The costs of an expanded screening criteria for COVID-19: A modelling study.

OBJECTIVES: Nosocomial infection is an ongoing concern in the COVID-19 outbreak. The effective screening of suspected cases in the healthcare setting is therefore necessary, enabling the early identification and prompt isolation of cases for epidemic containment. We aimed to assess the cost and health outcomes of an extended screening strategy, implemented in Singapore on 07 February 2020, which maximizes case identification in the public healthcare system. METHODS: We explored the effects of the expanded screening criteria which allow clinicians to isolate and investigate patients presenting with undifferentiated fever or respiratory symptoms or chest x-ray abnormalities. We formulated a cost appraisal framework which evaluated the treatment costs averted from the prevention of secondary transmission in the hospital setting, as determined by a branching process infection model, and compared these to the costs of the additional testing required to meet the criteria. RESULTS: In the base case analysis, an R0 of 2.5 and incubation period of 4 days, an estimated 239 (95% CI: 201-287) cases could be averted over 150 days within the hospital setting through ESC. A corresponding $2.36 (2-2.85) million USD in costs could be averted with net cost savings of $124,000 (95% CI: -334,000 to 516,000). In the sensitivity analyses, when positive identification rates (PIR) were above 7%, regardless of R0 and incubation period, all scenarios were cost-saving. CONCLUSION: The expanded screening criteria can help to identify and promptly isolate positive COVID cases in a cost-saving manner or within acceptable cost margins where the costs incurred from the testing of negative patients could be negated by the averted costs. Outbreak control must be sustainable and effective; the proposed screening criteria should be considered to mitigate nosocomial transmission risk within healthcare facilities.

Impact of inpatient Care in Emergency Department on outcomes: a quasi-experimental cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Hospitals around the world are faced with the issue of boarders in emergency department (ED), patients marked for admission but with no available inpatient bed. Boarder status is known to be associated with delayed inpatient care and suboptimal outcomes. A new care delivery system was developed in our institution where boarders received full inpatient care from a designated medical team, acute medical team (AMT), while still residing at ED. The current study examines the impact of this AMT intervention on patient outcomes. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective quasi-experimental cohort study to analyze outcomes between the AMT intervention and conventional care in a 1250-bed acute care tertiary academic hospital in Singapore. Study participants included patients who received care from the AMT, a matched cohort of patients admitted directly to inpatient wards (non-AMT) and a sample of patients prior to the intervention (pre-AMT group). Primary outcomes were length of hospital stay (LOS), early discharges (within 24 h) and bed placement. Secondary outcomes included unplanned readmissions within 3 months, and patient's bill size. χ2- and Mann-Whitney U tests were used to test for differences between the cohorts on dichotomous and continuous variables respectively. RESULTS: The sample comprised of 2279 patients (1092 in AMT, 1027 in non-AMT, and 160 in pre-AMT groups). Higher rates of early discharge (without significant differences in the readmission rates) and shorter LOS were noted for the AMT patients. They were also more likely to be admitted into a ward allocated to their discipline and had lower bill size compared to non AMT patients. CONCLUSIONS: The AMT intervention improved patient outcomes and resource utilization. This model was noted to be sustainable and provides a potential solution for hospitals' ED boarders who face a gap in inpatient care during their crucial first few hours of admissions while waiting for an inpatient bed.

Varicella seroprevalence in healthcare workers in a tertiary hospital: an audit of cross-sectional data.

BACKGROUND: The seroprevalence of varicella in Southeast Asia is not well described especially in healthcare workers (HCW) in the region. We report the varicella seroprevalence among healthcare workers from a diverse range of countries working in a tertiary care hospital in Singapore. METHODS: We audited the results of annual HCW health screening, which included a varicella assay, from the years 2009 to 2014. During this period, there was a change in hospital policy mandating varicella immunity for all newly employed healthcare workers. The serological data were reviewed with employment records on occupation and nationality. Seroprevalence rates were determined by standard commercial enzyme linked immunosorbent assays for each year of testing. Odds of being immune in 2014 were compared by means of multiple logistic regression. RESULTS: A total of 10,585 samples were obtained from 6668 unique individuals over four separate cross-sections of the hospital workforce. A peak seroprevalence of 92.8 % (95 % CI 92.0-93.5) was recorded in 2014. Younger employees had a lower seroprevalence than their older colleagues. In a consolidated sample of 4875 members of the active workforce in October 2014, we identified that Indian nationals were less likely to be immune than their Singaporean national colleagues, odds ratio (OR) 0.26 (95 % CI 0.17-0.43, p < 0.001), while Chinese nationals were more likely to be immune, OR 4.34 (95 % CI 1.61-12.2, p = 0.004), after controlling for year of screening, gender, age-group and vocation. In 2014, being employed as administrative staff, OR 0.43 (95 % CI 0.29-0.64, p < 0.001) or contract service provider, OR 0.30 (95 % CI 0.19-0.47, p < 0.001), was also associated with a lower odds of being immune than being employed as a nurse. CONCLUSIONS: There remain a small number of healthcare workers who are non-immune to varicella in our tertiary hospital. A new pre-employment policy of mandatory screening and vaccination may have increased rates of immunity but more needs to be done to ensure that all of our employees are immune to varicella to protect our vulnerable patients.

