Long-term colchicine for the prevention of vascular recurrent events in non-cardioembolic stroke (CONVINCE): a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Anti-inflammatory therapy with long-term colchicine prevented vascular recurrence in coronary disease. Unlike coronary disease, which is typically caused by atherosclerosis, ischaemic stroke is caused by diverse mechanisms including atherosclerosis and small vessel disease or is frequently due to an unknown cause. We aimed to investigate the hypothesis that long-term colchicine would reduce recurrent events after ischaemic stroke. METHODS: We did a randomised, parallel-group, open-label, blinded endpoint assessed trial comparing long-term colchicine (0·5 mg orally per day) plus guideline-based usual care with usual care only. Hospital-based patients with non-severe, non-cardioembolic ischaemic stroke or high-risk transient ischaemic attack were eligible. The primary endpoint was a composite of first fatal or non-fatal recurrent ischaemic stroke, myocardial infarction, cardiac arrest, or hospitalisation (defined as an admission to an inpatient unit or a visit to an emergency department that resulted in at least a 24 h stay [or a change in calendar date if the hospital admission or discharge times were not available]) for unstable angina. The p value for significance was 0·048 to adjust for two prespecified interim analyses conducted by the data monitoring committee, for which the steering committee and trial investigators remained blinded. The trial was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02898610) and is completed. FINDINGS: 3154 patients were randomly assigned between Dec 19, 2016, and Nov 21, 2022, with the last follow-up on Jan 31, 2024. The trial finished before the anticipated number of outcomes was accrued (367 outcomes planned) due to budget constraints attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic. Ten patients withdrew consent for analysis of their data, leaving 3144 patients in the intention-to-treat analysis: 1569 (colchicine and usual care) and 1575 (usual care alone). A primary endpoint occurred in 338 patients, 153 (9·8%) of 1569 patients allocated to colchicine and usual care and 185 (11·7%) of 1575 patients allocated to usual care alone (incidence rates 3·32 vs 3·92 per 100 person-years, hazard ratio 0·84; 95% CI 0·68-1·05, p=0·12). Although no between-group difference in C-reactive protein (CRP) was observed at baseline, patients treated with colchicine had lower CRP at 28 days and at 1, 2, and 3 years (p<0·05 for all timepoints). The rates of serious adverse events were similar in both groups. INTERPRETATION: Although no statistically significant benefit was observed on the primary intention-to-treat analysis, the findings provide new evidence supporting the rationale for anti-inflammatory therapy in further randomised trials. FUNDING: Health Research Board Ireland, Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (German Research Foundation), and Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek Vlaanderen (Research Foundation Flanders), Belgium.

Perspectives of People with Stroke, Caregivers and Healthcare Professionals on an Adaptive mHealth Intervention for Physical Activity in the Prevention of Secondary Stroke: A Qualitative Study.

Introduction: Engaging in regular physical activity (PA) is associated with lower mortality following stroke, and PA reduces the chance of recurrent stroke. Despite recent guidelines to optimise PA following stroke, people with stroke are known to be less active than their age-matched counterparts. Given the heterogenous nature of stroke, adaptive PA interventions are recommended for people with stroke. Empirical data is lacking on adaptive PA or behavioural change interventions following stroke. Suggested strategies in the prevention of stroke recommend the use of mobile health (mHealth) interventions in the primary prevention of stroke. A structured stakeholder consultation process is key to successful implementation of complex interventions. This paper reports the findings of our consultation process to inform the development of an adaptive mHealth PA. Methods: We used a qualitative study design to explore the perspectives of key stakeholders on the development of an adaptive PA intervention delivered via mHealth post-stroke. Healthcare workers, carers and people with stroke participated in semi-structured one-to-one or focus group interviews. A reflexive thematic analysis was undertaken on transcribed interviews; key themes and sub-themes were developed using coding and summarised by two researchers, then reviewed by the full research team. Results: Twenty-eight stakeholders were interviewed and three main themes were identified; Key feature of a mHealth intervention, delivering a mHealth intervention, Challenges to development and use. There was widespread agreement across stakeholder groups that an adaptive mHealth PA intervention following stroke would be beneficial to people with stroke, following discharge from acute care. Conclusion: Our consultation supports the development of an adaptive PA programme that addresses specific impairments that can hinder exercise participation after stroke.

