Minimal Residual Disease Detection using a Plasma-only Circulating Tumor DNA Assay in Patients with Colorectal Cancer.

PURPOSE: Detection of persistent circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) after curative-intent surgery can identify patients with minimal residual disease (MRD) who will ultimately recur. Most ctDNA MRD assays require tumor sequencing to identify tumor-derived mutations to facilitate ctDNA detection, requiring tumor and blood. We evaluated a plasma-only ctDNA assay integrating genomic and epigenomic cancer signatures to enable tumor-uninformed MRD detection. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: A total of 252 prospective serial plasma specimens from 103 patients with colorectal cancer undergoing curative-intent surgery were analyzed and correlated with recurrence. RESULTS: Of 103 patients, 84 [stage I (9.5%), II (23.8%), III (47.6%), IV (19%)] had evaluable plasma drawn after completion of definitive therapy, defined as surgery only (n = 39) or completion of adjuvant therapy (n = 45). In "landmark" plasma drawn 1-month (median, 31.5 days) after definitive therapy and >1 year follow-up, 15 patients had detectable ctDNA, and all 15 recurred [positive predictive value (PPV), 100%; HR, 11.28 (P < 0.0001)]. Of 49 patients without detectable ctDNA at the landmark timepoint, 12 (24.5%) recurred. Landmark recurrence sensitivity and specificity were 55.6% and 100%. Incorporating serial longitudinal and surveillance (drawn within 4 months of recurrence) samples, sensitivity improved to 69% and 91%. Integrating epigenomic signatures increased sensitivity by 25%-36% versus genomic alterations alone. Notably, standard serum carcinoembryonic antigen levels did not predict recurrence [HR, 1.84 (P = 0.18); PPV = 53.9%]. CONCLUSIONS: Plasma-only MRD detection demonstrated favorable sensitivity and specificity for recurrence, comparable with tumor-informed approaches. Integrating analysis of epigenomic and genomic alterations enhanced sensitivity. These findings support the potential clinical utility of plasma-only ctDNA MRD detection.See related commentary by Bent and Kopetz, p. 5449.

Muscle Loss Is Associated with Overall Survival in Patients with Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Independent of Tumor Mutational Status and Weight Loss.

BACKGROUND: Survival in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) has been associated with tumor mutational status, muscle loss, and weight loss. We sought to explore the combined effects of these variables on overall survival. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We performed an observational cohort study, prospectively enrolling patients receiving chemotherapy for mCRC. We retrospectively assessed changes in muscle (using computed tomography) and weight, each dichotomized as >5% or ≤5% loss, at 3, 6, and 12 months after diagnosis of mCRC. We used regression models to assess relationships between tumor mutational status, muscle loss, weight loss, and overall survival. Additionally, we evaluated associations between muscle loss, weight loss, and tumor mutational status. RESULTS: We included 226 patients (mean age 59 ± 13 years, 53% male). Tumor mutational status included 44% wild type, 42% RAS-mutant, and 14% BRAF-mutant. Patients with >5% muscle loss at 3 and 12 months experienced worse survival controlling for mutational status and weight (3 months hazard ratio, 2.66; p < .001; 12 months hazard ratio, 2.10; p = .031). We found an association of >5% muscle loss with BRAF-mutational status at 6 and 12 months. Weight loss was not associated with survival nor mutational status. CONCLUSION: Increased muscle loss at 3 and 12 months may identify patients with mCRC at risk for decreased overall survival, independent of tumor mutational status. Specifically, >5% muscle loss identifies patients within each category of tumor mutational status with decreased overall survival in our sample. Our findings suggest that quantifying muscle loss on serial computed tomography scans may refine survival estimates in patients with mCRC. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: In this study of 226 patients with metastatic colorectal cancer, it was found that losing >5% skeletal muscle at 3 and 12 months after the diagnosis of metastatic disease was associated with worse overall survival, independent of tumor mutational status and weight loss. Interestingly, results did not show a significant association between weight loss and overall survival. These findings suggest that muscle quantification on serial computed tomography may refine survival estimates in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer beyond mutational status.

