 allele was significantly higher in Crohn's disease (0.395) compared to the controls (0.345; OR: 1.24, 95%CI: 1.02-1.52, p = 0.03), but the phenotype distribution showed no such differences. Haptoglobin phenotype was associated to disease behavior in Crohn's disease (B1 and B2, in haptoglobin 1-1 and 2-2: 36.6%-34.3% and 32.4%-32.5% vs. in 2-1: 44.9% and 20.3%; ORB1Hp2-1 vs. others: 2.06, 95%CI: 1.29-3.28). Furthermore, an increased frequency of primary sclerosing cholangitis was observed in haptoglobin 2-2, compared to the 1-1 (6.5% vs. 0.0%, p = 0.039). No associations were found in ulcerative colitis. CONCLUSIONS: haptoglobin-1 allele was associated with Crohn's disease, whereas the phenotypes with the disease behavior and frequency of primary sclerosing cholangitis, exhibiting a disease-modifying effect.