Genetic Tracking of a Rabid Coyote (Canis latrans) Detected beyond a Rabies Enzootic Area in West Virginia, USA.

Wildlife translocation and cross-species transmission can impede control and elimination of emerging zoonotic diseases. Tracking the geographic origin of both host and virus (i.e., translocation versus local infection) may help determine the most effective response when high-risk cases of emerging pathogens are identified in wildlife. In May 2022, a coyote (Canis latrans) infected with the raccoon (Procyon lotor) rabies virus variant (RRV) was collected in Lewis County, West Virginia, USA, an area free from RRV. We applied host population genomics and RRV phylogenetic analyses to determine the most likely geographic origin of the rabid coyote. Coyote genomic analyses included animals from multiple eastern states bordering West Virginia, with the probable origin of the rabid coyote being the county of collection. The RRV phylogenetic analyses included cases detected from West Virginia and neighboring states, with most similar RRV sequences collected in a county 80 km to the northeast, within the oral rabies vaccination zone. The combined results suggest that the coyote was infected in an RRV management area and carried the RRV to Lewis County, a pattern consistent with coyote local movement ecology. Distant cross-species transmission and subsequent host movement presents a low risk for onward transmission in raccoon populations. This information helped with emergency response decision-making, thereby saving time and resources.

Individual patient data meta-analysis of the effects of fluoxetine on functional outcomes after acute stroke.

BACKGROUND: Three large randomized controlled trials of fluoxetine for stroke recovery have been performed. We performed an individual patient data meta-analysis (IPDM) on the combined data. METHODS: Fixed effects meta-analyses were performed on the combined data set, for the primary outcome (modified Rankin scale (mRS) at 6 months), and secondary outcomes common to the individual trials. As a sensitivity analysis, summary statistics from each trial were created and combined. FINDINGS: The three trials recruited a combined total of 5907 people (mean age 69.5 years (SD 12.3), 2256 (38%) females, 2-15 days post-stroke) from Australia, New Zealand, United Kingdom, Sweden, and Vietnam; and randomized them to fluoxetine 20 mg daily or matching placebo for 6 months. Data on 5833 (98.75%) were available at 6 months. The adjusted ordinal comparison of mRS was similar in the two groups (common OR 0.96, 95% CI 0.87 to 1.05, p = 0.37). There were no statistically significant interactions between the minimization variables (baseline probability of being alive and independent at 6 months, time to treatment, motor deficit, or aphasia) and pre-specified subgroups (including age, pathological type, inability to assess mood, proxy or patient consent, baseline depression, country). Fluoxetine increased seizure risk (2.64% vs 1.8%, p = 0.03), falls with injury (6.26% vs 4.51%, p = 0.03), fractures (3.15% vs 1.39%, p < 0.0001) and hyponatremia (1.22% vs 0.61%, p = 0.01) but reduced new depression (10.05% vs 13.42%, p < 0.0001). At 12 months, there was no difference in adjusted mRS (n = 5760; common OR 0.98, 95% CI 0.89 to 1.07). Sensitivity analyses gave the same results. INTERPRETATION: Fluoxetine 20 mg daily for 6 months did not improve functional recovery. It increased seizures, falls with injury, and bone fractures but reduced depression frequency at 6 months.

Feasible Peer-Mediated Intervention for Autistic Children Using Minimal Speech: A Qualitative Intervention Development Process.

PURPOSE: Qualitative engagement with stakeholders in the development of interventions can provide insight into strategies to maximize feasibility in real-life settings. We engaged stakeholders (autistic adults, early childhood educators, early childhood sector leaders and policy influencers, parents of autistic children, and speech-language pathologists) to inform the development of an educator-led peer-mediated intervention (PMI) for autistic preschoolers who use minimal speech that is feasible to implement in inclusive early childhood education and care (ECEC) settings. METHOD: A qualitative iterative intervention design process was utilized. Stakeholders (N = 15) attended an online workshop and completed a document review exploring the acceptability and feasibility of the proposed embedded PMI. A two-step analysis procedure using the Theoretical Domains Framework and template analysis was conducted to identify the barriers, enablers, and supports to the implementation of embedded PMI in early childhood settings. RESULTS: While embedded PMI was unanimously acceptable to stakeholders, several participants expressed concerns regarding feasibility. Barriers to the successful integration and implementation of PMI in inclusive preschool contexts included access to skills, knowledge, and resources. Participants identified strategies to overcome modifiable barriers and to enhance the existing enablers. These strategies are reflected in the following themes: build on the familiar, build capacity in augmentative and alternative communication, adopt a whole center approach, adapt to meet the needs of the ECEC setting, and engage in proactive implementation. CONCLUSION: To address barriers to the implementation of embedded PMI, action is needed at various levels: macro (national/policy), meso (organization/setting), and micro (individual). SUPPLEMENTAL MATERIAL: https://doi.org/10.23641/asha.25155770.

