The role of environmental sensitivity in post-traumatic stress symptoms in Lebanese children and adolescents.

Children differ substantially in their sensitivity to the quality of their environment. Some are more sensitive and more likely to develop Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) in response to Childhood Adversities (CAs), but might also benefit more from Positive Home Experiences (PHE). The aim of this study is to investigate the role of Environmental Sensitivity (ES), CAs and PHEs in PTSD development in children and adolescents. Data was collected from N = 2,569 children/adolescents. PTSD symptoms, CAs, PHEs and ES were assessed with self-report measures. We found that higher ES and CAs emerged as risk factors for PTSD development whereas higher levels of PHEs protected against PTSD. ES moderated the effects of CAs (ß = 1.08, p < .001) on PTSD symptoms in the total sample. This moderating effect was more pronounced in girls, suggesting that highly sensitive girls with high childhood adversities were more likely to have higher PTSD symptoms than girls with low levels of sensitivity (ß = 1.09, p < .001). In conclusion, Environmental Sensitivity played an important role as a risk factor for PTSD and as a moderating factor that accentuated the main effects of childhood adversities, particularly in girls.

War exposure, post-traumatic stress symptoms and hair cortisol concentrations in Syrian refugee children.

Altered secretion of cortisol, the primary effector of the hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal axis, has been proposed as a means by which traumatic experiences compromise later mental health. However, despite the popularity of cortisol as a potential biomarker for stress and adversity, findings are inconsistent, and little is known about the impact of war-related trauma on stress physiology of children and adolescents. Here we aimed to evaluate the relationships between war exposure, current living conditions, hair cortisol concentrations (HCC) and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms in a large cohort of Syrian refugee children and adolescents (6-18 years) and their caregiver. This longitudinal observational study assessed Syrian refugee children and adolescents in two waves, 1 year apart, within informal tented settlements in Lebanon. The relationships between war exposure, time since leaving Syria, PTSD symptoms and HCC were investigated using linear mixed-model regression utilising both waves of data collected (Y1: N = 1574, Y2: N = 923). Hair cortisol concentration was positively, but weakly associated with the number of war-related events experienced. This was limited to those who were at least 12 years old at the time of war exposure. Conversely, HCC decreased with time since leaving Syria. HCC was also associated with PTSD symptoms but not with the quality of their current living conditions. This study revealed that changes to hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis activity may accompany both earlier war exposure and current PTSD symptoms in children and adolescents. Additionally, early adolescence may be a particularly sensitive time in terms of trauma-related changes to the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis.

Predictors of psychological risk and resilience among Syrian refugee children.

OBJECTIVES: War-exposed refugee children are at elevated risk for mental health problems, but a notable proportion appear resilient. We aimed to investigate the proportion of Syrian refugee children who can be considered resilient, and applied a novel approach to identify factors predicting individual differences in mental health outcomes following war exposure. METHODS: The sample included 1,528 war-exposed Syrian refugee children and their primary caregiver living in refugee settlements in Lebanon. Children were classed as having low symptoms (LS) if they scored below clinically validated cut-offs for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression and externalising behaviour problems. Children scoring above any cut-off were classified as having high symptoms (HS). Each LS child was matched with one HS who reported similar war exposure, to test what differentiates children with similar exposures but different outcomes. RESULTS: 19.3% of the children met our resilience criteria and were considered LS. At the individual level, protective traits (e.g. self-esteem; OR = 1.51, 95% CI [1.25, 1.81]) predicted LS classification, while environmental sensitivity (OR = 0.69, 95% CI [0.59, 0.82]), poorer general health (OR = 0.71, 95% CI [0.58, 0.87]) and specific coping strategies (e.g. avoidance; OR = 0.90, 95% CI [0.85, 0.96]) predicted HS classification. Social/environmental predictors included perceived social support (OR = 1.23, 95% CI [1.02, 1.49]), loneliness and social isolation (OR = 0.85, 95% CI [0.80, 0.90]), child maltreatment (OR = 0.96, 95% CI [0.94, 0.97]), and caregiver mental and general health (e.g. caregiver depression; OR = 0.94, 95% CI [0.92, 0.97]). CONCLUSIONS: Future research should take multiple dimensions of functioning into account when defining risk for mental health problems and consider the identified predictors as potential targets for interventions.

