Neutralizing Antibody Immune Correlates for a Recombinant Protein Vaccine in the COVAIL Trial.

For COVAIL recipients of a COVID-19 Sanofi booster vaccine, neutralizing antibody titers were assessed as a correlate of risk (CoR) of COVID-19. Peak and exposure-proximal titers were inverse CoRs with covariate-adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) 0.30 (0.11, 0.78) and 0.25 (0.07, 0.85) per 10-fold increase in weighted average titer.

Omicron COVID-19 immune correlates analysis of a third dose of mRNA-1273 in the COVE trial.

In the phase 3 Coronavirus Efficacy (COVE) trial (NCT04470427), post-dose two Ancestral Spike-specific binding (bAb) and neutralizing (nAb) antibodies were shown to be correlates of risk (CoR) and of protection against Ancestral-lineage COVID-19 in SARS-CoV-2 naive participants. In the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron era, Omicron subvariants with varying degrees of immune escape now dominate, seropositivity rates are high, and booster doses are administered, raising questions on whether and how these developments affect the bAb and nAb correlates. To address these questions, we assess post-boost BA.1 Spike-specific bAbs and nAbs as CoRs and as correlates of booster efficacy in COVE. For naive individuals, bAbs and nAbs inversely correlate with Omicron COVID-19: hazard ratios (HR) per 10-fold marker increase (95% confidence interval) are 0.16 (0.03, 0.79) and 0.31 (0.10, 0.96), respectively. In non-naive individuals the analogous results are similar: 0.15 (0.04, 0.63) and 0.28 (0.07, 1.08). For naive individuals, three vs two-dose booster efficacy correlates with predicted nAb titer at exposure, with estimates -8% (-126%, 48%), 50% (25%, 67%), and 74% (49%, 87%), at 56, 251, and 891 Arbitrary Units/ml. These results support the continued use of antibody as a surrogate endpoint.

Web-based survey investigating cardiovascular complications in hypermobile Ehlers-Danlos syndrome after COVID-19 infection and vaccination.

BACKGROUND: Hypermobile Ehlers-Danlos syndrome is a heritable connective tissue disorder associated with generalized joint hypermobility but also other multisystem comorbidities, many of which may be exacerbated during a viral illness or after a vaccination. We sought to determine whether individuals with hypermobile Ehlers Danlos syndrome report an increase in adverse events, including cardiovascular events, after COVID-19 illness or vaccination. METHODS: A cross-sectional web-based survey was made available from November 22, 2021, through March 15, 2022. 368 respondents primarily from the United States self-reported data including diagnosis. We used a Cox proportional hazards model with time varying indicators for COVID-19 illness or vaccination in the previous 30 days. RESULTS: We found a significantly increased rate of new abnormal heart rhythms reported in the 30 days following COVID-19 illness. No additional cardiovascular events were reported after COVID-19 illness. 2.5% of respondents with COVID-19 illness were hospitalized. We did not find a statistically significant increased rate of cardiovascular events in the 30 days following any COVID-19 vaccination dose. Post COVID-19 vaccination, 87.2% of hypermobile Ehlers-Danlos syndrome respondents endorsed an expected adverse event (EAE), and 3.1% reported an emergency department visit/hospitalization, of those who received at least one vaccine dose. Events possibly reflecting exacerbation of orthostasis/dysautonomia were common. CONCLUSION: Respondents did not report an increased rate of any cardiovascular events in the 30 days following COVID-19 vaccination; however, those with hypermobile Ehlers-Danlos syndrome experienced a high rate of expected adverse events after vaccination consistent with a high baseline prevalence of similar symptoms. No cardiovascular events other than new abnormal heart rhythms were reported at any point after a COVID-19 illness.

Impact of Surge Strain and Pandemic Progression on Prognostication by an Established COVID-19-Specific Severity Score.

