Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Sodium as a Predictor of Surgical Risk in Cirrhotic Patients With Ascites.

BACKGROUND: The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Sodium (MELD-Na) incorporates hyponatremia into the MELD score and has been shown to correlate with surgical outcomes. The pathophysiology of hyponatremia parallels that of ascites, which purports greater surgical risk. This study investigates whether MELD-Na accurately predicts morbidity and mortality in patients with ascites undergoing general surgery procedures. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We used the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database (2005-2014) to examine the adjusted risk of morbidity and mortality of cirrhotic patients with and without ascites undergoing inguinal or ventral hernia repair, cholecystectomy, and lysis of adhesions for bowel obstruction. Patients were stratified by the MELD-Na score and ascites. Outcomes were compared between patients with and without ascites for each stratum using low MELD-Na and no ascites group as a reference. RESULTS: A total of 30,391 patients were analyzed. Within each MELD-Na stratum, patients with ascites had an increased risk of complications compared with the reference group (low MELD-Na and no ascites): low MELD-Na with ascites odds ratio (OR) 4.33 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.96-9.59), moderate MELD-Na no ascites OR 1.70 (95% CI 1.52-1.9), moderate MELD-Na with ascites OR 3.69 (95% CI 2.49-5.46), high MELD-Na no ascites OR 3.51 (95% CI 3.07-4.01), and high MELD-Na ascites OR 7.18 (95% CI 5.33-9.67). Similarly, mortality risk was increased in patients with ascites compared with the reference: moderate MELD-Na no ascites OR 3.55 (95% CI 2.22-5.67), moderate MELD-Na ascites OR 13.80 (95% CI 5.65-33.71), high MELD-Na no ascites OR 8.34 (95% CI 5.15-13.51), and high MELD-Na ascites OR 43.97 (95% CI 23.76-81.39). CONCLUSIONS: MELD-Na underestimates morbidity and mortality risk for general surgery patients with ascites.

A propensity score matched comparison of readmissions and cost of laparoscopic cholecystectomy vs percutaneous cholecystostomy for acute cholecystitis.

BACKGROUND: Percutaneous cholecystostomy (PC) is an initial alternative to laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC) for complicated acute cholecystitis (AC). No studies have directly compared costs of index hospitalization and readmissions between PC and LC patients. METHODS: The Nationwide Readmissions Database was queried for patients undergoing PC or LC for AC from 2013 through 2014. Primary outcomes including length of stay, and index and total hospital costs at 30- and 60-days were evaluated after 1:1 propensity score matching for patient and hospital characteristics. RESULTS: PC patients had increased index hospital length of stay: 6 days vs 5 days (p < 0.01). Index admission cost was cheaper for PC ($12,839 vs $13,345, p = 0.028). Total cost, including readmissions, was significantly increased in PC patients: 30-days (LC: $13,947, PC: $14,592, p = 0.029) and 60-days (LC: $14,280, PC: $16,518, p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: PC patients were more frequently readmitted, had longer hospital stays, and increased hospital costs compared to those undergoing LC.

Predictors of 30 Day Readmission Following Percutaneous Cholecystostomy.

BACKGROUND: High-risk patients undergoing cholecystectomy may experience increased morbidity and mortality. Percutaneous cholecystostomy (PC) has been utilized as a treatment option for acute cholecystitis in this cohort. Little is known about risk factors for readmission following PC. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients who had PC from 2013 to 2014 were identified from the National Readmission Database by the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project. A 30-d readmission was defined as a subsequent admission within 30 d following the first admission discharge date. Multivariate logistic regression models using stepwise selection were employed to select significant predictive variables for subsequent readmission. RESULTS: Three thousand three hundred sixty-eight patients were identified with 698 (20.7%) readmissions during the study period. Of the readmitted patients, 79 (2.35%) had two readmissions and six patients (0.19%) had three or more readmissions within 30 d of their index procedure. In addition, alcohol use (odds ratios [OR] 1.58, confidence intervals [CI] 1.10-2.29), uncomplicated diabetes (OR 1.21, CI 1.00-1.47), congestive heart failure (OR 1.28, CI 1.03-2.44), depression (OR 1.42, CI 1.08-1.86), and metastatic cancer (OR 1.65, CI 1.11-2.46) were significantly correlated with risk for readmission. Readmitted patients had longer hospital stays (OR 1.38 CI 1.09-1.74, length of stay >8 d). CONCLUSIONS: A significant proportion of patients are readmitted within 30 d following PC. These patients may benefit from increase care coordination starting at their index admission. Studies are needed to determine patient selection for upfront cholecystectomy.

