Wherever I may roam-Human activity alters movements of red deer (Cervus elaphus) and elk (Cervus canadensis) across two continents.

Human activity and associated landscape modifications alter the movements of animals with consequences for populations and ecosystems worldwide. Species performing long-distance movements are thought to be particularly sensitive to human impact. Despite the increasing anthropogenic pressure, it remains challenging to understand and predict animals' responses to human activity. Here we address this knowledge gap using 1206 Global Positioning System movement trajectories of 815 individuals from 14 red deer (Cervus elaphus) and 14 elk (Cervus canadensis) populations spanning wide environmental gradients, namely the latitudinal range from the Alps to Scandinavia in Europe, and the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem in North America. We measured individual-level movements relative to the environmental context, or movement expression, using the standardized metric Intensity of Use, reflecting both the directionality and extent of movements. We expected movement expression to be affected by resource (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI) predictability and topography, but those factors to be superseded by human impact. Red deer and elk movement expression varied along a continuum, from highly segmented trajectories over relatively small areas (high intensity of use), to directed transitions through restricted corridors (low intensity of use). Human activity (Human Footprint Index, HFI) was the strongest driver of movement expression, with a steep increase in Intensity of Use as HFI increased, but only until a threshold was reached. After exceeding this level of impact, the Intensity of Use remained unchanged. These results indicate the overall sensitivity of Cervus movement expression to human activity and suggest a limitation of plastic responses under high human pressure, despite the species also occurring in human-dominated landscapes. Our work represents the first comparison of metric-based movement expression across widely distributed populations of a deer genus, contributing to the understanding and prediction of animals' responses to human activity.

Life course transitions and changes in network ties among younger and older adults.

Several theories of the life course highlight the importance of social connections and ties for coping with transitions that occur at different ages. Individuals rely on family, friends, and colleagues to adapt to these transitions which may in turn change the composition of their networks. Yet, little is known about the association between life cycle transitions and changes in network characteristics. We used fixed effects regression models with three waves of egocentric network data from the UC Berkeley Social Network Study (UCNets) to examine how career- and family-related life cycle transitions during two key life stages-young adulthood and the transition from middle to old age-are associated with network turnover, the proportion of the network comprised of kin, and confidence in receiving support from personal networks. Younger adults experienced churn following a birth and marriage or partnership, while no life transition was associated with changes in proportion kin, and only with the birth of a child did confidence decline. Among older adults, no transition was associated with any measured event, suggesting that older adults maintain more stable relationships compared to young adults and can weather life events without significant disruptions to their networks.

Towards risk-based surveillance of African Swine Fever in Switzerland.

African Swine Fever (ASF) has emerged as a disease of great concern to swine producers and government disease control agencies because of its severe consequences to animal health and the pig industry. Early detection of an ASF introduction is considered essential for reducing the impact of the disease. Risk-based surveillance approaches have been used as enhancements to early disease epidemic detection systems in livestock populations. Such approaches may consider the role wildlife plays in hosting and transmitting a disease. In this study, a method is presented to estimate and map the risk of introducing ASF into the domestic pig population through wild boar intermediate hosts. It makes use of data about hunted wild boar, rest areas along motorways connecting ASF affected countries to Switzerland, outdoor piggeries, and forest cover. These data were used to compute relative wild boar abundance as well as to estimate the risk of both disease introduction into the wild boar population and disease transmission to domestic pigs. The way relative wild boar abundance was calculated adds to the current state of the art by considering the effect of beech mast on hunting success and the probability of wild boar occurrence when distributing relative abundance values among individual grid cells. The risk of ASF introduction into the domestic pig population by wild boar was highest near the borders of France, Germany, and Italy. On the north side of the Alps, areas of high risk were located on the unshielded side of the main motorway crossing the Central Plateau, which acts as a barrier for wild boar. Estimating the risk of disease introduction into the domestic pig population without the intermediary of wild boar suggested that dispersing wild boar may play a key role in spreading the risk to areas remote from motorways. The results of this study can be used to focus surveillance efforts for early disease detection on high risk areas. The developed method may also inform policies to control other diseases that are transmitted by a direct contact from wild boar to domestic pigs.

