RESUMO
Fuchs endothelial corneal dystrophy (FECD), the leading indication for corneal transplantation in the U.S., causes loss of corneal endothelial cells (CECs) and corneal edema leading to vision loss. FECD pathogenesis is linked to impaired response to oxidative stress and environmental ultraviolet A (UVA) exposure. Although UVA is known to cause nonapoptotic oxidative cell death resulting from iron-mediated lipid peroxidation, ferroptosis has not been characterized in FECD. We investigated the roles of genetic background and UVA exposure in causing CEC degeneration in FECD. Using ungenotyped FECD patient surgical samples, we found increased levels of cytosolic ferrous iron (Fe2+) and lipid peroxidation in end-stage diseased tissues compared with healthy controls. Using primary and immortalized cell cultures modeling the TCF4 intronic trinucleotide repeat expansion genotype, we found altered gene and protein expression involved in ferroptosis compared to controls including elevated levels of Fe2+, basal lipid peroxidation, and the ferroptosis-specific marker transferrin receptor 1. Increased cytosolic Fe2+ levels were detected after physiologically relevant doses of UVA exposure, indicating a role for ferroptosis in FECD disease progression. Cultured cells were more prone to ferroptosis induced by RSL3 and UVA than controls, indicating ferroptosis susceptibility is increased by both FECD genetic background and UVA. Finally, cell death was preventable after RSL3 induced ferroptosis using solubilized ubiquinol, indicating a role for anti-ferroptosis therapies in FECD. This investigation demonstrates that genetic background and UVA exposure contribute to iron-mediated lipid peroxidation and cell death in FECD, and provides the basis for future investigations of ferroptosis-mediated disease progression in FECD.
RESUMO
INTRODUCTION: Despite the availability of radiotherapy treatment protocols for lung cancer, considerable treatment variation occurs in clinical practice. This study assessed compliance with a radiotherapy protocol for the treatment of patients with stages I-III non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in routine clinical practice and to identify factors that were associated with compliance. METHODS: The Cancer Institute New South Wales eviQ treatment protocol for external beam radiotherapy of stages I-III NSCLC was taken as the reference to measure compliance. All inoperable patients with stages I-III NSCLC and documented ECOG performance status treated with radiotherapy between 2007 and 2019 at two radiotherapy facilities were available for analysis. Protocol compliance rates were calculated. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models with 23 input factors were used to determine factors significantly associated with compliance. Survival analysis was conducted for both compliant and non-compliant treatments. RESULTS: Overall, 656 patients met the inclusion criteria. Protocol compliance was 16%. Alternative dose/fractionation was responsible for 49% of non-compliant treatments with 30% receiving an alternative curative fractionation. Five of 23 factors (age at the start of radiotherapy, stage group, ECOG performance status, tumour location and alcoholism history) showed significant associations with protocol compliance on multivariate analysis. There was no significant difference in median survival between patients receiving protocol compliant treatment (15.1 months) and non-compliant treatment (15.6 months). CONCLUSION: Adherence to the eviQ curative radiotherapy protocol for stages I-III NSCLC was low. Alternative dose/fractionation schemes were the main reason for non-compliance. Protocol compliance was not associated with outcome.