IMPORTANCE: Many U.S. State crisis standards of care (CSC) guidelines incorporated Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), a sepsis-related severity score, in pandemic triage algorithms. However, SOFA performed poorly in COVID-19. Although disease-specific scores may perform better, their prognostic utility over time and in overcrowded care settings remains unclear. OBJECTIVES: We evaluated prognostication by the modified 4C (m4C) score, a COVID-19-specific prognosticator that demonstrated good predictive capacity early in the pandemic, as a potential tool to standardize triage across time and hospital-surge environments. DESIGN: Retrospective observational cohort study. SETTING: Two hundred eighty-one U.S. hospitals in an administrative healthcare dataset. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 298,379 hospitalized adults with COVID-19 were identified from March 1, 2020, to January 31, 2022. m4C scores were calculated from admission diagnosis codes, vital signs, and laboratory values. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Hospital-surge index, a severity-weighted measure of COVID-19 caseload, was calculated for each hospital-month. Discrimination of in-hospital mortality by m4C and surge index-adjusted models was measured by area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC). Calibration was assessed by training models on early pandemic waves and measuring fit (deviation from bisector) in subsequent waves. RESULTS: From March 2020 to January 2022, 298,379 adults with COVID-19 were admitted across 281 U.S. hospitals. m4C adequately discriminated mortality in wave 1 (AUC 0.779 [95% CI, 0.769-0.789]); discrimination was lower in subsequent waves (wave 2: 0.772 [95% CI, 0.765-0.779]; wave 3: 0.746 [95% CI, 0.743-0.750]; delta: 0.707 [95% CI, 0.702-0.712]; omicron: 0.729 [95% CI, 0.721-0.738]). m4C demonstrated reduced calibration in contemporaneous waves that persisted despite periodic recalibration. Performance characteristics were similar with and without adjustment for surge. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Mortality prediction by the m4C score remained robust to surge strain, making it attractive for when triage is most needed. However, score performance has deteriorated in recent waves. CSC guidelines relying on defined prognosticators, especially for dynamic disease processes like COVID-19, warrant frequent reappraisal to ensure appropriate resource allocation.

Malaria transmission-blocking vaccines Pfs230D1-EPA and Pfs25-EPA in Alhydrogel in healthy Malian adults; a phase 1, randomised, controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Malaria transmission-blocking vaccines target mosquito-stage parasites and will support elimination programmes. Gamete vaccine Pfs230D1-EPA/Alhydrogel induced superior activity to zygote vaccine Pfs25-EPA/Alhydrogel in malaria-naive US adults. Here, we compared these vaccines in malaria-experienced Malians. METHODS: We did a pilot safety study then double-blind, block-randomised, comparator-controlled main-phase trial in malaria-intense Bancoumana, Mali. 18-50-year-old healthy non-pregnant, non-breastfeeding consenting adult residents were randomly assigned (1:1:1:1) to receive four doses at months 0, 1, 4·5, and 16·5 of either 47 µg Pfs25, 40 µg Pfs230D1 or comparator (Twinrix or Menactra)-all co-administered with normal saline for blinding-or 47 µg Pfs25 plus 40 µg Pfs230D1 co-administered. We documented safety and tolerability (primary endpoint in the as-treated populations) and immunogenicity (secondary endpoint in the as-treated populations: ELISA, standard-membrane-feeding assay, and mosquito direct skin feed assay). This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02334462. FINDINGS: Between March 19, and June 2, 2015, we screened 471 individuals. Of 225 enrolled for the pilot and main cohorts, we randomly assigned 25 participants to pilot safety cohort groups of five (20%) to receive a two-dose series of Pfs25-EPA/Alhydrogel (16 µg), Pfs230D1-EPA/Alhydrogel (15 µg) or comparator, followed by Pfs25-EPA/Alhydrogel (16 µg) plus Pfs230D1-EPA/Alhydrogel (15 µg) or comparator plus saline. For the main cohort, we enrolled 200 participants between May 11 and June 2, 2015, to receive a four-dose series of 47 µg Pfs25-EPA/Alhydrogel plus saline (n=50 [25%]; Pfs25), 40 µg Pfs230D1-EPA/Alhydrogel plus saline (n=49 [25%]; Pfs230D1), 47 µg Pfs25-EPA/Alhydrogel plus 40 µg Pfs230D1-EPA/Alhydrogel (n=50 [25%]; Pfs25 plus Pfs230D1), or comparator (Twinrix or Menactra) plus saline (n=51 [25%]). Vaccinations were well tolerated in the pilot safety and main phases. Most vaccinees became seropositive after two Pfs230D1 or three Pfs25 doses; peak titres increased with each dose thereafter (Pfs230D1 geometric mean: 77·8 [95% CI 56·9-106·3], 146·4 [108·3-198·0], and 410·2 [301·6-558·0]; Pfs25 geometric mean 177·7 [130·3-242·4] and 315·7 [209·9-474·6]). Functional activity (mean peak transmission-reducing activity) appeared for Pfs230D1 (74·5% [66·6-82·5]) and Pfs25 plus Pfs230D1 (68·6% [57·3-79·8]), after the third dose and after the fourth dose (88·9% [81·7-96·2] for Pfs230D1 and 85·0% [78·4-91·5] Pfs25 plus Pfs230D1) but not for Pfs25 (58·2% [49·1-67·3] after the third dose and 58·2% [48·5-67·9] after the fourth dose). Pfs230D1 transmission-reducing activity (73·7% [64·1-83·3]) persisted 10 weeks after the fourth dose. Transmission-reducing activity of 80% was estimated at 1659 ELISA units for Pfs25, 218 for Pfs230D1, and 223 for Pfs230D1 plus Pfs25. After 3850 direct skin feed assays, 35 participants (12 Pfs25, eight Pfs230D1, five Pfs25 plus Pfs230D1, and ten comparator) had transmitted parasites at least once. The proportion of positive assays in vaccine groups (Pfs25 33 [3%] of 982 [-0·013 to 0·014], Pfs230D1 22 [2%] of 954 [-0·005 to 0·027], and combination 11 [1%] of 940 [-0·024 to 0·002]) did not differ from that of the comparator (22 [2%] of 974), nor did Pfs230D1 and combination groups differ (-0·024 to 0·001). INTERPRETATION: Pfs230D1 but not Pfs25 vaccine induces durable serum functional activity in Malian adults. Direct skin feed assays detect parasite transmission to mosquitoes but increased event rates are needed to assess vaccine effectiveness. FUNDING: Intramural Research Program of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and US National Institutes of Health.

