Seasonal influenza vaccination is associated with reduced risk of death among Medicare beneficiaries☆.

BACKGROUND: Influenza causes substantial mortality, especially among older persons. Influenza vaccines are rarely more than 50% effective and rarely reach more than half of the US Medicare population, which is primarily an aged population. We wished to estimate the association between vaccination and mortality reduction. METHOD: We used the US Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) DataLink Project to determine vaccination status and timing during the 2017-2018 influenza season for more than 26 million Medicare enrollees. Patient-level demographic, health, co-morbidity, hospitalization, vaccination, and healthcare utilization claims data were supplied as covariates to general linear models in order to isolate and estimate the association between participation in the vaccination program and relative risk of death. FINDINGS: The 2017-2018 seasonal influenza vaccine reduced (Relative Risk Ratio [RRR] 0.936 [95% CI = 0.918-0.954]) the risk of all-cause death among beneficiaries following a hospitalization for sepsis and moreover the risk of death without a prior hospitalization during the 2.5-month outcome window (RRR 0.870 [95% CI = 0.853-0.887]). We estimate the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent a death in the ten-week outcome window is between 1,515 beneficiaries (95% CI = 1,351-1,754; derived from the average treatment effect of augmented inverse probability weighting) and 1,960 beneficiaries (95% CI = 1,695-2,381; derived from the average marginal effect of logistic regression). Among beneficiaries requiring hospitalization, the greatest death risk reduction accrued to those 85 + years of age who were hospitalized with sepsis, RRR 0.92 [95% CI = 0.89-0.95]. No apparent benefit was realized by beneficiaries who required custodial (nursing home) care. INTERPRETATION: Seasonal influenza immunization is associated with relative reduction of death risk among non-institutionalized Medicare beneficiaries. FUNDING: All authors are full-time or contractual employees of the United States Federal Government, Department of Health and Human Services, the funding agency.

Observations from the emergency management of dialysis patients evacuated from the US Virgin Islands to Puerto Rico following hurricane Irma.

Two category 5 hurricanes, Irma and Maria, arrived in the Caribbean in September 2017 in rapid succession. On September 6, Irma devastated the islands of St. Thomas and St. John, in the Virgin Islands of the United States (USVI). Most medical infrastructure was damaged, including hemodialysis facilities, paralyzing dialysis operations. After Irma's landfall, Puerto Rico served as a safehaven for thousands of displaced and repatriated persons from the impacted islands. These included a cohort of 129 hemodialysis patients evacuated from St. Thomas, USVI to San Juan, Puerto Rico from September 9-11, 2017. The hemodialysis patients arrived first at hotels in San Juan and were then transferred to a Special Needs Shelter, run by the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and located in the Puerto Rico Convention Center. With the imminent arrival of Hurricane Maria, most patients were evacuated on September 19 to a special needs shelter on the campus of the Florida International University, in Miami, Florida. While in San Juan, hemodialysis treatments were provided by local nephrologists working with local hemodialysis centers. Here, we describe the challenges and the emergency management actions taken to ensure continuity of care, including providing dialysis, general medical care, shelter, food and transportation for USVI dialysis patients during their stay in San Juan, Puerto Rico. We describe here the experiences of federal and host state/territorial officials in the special needs shelter, in the context of the state/territorial and federal response to disasters, in order to provide ideas about challenges, solutions, and approaches to coordinating care for dialysis patients evacuated from a disaster.

Sepsis Among Medicare Beneficiaries: 4. Precoronavirus Disease 2019 Update January 2012-February 2020.

OBJECTIVES: To provide updated information on the burdens of sepsis during acute inpatient admissions for Medicare beneficiaries. DESIGN: Analysis of paid Medicare claims via the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services DataLink Project. SETTING: All U.S. acute-care hospitals, excluding federally operated hospitals (Veterans Administration and Defense Health Agency). PATIENTS: All Medicare beneficiaries, January 2012-February 2020, with an explicit sepsis diagnostic code assigned during an inpatient admission. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The count of Medicare Part A/B (fee-for-service) plus Medicare Advantage inpatient sepsis admissions rose from 981,027 (CY2012) to 1,700,433 (CY 2019). The proportion of total admissions with sepsis in the Medicare Advantage population rose from 21.43% to 35.39%, reflecting the increasing beneficiary proportion enrolled in Medicare Advantage. In CY2019, 6-month mortality rates in Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries for sepsis continued to decline, but remained high: 59.9% for septic shock, 35.5% for severe sepsis, 30.8% for sepsis attributed to a specific organism, and 26.5% for unspecified sepsis. Total fee-for-service-only inpatient hospital costs rose from $17.79B (CY2012) to $22.98B (CY2019). We estimated that the aggregate cost of sepsis hospital care for the entire U.S. population was at least $57.47B in 2019. Inclusion of 14 months' (January 2019-February 2020) newer data exposed new trends: the cost per patient, number of admissions, and fraction of patients with sepsis labeled as present on admission inflected around November 2015, coincident with the change to International Classification of Diseases, 10th Edition, and introduction of the Severe Sepsis and Septic Shock Management Bundle (SEP-1) metric. CONCLUSIONS: Sepsis among Medicare beneficiaries precoronavirus disease 2019 imposed immense burdens upon patients, their families, and the taxpayers.