Assuntos
Carcinoma Pulmonar de Células não Pequenas , Fidelidade a Diretrizes , Neoplasias Pulmonares , Estadiamento de Neoplasias , Humanos , Carcinoma Pulmonar de Células não Pequenas/radioterapia , Carcinoma Pulmonar de Células não Pequenas/patologia , Neoplasias Pulmonares/radioterapia , Feminino , Masculino , Idoso , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , New South Wales , Adulto , Fracionamento da Dose de Radiação , Estudos Retrospectivos , Protocolos ClínicosRESUMO
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Bio-medical image segmentation models typically attempt to predict one segmentation that resembles a ground-truth structure as closely as possible. However, as medical images are not perfect representations of anatomy, obtaining this ground truth is not possible. A surrogate commonly used is to have multiple expert observers define the same structure for a dataset. When multiple observers define the same structure on the same image there can be significant differences depending on the structure, image quality/modality and the region being defined. It is often desirable to estimate this type of aleatoric uncertainty in a segmentation model to help understand the region in which the true structure is likely to be positioned. Furthermore, obtaining these datasets is resource intensive so training such models using limited data may be required. With a small dataset size, differing patient anatomy is likely not well represented causing epistemic uncertainty which should also be estimated so it can be determined for which cases the model is effective or not. METHODS: We use a 3D probabilistic U-Net to train a model from which several segmentations can be sampled to estimate the range of uncertainty seen between multiple observers. To ensure that regions where observers disagree most are emphasised in model training, we expand the Generalised Evidence Lower Bound (ELBO) with a Constrained Optimisation (GECO) loss function with an additional contour loss term to give attention to this region. Ensemble and Monte-Carlo dropout (MCDO) uncertainty quantification methods are used during inference to estimate model confidence on an unseen case. We apply our methodology to two radiotherapy clinical trial datasets, a gastric cancer trial (TOPGEAR, TROG 08.08) and a post-prostatectomy prostate cancer trial (RAVES, TROG 08.03). Each dataset contains only 10 cases each for model development to segment the clinical target volume (CTV) which was defined by multiple observers on each case. An additional 50 cases are available as a hold-out dataset for each trial which had only one observer define the CTV structure on each case. Up to 50 samples were generated using the probabilistic model for each case in the hold-out dataset. To assess performance, each manually defined structure was matched to the closest matching sampled segmentation based on commonly used metrics. RESULTS: The TOPGEAR CTV model achieved a Dice Similarity Coefficient (DSC) and Surface DSC (sDSC) of 0.7 and 0.43 respectively with the RAVES model achieving 0.75 and 0.71 respectively. Segmentation quality across cases in the hold-out datasets was variable however both the ensemble and MCDO uncertainty estimation approaches were able to accurately estimate model confidence with a p-value < 0.001 for both TOPGEAR and RAVES when comparing the DSC using the Pearson correlation coefficient. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated that training auto-segmentation models which can estimate aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty using limited datasets is possible. Having the model estimate prediction confidence is important to understand for which unseen cases a model is likely to be useful.
Assuntos
Imageamento Tridimensional , Humanos , Incerteza , Imageamento Tridimensional/métodos , Neoplasias da Próstata/radioterapia , Neoplasias da Próstata/diagnóstico por imagem , Masculino , Ensaios Clínicos como Assunto , Conjuntos de Dados como Assunto , Algoritmos , Tomografia Computadorizada por Raios XRESUMO
Purpose: We describe a case of traumatic cataract after improper use of a percussion massage gun over the periorbital area. Observations: A 38-year-old female with a history of high myopia and fibromyalgia presented to the emergency department with painless monocular vision loss OS, noticed two days prior and described as a "white film" over her eye. BCVA was 20/20 OD and 20/600 OS. IOP was normal. Slit lamp examination OS showed a dense posterior subcapsular cataract in a rosette pattern without signs of zonular instability. B-scan ultrasonography showed a clear vitreous cavity without structural globe anomalies. No other abnormalities were apparent. After ruling out other causes, vision loss was attributed to development of a traumatic cataract secondary to percussive massage gun use over the left temple and periorbital area, including directly over the eye, during the past few weeks as an attempt to relieve intractable headaches. Conclusion and importance: Improper use of massage guns can lead to severe ocular side effects including traumatic cataracts that may be difficult to manage. There is a need to educate patients about potential harms as well as require manufacturers to clearly display safety information.