How New is "New"? Who Gets Added in a Panel Study of Personal Networks?

Using longitudinal data from UCNets, we examined newly-listed alters and distinguished between truly new ties who were recently met (typically coworkers and acquaintances) and awakened ties who were previously known to ego (typically extended kin and friends). Half of the newly-listed ties among the younger respondents were truly new, whereas two-thirds among the older respondents were awakened. In both groups, however, most alters were previously listed. These ties mainly included kin, confidants, and advisors, suggesting stability in the network core. Methodological implications for the name-generating process and substantive implications for the understanding of network dynamics and structure are discussed.

Causal Relationships between Personal Networks and Health: A Comparison of Three Modeling Strategies.

Prior research documents associations between personal network characteristics and health, but establishing causation has been a long-standing research priority. To evaluate approaches to causal inference in egocentric network data, this article uses three waves from the University of California Berkeley Social Networks Study (N = 1,159) to investigate connections between nine network variables and two global health outcomes. We compare three modeling strategies: cross-sectional ordinary least squares regression, regression with lagged dependent variables (LDVs), and hybrid fixed and random effects models. Results suggest that cross-sectional and LDV models may overestimate the causal effects of networks on health because hybrid models show that network-health associations operate primarily between individuals, as opposed to network changes causing within-individual changes in health. These findings demonstrate uses of panel data that may advance scholarship on networks and health and suggest that causal effects of network support on health may be more limited than previously thought.

Semi-quantitative risk assessment by expert elicitation of potential introduction routes of African swine fever from wild reservoir to domestic pig industry and subsequent spread during the Belgian outbreak (2018-2019).

Since the introduction in Georgia in 2007 of an African swine fever (ASF) genotype 2 virus strain, the virus has rapidly spread to both Western European and Asian countries. It now constitutes a major threat for the global swine industry. The ongoing European transmission cycle has been related to the 'wild boar habitat' with closed transmission events between wild boar populations and incidental spillovers to commercial and non-commercial (backyard) pig holdings. During the epidemic in Belgium, only wild boar were infected and although the introduction route has not yet been elucidated, the 'human factor' is highly suspected. While ASF was successfully contained in a small region in the Southern part of Belgium without affecting domestic pigs, the risk of spillover at the wild/domestic interface remains poorly assessed. In this study, we used a semi-quantitative method, involving national and international experts, to assess the risk associated with different transmission routes for ASF introduction from wild boar to domestic pig holdings and subsequent dissemination between holdings in the Belgian epidemiological context. Qualitative responses obtained by our questionnaire were numerically transformed and statistically processed to provide a semi-quantitative assessment of the occurrence of the hazard and a ranking of all transmission routes. 'Farmer', 'bedding material', 'veterinarian' and 'professionals from the pig sector' were considered as the most important transmission routes for ASF introduction from the wild reservoir to pig holdings. 'Animal movements', 'farmer', 'veterinarian', 'iatrogenic', 'animal transport truck' and 'animal care equipment' were considered as the most important transmission routes posing a risk of ASF spread between pig holdings. Combined with specific biosecurity checks in the holdings, this assessment helps in prioritizing risk mitigation measures against ASF introduction and further spread in the domestic pig industry, particularly while the ASF situation in Western Europe is worsening.

Who is Dropped and Why? Methodological and Substantive Accounts for Network Loss.

High rates of egocentric network turnover are frequently observed but not well explained. About 1,000 respondents to the UCNets survey named an average of 10 names in each of two waves a year apart. Consistent with prior studies, respondents in wave 2 failed to relist about half of the names they provided in wave 1. Asked why, respondents explained that they had forgotten the alter for about 40 percent of the missing names. Other common answers, such as no "occasion... to be in touch," also suggest that the true rate of alters being dropped is probably under 20 percent. Multilevel logit models identified the predictors of alters being dropped (neither relisted nor forgotten) versus retained. Immediate kin were likeliest to be retained and roommates, coworkers, and acquaintances to be dropped. Alters who provided companionship, confiding, advice, and emergency help were especially likely to be retained, as were those to whom respondents felt close. Little about the respondents themselves affected drop rates: having moved recently, having a close friend die, or having had an important relationship break up. Results are consistent with the argument that a tie's degree of constraint (notably being close family) and its balance of rewards determine the likelihood of it being dropped or demoted.