First Onset in Adulthood of Mental Disorders: Exposure to War vs. Non-war Childhood Adversities: A National Study.

Background: There is evidence that some childhood trauma increases the risk of the first onset of mental disorders and for the first time into adulthood. There are no studies that assessed whether exposure to war has this delayed long-term effect. Objectives: To fill this gap by investigating the comparative roles of war and non-war trauma on the first onset of adulthood mood and anxiety disorders. Methods: A nationally representative sample of 2,857 Lebanese was assessed using the World Health Organization Composite International Diagnostic Interview 3.0. with the onset of exposure to trauma and of first onset of mood and anxiety disorders. Results: Non-war childhood traumata especially those belonging to family malfunctioning continue to exert their effect for the first time well beyond their occurrence as they were the most universal predictors for adult onset of both mood and anxiety disorders. War trauma during childhood predicted mood anxiety and mood (anxiety only in males) only below age 18 y. war childhood trauma predicts the first onset of mood and anxiety disorders before age 18 y in females, but only anxiety in males. Conclusion: Childhood traumata are not equal in predicting the first onset of mood and anxiety disorders into adulthood. Family malfunctioning looks to carry the longest such risk and war more of shorter immediate effects. This might change though with re-exposure to war in adulthood which might unravel dormant vulnerability.

Cohort profile: biological pathways of risk and resilience in Syrian refugee children (BIOPATH).

The BIOPATH cohort was established to explore the interplay of psychosocial and biological factors in the development of resilience and mental health problems in Syrian refugee children. Based in Lebanon, a middle-income country significantly impacted by the refugee crisis, it is the first such cohort of refugees in the Middle East. Families were recruited from informal tented settlements in the Beqaa region using purposive cluster sampling. At baseline (October 2017-January 2018), N = 3188 individuals participated [n = 1594 child-caregiver dyads; child gender, 52.6% female; mean (SD) age = 11.44 (2.44) years, range = 6-19]. Re-participation rate at 1-year follow-up was 62.8%. Individual interviews were conducted with children and primary caregivers and biological samples collected from children. Measures include: (1) children's well-being and mental health problems (using tools validated against clinical interviews in a subsample of the cohort); (2) psychosocial risk and protective factors at the level of the individual (e.g. coping strategies), family (e.g. parent-child relationship), community (e.g. collective efficacy), and wider context (e.g. services); (3) saliva samples for genetic and epigenetic (methylation) analyses; (4) hair samples to measure cortisol, dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA) and testosterone. This cohort profile provides details about sampling and recruitment, data collection and measures, demographic data, attrition and potential bias, key findings on resilience and mental health problems in children and strengths and limitations of the cohort. Researchers interested in accessing data should contact Professor Michael Pluess at Queen Mary University of London, UK (e-mail: m.pluess@qmul.ac.uk).

Role of childhood adversities and environmental sensitivity in the development of post-traumatic stress disorder in war-exposed Syrian refugee children and adolescents.

BACKGROUND: Increased post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) rates have been documented in children exposed to war. However, the contribution of childhood adversities and environmental sensitivity to children's responses to adversities and trauma are still far from settled.AimsTo evaluate the relative roles of war, childhood adversities and sensitivity in the genesis of PTSD. METHOD: Data on childhood adversities and sensitivity was collected from 549 Syrian refugee children in Lebanon. PTSD symptoms were assessed using the PTSD Reaction Index. RESULTS: Although childhood adversities, war events and sensitivity were all significantly related to PTSD in bivariate analyses, multivariate analyses showed that childhood adversities were the most important variable in predicting PTSD. The effect of war on PTSD was found to be dependent on the interplay between childhood adversities and sensitivity, and was most prominent in highly sensitive children with lower levels of adversities; in sensitive children experiencing high levels of adversities, the effects of war exposure on PTSD were less pronounced. CONCLUSIONS: When considering the effects of war on PTSD in refugee children, it is important to take account of the presence of other adversities as well as of children's sensitivity. Sensitive children may be more vulnerable to the negative effects of war exposure, but only in contexts that are characterised by low childhood adversities.Declaration of interestNone.