RESUMO
Objectives: Many orbital fracture patients are transferred to tertiary care centers for immediate ophthalmology consultation, though few require urgent ophthalmic evaluation or intervention. This overutilizes limited resources and overburdens patients and the health care system with travel and emergency department (ED) expenses. A simple, easy-to-use, clinical decision-making tool is needed to aid local EDs and triage services in effectively identifying orbital fracture patients who need urgent ophthalmic evaluation. Design: Single center, retrospective cohort study. Subjects: Orbital fracture patients aged ≥ 18 years who presented to the study institution's emergency department and received an ophthalmology consultation. Methods: Ocular injuries that required close monitoring or an intervention within the first few hours after presentation were termed urgent. Two Hawkeye Orbital Fracture Prioritization and Evaluation (HOPE) algorithms were developed to identify orbital fracture patients needing urgent evaluation; including 1 algorithm incorporating computerized tomography (CT) scans interpreted by ophthalmology (HOPE+CT). Algorithms were compared with 3 previously published protocols: the University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston (UTH), the South Texas Orbital Fracture Protocol (STOP), and Massachusetts Eye and Ear (MEE) algorithms. Main Outcome Measures: Correct triage of patients with orbital fractures who have urgent ocular or orbital conditions. Results: In the study institution's ED, 134 adult patients (145 orbits) were seen with orbital fractures in 2019. Eighteen (13.4%) had ocular or orbital conditions categorized as urgent. The HOPE tool resulted in 100% sensitivity and 78.4% specificity. The HOPE+CT tool resulted in 100.0% sensitivity and 94.0% specificity. The UTH algorithm was 91.7% sensitive and 76.5% specific. South Texas Orbital Fracture Protocol and MEE were both 100% sensitive but only 35.1% and 32.8% specific, respectively. Conclusions: The HOPE and HOPE+CT algorithms were superior or equal to the UTH, STOP, and MEE algorithms in terms of specificity while detecting all urgent cases. Implementation of a triage protocol that uses the HOPE or HOPE+CT algorithms could improve resource utilization and reduce health care costs through identification of orbital fracture patients needing urgent evaluation. An online tool that deploys the HOPE+CT algorithm in a user-friendly interface has been developed and is undergoing prospective validation before public dissemination. Financial Disclosures: Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found in the Footnotes and Disclosures at the end of this article.
RESUMO
PRAME is a CUL2 ubiquitin ligase subunit that is normally expressed in the testis but becomes aberrantly overexpressed in many cancer types in association with aneuploidy and metastasis. Here, we show that PRAME is expressed predominantly in spermatogonia around the time of meiotic crossing-over in coordination with genes mediating DNA double strand break repair. Expression of PRAME in somatic cells upregulates pathways involved in meiosis, chromosome segregation and DNA repair, and it leads to increased DNA double strand breaks, telomere dysfunction and aneuploidy in neoplastic and non-neoplastic cells. This effect is mediated at least in part by ubiquitination of SMC1A and altered cohesin function. PRAME expression renders cells susceptible to inhibition of PARP1/2, suggesting increased dependence on alternative base excision repair pathways. These findings reveal a distinct oncogenic function of PRAME that can be targeted therapeutically in cancer.
Assuntos
Melanoma , Neoplasias Uveais , Masculino , Humanos , Melanoma/genética , Reparo do DNA/genética , DNA , Instabilidade Genômica , Aneuploidia , Meiose , Antígenos de Neoplasias/metabolismoRESUMO
Finding tunable van der Waals (vdW) ferromagnets that operate at above room temperature is an important research focus in physics and materials science. Most vdW magnets are only intrinsically magnetic far below room temperature and magnetism with square-shaped hysteresis at room temperature has yet to be observed. Here, we report magnetism in a quasi-2D magnet Cr_{1.2}Te_{2} observed at room temperature (290 K). This magnetism was tuned via a protonic gate with an electron doping concentration up to 3.8×10^{21} cm^{-3}. We observed nonmonotonic evolutions in both coercivity and anomalous Hall resistivity. Under increased electron doping, the coercivities and anomalous Hall effects (AHEs) vanished, indicating a doping-induced magnetic phase transition. This occurred up to room temperature. DFT calculations showed the formation of an antiferromagnetic (AFM) phase caused by the intercalation of protons which induced significant electron doping in the Cr_{1.2}Te_{2}. The tunability of the magnetic properties and phase in room temperature magnetic vdW Cr_{1.2}Te_{2} is a significant step towards practical spintronic devices.
RESUMO
BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Inter-hospital inequalities in head and neck cancer (HNC) survival may exist due to variation in radiotherapy treatment-related factors. This study investigated inter-hospital variation in data collection, primary radiotherapy treatment, and survival in HNC patients from an Australian setting. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data collected in oncology information systems (OIS) from seven Australian hospitals was extracted for 3,182 adults treated with curative radiotherapy, with or without surgery or chemotherapy, for primary, non-metastatic squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck (2000-2017). Death data was sourced from the National Death Index using record linkage. Multivariable Cox regression was used to assess the association between survival and hospital. RESULTS: Inter-hospital variation in data collection, primary radiotherapy dose, and five-year HNC-related death was detected. Completion of eleven fields ranged from 66%-98%. Primary radiotherapy treated Tis-T1N0 glottic and any stage oral cavity and oropharynx cancers received significantly different time-corrected biologically equivalent dose in two gray fractions (EQD2T) by hospital, with observed deviation from Australian radiotherapy guidelines. Increased EQD2T dose was associated with a reduced risk of five-year HNC-related death in all patients and those treated with primary radiotherapy. Hospital, tumour site, and T and N classification were also identified as independent prognostic factors for five-year HNC-related death in all patients treated with radiotherapy. CONCLUSION: Unexplained variation exists in HNC-related death in patients treated at Australian hospitals. Available routinely collected data in OIS are insufficient to explain variation in survival. Innovative data collection, extraction, and classification practices are needed to inform clinical practice.
