A Data-Driven Cognitive Composite Sensitive to Amyloid-ß for Preclinical Alzheimer's Disease.

Background: Integrating scores from multiple cognitive tests into a single cognitive composite has been shown to improve sensitivity to detect AD-related cognitive impairment. However, existing composites have little sensitivity to amyloid-ß status (Aß +/-) in preclinical AD. Objective: Evaluate whether a data-driven approach for deriving cognitive composites can improve the sensitivity to detect Aß status among cognitively unimpaired (CU) individuals compared to existing cognitive composites. Methods: Based on the data from the Anti-Amyloid Treatment in the Asymptomatic Alzheimer's Disease (A4) study, a novel composite, the Data-driven Preclinical Alzheimer's Cognitive Composite (D-PACC), was developed based on test scores and response durations selected using a machine learning algorithm from the Cogstate Brief Battery (CBB). The D-PACC was then compared with conventional composites in the follow-up A4 visits and in individuals from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). Result: The D-PACC showed a comparable or significantly higher ability to discriminate Aß status [median Cohen's d = 0.172] than existing composites at the A4 baseline visit, with similar results at the second visit. The D-PACC demonstrated the most consistent sensitivity to Aß status in both A4 and ADNI datasets. Conclusions: The D-PACC showed similar or improved sensitivity when screening for Aß+ in CU populations compared to existing composites but with higher consistency across studies.

Evolution of white matter hyperintensity segmentation methods and implementation over the past two decades; an incomplete shift towards deep learning.

This systematic review examines the prevalence, underlying mechanisms, cohort characteristics, evaluation criteria, and cohort types in white matter hyperintensity (WMH) pipeline and implementation literature spanning the last two decades. Following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidelines, we categorized WMH segmentation tools based on their methodologies from January 1, 2000, to November 18, 2022. Inclusion criteria involved articles using openly available techniques with detailed descriptions, focusing on WMH as a primary outcome. Our analysis identified 1007 visual rating scales, 118 pipeline development articles, and 509 implementation articles. These studies predominantly explored aging, dementia, psychiatric disorders, and small vessel disease, with aging and dementia being the most prevalent cohorts. Deep learning emerged as the most frequently developed segmentation technique, indicative of a heightened scrutiny in new technique development over the past two decades. We illustrate observed patterns and discrepancies between published and implemented WMH techniques. Despite increasingly sophisticated quantitative segmentation options, visual rating scales persist, with the SPM technique being the most utilized among quantitative methods and potentially serving as a reference standard for newer techniques. Our findings highlight the need for future standards in WMH segmentation, and we provide recommendations based on these observations.

Implementing competing risks in discrete event simulation: the event-specific probabilities and distributions approach.

Background: Although several strategies for modelling competing events in discrete event simulation (DES) exist, a methodological gap for the event-specific probabilities and distributions (ESPD) approach when dealing with censored data remains. This study defines and illustrates the ESPD strategy for censored data. Methods: The ESPD approach assumes that events are generated through a two-step process. First, the type of event is selected according to some (unknown) mixture proportions. Next, the times of occurrence of the events are sampled from a corresponding survival distribution. Both of these steps can be modelled based on covariates. Performance was evaluated through a simulation study, considering sample size and levels of censoring. Additionally, an oncology-related case study was conducted to assess the ability to produce realistic results, and to demonstrate its implementation using both frequentist and Bayesian frameworks in R. Results: The simulation study showed good performance of the ESPD approach, with accuracy decreasing as sample sizes decreased and censoring levels increased. The average relative absolute error of the event probability (95%-confidence interval) ranged from 0.04 (0.00; 0.10) to 0.23 (0.01; 0.66) for 60% censoring and sample size 50, showing that increased censoring and decreased sample size resulted in lower accuracy. The approach yielded realistic results in the case study. Discussion: The ESPD approach can be used to model competing events in DES based on censored data. Further research is warranted to compare the approach to other modelling approaches for DES, and to evaluate its usefulness in estimating cumulative event incidences in a broader context.

Disease progression modelling of Alzheimer's disease using probabilistic principal components analysis.

The recent biological redefinition of Alzheimer's Disease (AD) has spurred the development of statistical models that relate changes in biomarkers with neurodegeneration and worsening condition linked to AD. The ability to measure such changes may facilitate earlier diagnoses for affected individuals and help in monitoring the evolution of their condition. Amongst such statistical tools, disease progression models (DPMs) are quantitative, data-driven methods that specifically attempt to describe the temporal dynamics of biomarkers relevant to AD. Due to the heterogeneous nature of this disease, with patients of similar age experiencing different AD-related changes, a challenge facing longitudinal mixed-effects-based DPMs is the estimation of patient-realigning time-shifts. These time-shifts are indispensable for meaningful biomarker modelling, but may impact fitting time or vary with missing data in jointly estimated models. In this work, we estimate an individual's progression through Alzheimer's disease by combining multiple biomarkers into a single value using a probabilistic formulation of principal components analysis. Our results show that this variable, which summarises AD through observable biomarkers, is remarkably similar to jointly estimated time-shifts when we compute our scores for the baseline visit, on cross-sectional data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). Reproducing the expected properties of clinical datasets, we confirm that estimated scores are robust to missing data or unavailable biomarkers. In addition to cross-sectional insights, we can model the latent variable as an individual progression score by repeating estimations at follow-up examinations and refining long-term estimates as more data is gathered, which would be ideal in a clinical setting. Finally, we verify that our score can be used as a pseudo-temporal scale instead of age to ignore some patient heterogeneity in cohort data and highlight the general trend in expected biomarker evolution in affected individuals.