Trauma and psychotic experiences: transnational data from the World Mental Health Survey.

BackgroundTraumatic events are associated with increased risk of psychotic experiences, but it is unclear whether this association is explained by mental disorders prior to psychotic experience onset.AimsTo investigate the associations between traumatic events and subsequent psychotic experience onset after adjusting for post-traumatic stress disorder and other mental disorders.MethodWe assessed 29 traumatic event types and psychotic experiences from the World Mental Health surveys and examined the associations of traumatic events with subsequent psychotic experience onset with and without adjustments for mental disorders.ResultsRespondents with any traumatic events had three times the odds of other respondents of subsequently developing psychotic experiences (OR = 3.1, 95% CI 2.7-3.7), with variability in strength of association across traumatic event types. These associations persisted after adjustment for mental disorders.ConclusionsExposure to traumatic events predicts subsequent onset of psychotic experiences even after adjusting for comorbid mental disorders.

Resilience-promoting factors in war-exposed adolescents: an epidemiologic study.

Studies of war-exposed children have not investigated a comprehensive array of resilience-promoting factors, nor representative samples of children and adolescents. A representative sample of N = 710 adolescents was randomly selected from communities recently exposed to war. All those who had experienced war trauma were administered questionnaires measuring war exposure, family violence, availability of leisure activities, school-related problems, interpersonal and peer problems, socialization, daily routine problems, displacement, availability of parental supervision and contact and medical needs as well as coping skills related to religious coping, denial, self-control, avoidance and problem solving. Mental health was measured by the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) and the Child-Revised Impact of Events Scale (CRIES). Resilient adolescents were defined as those who experienced war trauma, but did not manifest any symptoms on the SDQ or CRIES. Resilience was related to being male, using problem-solving techniques, having leisure activities, and having parents who spent time with their adolescents and who supported them with school work. Interventions designed for war-traumatized youth must build individual coping skills of children and adolescents, yet at the same time target parents and teachers in an integrated manner.

The role of religious advisors in mental health care in the World Mental Health surveys.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the role of religious advisors in mental health care (MHC) according to disorder severity, socio-demographics, religious involvement and country income groups. METHODS: Face to face household surveys in ten high income (HI), six upper-middle income (UMI) and five low/lower-middle (LLMI) income countries totalling 101,258 adults interviewed with the WMH CIDI plus questions on use of care for mental health problems and religiosity. RESULTS: 1.1% of participants turned to religious providers for MHC in the past year. Among those using services, 12.3% used religious services; as much as 30% in some LLMI countries, around 20% in some UMI; in the HI income countries USA, Germany, Italy and Japan are between 15 and 10% whenever the remaining countries are much lower. In LLMI 20.9% used religious advisors for the most severe mental disorders compared to 12.3 in UMI and 9.5% in HI. For severe cases most of religious providers use occurred together with formal care except in Nigeria, Iraq and Ukraine where, respectively, 41.6, 25.7 and 17.7% of such services are outside any formal care. Frequency of attendance at religious services was a strong predictor of religious provider usage OR 6.5 for those who attended over once a week (p < 0.0001); as seeking comfort "often" through religion in case of difficulties OR was 3.6 (p = 0.004) while gender and individual income did not predict use of religious advisors nor did the type of religious affiliation; in contrast young people use them more as well as divorced and widowed OR 1.4 (p = 0.02). Some country differences persisted after controlling for all these factors. CONCLUSIONS: Religious advisors play an important role in mental health care and require appropriate training and collaboration with formal mental healthcare systems. Religious attitudes are strong predictors of religious advisors usage.