Vancomycin-resistant Enterococci in Singaporean hospitals: 5-year results of a multi-centre surveillance programme.

INTRODUCTION: Vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE) have emerged as one of the major nosocomial antimicrobial-resistant pathogens globally. In this article, we describe the epidemiology of VRE in Singaporean public hospitals in the 5 years following the major local VRE outbreak in 2005. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A passive laboratory surveillance programme identified non-duplicate VRE isolates from 7 hospitals from 2006 to 2010. Descriptive statistics and time-series analysis was performed on all clinical VRE isolates for each individual hospital as well as for the combined dataset. RESULTS: There were a total of 418 VRE isolates over 5 years, of which 102 isolates (24.4%) were from clinical cultures. Between 0.4% and 0.7% of all clinical enterococcal isolates were resistant to vancomycin. The overall incidence-density of VRE did not change over time in Singapore despite 2 separate outbreaks in tertiary hospitals in 2009 and 2010. Incidence-density of clinical VRE cases fell in 2 secondary hospitals, while another 2 hospitals experienced no significant VRE infections after 2008. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of VRE clinical isolates remains low in Singaporean public sector hospitals. However, the presence of at least 2 outbreaks in separate hospitals over the past 5 years indicates the need for continued vigilance in order to prevent any further increase in VRE prevalence locally.

Surveillance and correlation of antibiotic prescription and resistance of Gram-negative bacteria in Singaporean hospitals.

A surveillance study was performed in four Singapore public hospitals from 2006 to 2008 to determine the correlation between antibiotic prescription and Gram-negative bacterial antimicrobial resistance. Targeted organisms included ceftriaxone- and ciprofloxacin-resistant Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae, as well as imipenem-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Acinetobacter spp. Antibiotic prescription data were collated in the WHO anatomical therapeutic chemical (ATC)/defined daily dose (DDD) format, while antibiotic resistance was expressed as incidence density adjusted for total inpatient-days every quarter. Individual trends were determined by linear regression, while possible associations between antibiotic prescription and resistance were evaluated via cross-correlation analysis. Results over 3 years indicated significantly rising incidence densities of ceftriaxone- and ciprofloxacin-resistant E. coli and imipenem-resistant Acinetobacter spp. (blood isolates only). Antimicrobial-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae rates declined. The prescription rates of piperacillin-tazobactam, ertapenem, meropenem, ciprofloxacin, and levofloxacin increased significantly, while imipenem and moxifloxacin prescription decreased. Cross-correlation analysis demonstrated possible associations between prescription of fluoroquinolones and ciprofloxacin-resistant E. coli (R(2) = 0.46), fluoroquinolones and ceftriaxone-resistant E. coli (R(2) = 0.47), and carbapenems and imipenem-resistant Acinetobacter spp. (R(2) = 0.48), all at zero time lag. Changes in meropenem prescription were associated with a similar trend in imipenem-resistant Acinetobacter blood isolates after a 3-month time lag. No correlation was found between cephalosporin use and resistance. In conclusion, our data demonstrated correlation between prescription of and Gram-negative bacterial resistance to several, but not all, key antimicrobial agents in Singapore hospitals. In areas where Gram-negative bacterial resistance is endemic and prescription of broad-spectrum antimicrobial agents is high, factors other than antimicrobial usage may be equally important in maintaining high resistance rates.

Evolving EMRSA-15 epidemic in Singapore hospitals.

The aim of this study was to determine the extent of EMRSA-15 spread in hospitals in Singapore. Molecular analysis of 197 non-duplicate meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) isolates collected from five acute care public hospitals in Singapore in May 2005 revealed that 66 (33.5%) were EMRSA-15 while 121 (61.4%) belonged to the endemic multidrug-resistant ST239 clone. Median and mode vancomycin MIC for both major clones of health-care-associated MRSA were relatively high at 2.0 microg ml-1. Subsequent laboratory surveillance data collected from the first half of 2006 confirmed increasing numbers of the EMRSA-15 clone--ranging from 25.0 to 66.1% of all MRSA isolated in local hospitals--replacing the ST239 clone island-wide.