Assessment of the impact of forestry and leisure activities on wild boar spatial disturbance with a potential application to ASF risk of spread.

In Europe, African swine fever virus (ASFV) is one of the most threatening infectious transboundary diseases of domestic pigs and wild boar. In September 2018, ASF was detected in wild boar in the South of Belgium. France, as a bordering country, is extremely concerned about the ASF situation in Belgium, and an active preparedness is ongoing in the country. One of the questions raised by this situation relates to disturbing activities that may affect wild boar movements and their possible impact on the spread of ASFV. Despite evidence of disturbance related to hunting practices, there is a paucity of information on the impact of forestry and human leisure activities. To assess this impact on wild boar movements, a systematic review was first conducted but very few useful data were obtained. For this reason, an expert elicitation was carried out by the French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health & Safety in order to deal with this knowledge gap. A total of 30 experts originating from France and adjacent neighbouring countries (Spain, Belgium and Switzerland) were elicited about the relative importance of six factors of spatial disturbance of wild boar (noise, smell, invasion of space, modification of the environment, duration and frequency of the activity). Then, for each factor of disturbance, they were asked about the impact of 16 different commercial forestry and human leisure activities. A global weighted score was estimated in order to capture the variability of a wide range of territorial conditions and the uncertainty of expert elicitation. This estimate permitted ranking all 16 activities and aggregating them in three groups according to their potential for disturbance of wild boar, using a regression tree analysis. The results of this expert elicitation provide a methodological approach that may be useful for French and other European decision makers and stakeholders involved in the crisis management of ASF.

Mode and Interviewer Effects in Egocentric Network Research.

Surveys of egocentric networks are especially vulnerable to methods effects. This study combines a true experiment-random assignment of respondents to receive essentially identical questions from either an in-person interviewer or an online survey--with audio recordings of the in-person interviews. We asked over 850 respondents from a general population several different name-eliciting questions. Face-to-face interviews yielded more cooperation and higher quality data but fewer names than did the web surveys. Exploring several explanations, we determine that interviewer differences account for the mode difference: Interviewers who consistently prompted respondents elicited as many alters as did the web survey and substantially more than did less active interviewers. Although both methods effects substantially influenced the volume of alters listed, they did not substantially modify associations of other variables with volume.

Paediatric oropharyngeal tularaemia requiring surgical intervention.

Tularaemia is a rare infectious disease endemic in most European countries caused by the bacterium Francisella tularensis 1 Patients often show acute non-specific symptoms, which causes a delay in diagnosis and proper treatment, potentially resulting in significant morbidities such as deep neck abscess, meningitis, endocarditis and septic shock. The authors present a case of a 5-year old boy with a 4-day history of fever, sore throat and painful cervical lymphadenopathy, whose clinical progression worsened despite being treated with recommended antibiotics as per WHO guidelines once the diagnosis of Tularaemia was confirmed by serologic tests. He developed a parapharyngeal abscess and a persistent left necrotic cervical lymph node, which both were surgically drained and excised, respectively, and an extended course of antibiotic was given. Subsequently, the patient fully recovered from the illness and the follow-up was negative for relapse.

Difficult People: Who Is Perceived to Be Demanding in Personal Networks and Why Are They There?

Why do people maintain ties with individuals whom they find difficult? Standard network theories imply that such alters are avoided or dropped. Drawing on a survey of over 1,100 diverse respondents who described over 12,000 relationships, we examined which among those ties respondents nominated as a person whom they "sometimes find demanding or difficult." Those so listed composed about 15 percent of all alters in the network. After holding ego and alter traits constant, close kin, especially women relatives and aging parents, were especially likely to be named as difficult alters. Non-kin described as friends were less, and those described as co-workers more, likely to be listed only as difficult alters. These results suggest that normative and institutional constraints may force people to retain difficult and demanding alters in their networks. We also found that providing support to alters, but not receiving support from those alters, was a major source of difficulty in these relationships. Furthermore, the felt burden of providing support was not attenuated by receiving assistance, suggesting that alters involved in reciprocated exchanges were not less often labeled difficult than were those in unreciprocated ones. This study underlines the importance of constraints in personal networks.

