RESUMO
Fractures often cause irreversible harm in Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD). This study investigated the trajectory of bone mineral density (BMD) using group-based trajectory modeling and identified that BMD acts as an early-stage indicator of clinically significant bone fragility. The greater the early-stage BMD, the better the 4-year bone health outcome. PURPOSE: Most Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) children suffer bone loss after long-term glucocorticoid (GC) exposure, which induces scoliosis and fragility fractures. To assess the BMD progression pattern and individual medical risk markers for these phenotypes in young ambulatory boys with DMD, and provide evidence-based suggestions for clinical management of bone health. METHODS: A retrospective longitudinal cohort study of 153 boys with DMD in West China Second University Hospital (2016-2023) was performed. Group-based trajectory modeling was used to study the BMD progression pattern, and potential predictors were further analyzed by logistic regression and survival analysis. RESULTS: One hundred and fifty-three participants were included, 71 of which had more than 3 BMD records. Three BMD trajectories were identified. Baseline BMD and age-started GC and were independent predictors of trajectory attribution. The median survival time of the first observation of low BMD in GC-treated DMD boys was 5.32 (95% CI 4.05-6.59) years, and a significant difference was tested (P < 0.001) among the three trajectory groups. CONCLUSION: BMD may serve as a novel early indicating marker for monitoring bone fragility for DMD. We proposed a bone health risk stratification through BMD progression trajectory that allows us to adapt the osteoporosis warning sign in DMD from a fixed threshold approach to a more individualized strategy, where baseline BMD and age of glucocorticoid initiation can provide an earlier prediction of bone loss. Better management of primary BMD may be able to delay or avoid the onset of adverse bone health outcomes in the fifth year in children with DMD.