RESUMO
The reduced prevalence of insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes in countries with endemic parasitic worm infections suggests a protective role for worms against metabolic disorders, however clinical evidence has been non-existent. This 2-year randomised, double-blinded clinical trial in Australia of hookworm infection in 40 male and female adults at risk of type 2 diabetes assessed the safety and potential metabolic benefits of treatment with either 20 (n = 14) or 40 (n = 13) Necator americanus larvae (L3) or Placebo (n = 13) (Registration ACTRN12617000818336). Primary outcome was safety defined by adverse events and completion rate. Homoeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance, fasting blood glucose and body mass were key secondary outcomes. Adverse events were more frequent in hookworm-treated participants, where 44% experienced expected gastrointestinal symptoms, but completion rates were comparable to Placebo. Fasting glucose and insulin resistance were lowered in both hookworm-treated groups at 1 year, and body mass was reduced after L3-20 treatment at 2 years. This study suggests hookworm infection is safe in people at risk of type 2 diabetes and associated with improved insulin resistance, warranting further exploration of the benefits of hookworms on metabolic health.
Assuntos
Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2 , Infecções por Uncinaria , Resistência à Insulina , Animais , Masculino , Feminino , Infecções por Uncinaria/complicações , Infecções por Uncinaria/tratamento farmacológico , Infecções por Uncinaria/epidemiologia , Necator americanus , JejumRESUMO
Kimberlites are volatile-rich, occasionally diamond-bearing magmas that have erupted explosively at Earth's surface in the geologic past1-3. These enigmatic magmas, originating from depths exceeding 150 km in Earth's mantle1, occur in stable cratons and in pulses broadly synchronous with supercontinent cyclicity4. Whether their mobilization is driven by mantle plumes5 or by mechanical weakening of cratonic lithosphere4,6 remains unclear. Here we show that most kimberlites spanning the past billion years erupted about 30 million years (Myr) after continental breakup, suggesting an association with rifting processes. Our dynamical and analytical models show that physically steep lithosphere-asthenosphere boundaries (LABs) formed during rifting generate convective instabilities in the asthenosphere that slowly migrate many hundreds to thousands of kilometres inboard of rift zones. These instabilities endure many tens of millions of years after continental breakup and destabilize the basal tens of kilometres of the cratonic lithosphere, or keel. Displaced keel is replaced by a hot, upwelling mixture of asthenosphere and recycled volatile-rich keel in the return flow, causing decompressional partial melting. Our calculations show that this process can generate small-volume, low-degree, volatile-rich melts, closely matching the characteristics expected of kimberlites1-3. Together, these results provide a quantitative and mechanistic link between kimberlite episodicity and supercontinent cycles through progressive disruption of cratonic keels.
RESUMO
PRAME is a CUL2 ubiquitin ligase subunit that is normally expressed in the testis but becomes aberrantly overexpressed in many cancer types in association with aneuploidy and metastasis. Here, we show that PRAME is expressed predominantly in spermatogonia around the time of meiotic crossing-over in coordination with genes mediating DNA double strand break repair. Expression of PRAME in somatic cells upregulates pathways involved in meiosis, chromosome segregation and DNA repair, and it leads to increased DNA double strand breaks, telomere dysfunction and aneuploidy in neoplastic and non-neoplastic cells. This effect is mediated at least in part by ubiquitination of SMC1A and altered cohesin function. PRAME expression renders cells susceptible to inhibition of PARP1/2, suggesting increased dependence on alternative base excision repair pathways. These findings reveal a distinct oncogenic function of PRAME than can be targeted therapeutically in cancer.