Common drivers of seasonal movements on the migration - residency behavior continuum in a large herbivore.

This study aimed to (1) identify the scale of environmental drivers of seasonal movements on the migration - residency behavior continuum in a large herbivore species and to (2) test the hypothesis that the same environmental drivers and spatio-temporal scaling should influence spatial processes in both migrants (long distance migration) and residents (short distance range shifts). We performed a comparative analysis of the influence of plant phenology and snow cover duration on seasonal movements of five partially migrating red deer populations with contrasting environmental conditions, at the seasonal range scale and at the study area scale. The five populations presented varying proportions of migrants, large gradients of migration distances and seasonal range shifts. The probability for a red deer to migrate was strongly influenced by large-scale environmental conditions, consistent with the resource heterogeneity hypothesis (high spatio-temporal scaling favors migration). Distances moved by both migrants and residents were strongly related to large-scale environmental conditions as well. We showed that similar proximal causes influenced these seasonal movements, reinforcing the idea of a continuum from migration to residency in response to seasonal environmental changes. Together, our findings suggest that global warming, by homogenizing large-scale environmental conditions, may thus decrease migratory tactics.

Changes in support networks in late middle age: the extension of gender and educational differences.

OBJECTIVES: This paper tests whether differences by gender and by educational attainment in contact with friends and family and in support expected from friends and family narrow or widen in late middle age. METHODS: The data are drawn from about 4,800 members of the Wisconsin Longitudinal Survey who answered questions about their frequency of contact with social ties and expectations of 3 kinds of help in both 1993, when they were in their early 50s, and again in 2004. RESULTS: Using lagged dependent variable models, we find that between their 50s and 60s women's network advantages over men and college graduates' network advantages over high school graduates in frequency of social contact widened. The same was roughly true as well for expectations of social support, although here the divergences depended partly on the type of the support: Women gained relative to men in "talk" support and in help from nonkin if ill, but lost ground in financial support. The college-educated gained ground in all sorts of support from nonkin. DISCUSSION: These results reinforce concern that late middle age is a period when men and the less educated become yet more disadvantaged in social support, making attention to connectedness yet more critical.

Results of concurrent radio-chemotherapy for the treatment of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma in everyday clinical practice with special reference to early mortality.

BACKGROUND: Randomized controlled trials have established concurrent chemo-radiotherapy as the preferred treatment option for inoperable local-regionally advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinomas (HNSCCs). Because many patients have multiple co-morbidities and would not fulfill the eligibility criteria of clinical trials, the results need to be re-evaluated in daily clinical practice with special reference to early mortality. METHODS: 167 consecutive patients with HNSCC who received concurrent chemo-radiotherapy at the Basel University Hospital between 1988 and 2006 were analyzed retrospectively with a special focus on early deaths and risk factors for an unfavorable outcome. RESULTS: In our cohort, the 3- and 5-year overall survival rates were 54% and 47%, respectively. The therapy was associated with relevant toxicity and an early mortality rate of 5.4%. Patients dying early were analyzed individually for the cause of death. Patients with elevated white blood cell counts (HR: 2.66 p=0,016) and vascular co-morbidities (HR: 5.3, p=0,047) showed significantly worse survival rates. The same factors were associated with a trend toward increased treatment-related mortality. The 3-year survival rate improved from approximately 43% for patients treated before the year 2000 to 65% for patients treated after the year 2000 (Fisher's exact test p=0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Although many patients who received concurrent chemo-radiotherapy would not have qualified for clinical trials, the outcome was favorable and has significantly improved in recent years. However the early mortality was slightly worse than what is described in the literature.

Analysis of the EGFR mutation status in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma before treatment with Gefitinib.