Examining protective effects of SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies after vaccination or monoclonal antibody administration.

While new vaccines for SARS-CoV-2 are authorized based on neutralizing antibody (nAb) titer against emerging variants of concern, an analogous pathway does not exist for preventative monoclonal antibodies. In this work, nAb titers were assessed as correlates of protection against COVID-19 in the casirivimab + imdevimab monoclonal antibody (mAb) prevention trial (ClinicalTrials.gov #NCT4452318) and in the mRNA-1273 vaccine trial (ClinicalTrials.gov #NCT04470427). In the mAb trial, protective efficacy of 92% (95% confidence interval (CI): 84%, 98%) is associated with a nAb titer of 1000 IU50/ml, with lower efficacy at lower nAb titers. In the vaccine trial, protective efficacies of 93% [95% CI: 91%, 95%] and 97% (95% CI: 95%, 98%) are associated with nAb titers of 100 and 1000 IU50/ml, respectively. These data quantitate a nAb titer correlate of protection for mAbs benchmarked alongside vaccine induced nAb titers and support nAb titer as a surrogate endpoint for authorizing new mAbs.

Semi-parametric modeling of SARS-CoV-2 transmission using tests, cases, deaths, and seroprevalence data.

Mechanistic models fit to streaming surveillance data are critical to understanding the transmission dynamics of an outbreak as it unfolds in real-time. However, transmission model parameter estimation can be imprecise, and sometimes even impossible, because surveillance data are noisy and not informative about all aspects of the mechanistic model. To partially overcome this obstacle, Bayesian models have been proposed to integrate multiple surveillance data streams. We devised a modeling framework for integrating SARS-CoV-2 diagnostics test and mortality time series data, as well as seroprevalence data from cross-sectional studies, and tested the importance of individual data streams for both inference and forecasting. Importantly, our model for incidence data accounts for changes in the total number of tests performed. We model the transmission rate, infection-to-fatality ratio, and a parameter controlling a functional relationship between the true case incidence and the fraction of positive tests as time-varying quantities and estimate changes of these parameters nonparametrically. We compare our base model against modified versions which do not use diagnostics test counts or seroprevalence data to demonstrate the utility of including these often unused data streams. We apply our Bayesian data integration method to COVID-19 surveillance data collected in Orange County, California between March 2020 and February 2021 and find that 32-72% of the Orange County residents experienced SARS-CoV-2 infection by mid-January, 2021. Despite this high number of infections, our results suggest that the abrupt end of the winter surge in January 2021 was due to both behavioral changes and a high level of accumulated natural immunity.