Sepsis Among Medicare Beneficiaries: 1. The Burdens of Sepsis, 2012-2018.

OBJECTIVES: To provide contemporary estimates of the burdens (costs and mortality) associated with acute inpatient Medicare beneficiary admissions for sepsis. DESIGN: Analysis of paid Medicare claims via the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services DataLink Project. SETTING: All U.S. acute care hospitals, excluding federally operated hospitals (Veterans Administration and Defense Health Agency). PATIENTS: All Medicare beneficiaries, 2012-2018, with an inpatient admission including one or more explicit sepsis codes. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Total inpatient hospital and skilled nursing facility admission counts, costs, and mortality over time. From calendar year (CY)2012-CY2018, the total number of Medicare Part A/B (fee-for-service) beneficiaries with an inpatient hospital admission associated with an explicit sepsis code rose from 811,644 to 1,136,889. The total cost of inpatient hospital admission including an explicit sepsis code for those beneficiaries in those calendar years rose from $17,792,657,303 to $22,439,794,212. The total cost of skilled nursing facility care in the 90 days subsequent to an inpatient hospital discharge that included an explicit sepsis code for Medicare Part A/B rose from $3,931,616,160 to $5,623,862,486 over that same interval. Precise costs are not available for Medicare Part C (Medicare Advantage) patients. Using available federal data sources, we estimated the aggregate cost of inpatient admissions and skilled nursing facility admissions for Medicare Advantage patients to have risen from $6.0 to $13.4 billion over the CY2012-CY2018 interval. Combining data for fee-for-service beneficiaries and estimates for Medicare Advantage beneficiaries, we estimate the total inpatient admission sepsis cost and any subsequent skilled nursing facility admission for all (fee-for-service and Medicare Advantage) Medicare patients to have risen from $27.7 to $41.5 billion. Contemporary 6-month mortality rates for Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries with a sepsis inpatient admission remain high: for septic shock, approximately 60%; for severe sepsis, approximately 36%; for sepsis attributed to a specific organism, approximately 31%; and for unspecified sepsis, approximately 27%. CONCLUSION: Sepsis remains common, costly to treat, and presages significant mortality for Medicare beneficiaries.

Sepsis Among Medicare Beneficiaries: 2. The Trajectories of Sepsis, 2012-2018.

OBJECTIVES: To distinguish characteristics of Medicare beneficiaries who will have an acute inpatient admission for sepsis from those who have an inpatient admission without sepsis, and to describe their further trajectories during and subsequent to those inpatient admissions. DESIGN: Analysis of paid Medicare claims via the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services DataLink Project. SETTING: All U.S. acute care hospitals, excepting federal hospitals (Veterans Administration and Defense Health Agency). PATIENTS: Medicare beneficiaries, 2012-2018, with an inpatient hospital admission including one or more explicit sepsis codes. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Prevalent diagnoses in the year prior to the inpatient admission; healthcare contacts in the week prior to the inpatient admission; discharges, transfers, readmissions, and deaths (trajectories) for 6 months following discharge from the inpatient admission. Beneficiaries with no sepsis inpatient hospital admission for a year prior to an index hospital admission for sepsis were nearly indistinguishable by accumulated diagnostic codes from beneficiaries who had an index hospital admission without sepsis. Although the timing of healthcare services in the week prior to inpatient hospital admission was similar among beneficiaries who would be admitted for sepsis versus those whose inpatient admission did not include a sepsis code, the setting differed: beneficiaries destined for a sepsis admission were more likely to have received skilled nursing or unskilled nursing (e.g., nursing aide for activities of daily living) care. In contrast, comparing beneficiaries who had been free of any inpatient admission for an entire year and then required an inpatient admission, acute inpatient stays that included a sepsis code led to more than three times as many deaths within 1 week of discharge, with more admissions to skilled nursing facilities and fewer discharges to home. Comparing all beneficiaries who were admitted to a skilled nursing facility after an inpatient hospital admission, those who had sepsis coded during the index admission were more likely to die in the skilled nursing facility; more likely to be readmitted to an acute inpatient hospital and subsequently die in that setting; or if they survive to discharge from the skilled nursing facility, they are more likely to go next to a custodial nursing home. CONCLUSIONS: Although Medicare beneficiaries destined for an inpatient hospital admission with a sepsis code are nearly indistinguishable by other diagnostic codes from those whose admissions will not have a sepsis code, their healthcare trajectories following the admission are worse. This suggests that an inpatient stay that included a sepsis code not only identifies beneficiaries who were less resilient to infection but also signals increased risk for worsening health, for mortality, and for increased use of advanced healthcare services during and postdischarge along with an increased likelihood of an inpatient hospital readmission.

