Squeezed from the top: "Social Outburst" (2019) and elite overproduction. A study of the dynamics of Chilean political instability from the approach of Structural Demographic Theory.

On October 18, 2019, Chile experienced the most important social upheaval since the country regained democracy in the late 1980s. The "Social Outbreak" surprised economic and political elites and seemed paradoxical to the international community who had often praised Chile as a model of successful development. In this paper, we used structural-demographic theory to analyze the interaction between the overproduction of elites and the stagnation in the relative income of the population as the underlying structural cause of Chilean political instability. This theory was able to predict the three most significant instances of political tension in the recent history of Chile: the crisis of the late 1960s that culminated in the coup d'état of 1973, popular mobilizations during the 1980s, and the recent student mobilizations and social upheaval. Our results suggest that, at least during the period 1938-2019, Chilean sociopolitical dynamics is determined by the same structural drivers.

Weed Diversity Affects Soybean and Maize Yield in a Long Term Experiment in Michigan, USA.

Managing production environments in ways that promote weed community diversity may enhance both crop production and the development of a more sustainable agriculture. This study analyzed data of productivity of maize (corn) and soybean in plots in the Main Cropping System Experiment (MCSE) at the W. K. Kellogg Biological Station Long-Term Ecological Research (KBS-LTER) in Michigan, USA, from 1996 to 2011. We used models derived from population ecology to explore how weed diversity, temperature, and precipitation interact with crop yields. Using three types of models that considered internal and external (climate and weeds) factors, with additive or non-linear variants, we found that changes in weed diversity were associated with changes in rates of crop yield increase over time for both maize and soybeans. The intrinsic capacity for soybean yield increase in response to the environment was greater under more diverse weed communities. Soybean production risks were greatest in the least weed diverse systems, in which each weed species lost was associated with progressively greater crop yield losses. Managing for weed community diversity, while suppressing dominant, highly competitive weeds, may be a helpful strategy for supporting long term increases in soybean productivity. In maize, there was a negative and non-additive response of yields to the interaction between weed diversity and minimum air temperatures. When cold temperatures constrained potential maize productivity through limited resources, negative interactions with weed diversity became more pronounced. We suggest that: (1) maize was less competitive in cold years allowing higher weed diversity and the dominance of some weed species; or (2) that cold years resulted in increased weed richness and prevalence of competitive weeds, thus reducing crop yields. Therefore, we propose to control dominant weed species especially in the years of low yield and extreme minimum temperatures to improve maize yields. Results of our study indicate that through the proactive management of weed diversity, it may be possible to promote both high productivity of crops and environmental sustainability.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of maize yield water constraints under climate change in Spain.

Many studies have analyzed the impact of climate change on crop productivity, but comparing the performance of water management systems has rarely been explored. Because water supply and crop demand in agro-systems may be affected by global climate change in shaping the spatial patterns of agricultural production, we should evaluate how and where irrigation practices are effective in mitigating climate change effects. Here we have constructed simple, general models, based on biological mechanisms and a theoretical framework, which could be useful in explaining and predicting crop productivity dynamics. We have studied maize in irrigated and rain-fed systems at a provincial scale, from 1996 to 2009 in Spain, one of the most prominent "hot-spots" in future climate change projections. Our new approach allowed us to: (1) evaluate new structural properties such as the stability of crop yield dynamics, (2) detect nonlinear responses to climate change (thresholds and discontinuities), challenging the usual linear way of thinking, and (3) examine spatial patterns of yield losses due to water constraints and identify clusters of provinces that have been negatively affected by warming. We have reduced the uncertainty associated with climate change impacts on maize productivity by improving the understanding of the relative contributions of individual factors and providing a better spatial comprehension of the key processes. We have identified water stress and water management systems as being key causes of the yield gap, and detected vulnerable regions where efforts in research and policy should be prioritized in order to increase maize productivity.

Distribution extension of Scinax aromothyella (Anura, Hylidae) / Extensión de la distribución de Scinax aromothyella (Anura, Hylidae)

Scinax aromothyella is a recently described hylid frog. Its distribution is not well known. There are records for Misiones, Argentina and for southeastern Uruguay. Here we report a new record of S. aromothyella from Aceguá, Cerro Largo Department, Uruguay (31º 53' 39" S and 54º 9' 17" W), based in tadpoles collected on the 15 of August, 2007. This new record extends the distribution of S. aromothyella in approximately 100 km north from previous reports in Uruguay. The samples were collected in a site located 2 km away from the border line with Brazil, reinforcing the idea that S. aromothyella might occur in Rio Grande do Sul.

Scinax aromothyella es un anfibio hilido recientemente descripto y con distribución poco conocida. Existen registros de Misiones, Argentina, y del sureste de Uruguay. Reportamos en este trabajo un nuevo registro de S. aromothyella para el Departamento de Cerro Largo, Uruguay, localidad Aceguá (31º 53' 39" S y 54º 9' 17" W) basado en renacuajos colectados el 15 de agosto de 2007. Este registro extiende la distribución de S. aromothyella más de 100 km al norte de los registros previos en Uruguay. La cercanía a la frontera (2 km) refuerza la idea de la ocurrencia de esta especie en el sur de Brasil.