Unraveling the Treatment Effect of Baricitinib on Clinical Progression and Resource Utilization in Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients: Secondary Analysis of the Adaptive COVID-19 Treatment Randomized Trial-2.

Background: The Adaptive COVID Treatment Trial-2 (ACTT-2) found that baricitinib in combination with remdesivir therapy (BCT) sped recovery in hospitalized coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients vs remdesivir monotherapy (RMT). We examined how BCT affected progression throughout hospitalization and utilization of intensive respiratory therapies. Methods: We characterized the clinical trajectories of 891 ACTT-2 participants requiring supplemental oxygen or higher levels of respiratory support at enrollment. We estimated the effect of BCT on cumulative incidence of clinical improvement and deterioration using competing risks models. We developed multistate models to estimate the effect of BCT on clinical improvement and deterioration and on utilization of respiratory therapies. Results: BCT resulted in more linear improvement and lower incidence of clinical deterioration compared with RMT (hazard ratio [HR], 0.74; 95% CI, 0.58 to 0.95). The benefit was pronounced among participants enrolled on high-flow oxygen or noninvasive positive-pressure ventilation. In this group, BCT sped clinical improvement (HR, 1.21; 95% CI, 0.99 to 1.51) while slowing clinical deterioration (HR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.48 to 1.02), which reduced the expected days in ordinal score (OS) 6 per 100 patients by 74 days (95% CI, -8 to 154 days) and the expected days in OS 7 per 100 patients by 161 days (95% CI, 46 to 291 days) compared with RMT. BCT did not benefit participants who were mechanically ventilated at enrollment. Conclusions: Compared with RMT, BCT reduces the clinical burden and utilization of intensive respiratory therapies for patients requiring low-flow oxygen or noninvasive positive-pressure ventilation compared with RMT and may thereby improve care for this patient population.

Discovering disease-causing pathogens in resource-scarce Southeast Asia using a global metagenomic pathogen monitoring system.

SignificanceMetagenomic pathogen sequencing offers an unbiased approach to characterizing febrile illness. In resource-scarce settings with high biodiversity, it is critical to identify disease-causing pathogens in order to understand burden and to prioritize efforts for control. Here, metagenomic next-generation sequencing (mNGS) characterization of the pathogen landscape in Cambodia revealed diverse vector-borne and zoonotic pathogens irrespective of age and gender as risk factors. Identification of key pathogens led to changes in national program surveillance. This study is a "real world" example of the use of mNGS surveillance of febrile individuals, executed in-country, to identify outbreaks of vector-borne, zoonotic, and other emerging pathogens in a resource-scarce setting.

Deconstructing the Treatment Effect of Remdesivir in the Adaptive Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Treatment Trial-1: Implications for Critical Care Resource Utilization.

BACKGROUND: The Adaptive Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Treatment Trial-1 (ACTT-1) found that remdesivir therapy hastened recovery in patients hospitalized with COVID-19, but the pathway for this improvement was not explored. We investigated how the dynamics of clinical progression changed along 4 pathways: recovery, improvement in respiratory therapy requirement, deterioration in respiratory therapy requirement, and death. METHODS: We analyzed trajectories of daily ordinal severity scores reflecting oxygen requirements of 1051 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 who participated in ACTT-1. We developed competing risks models that estimate the effect of remdesivir therapy on cumulative incidence of clinical improvement and deterioration, and multistate models that utilize the entirety of each patient's clinical course to characterize the effect of remdesivir on progression along the 4 pathways above. RESULTS: Based on a competing risks analysis, remdesivir reduced clinical deterioration (hazard ratio [HR], 0.73; 95% confidence interval [CI]: .59-.91) and increased clinical improvement (HR, 1.22; 95% CI: 1.08, 1.39) relative to baseline. Our multistate models indicate that remdesivir inhibits worsening to ordinal scores of greater clinical severity among patients on room air or low-flow oxygen (HR, 0.74; 95% CI: .57-.94) and among patients receiving mechanical ventilation or high-flow oxygen/noninvasive positive-pressure ventilation (HR, 0.73; 95% CI: .53-1.00) at baseline. We also find that remdesivir reduces expected intensive care respiratory therapy utilization among patients not mechanically ventilated at baseline. CONCLUSIONS: Remdesivir speeds time to recovery by preventing worsening to clinical states that would extend the course of hospitalization and increase intensive respiratory support, thereby reducing the overall demand for hospital care.