BACKGROUND: The efficacy of chemotherapy in metastatic and recurrent squamous cell carcinomas of the head and neck (HNSCC) remains unsatisfactory. Gefitinib offers a new therapeutic option with comparable results and better tolerability than chemotherapy. We conducted this study to see if mutations in the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) might predict the therapeutic benefit in HNSCC patients. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In a pilot trial, 8 patients with metastatic or recurrent HNSCC were treated palliatively with gefitinib (500 mg/day orally). Forceps biopsies were taken to confirm tumor recurrence and to perform an EGFR mutation analysis. RESULTS: The EGFR status could be determined in 6 of the 8 patients. 5 patients had no EGFR gene mutation, and 1 patient showed a silent guanine-to-adenosine mutation in position 2607. Even without any relevant mutation in the EGFR, we observed partial remission in 3 of 6 patients treated with gefitinib. We also observed that an additional 4 patients had stable disease for at least 10 weeks. The median progression-free survival was 6.25 months, and the median overall survival was 7.39 months. CONCLUSION: In HNSCC, there are tumor responses to gefitinib without protein-altering mutations in the EGFR gene.

The clinical impact of p16 status in fine-needle aspirates of cervical lymph node metastasis of head and neck squamous cell carcinomas.

Lymph node involvement is prognostically the most determinant clinical factor for patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinomas (HNSCCs). Ultrasound of the neck and fine-needle aspiration (FNA) cytology is one of the first diagnostic procedures and the most accurate diagnostic staging tool for the neck. Patients with HPV-positive oropharyngeal carcinomas (OPSCC) show a significantly better prognosis when compared with HPV-negative OPSCC. P16 overexpression is accepted as surrogate marker for HPV-positive in OPSCC. These HPV/p16-positive OPSCC are localized either in the palatal tonsils or the base of tongue and frequently present with lymph node metastases. We analyzed the correlation and reliability of p16 expression of the FNA of the lymph node metastasis with the immunohistochemical expression of p16 of the same lymph node metastasis and its corresponding primary tumor, as it could be of importance for determining the localization and different prognosis of the primary tumor. 54 HNSCC patients were evaluated, p16 expression of the primary tumors and their lymph node metastases correlated precisely. In 25 of the 54 HNSCC patients, a FNA of the lymph node metastases was taken before the treatment. The positive cytological and immunohistochemical p16 staining correlated exactly. Of the 17 histologically p16-negative lymph node metastases 15 FNA were p16-negative, whereas two samples were p16-positive. In our view, a cytological p16 analysis of cervical lymph node metastasis can facilitate the correct localization of the primary tumor and discriminate reliably HPV-positive OPSCC from HPV-negative HNSCC with their significantly diverse prognosis.

Enhanced expression of ANO1 in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma causes cell migration and correlates with poor prognosis.

Head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) has the potential for early metastasis and is associated with poor survival. Ano1 (Dog1) is an established and sensitive marker for the diagnosis of gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST) and has recently been identified as a Ca(2+) activated Cl(-) channel. Although the ANO1 gene is located on the 11q13 locus, a region which is known to be amplified in different types of human carcinomas, a detailed analysis of Ano1 amplification and expression in HNSCC has not been performed. It is thus still unclear how Ano1 contributes to malignancy in HNSCC. We analyzed genomic amplification of the 11q13 locus and Ano1 together with Ano1-protein expression in a large collection of HNSCC samples. We detected a highly significant correlation between amplification and expression of Ano1 and showed that HNSCC patients with Ano1 protein expression have a poor overall survival. We further analyzed the expression of the Ano1 protein in more than 4'000 human samples from 80 different tumor types and 76 normal tissue types and detected that besides HNSCC and GISTs, Ano1 was rarely expressed in other tumor samples or healthy human tissues. In HNSCC cell lines, expression of Ano1 caused Ca(2+) activated Cl(-) currents, which induced cell motility and cell migration in wound healing and in real time migration assays, respectively. In contrast, knockdown of Ano1 did not affect intracellular Ca(2+) signaling and surprisingly did not reduce cell proliferation in BHY cells. Further, expression and activity of Ano1 strongly correlated with the ability of HNSCC cells to regulate their volume. Thus, poor survival in HNSCC patients is correlated with the presence of Ano1. Our results further suggest that Ano1 facilitates regulation of the cell volume and causes cell migration, which both can contribute to metastatic progression in HNSCC.