Associations of baseline patient-reported outcomes with treatment outcomes in advanced gastrointestinal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Patient-reported outcomes (PROs) assessing quality of life (QOL) and symptom burden correlate with clinical outcomes in patients with cancer. However, to the authors' knowledge, data regarding associations between PROs and treatment response are lacking. METHODS: The authors prospectively approached consecutive patients with advanced gastrointestinal cancer who were initiating a new treatment. Prior to treatment, patients reported their QOL (Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-General [FACT-G], 4 subscales: Functional, Physical, Emotional, Social; higher scores indicate better QOL) and symptom burden (Edmonton Symptom Assessment System [ESAS], Patient Health Questionnaire-4 [PHQ-4]; higher scores represent greater symptoms). Regression models were used to examine associations of baseline PROs with treatment response (clinical benefit or progressive disease [PD] at time of first scan), healthcare utilization, and survival. RESULTS: From May 2019 to April 2020, a total of 112 patients with advanced gastrointestinal cancer were enrolled. For treatment response, 64.3% had CB and 35.7% had PD. Higher baseline ESAS-Physical (odds ratio, 1.04; P = .027) and lower FACT-G Functional (odds ratio, 0.92; P = .038) scores were associated with PD. Higher ESAS-Physical (hazard ratio [HR], 1.03; P = .044) and lower FACT-G Total (HR, 0.96; P = .005), FACT-G Physical (HR, 0.89; P < .001), and FACT-G Functional (HR, 0.87; P < .001) scores were associated with a greater hospitalization risk. Lower FACT-G Total (HR, 0.96; P = .009) and FACT-G Emotional (HR, 0.86; P = .012) scores as well as higher ESAS-Total (HR, 1.03; P = .014) and ESAS-Physical (HR, 1.04; P = .032) scores were associated with worse survival. CONCLUSIONS: Baseline PROs are associated with treatment response in patients with advanced gastrointestinal cancer, namely physical symptoms and functional QOL, in addition to health care use and survival. The findings of the current study support the association between PROs and important clinical outcomes, including the novel finding of treatment response.

Serial ctDNA Monitoring to Predict Response to Systemic Therapy in Metastatic Gastrointestinal Cancers.

PURPOSE: ctDNA offers a promising, noninvasive approach to monitor therapeutic efficacy in real-time. We explored whether the quantitative percent change in ctDNA early after therapy initiation can predict treatment response and progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with metastatic gastrointestinal cancer. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: A total of 138 patients with metastatic gastrointestinal cancers and tumor profiling by next-generation sequencing had serial blood draws pretreatment and at scheduled intervals during therapy. ctDNA was assessed using individualized droplet digital PCR measuring the mutant allele fraction in plasma of mutations identified in tumor biopsies. ctDNA changes were correlated with tumor markers and radiographic response. RESULTS: A total of 138 patients enrolled. A total of 101 patients were evaluable for ctDNA and 68 for tumor markers at 4 weeks. Percent change of ctDNA by 4 weeks predicted partial response (PR, P < 0.0001) and clinical benefit [CB: PR and stable disease (SD), P < 0.0001]. ctDNA decreased by 98% (median) and >30% for all PR patients. ctDNA change at 8 weeks, but not 2 weeks, also predicted CB (P < 0.0001). Four-week change in tumor markers also predicted response (P = 0.0026) and CB (P = 0.022). However, at a clinically relevant specificity threshold of 90%, 4-week ctDNA change more effectively predicted CB versus tumor markers, with a sensitivity of 60% versus 24%, respectively (P = 0.0109). Patients whose 4-week ctDNA decreased beyond this threshold (≥30% decrease) had a median PFS of 175 days versus 59.5 days (HR, 3.29; 95% CI, 1.55-7.00; P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Serial ctDNA monitoring may provide early indication of response to systemic therapy in patients with metastatic gastrointestinal cancer prior to radiographic assessments and may outperform standard tumor markers, warranting further evaluation.