A linear noise approximation for stochastic epidemic models fit to partially observed incidence counts.

Stochastic epidemic models (SEMs) fit to incidence data are critical to elucidating outbreak dynamics, shaping response strategies, and preparing for future epidemics. SEMs typically represent counts of individuals in discrete infection states using Markov jump processes (MJPs), but are computationally challenging as imperfect surveillance, lack of subject-level information, and temporal coarseness of the data obscure the true epidemic. Analytic integration over the latent epidemic process is impossible, and integration via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is cumbersome due to the dimensionality and discreteness of the latent state space. Simulation-based computational approaches can address the intractability of the MJP likelihood, but are numerically fragile and prohibitively expensive for complex models. A linear noise approximation (LNA) that approximates the MJP transition density with a Gaussian density has been explored for analyzing prevalence data in large-population settings, but requires modification for analyzing incidence counts without assuming that the data are normally distributed. We demonstrate how to reparameterize SEMs to appropriately analyze incidence data, and fold the LNA into a data augmentation MCMC framework that outperforms deterministic methods, statistically, and simulation-based methods, computationally. Our framework is computationally robust when the model dynamics are complex and applies to a broad class of SEMs. We evaluate our method in simulations that reflect Ebola, influenza, and SARS-CoV-2 dynamics, and apply our method to national surveillance counts from the 2013-2015 West Africa Ebola outbreak.

Concordance of immunological events between intrarectal and intravenous SHIVAD8-EO infection when assessed by Fiebig-equivalent staging.

Primary HIV-1 infection can be classified into six Fiebig stages based on virological and serological laboratory testing, whereas simian-HIV (SHIV) infection in nonhuman primates (NHPs) is defined in time post-infection, making it difficult to extrapolate NHP experiments to the clinics. We identified and extensively characterized the Fiebig-equivalent stages in NHPs challenged intrarectally or intravenously with SHIVAD8-EO. During the first month post-challenge, intrarectally challenged monkeys were up to 1 week delayed in progression through stages. However, regardless of the challenge route, stages I-II predominated before, and stages V-VI predominated after, peak viremia. Decrease in lymph node (LN) CD4+ T cell frequency and rise in CD8+ T cells occurred at stage V. LN virus-specific CD8+ T cell responses, dominated by degranulation and TNF, were first detected at stage V and increased at stage VI. A similar late elevation in follicular CXCR5+ CD8+ T cells occurred, consistent with higher plasma CXCL13 levels at these stages. LN SHIVAD8-EO RNA+ cells were present at stage II, but appeared to decline at stage VI when virions accumulated in follicles. Fiebig-equivalent staging of SHIVAD8-EO infection revealed concordance of immunological events between intrarectal and intravenous infection despite different infection progressions, and can inform comparisons of NHP studies with clinical data.

Immune correlates of protection by mRNA-1273 vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 in nonhuman primates.

Immune correlates of protection can be used as surrogate endpoints for vaccine efficacy. Here, nonhuman primates (NHPs) received either no vaccine or doses ranging from 0.3 to 100 µg of the mRNA-1273 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccine. mRNA-1273 vaccination elicited circulating and mucosal antibody responses in a dose-dependent manner. Viral replication was significantly reduced in bronchoalveolar lavages and nasal swabs after SARS-CoV-2 challenge in vaccinated animals and most strongly correlated with levels of anti­S antibody and neutralizing activity. Lower antibody levels were needed for reduction of viral replication in the lower airway than in the upper airway. Passive transfer of mRNA-1273­induced immunoglobulin G to naïve hamsters was sufficient to mediate protection. Thus, mRNA-1273 vaccine­induced humoral immune responses are a mechanistic correlate of protection against SARS-CoV-2 in NHPs.

A linear noise approximation for stochastic epidemic models fit to partially observed incidence counts.