Sequential multiple assignment randomised trial to develop an adaptive mobile health intervention to increase physical activity in people poststroke in the community setting in Ireland: TAPAS trial protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Stroke is the second-leading cause of death and disability globally. Participation in physical activity (PA) is a cornerstone of secondary prevention in stroke care. Given the heterogeneous nature of stroke, PA interventions that are adaptive to individual performance are recommended. Mobile health (mHealth) has been identified as a potential approach to supporting PA poststroke. To this end, we aim to use a Sequential Multiple Assignment Randomised Trial (SMART) design to develop an adaptive, user-informed mHealth intervention to improve PA poststroke. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The components included in the 12-week intervention are based on empirical evidence and behavioural change theory and will include treatments to increase participation in Structured Exercise and Lifestyle or a combination of both. 117 participants will be randomly assigned to one of the two treatment components. At 6 weeks postinitial randomisation, participants will be classified as responders or non-responders based on participants' change in step count. Non-responders to the initial treatment will be randomly assigned to a different treatment allocation. The primary outcome will be PA (steps/day), feasibility and secondary clinical and cost outcomes will also be included. A SMART design will be used to evaluate the optimum adaptive PA intervention among community-dwelling, ambulatory people poststroke. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval has been granted by the Health Service Executive Mid-Western Ethics Committee (REC Ref: 026/2022). The findings will be submitted for publication and presented at relevant national and international academic conferences TRIALS REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT05606770.

Stakeholder Perceptions of the Acceptability of Peer-Mediated Intervention for Minimally Speaking Preschoolers on the Autism Spectrum.

Peer mediated intervention (PMI) is an evidence-based approach to supporting social and communication development for children on the autism spectrum. For PMI to be integrated into everyday practice, it needs to be acceptable to stakeholders. This article engaged with autistic individuals, early childhood educators, parents, and speech and language pathologists on the prospective acceptability of implementing PMI with minimally speaking preschoolers in inclusive preschool settings. Focus groups and semi-structured interviews were conducted. The transcriptions were analyzed qualitatively using reflexive thematic analysis. Stakeholders described PMI as an acceptable intervention approach for this population and provided valuable insights to inform the development and implementation of PMIs. Attention needs to be paid to how to support preschools to adopt a PMI-friendly philosophy.

Implementation of clinical guidelines for osteoarthritis together (IMPACT): protocol for a participatory health research approach to implementing high value care.

BACKGROUND: The evidence-based interventions of exercise and education have been strongly recommended as part of prominent clinical guidelines for hip and knee osteoarthritis (OA) for more than ten years. Despite the wealth of strong evidence that exists, implementation in practice is sub-optimal. This paper describes the key methodologies used in the co-design, tailoring, and evaluation of the IMPACT project implementation strategies, to confront this problem across multiple levels (micro, meso, macro) in public and private healthcare settings in Ireland. METHODS: Using a type III hybrid implementation-effectiveness design, a participatory, dynamic and iterative process will be used to tailor and evaluate multi-level implementation strategies using the following stages: 1) Co-design the implementation strategies with key stakeholders using best evidence, a theory-driven implementation framework (Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research), local context and expert consensus; 2) Pilot and evaluate the implementation strategies by training physiotherapists to deliver the evidence-based Good Life with osteoArthritis Denmark (GLA:D®) education and exercise programme using the implementation strategies, and conduct a mixed-methods process evaluation; 3) Adapt the implementation strategies based on implementation process evaluation indicators from stage two. The adapted strategies will be used for scale-up and sustainability in subsequent GLA:D® Ireland training programmes that will be rolled out nationally. Evaluation of effectiveness on patient and cost outcomes will continue up to 12 months post-programme delivery, using an online patient registry and pre-post design. DISCUSSION: This implementation science project aims to use participatory health research to address a gap in management of OA across public and private healthcare settings. This research has the potential to change practice and promote a policy of exercise and physical activity referral for chronic musculoskeletal disease that utilises community engagement effectively and enacts change 'together', with involvement of researchers, decision-makers, clinicians and patients.