The descriptive epidemiology of DSM-IV Adult ADHD in the World Health Organization World Mental Health Surveys.

We previously reported on the cross-national epidemiology of ADHD from the first 10 countries in the WHO World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys. The current report expands those previous findings to the 20 nationally or regionally representative WMH surveys that have now collected data on adult ADHD. The Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI) was administered to 26,744 respondents in these surveys in high-, upper-middle-, and low-/lower-middle-income countries (68.5% mean response rate). Current DSM-IV/CIDI adult ADHD prevalence averaged 2.8% across surveys and was higher in high (3.6%)- and upper-middle (3.0%)- than low-/lower-middle (1.4%)-income countries. Conditional prevalence of current ADHD averaged 57.0% among childhood cases and 41.1% among childhood subthreshold cases. Adult ADHD was significantly related to being male, previously married, and low education. Adult ADHD was highly comorbid with DSM-IV/CIDI anxiety, mood, behavior, and substance disorders and significantly associated with role impairments (days out of role, impaired cognition, and social interactions) when controlling for comorbidities. Treatment seeking was low in all countries and targeted largely to comorbid conditions rather than to ADHD. These results show that adult ADHD is prevalent, seriously impairing, and highly comorbid but vastly under-recognized and undertreated across countries and cultures.

Age of Onset and Lifetime Projected Risk of Psychotic Experiences: Cross-National Data From the World Mental Health Survey.

BACKGROUND: Given the early age of onset (AOO) of psychotic disorders, it has been assumed that psychotic experiences (PEs) would have a similar early AOO. The aims of this study were to describe (a) the AOO distribution of PEs, (b) the projected lifetime risk of PEs, and (c) the associations of PE AOO with selected PE features. METHODS: Data came from the WHO World Mental Health (WMH) surveys. A total of 31 261 adult respondents across 18 countries were assessed for lifetime prevalence of PE. Projected lifetime risk (at age 75 years) was estimated using a 2-part actuarial method. AOO distributions were described for the observed and projected estimates. We examined associations of AOO with PE type metric and annualized PE frequency. RESULTS: Projected lifetime risk for PEs was 7.8% (SE = 0.3), slightly higher than lifetime prevalence (5.8%, SE = 0.2). The median (interquartile range; IQR) AOO based on projected lifetime estimates was 26 (17-41) years, indicating that PEs commence across a wide age range. The AOO distributions for PEs did not differ by sex. Early AOO was positively associated with number of PE types (F = 14.1, P < .001) but negatively associated with annualized PE frequency rates (F = 8.0, P < .001). DISCUSSION: While most people with lifetime PEs have first onsets in adolescence or young adulthood, projected estimates indicate that nearly a quarter of first onsets occur after age 40 years. The extent to which late onset PEs are associated with (a) late onset mental disorders or (b) declining cognitive and/or sensory function need further research.

The Bidirectional Associations Between Psychotic Experiences and DSM-IV Mental Disorders.

