Individual and contextual risk factors for mortality in nursing home residents during the first wave of COVID-19 in France: a multilevel analysis of a nationwide cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Mortality amongst nursing home (NH) residents increased by 43% during the first wave of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We estimated the 'contextual effect' on mortality, tried to explain it by NH characteristics and identified resident- and NH-level risk factors for mortality. METHODS: The contextual effect was measured for two cohorts of NH residents managed by the general scheme in metropolitan France (RESIDESMS data from 03/01/2020 to 05/31/2020 and 03/01/2019 to 05/31/2019) by the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) estimated from mixed-effects logistic regression. RESULTS: Amongst 385,300 residents (5,339 NHs) included in 2020 (median age 89 years, 25% men), 9.1% died, versus 6.7% of 379,926 residents (5,270 NHs) in 2019. In the empty model, the ICC was 9.3% in 2020 and 1.5% in 2019. Only the geographic location partially explained the heterogeneity observed in 2020 (ICC: 6.5% after adjustment). Associations with mortality were stronger in 2020 than in 2019 for male sex and diabetes and weaker for heart disease, chronic respiratory disease and residence <6 months. Mortality was higher in 2020 (15.1%) than 2019 (6.3%) in NHs with at least one death with a mention of COVID-19 and more heterogeneous (ICC: 8.0%) than in the others (mortality: 6.7% in both years; ICC: 1.1%). CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that the COVID-19 crisis had a heterogeneous impact on mortality in NH residents and that geographic location explain a part of the contextual effect, which appears to have had little influence on mortality in NHs not being affected by the virus.

Magnitude, change over time, demographic characteristics and geographic distribution of excess deaths among nursing home residents during the first wave of COVID-19 in France: a nationwide cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The objectives were to assess the excess deaths among Nursing Home (NH) residents during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, to determine their part in the total excess deaths and whether there was a mortality displacement. METHODS: We studied a cohort of 494,753 adults in 6,515 NHs in France exposed to COVID-19 pandemic (from 1 March to 31 May 2020) and compared with the 2014-2019 cohorts using data from the French National Health Data System. The main outcome was death. Excess deaths and standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were estimated. RESULT: There were 13,505 excess deaths. Mortality increased by 43% (SMR: 1.43). The mortality excess was higher among males than females (SMR: 1.51 and 1.38) and decreased with increasing age (SMRs in females: 1.61 in the 60-74 age group, 1.58 for 75-84, 1.41 for 85-94 and 1.31 for 95 or over; males: SMRs: 1.59 for 60-74, 1.69 for 75-84, 1.47 for 85-94 and 1.41 for 95 or over). No mortality displacement effect was observed up until 30 August 2020. By extrapolating to all NH residents nationally (N = 570,003), we estimated that they accounted for 51% of the general population excess deaths (N = 15,114 out of 29,563). CONCLUSION: NH residents accounted for half of the total excess deaths in France during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. The excess death rate was higher among males than females and among younger than older residents.

The heterogeneous effect of retirement on informal care behavior.

It is often argued that the increased labor market participation of seniors threatens family support provided to dependent elderly people. The purpose of this paper is to assess the causal effect of retirement on the frequency of care provided by individuals aged 55-69 years to their elderly parent. Using data from the Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), we estimate an endogenous switching model that allows the retirement effect to be heterogeneous with respect to observed and unobserved characteristics. To tackle the possible endogeneity of selection into retirement, we use the heterogeneity of retirement rules between and within European countries. On average, being retired does not significantly impact the probability of providing care but significantly increases the frequency of care conditional on being caregiver. The same pattern is observed regardless of the individual observed characteristics, even if the provision of informal care appears to be less sensitive to the retirement status when the child cannot rely on the other parent to provide care or when both parents are in poor health. These results suggest that pension system reforms should not affect the number of caregivers. Some adverse effects on the intensity of involvement among caregivers are nevertheless expected.

Providing care for an elderly parent: interactions among siblings?

This article is focused on children providing and financing long-term care for their elderly parent. The aim of this work is to highlight the interactions that may take place among siblings when deciding whether or not to become a caregiver. We look at families with two children using data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe; our sample contains 314 dependent elderly and their 628 adult children. In order to identify the interactions between siblings, we have specified a two-person discrete game model. To estimate this model, without invoking the 'coherency' condition, we have added an endogenous selection rule to solve the incompleteness problem arising from multiplicity or absence of equilibrium. Our empirical results suggest that the three classical effects identified by Manski could potentially explain the observed correlation between the siblings' caregiving behaviour. Correlated effects alone appear to be weak. Contextual interactions and endogenous interactions reveal cross-effects. The asymmetric character of the endogenous interactions is our most striking result. The younger child's involvement appears to increase the net benefit of caregiving for the elder one, whereas the elder child's involvement decreases the net benefit of caregiving for the younger child.