Colchicine for prevention of vascular inflammation in Non-CardioEmbolic stroke (CONVINCE) - study protocol for a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Inflammation contributes to unstable atherosclerotic plaque and stroke. In randomised trials in patients with coronary disease, canukinumab (an interleukin-1B antagonist) and colchicine (a tubulin inhibitor with pleiotropic anti-inflammatory effects) reduced recurrent vascular events.Hypothesis: Anti-inflammatory therapy with low-dose colchicine plus usual care will reduce recurrent vascular events in patients with non-severe, non-cardioembolic stroke and TIA compared with usual care alone. DESIGN: CONVINCE is a multi-centre international (in 17 countries) Prospective, Randomised Open-label, Blinded-Endpoint assessment (PROBE) controlled Phase 3 clinical trial in 3154 participants. The intervention is colchicine 0.5 mg/day and usual care versus usual care alone (antiplatelet, lipid-lowering, antihypertensive treatment, lifestyle advice). Included patients are at least 40 years, with non-severe ischaemic stroke (modified Rankin score ≤3) or high-risk TIA (ABCD2 > 3, or positive DWI, or cranio-cervical artery stenosis) within 72 hours-28 days of randomisation, with qualifying stroke/TIA most likely caused by large artery stenosis, lacunar disease, or cryptogenic embolism. Exclusions are stroke/TIA caused by cardio-embolism or other defined cause (e.g. dissection), contra-indication to colchicine (including potential drug interactions), or incapacity for participation in a clinical trial. The anticipated median follow-up will be 36 months. The primary analysis will be by intention-to-treat. OUTCOME: The primary outcome is time to first recurrent ischaemic stroke, myocardial infarction, cardiac arrest, or hospitalisation with unstable angina (non-fatal or fatal). SUMMARY: CONVINCE will provide high-quality randomised data on the efficacy and safety of anti-inflammatory therapy with colchicine for secondary prevention after stroke. SCHEDULE: First-patient first-visit was December 2016. Recruitment to complete in 2021, follow-up to complete in 2023.

Ethnic differences in prevalence of actionable HbA1c levels in UK Biobank: implications for screening.

INTRODUCTION: Early detection and treatment of diabetes as well as its prevention help lessen longer-term complications. We determined the prevalence of pre-diabetes and undiagnosed diabetes in the UK Biobank and standardized the results to the UK general population. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: This cross-sectional study analyzed baseline UK Biobank data on plasma glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) to compare the prevalence of pre-diabetes and undiagnosed diabetes mellitus in white, South Asian, black, and Chinese participants. The overall and ethnic-specific results were standardized to the UK general population aged 40-70 years of age. RESULTS: Within the UK Biobank, the overall crude prevalence was 3.6% for pre-diabetes, 0.8% for undiagnosed diabetes, and 4.4% for either. Following standardization to the UK general population, the results were similar at 3.8%, 0.8%, and 4.7%, respectively. Crude prevalence was much higher in South Asian (11.0% pre-diabetes; 3.6% undiagnosed diabetes; 14.6% either) or black (13.8% pre-diabetes; 3.0% undiagnosed diabetes; 16.8% either) participants. Only six middle-aged or old-aged South Asian individuals or seven black would need to be tested to identify an HbA1c result that merits action. CONCLUSIONS: Single-stage population screening for pre-diabetes or undiagnosed diabetes in middle-old or old-aged South Asian and black individuals using HbA1c could be efficient and should be considered.