Ascites: A marker for increased surgical risk unaccounted for by the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score for general surgical procedures.

BACKGROUND: Ascites and the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score have both been shown to independently correlate with surgical morbidity and mortality. We evaluated if incorporating the presence of ascites changed postoperative risk as assessed by the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score. METHODS: Data originated from the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database from 2005-2014. Patients undergoing hernia repair, adhesiolysis, and cholecystectomy were included. Univariate analysis and logistic regression stratified by Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score and presence of ascites was performed. RESULTS: A total of 30,391 patients were analyzed. When compared to low Model for End-Stage Liver Disease stratum without ascites, the presence of ascites predicted increased risk for complications (low Model for End-Stage Liver Disease with ascites odds ratio 3.22, 95% confidence interval [2.00-5.18], moderate Model for End-Stage Liver Disease with ascites odds ratio 3.70, 95% confidence interval [2.64-5.19], high Model for End-Stage Liver Disease with ascites odds ratio 6.38, 95% confidence interval [4.39-9.26]). These findings hold true for mortality as well (low Model for End-Stage Liver Disease with ascites odds ratio 9.40 95% confidence interval [3.53-25.01], moderate Model for End-Stage Liver Disease with ascites odds ratio 15.24 95% confidence interval [8.17-28.45], high Model for End-Stage Liver Disease with ascites odds ratio 28.56 95% confidence interval [15.43-52.88]). CONCLUSIONS: Ascites increased the risk of morbidity and mortality across multiple general surgery operations. Model for End-Stage Liver Disease may underestimate surgical risk in patients with ascites. Predictive models inclusive of ascites may more accurately predict the perioperative risk of these complex patients.

Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Underestimates Morbidity and Mortality in Patients with Ascites Undergoing Colectomy.

BACKGROUND: The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score and ascites correlate with surgical morbidity and mortality. However, the MELD score does not account for ascites. We sought to evaluate whether the MELD score accurately risk stratifies patients with ascites. METHODS: We analyzed the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (2005-2014) to examine the risk-adjusted morbidity and mortality of cirrhotic patients with and without ascites undergoing colectomy for diverticulitis. Patients were stratified by MELD score, and the presence of ascites and outcomes were compared between patients with and without ascites to the reference group of low MELD and no ascites. Multivariable logistic regression was used to control for demographic factors and comorbidities. RESULTS: A total of 16,877 colectomies were analyzed. For each MELD stratum, patients with ascites have increased risk of complications compared to those without ascites (P < 0.05 unless indicated): low MELD ascites OR 1.13, P = 0.69, moderate MELD no ascites OR 1.37, moderate MELD ascites OR 2.06, high MELD no ascites OR 1.93, and high MELD ascites OR 3.54. These trends hold true for mortality: low MELD ascites OR 2.91, P = 0.063, moderate MELD no ascites OR 1.47, moderate MELD ascites OR 5.62, high MELD no ascites OR 3.04, and high MELD ascites OR 9.91. CONCLUSION: Ascites predicts an increased risk for postoperative morbidity and mortality for cirrhotic patients undergoing colectomy for all MELD classifications. These findings suggest that the MELD score significantly underestimates postoperative risk as it does not account for ascites.