OBJECTIVE: While it is now recognized that psychotic experiences are associated with an increased risk of later mental disorders, we lack a detailed understanding of the reciprocal time-lagged relationships between first onsets of psychotic experiences and mental disorders. Using data from World Health Organization World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys, the authors assessed the bidirectional temporal associations between psychotic experiences and mental disorders. METHOD: The WMH Surveys assessed lifetime prevalence and age at onset of psychotic experiences and 21 common DSM-IV mental disorders among 31,261 adult respondents from 18 countries. Discrete-time survival models were used to examine bivariate and multivariate associations between psychotic experiences and mental disorders. RESULTS: Temporally primary psychotic experiences were significantly associated with subsequent first onset of eight of the 21 mental disorders (major depressive disorder, bipolar disorder, generalized anxiety disorder, social phobia, posttraumatic stress disorder, adult separation anxiety disorder, bulimia nervosa, and alcohol abuse), with odds ratios ranging from 1.3 (95% CI=1.2-1.5) for major depressive disorder to 2.0 (95% CI=1.5-2.6) for bipolar disorder. In contrast, 18 of 21 primary mental disorders were significantly associated with subsequent first onset of psychotic experiences, with odds ratios ranging from 1.5 (95% CI=1.0-2.1) for childhood separation anxiety disorder to 2.8 (95% CI=1.0-7.8) for anorexia nervosa. CONCLUSIONS: While temporally primary psychotic experiences are associated with an elevated risk of several subsequent mental disorders, these data show that most mental disorders are associated with an elevated risk of subsequent psychotic experiences. Further investigation of the underlying factors accounting for these time-order relationships may shed light on the etiology of psychotic experiences.

Prevalence, Correlates, and Treatment of Mental Disorders among Lebanese Older Adults: A National Study.

OBJECTIVES: Data on the mental health of older adults in the Middle East is lacking. Prevalence of mental disorders in Lebanese older adults (age: 60+ years) as well as accounts of their attitude towards seeking professional help for mental disorders were investigated. The results of older adults were compared to a younger age group (18-59 years). DESIGN: Cross-sectional nationally representative study, using data from the Lebanese Evaluation of the Burden of Ailments and Needs of the Nation. SETTING: Community-based epidemiologic survey. PARTICIPANTS: Community-dwelling adults (N = 2,857) in Lebanon. MEASUREMENTS: Mental disorders were evaluated using the World Health Organization Composite International Diagnostic Interview. RESULTS: The lifetime and 12-month prevalences of having "any mental disorder" in older adults (N = 593) were 17.4% and 10.6%, respectively, and were significantly lower than the prevalence in younger adults (25.7% and 18.5%, respectively). Female sex, low household income, social disability, and exposure to war trauma were significant correlates of 12-month mental disorders in older adults. Of those with a 12-month mental disorder, 16.0% sought professional help for their condition in the past year. CONCLUSIONS: As shown in other epidemiologic studies, the prevalence of mental disorders in Lebanon was lower in older adults as compared to younger adults. Several factors in epidemiologic studies, however, may contribute to the underdiagnosis of mental disorders in older adults. No significant differences in attitude towards mental health services were found between older and younger age groups. The importance of interventions that improve the social relationships of older adults is highlighted.

Lebanon: mental health system reform and the Syrian crisis.

The Lebanese Ministry of Public Health has launched a National Mental Health Programme, which in turn has established the Mental Health and Substance Use Strategy for Lebanon 2015-2020. In parallel, research involving refugees has been conducted since the onset of the Syrian crisis. The findings point to an increase in mental health disorders in the Syrian refugee population, which now numbers more than 1 million.

Displaced Children: The Psychological Implications.

Millions of people across the world have been displaced or live in exile and/or as refugees largely as a consequence of wars, acts of terrorism, and catastrophic natural disasters. There are serious psychological consequences as a result of these extremely difficult life circumstances. Adults often can express their needs and have them be heard, whereas children are unable to do so. The children may be provided food, shelter, and clothing and have their medical needs attended to, but their emotional and psychological needs go unrecognized and unmet, with dire and monumental long-term consequences.

Temperament and suicide: A national study.