RESUMO
PURPOSE: To investigate the segmentation approaches for bone metastases in differentiating benign from malignant bone lesions and characterizing malignant bone lesions. METHOD: The literature search was conducted in Scopus, PubMed, IEEE and MedLine, and Web of Science electronic databases following the guidelines of Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA). A total of 77 original articles, 24 review articles, and 1 comparison paper published between January 2010 and March 2022 were included in the review. RESULTS: The results showed that most studies used neural network-based approaches (58.44%) and CT-based imaging (50.65%) out of 77 original articles. However, the review highlights the lack of a gold standard for tumor boundaries and the need for manual correction of the segmentation output, which largely explains the absence of clinical translation studies. Moreover, only 19 studies (24.67%) specifically mentioned the feasibility of their proposed methods for use in clinical practice. CONCLUSION: Development of tumor segmentation techniques that combine anatomical information and metabolic activities is encouraging despite not having an optimal tumor segmentation method for all applications or can compensate for all the difficulties built into data limitations.
RESUMO
In progressing the use of big data in health systems, standardised nomenclature is required to enable data pooling and analyses. In many radiotherapy planning systems and their data archives, target volumes (TV) and organ-at-risk (OAR) structure nomenclature has not been standardised. Machine learning (ML) has been utilised to standardise volumes nomenclature in retrospective datasets. However, only subsets of the structures have been targeted. Within this paper, we proposed a new approach for standardising all the structures nomenclature by using multi-modal artificial neural networks. A cohort consisting of 1613 breast cancer patients treated with radiotherapy was identified from Liverpool & Macarthur Cancer Therapy Centres, NSW, Australia. Four types of volume characteristics were generated to represent each target and OAR volume: textual features, geometric features, dosimetry features, and imaging data. Five datasets were created from the original cohort, the first four represented different subsets of volumes and the last one represented the whole list of volumes. For each dataset, 15 sets of combinations of features were generated to investigate the effect of using different characteristics on the standardisation performance. The best model reported 99.416% classification accuracy over the hold-out sample when used to standardise all the nomenclatures in a breast cancer radiotherapy plan into 21 classes. Our results showed that ML based automation methods can be used for standardising naming conventions in a radiotherapy plan taking into consideration the inclusion of multiple modalities to better represent each volume.
RESUMO
Cancer centres rely on electronic information in oncology information systems (OIS) to guide patient care. We investigated the completeness and accuracy of routinely collected head and neck cancer (HNC) data sourced from an OIS for suitability in prognostic modelling and other research. Three hundred and fifty-three adults diagnosed from 2000 to 2017 with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma, treated with radiotherapy, were eligible. Thirteen clinically relevant variables in HNC prognosis were extracted from a single-centre OIS and compared to that compiled separately in a research dataset. These two datasets were compared for agreement using Cohen's kappa coefficient for categorical variables, and intraclass correlation coefficients for continuous variables. Research data was 96% complete compared to 84% for OIS data. Agreement was perfect for gender (κ = 1.000), high for age (κ = 0.993), site (κ = 0.992), T (κ = 0.851) and N (κ = 0.812) stage, radiotherapy dose (κ = 0.889), fractions (κ = 0.856), and duration (κ = 0.818), and chemotherapy treatment (κ = 0.871), substantial for overall stage (κ = 0.791) and vital status (κ = 0.689), moderate for grade (κ = 0.547), and poor for performance status (κ = 0.110). Thirty-one other variables were poorly captured and could not be statistically compared. Documentation of clinical information within the OIS for HNC patients is routine practice; however, OIS data was less correct and complete than data collected for research purposes. Substandard collection of routine data may hinder advancements in patient care. Improved data entry, integration with clinical activities and workflows, system usability, data dictionaries, and training are necessary for OIS data to generate robust research. Data mining from clinical documents may supplement structured data collection.
