Predictors of in-hospital mortality in patients with non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

OBJECTIVE: to determine the independent predictors of in-hospital death of Hispanic patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGB). EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: prospective and observational trial. PATIENTS: in a period between 2000 and 2009, all patients with NVUGB admitted to our hospital were studied. Demographical and clinical characteristics, endoscopic findings and laboratory tests were evaluated χ² and Mann-Whitney U analyses were per-formed for comparisons, and binary logistic regression was employed to identify independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: 1,067 patients were included, 65% male with a mean age of 58.8 years. Mean number of comorbidities per patient was 1.6 ± 0.76. The most frequent cause of bleeding were gastric and duodenal ulcers (55.4%); 278 patients (25.8%) received endoscopic treatment of which 69.1% had combined therapy. Rebleeding occurred in 36 patients (3.4%) of which 50% died. In-hospital mortality was 10.2%, of which only 3.1% was associated to bleeding. When comparing causes of death among patients with and without comorbidities, only hypovolemic shock was found significative (48.3 vs. 25%; p = 0.020). Binary logistic regression found that the number of comorbidities, Rockall scale score; serum albumin < 2.6 g/dL on admission; rebleeding and length of hospital stay were independent risk factors of in-hospital mortality. CONCLUSION: the number of comorbidities, the Rockall scales core, an albumin level < 2.6 g/dL, the presence of rebleeding and hospital stay were predictors of in-hospital mortality in patients with NVUGB.

Prevalence of minimal hepatic encephalopathy in cirrhotic patients.

Background. Minimal hepatic encephalopathy (MHE) has implications for health-related quality of life as well as for survival of cirrhotic patients, but a standardized diagnostic test is not available. Objective. To determine the prevalence of MHE among cirrhotic patients by using the psychometric hepatic encephalopathy score (PHES) system and the critical flicker frequency (CFF) test to diagnose MHE and to identify factors that influence the results of these tests. Material and methods. From April 2007 to March 2008, PHES and CFF tests were performed on patients with cirrhosis but no overt hepatic encephalopathy. Descriptive statistics were used to express the results and the Spearman correlation was used to evaluate CFF and PHES results according to age and education level. Results. We studied 104 patients. The prevalence of MHE was 55.8% (n = 58) based on a positive result for either the PHES or the CFF test, 32.7% (n = 34) based on positive PHES results alone, 34.6% (n = 36) based on positive CFF test results alone and 11.5% (n = 12) based on a positive result for both tests. According to PHES, the incidence of MHE was correlated with education level (r = 0.333, p = 0.001), but not with age. According to CFF, the incidence of MHE was correlated with age (r = -0.93, p = 0.049), but not with education level. Conclusion. The prevalence of MHE was similar to that previously reported. Patient literacy influences MHE diagnosis with PHES but not with CFF. CFF is a simple and feasible method that identifies patients with MHE who may benefit from treatment independently of their education level.

Model for end stage of liver disease (MELD) is better than the Child-Pugh score for predicting in-hospital mortality related to esophageal variceal bleeding.

AIM: The Child Pugh and MELD are good methods for predicting mortality in patients with chronic liver disease. We investigated their performance as risk factors for failure to control bleeding, in-hospital overall mortality and death related to esophageal variceal bleeding episodes. METHODS: From a previous collected database, 212 cirrhotic patients with variceal bleeding admitted to our hospital were studied. The predictive capability of Child Pugh and MELD scores were compared using c statistics. RESULTS: The Child-Pugh and MELD scores showed marginal capability for predicting failure to control bleeding (the area under receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) values were < 0.70 for both). The AUROC values for predicting in-hospital overall mortality of Child-Pugh and MELD score were similar: 0.809 (CI 95%, 0.710 - 0.907) and 0.88 (CI 95% 0.77- 0.99,) respectively. There was no significant difference between them (p > 0.05). The AUROC value of MELD for predicting mortality related to variceal bleeding was higher than the Child-Pugh score: 0.905 (CI 95% 0.801-1.00) vs 0.794 (CI 95% 0.676 - 0.913) respectively (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: MELD and Child-Pugh were not efficacious scores for predicting failure to control bleeding. The Child-Pugh and MELD scores had similar capability for predicting in-hospital overall mortality. Nevertheless, MELD was significantly better than Child-Pugh score for predicting in-hospital mortality related to variceal bleeding.