BACKGROUND: Several studies have shown temperament variants in suicidality. Yet, to our knowledge, the association between temperaments and suicide attempts has not been studied on a nationally representative level nor systematically in subjects with no mental disorders. Also, although hyperthymic temperament is recognized as protective of most mental disorders, its role in the protection from self-harm remains inconclusive. METHODS: The study is based on nationally representative data of all Lebanese adults. Mental disorders were assessed using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview, whereas the five affective temperaments were assessed using the TEMPS-A. RESULTS: Anxious temperament is a solid and strong risk factor for suicide attempts in subjects with (OR: 10.1) and without (OR: 9.0) mental disorders. Depressive (OR: 4.3) and irritable (OR: 5.1) temperaments are risk factors for suicide attempt among subjects with mental disorders. Hyperthymic temperament plays a dual role in females with mental disorders: while the hyperthymic trait "having self-confidence" is strongly protective of suicide attempts, "liking to be the boss", "getting into heated arguments", and "the right and privilege to do as I please" are hyperthymic risk traits for suicide attempts reflecting the "dark side" of the hyperthymic temperament. Interestingly, these three hyperthymic risk traits--in the absence of "having self-confidence"--are a universal risk for suicide attempt in females with mental disorder. LIMITATIONS: Social desirability could have led to the under-reporting of suicide attempts and mental disorders. CONCLUSIONS: The anxious temperament plays a strong role in predicting suicide attempts in the community, in the presence and absence of diagnosable mental disorders. The irritable and the depressive temperaments are additional risks in subjects with mental disorders. The dual role of the hyperthymic temperament is quite interesting: while it is protective of suicidal behavior, it also has a dark side in subjects with mental disorders.

Psychotic Experiences in the General Population: A Cross-National Analysis Based on 31,261 Respondents From 18 Countries.

IMPORTANCE: Community-based surveys find that many otherwise healthy individuals report histories of hallucinations and delusions. To date, most studies have focused on the overall lifetime prevalence of any of these psychotic experiences (PEs), which might mask important features related to the types and frequencies of PEs. OBJECTIVE: To explore detailed epidemiologic information about PEs in a large multinational sample. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: We obtained data from the World Health Organization World Mental Health Surveys, a coordinated set of community epidemiologic surveys of the prevalence and correlates of mental disorders in representative household samples from 18 countries throughout the world, from 2001 through 2009. Respondents included 31,261 adults (18 years and older) who were asked about lifetime and 12-month prevalence and frequency of 6 types of PEs (2 hallucinatory experiences and 4 delusional experiences). We analyzed the data from March 2014 through January 2015. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Prevalence, frequency, and correlates of PEs. RESULTS: Mean lifetime prevalence (SE) of ever having a PE was 5.8% (0.2%), with hallucinatory experiences (5.2% [0.2%]) much more common than delusional experiences (1.3% [0.1%]). More than two-thirds (72.0%) of respondents with lifetime PEs reported experiencing only 1 type. Psychotic experiences were typically infrequent, with 32.2% of respondents with lifetime PEs reporting only 1 occurrence and 31.8% reporting only 2 to 5 occurrences. We found a significant relationship between having more than 1 type of PE and having more frequent PE episodes (Cochran-Armitage z = -10.0; P < .001). Lifetime prevalence estimates (SEs) were significantly higher among respondents in middle- and high-income countries than among those in low-income countries (7.2% [0.4%], 6.8% [0.3%], and 3.2% [0.3%], respectively; χ²2 range, 7.1-58.2; P < .001 for each) and among women than among men (6.6% [0.2%] vs 5.0% [0.3%]; χ²1 = 16.0; P < .001). We found significant associations with lifetime prevalence of PEs in the multivariate model among nonmarried compared with married respondents (χ²2 = 23.2; P < .001) and among respondents who were not employed (χ²4= 10.6; P < .001) and who had low family incomes (χ²3 = 16.9; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The epidemiologic features of PEs are more nuanced than previously thought. Research is needed that focuses on similarities and differences in the predictors of the onset, course, and consequences of distinct PEs.

Childhood adversities and traumata in Lebanon: a national study.