Stochastic epidemic models (SEMs) fit to incidence data are critical to elucidating outbreak dynamics, shaping response strategies, and preparing for future epidemics. SEMs typically represent counts of individuals in discrete infection states using Markov jump processes (MJPs), but are computationally challenging as imperfect surveillance, lack of subject-level information, and temporal coarseness of the data obscure the true epidemic. Analytic integration over the latent epidemic process is impossible, and integration via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is cumbersome due to the dimensionality and discreteness of the latent state space. Simulation-based computational approaches can address the intractability of the MJP likelihood, but are numerically fragile and prohibitively expensive for complex models. A linear noise approximation (LNA) that approximates the MJP transition density with a Gaussian density has been explored for analyzing prevalence data in large-population settings, but requires modification for analyzing incidence counts without assuming that the data are normally distributed. We demonstrate how to reparameterize SEMs to appropriately analyze incidence data, and fold the LNA into a data augmentation MCMC framework that outperforms deterministic methods, statistically, and simulation-based methods, computationally. Our framework is computationally robust when the model dynamics are complex and applies to a broad class of SEMs. We evaluate our method in simulations that reflect Ebola, influenza, and SARS-CoV-2 dynamics, and apply our method to national surveillance counts from the 2013--2015 West Africa Ebola outbreak.

A Deferred-Vaccination Design to Assess Durability of COVID-19 Vaccine Effect After the Placebo Group Is Vaccinated.

Multiple candidate vaccines to prevent COVID-19 have entered large-scale phase 3 placebo-controlled randomized clinical trials, and several have demonstrated substantial short-term efficacy. At some point after demonstration of substantial efficacy, placebo recipients should be offered the efficacious vaccine from their trial, which will occur before longer-term efficacy and safety are known. The absence of a placebo group could compromise assessment of longer-term vaccine effects. However, by continuing follow-up after vaccination of the placebo group, this study shows that placebo-controlled vaccine efficacy can be mathematically derived by assuming that the benefit of vaccination over time has the same profile for the original vaccine recipients and the original placebo recipients after their vaccination. Although this derivation provides less precise estimates than would be obtained by a standard trial where the placebo group remains unvaccinated, this proposed approach allows estimation of longer-term effect, including durability of vaccine efficacy and whether the vaccine eventually becomes harmful for some. Deferred vaccination, if done open-label, may lead to riskier behavior in the unblinded original vaccine group, confounding estimates of long-term vaccine efficacy. Hence, deferred vaccination via blinded crossover, where the vaccine group receives placebo and vice versa, would be the preferred way to assess vaccine durability and potential delayed harm. Deferred vaccination allows placebo recipients timely access to the vaccine when it would no longer be proper to maintain them on placebo, yet still allows important insights about immunologic and clinical effectiveness over time.

Assessing vaccine durability in randomized trials following placebo crossover.

Randomized vaccine trials are used to assess vaccine efficacy (VE) and to characterize the durability of vaccine-induced protection. If efficacy is demonstrated, the treatment of placebo volunteers becomes an issue. For COVID-19 vaccine trials, there is broad consensus that placebo volunteers should be offered a vaccine once efficacy has been established. This will likely lead to most placebo volunteers crossing over to the vaccine arm, thus complicating the assessment of long term durability. We show how to analyze durability following placebo crossover and demonstrate that the VE profile that would be observed in a placebo controlled trial is recoverable in a trial with placebo crossover. This result holds no matter when the crossover occurs and with no assumptions about the form of the efficacy profile. We only require that the VE profile applies to the newly vaccinated irrespective of the timing of vaccination. We develop different methods to estimate efficacy within the context of a proportional hazards regression model and explore via simulation the implications of placebo crossover for estimation of VE under different efficacy dynamics and study designs. We apply our methods to simulated COVID-19 vaccine trials with durable and waning VE and a total follow-up of 2 years.

Immune Correlates of Protection by mRNA-1273 Immunization against SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Nonhuman Primates.