Assuntos
Neoplasias de Cabeça e Pescoço , Radioterapia (Especialidade) , Carcinoma de Células Escamosas de Cabeça e Pescoço , Adulto , Humanos , Neoplasias de Cabeça e Pescoço/terapia , Sistemas de Informação , Prognóstico , Carcinoma de Células Escamosas de Cabeça e Pescoço/terapia , Registros Eletrônicos de Saúde , Confiabilidade dos DadosRESUMO
PURPOSE: There is limited knowledge of the prediction of 2-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) in the head and neck cancer (HNC) population. The aim of this study is to develop and validate machine learning models and a nomogram for the prediction of 2-year CSS in patients with HNC using real-world data collected by major teaching and tertiary referral hospitals in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data collected in oncology information systems at multiple NSW Cancer Centres were extracted for 2,953 eligible adults diagnosed between 2000 and 2017 with squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck. Death data were sourced from the National Death Index using record linkage. Machine learning and Cox regression/nomogram models were developed and internally validated in Python and R, respectively. RESULTS: Machine learning models demonstrated highest performance (C-index) in the larynx and nasopharynx cohorts (0.82), followed by the oropharynx (0.79) and the hypopharynx and oral cavity cohorts (0.73). In the whole HNC population, C-indexes of 0.79 and 0.70 and Brier scores of 0.10 and 0.27 were reported for the machine learning and nomogram model, respectively. Cox regression analysis identified age, T and N classification, and time-corrected biologic equivalent dose in two gray fractions as independent prognostic factors for 2-year CSS. N classification was the most important feature used for prediction in the machine learning model followed by age. CONCLUSION: Machine learning and nomogram analysis predicted 2-year CSS with high performance using routinely collected and complete clinical information extracted from oncology information systems. These models function as visual decision-making tools to guide radiotherapy treatment decisions and provide insight into the prediction of survival outcomes in patients with HNC.
Assuntos
Neoplasias de Cabeça e Pescoço , Nomogramas , Adulto , Humanos , Prognóstico , Registros Eletrônicos de Saúde , Neoplasias de Cabeça e Pescoço/diagnóstico , Neoplasias de Cabeça e Pescoço/epidemiologia , Neoplasias de Cabeça e Pescoço/terapia , Aprendizado de MáquinaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Knowledge of the prognostic factors and performance of machine learning predictive models for 2-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) is limited in the head and neck cancer (HNC) population. METHODS: Data from our facilities' oncology information system (OIS) collected for routine practice (OIS dataset, n = 430 patients) and research purposes (research dataset, n = 529 patients) were extracted on adults diagnosed between 2000 and 2017 with squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck. RESULTS: Machine learning demonstrated excellent performance (area under the curve, AUC) in the whole cohort (AUC = 0.97, research dataset), larynx cohort (AUC = 0.98, both datasets), and oropharynx cohort (AUC = 0.99, both datasets). Tumor site and T classification were identified as predictors of 2-year CSS in both datasets. Hypothyroidism and fitness for operation were further identified in the research dataset. CONCLUSIONS: Datasets extracted from an OIS for routine clinical practice and research purposes demonstrated high utility for informing 2-year head and neck CSS.
Assuntos
Carcinoma de Células Escamosas , Neoplasias de Cabeça e Pescoço , Adulto , Humanos , Prognóstico , Registros Eletrônicos de Saúde , Neoplasias de Cabeça e Pescoço/terapia , Carcinoma de Células Escamosas/terapiaRESUMO
INTRODUCTION: Federated learning has the potential to perfrom analysis on decentralised data; however, there are some obstacles to survival analyses as there is a risk of data leakage. This study demonstrates how to perform a stratified Cox regression survival analysis specifically designed to avoid data leakage using federated learning on larynx cancer patients from centres in three different countries. METHODS: Data were obtained from 1821 larynx cancer patients treated with radiotherapy in three centres. Tumour volume was available for all 786 of the included patients. Parameter selection among eleven clinical and radiotherapy parameters were performed using best subset selection and cross-validation through the federated learning system, AusCAT. After parameter selection, ß regression coefficients were estimated using bootstrap. Calibration plots were generated at 2 and 5-years survival, and inner and outer risk groups' Kaplan-Meier curves were compared to the Cox model prediction. RESULTS: The best performing Cox model included log(GTV), performance status, age, smoking, haemoglobin and N-classification; however, the simplest model with similar statistical prediction power included log(GTV) and performance status only. The Harrell C-indices for the simplest model were for Odense, Christie and Liverpool 0.75[0.71-0.78], 0.65[0.59-0.71], and 0.69[0.59-0.77], respectively. The values are slightly higher for the full model with C-index 0.77[0.74-0.80], 0.67[0.62-0.73] and 0.71[0.61-0.80], respectively. Smoking during treatment has the same hazard as a ten-years older nonsmoking patient. CONCLUSION: Without any patient-specific data leaving the hospitals, a stratified Cox regression model based on data from centres in three countries was developed without data leakage risks. The overall survival model is primarily driven by tumour volume and performance status.