BACKGROUND: The goal of this paper is to map the total occurrence and evaluate the risk of co-occurrence of childhood adversities (CA) and a wide variety of childhood traumatic events (including war) in a national sample. METHOD: The nationally representative sample included 2,857 respondents and the instrument used was the Composite International Diagnostic Interview which screened for all CAs and traumatic events. RESULTS: 27.9% experienced CAs; the most common were parental death and parental mental/substance use disorder. 70.6% experienced a war-related traumatic event during their lifetime, and around half of them (38.1%) experienced it below the age of 18 years. 51.3% of the subjects experienced a traumatic event not related to war during their lifetime, and 19.2% experienced it before the age of 18 years. Sexual abuse, being a refugee during war, and experiencing a natural disaster were associated with female gender. Having any CA was associated with active war exposure (OR: 4.2, CI: 2.0-8.6); war-related direct personal trauma (OR: 3.9, CI: 1.5-10.0); war-related trauma to others (OR: 2.4, CI: 1.3-4.4); non-war direct personal trauma (OR: 3.8, CI: 2.0-7.4); and any non-war childhood traumatic event (OR: 1.9, CI: 1.1-3.1). CONCLUSION: Childhood is awash with adversities and traumatic events that co-occur and should be measured simultaneously; otherwise, the effects of a subset of traumata or adversities could be wrongly thought to be the contributor to negative outcomes under study.

Outcome of depression and anxiety after war: a prospective epidemiologic study of children and adolescents.

Prospective studies of children exposed to war have not investigated disorders other than posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and have methodological limitations. From a stratified random sample of 386 children and adolescents who had been interviewed 3 weeks after war exposure (Phase 1) a random subsample (N = 143) was interviewed a year later (Phase 2). PTSD, major depressive disorder (MDD), separation anxiety disorder (SAD), overanxious disorder (OAD), and psychosocial stressors were assessed using structured interviews administered to both children and adolescents and their parents. The prevalence of disorders among the 143 at Phase 1 was MDD 25.9%, SAD 16.1%, OAD 28.0%, and PTSD 26.0%, with 44.1% having any disorder. At Phase 2 the prevalence was MDD, 5.6%; SAD, 4.2%; OAD, 0%; and PTSD, 1.4%, with 9.2% having any disorder. Occurrence of disorders at Phase 1 was associated with older age, prewar disorders, financial problems, fear of being beaten, and witnessing any war event (ORs ranged from 2.5 to 28.6). Persistence of disorders to Phase 2 was associated with prewar disorders (OR = 6.0) and witnessing any war event (OR = 14.3). There are implications for detection of at-risk cases following wars by screening for adolescents exposed to family violence, those with prewar disorders, and those who directly witnessed war events to target them for specific interventions.

Major depressive disorder subtypes to predict long-term course.

BACKGROUND: Variation in the course of major depressive disorder (MDD) is not strongly predicted by existing subtype distinctions. A new subtyping approach is considered here. METHODS: Two data mining techniques, ensemble recursive partitioning and Lasso generalized linear models (GLMs), followed by k-means cluster analysis are used to search for subtypes based on index episode symptoms predicting subsequent MDD course in the World Mental Health (WMH) surveys. The WMH surveys are community surveys in 16 countries. Lifetime DSM-IV MDD was reported by 8,261 respondents. Retrospectively reported outcomes included measures of persistence (number of years with an episode, number of years with an episode lasting most of the year) and severity (hospitalization for MDD, disability due to MDD). RESULTS: Recursive partitioning found significant clusters defined by the conjunctions of early onset, suicidality, and anxiety (irritability, panic, nervousness-worry-anxiety) during the index episode. GLMs found additional associations involving a number of individual symptoms. Predicted values of the four outcomes were strongly correlated. Cluster analysis of these predicted values found three clusters having consistently high, intermediate, or low predicted scores across all outcomes. The high-risk cluster (30.0% of respondents) accounted for 52.9-69.7% of high persistence and severity, and it was most strongly predicted by index episode severe dysphoria, suicidality, anxiety, and early onset. A total symptom count, in comparison, was not a significant predictor. CONCLUSIONS: Despite being based on retrospective reports, results suggest that useful MDD subtyping distinctions can be made using data mining methods. Further studies are needed to test and expand these results with prospective data.