Sepsis Among Medicare Beneficiaries: 3. The Methods, Models, and Forecasts of Sepsis, 2012-2018.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of sepsis, age, and comorbidities on death following an acute inpatient admission and to model and forecast inpatient and skilled nursing facility costs for Medicare beneficiaries during and subsequent to an acute inpatient sepsis admission. DESIGN: Analysis of paid Medicare claims via the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services DataLink Project (CMS) and leveraging the CMS-Hierarchical Condition Category risk adjustment model. SETTING: All U.S. acute care hospitals, excepting federal hospitals (Veterans Administration and Defense Health Agency). PATIENTS: All Part A/B (fee-for-service) Medicare beneficiaries with an acute inpatient admission in 2017 and who had no inpatient sepsis admission in the prior year. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Logistic regression models to determine covariate risk contribution to death following an acute inpatient admission; conventional regression to predict Medicare beneficiary sepsis costs. Using the Hierarchical Condition Category risk adjustment model to illuminate influence of illness on outcome of inpatient admissions, representative odds ratios (with 95% CIs) for death within 6 months of an admission (referenced to beneficiaries admitted but without the characteristic) are as follows: septic shock, 7.27 (7.19-7.35); metastatic cancer and acute leukemia (Hierarchical Condition Category 8), 6.76 (6.71-6.82); all sepsis, 2.63 (2.62-2.65); respiratory arrest (Hierarchical Condition Category 83), 2.55 (2.35-2.77); end-stage liver disease (Hierarchical Condition Category 27), 2.53 (2.49-2.56); and severe sepsis without shock, 2.48 (2.45-2.51). Models of the cost of sepsis care for Medicare beneficiaries forecast arise approximately 13% over 2 years owing the rising enrollments in Medicare offset by the cost of care per admission. CONCLUSIONS: A sepsis inpatient admission is associated with marked increase in risk of death that is comparable to the risks associated with inpatient admissions for other common and serious chronic illnesses. The aggregate costs of sepsis care for Medicare beneficiaries will continue to increase.

Early Dialysis and Adverse Outcomes After Hurricane Sandy.

BACKGROUND: Hemodialysis patients have historically experienced diminished access to care and increased adverse outcomes after natural disasters. Although "early dialysis" in advance of a storm is promoted as a best practice, evidence for its effectiveness as a protective measure is lacking. Building on prior work, we examined the relationship between the receipt of dialysis ahead of schedule before the storm (also known as early dialysis) and adverse outcomes of patients with end-stage renal disease in the areas most affected by Hurricane Sandy. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort analysis, using claims data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Datalink Project. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: Patients receiving long-term hemodialysis in New York City and the state of New Jersey, the areas most affected by Hurricane Sandy. FACTOR: Receipt of early dialysis compared to their usual treatment pattern in the week prior to the storm. OUTCOMES: Emergency department (ED) visits, hospitalizations, and 30-day mortality following the storm. RESULTS: Of 13,836 study patients, 8,256 (60%) received early dialysis. In unadjusted logistic regression models, patients who received early dialysis were found to have lower odds of ED visits (OR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.63-0.89; P=0.001) and hospitalizations (OR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.65-0.92; P=0.004) in the week of the storm and similar odds of 30-day mortality (OR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.58-1.09; P=0.2). In adjusted multivariable logistic regression models, receipt of early dialysis was associated with lower odds of ED visits (OR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.67-0.96; P=0.01) and hospitalizations (OR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.66-0.94; P=0.01) in the week of the storm and 30-day mortality (OR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.52-0.997; P=0.048). LIMITATIONS: Inability to determine which patients were offered early dialysis and declined and whether important unmeasured patient characteristics are associated with receipt of early dialysis. CONCLUSIONS: Patients who received early dialysis had significantly lower odds of having an ED visit and hospitalization in the week of the storm and of dying within 30 days.