Immune correlates of protection can be used as surrogate endpoints for vaccine efficacy. The nonhuman primate (NHP) model of SARS-CoV-2 infection replicates key features of human infection and may be used to define immune correlates of protection following vaccination. Here, NHP received either no vaccine or doses ranging from 0.3 - 100 µg of mRNA-1273, a mRNA vaccine encoding the prefusion-stabilized SARS-CoV-2 spike (S-2P) protein encapsulated in a lipid nanoparticle. mRNA-1273 vaccination elicited robust circulating and mucosal antibody responses in a dose-dependent manner. Viral replication was significantly reduced in bronchoalveolar lavages and nasal swabs following SARS-CoV-2 challenge in vaccinated animals and was most strongly correlated with levels of anti-S antibody binding and neutralizing activity. Consistent with antibodies being a correlate of protection, passive transfer of vaccine-induced IgG to naïve hamsters was sufficient to mediate protection. Taken together, these data show that mRNA-1273 vaccine-induced humoral immune responses are a mechanistic correlate of protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection in NHP. ONE-SENTENCE SUMMARY: mRNA-1273 vaccine-induced antibody responses are a mechanistic correlate of protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection in NHP.

Contributions of lipopolysaccharide and the type IVB secretion system to Coxiella burnetii vaccine efficacy and reactogenicity.

Coxiella burnetii is the bacterial causative agent of the zoonosis Q fever. The current human Q fever vaccine, Q-VAX®, is a fixed, whole cell vaccine (WCV) licensed solely for use in Australia. C. burnetii WCV administration is associated with a dermal hypersensitivity reaction in people with pre-existing immunity to C. burnetii, limiting wider use. Consequently, a less reactogenic vaccine is needed. Here, we investigated contributions of the C. burnetii Dot/Icm type IVB secretion system (T4BSS) and lipopolysaccharide (LPS) in protection and reactogenicity of fixed WCVs. A 32.5 kb region containing 23 dot/icm genes was deleted in the virulent Nine Mile phase I (NMI) strain and the resulting mutant was evaluated in guinea pig models of C. burnetii infection, vaccination-challenge, and post-vaccination hypersensitivity. The NMI ∆dot/icm strain was avirulent, protective as a WCV against a robust C. burnetii challenge, and displayed potentially altered reactogenicity compared to NMI. Nine Mile phase II (NMII) strains of C. burnetii that produce rough LPS, were similarly tested. NMI was significantly more protective than NMII as a WCV; however, both vaccines exhibited similar reactogenicity. Collectively, our results indicate that, like phase I LPS, the T4BSS is required for full virulence by C. burnetii. Conversely, unlike phase I LPS, the T4BSS is not required for vaccine-induced protection. LPS length does not appear to contribute to reactogenicity while the T4BSS may contribute to this response. NMI ∆dot/icm represents an avirulent phase I strain with full vaccine efficacy, illustrating the potential of genetically modified C. burnetii as improved WCVs.

An immune-based biomarker signature is associated with mortality in COVID-19 patients.

Immune and inflammatory responses to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) contribute to disease severity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, the utility of specific immune-based biomarkers to predict clinical outcome remains elusive. Here, we analyzed levels of 66 soluble biomarkers in 175 Italian patients with COVID-19 ranging from mild/moderate to critical severity and assessed type I IFN-, type II IFN-, and NF-κB-dependent whole-blood transcriptional signatures. A broad inflammatory signature was observed, implicating activation of various immune and nonhematopoietic cell subsets. Discordance between IFN-α2a protein and IFNA2 transcript levels in blood suggests that type I IFNs during COVID-19 may be primarily produced by tissue-resident cells. Multivariable analysis of patients' first samples revealed 12 biomarkers (CCL2, IL-15, soluble ST2 [sST2], NGAL, sTNFRSF1A, ferritin, IL-6, S100A9, MMP-9, IL-2, sVEGFR1, IL-10) that when increased were independently associated with mortality. Multivariate analyses of longitudinal biomarker trajectories identified 8 of the aforementioned biomarkers (IL-15, IL-2, NGAL, CCL2, MMP-9, sTNFRSF1A, sST2, IL-10) and 2 additional biomarkers (lactoferrin, CXCL9) that were substantially associated with mortality when increased, while IL-1α was associated with mortality when decreased. Among these, sST2, sTNFRSF1A, IL-10, and IL-15 were consistently higher throughout the hospitalization in patients who died versus those who recovered, suggesting that these biomarkers may provide an early warning of eventual disease outcome.