State of emergency preparedness for US health insurance plans.

OBJECTIVES: Health insurance plans serve a critical role in public health emergencies, yet little has been published about their collective emergency preparedness practices and policies. We evaluated, on a national scale, the state of health insurance plans' emergency preparedness and policies. STUDY DESIGN: A survey of health insurance plans. METHODS: We queried members of America's Health Insurance Plans, the national trade association representing the health insurance industry, about issues related to emergency preparedness issues: infrastructure, adaptability, connectedness, and best practices. RESULTS: Of 137 health insurance plans queried, 63% responded, representing 190.6 million members and 81% of US plan enrollment. All respondents had emergency plans for business continuity, and most (85%) had infrastructure for emergency teams. Some health plans also have established benchmarks for preparedness (eg, response time). Regarding adaptability, 85% had protocols to extend claim filing time and 71% could temporarily suspend prior medical authorization rules. Regarding connectedness, many plans shared their contingency plans with health officials, but often cited challenges in identifying regulatory agency contacts. Some health insurance plans had specific policies for assisting individuals dependent on durable medical equipment or home healthcare. Many plans (60%) expressed interest in sharing best practices. CONCLUSIONS: Health insurance plans are prioritizing emergency preparedness. We identified 6 policy modifications that health insurance plans could undertake to potentially improve healthcare system preparedness: establishing metrics and benchmarks for emergency preparedness; identifying disaster-specific policy modifications, enhancing stakeholder connectedness, considering digital strategies to enhance communication, improving support and access for special-needs individuals, and developing regular forums for knowledge exchange about emergency preparedness.

Dialysis care and death following Hurricane Sandy.

BACKGROUND: Hurricane Sandy affected access to critical health care infrastructure. Patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) historically have experienced problems accessing care and adverse outcomes during disasters. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study with 2 comparison groups. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: Using Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services claims data, we assessed the frequency of early dialysis, emergency department (ED) visits, hospitalizations, and 30-day mortality for patients with ESRD in Sandy-affected areas (study group) and 2 comparison groups: (1) patients with ESRD living in states unaffected by Sandy during the same period and (2) patients with ESRD living in the Sandy-affected region a year prior to the hurricane (October 1, 2011, through October 30, 2011). FACTOR: Regional variation in dialysis care patterns and mortality for patients with ESRD in New York City and the State of New Jersey. MEASUREMENTS: Frequency of early dialysis, ED visits, hospitalizations, and 30-day mortality. RESULTS: Of 13,264 study patients, 59% received early dialysis in 70% of the New York City and New Jersey dialysis facilities. The ED visit rate was 4.1% for the study group compared with 2.6% and 1.7%, respectively, for comparison groups 1 and 2 (both P<0.001). The hospitalization rate for the study group also was significantly higher than that in either comparison group (4.5% vs 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively; P<0.001 and P<0.003). 23% of study group patients who visited the ED received dialysis in the ED compared with 9.3% and 6.3% in comparison groups 1 and 2, respectively (both P<0.001). The 30-day mortality rate for the study group was slightly higher than that for either comparison group (1.83% vs 1.47% and 1.60%, respectively; P<0.001 and P=0.1). LIMITATIONS: Lack of facility level damage and disaster-induced power outage severity data. CONCLUSIONS: Nearly half the study group patients received early dialysis prior to Sandy's landfall. Poststorm increases in ED visits, hospitalizations, and 30-day mortality were found in the study group, but not in the comparison groups.

Using Medicare data to identify individuals who are electricity dependent to improve disaster preparedness and response.

During a disaster or prolonged power outage, individuals who use electricity-dependent medical equipment are often unable to operate it and seek care in acute care settings or local shelters. Public health officials often report that they do not have proactive and systematic ways to rapidly identify and assist these individuals. In June 2013, we piloted a first-in-the-nation emergency preparedness drill in which we used Medicare claims data to identify individuals with electricity-dependent durable medical equipment during a disaster and securely disclosed it to a local health department. We found that Medicare claims data were 93% accurate in identifying individuals using a home oxygen concentrator or ventilator. The drill findings suggest that claims data can be useful in improving preparedness and response for electricity-dependent populations.