Remote history of VTE is associated with severe COVID-19 in middle and older age: UK Biobank cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a common, life-threatening complication of COVID-19 infection. COVID-19 risk-prediction models include a history of VTE. However, it is unclear whether remote history (>9 years previously) of VTE also confers increased risk of COVID-19. OBJECTIVES: To investigate possible association between VTE and COVID-19 severity, independent of other risk factors. METHODS: Cohort study of UK Biobank participants recruited between 2006 and 2010. Baseline data, including history of VTE, were linked to COVID-19 test results, COVID-19-related hospital admissions, and COVID-19 deaths. The risk of COVID-19 hospitalization or death was compared for participants with a remote history VTE versus without. Poisson regression models were run univariately then adjusted stepwise for sociodemographic, lifestyle, and comorbid covariates. RESULTS: After adjustment for sociodemographic and lifestyle confounders and comorbid conditions, remote history of VTE was associated with nonfatal community (RR 1.61, 95% CI 1.02-2.54, p = .039), nonfatal hospitalized (RR 1.52, 95% CI 1.06-2.17, p = .024) and severe (hospitalized or fatal) (RR 1.40, 95% CI 1.04-1.89, p = .025) COVID-19. Associations with remote history of VTE were stronger among men (severe COVID-19: RR 1.68, 95% CI 1.14-2.42, p = .009) than for women (severe COVID-19: RR 1.07, 95% CI 0.66-1.74, p = .786). CONCLUSION: Our findings support inclusion of remote history of VTE in COVID-19 risk-prediction scores, and consideration of sex-specific risk scores.

Derivation and Validation of a 10-Year Risk Score for Symptomatic Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm: Cohort Study of Nearly 500 000 Individuals.

BACKGROUND: Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) can occur in patients who are ineligible for routine ultrasound screening. A simple AAA risk score was derived and compared with current guidelines used for ultrasound screening of AAA. METHODS: United Kingdom Biobank participants without previous AAA were split into a derivation cohort (n=401 820, 54.6% women, mean age 56.4 years, 95.5% White race) and validation cohort (n=83 816). Incident AAA was defined as first hospital inpatient diagnosis of AAA, death from AAA, or an AAA-related surgical procedure. A multivariable Cox model was developed in the derivation cohort into an AAA risk score that did not require blood biomarkers. To illustrate the sensitivity and specificity of the risk score for AAA, a theoretical threshold to refer patients for ultrasound at 0.25% 10-year risk was modeled. Discrimination of the risk score was compared with a model of US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) AAA screening guidelines. RESULTS: In the derivation cohort, there were 1570 (0.40%) cases of AAA over a median 11.3 years of follow-up. Components of the AAA risk score were age (stratified by smoking status), weight (stratified by smoking status), antihypertensive and cholesterol-lowering medication use, height, diastolic blood pressure, baseline cardiovascular disease, and diabetes. In the validation cohort, over 10 years of follow-up, the C-index for the model of the USPSTF guidelines was 0.705 (95% CI, 0.678-0.733). The C-index of the risk score as a continuous variable was 0.856 (95% CI, 0.837-0.878). In the validation cohort, the USPSTF model yielded sensitivity 63.9% and specificity 71.3%. At the 0.25% 10-year risk threshold, the risk score yielded sensitivity 82.1% and specificity 70.7% while also improving the net reclassification index compared with the USPSTF model +0.176 (95% CI, 0.120-0.232). A combined model, whereby risk scoring was combined with the USPSTF model, also improved prediction compared with USPSTF alone (net reclassification index +0.101 [95% CI, 0.055-0.147]). CONCLUSIONS: In an asymptomatic general population, a risk score based on patient age, height, weight, and medical history may improve identification of asymptomatic patients at risk for clinical events from AAA. Further development and validation of risk scores to detect asymptomatic AAA are needed.

The impact of body mass index on breast cancer incidence among women at increased risk: an observational study from the International Breast Intervention Studies.

BACKGROUND: We investigated the association between body mass index (BMI) and breast cancer risk in women at increased risk of breast cancer receiving tamoxifen or anastrozole compared with placebo using data from the International Breast Cancer Intervention Studies [IBIS-I (tamoxifen) and IBIS-II (anastrozole)]. METHODS: Baseline BMI was calculated from nurse assessed height and weight measurements for premenopausal (n = 3138) and postmenopausal (n = 3731) women in IBIS-I and postmenopausal women in IBIS-II (n = 3787). The primary endpoint was any breast cancer event (invasive and ductal carcinoma in situ). We used Cox proportional hazards regression to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for risk after adjustment for covariates. RESULTS: There were 582 (IBIS-I) and 248 (IBIS-II) breast cancer events [median follow-up = 16.2 years (IQR 14.4-17.7) and 10.9 years (IQR 8.8-13.0), respectively]. In adjusted analysis, women with a higher BMI had an increased breast cancer risk in both IBIS-I [HR = 1.06 per 5 kg/m2 (0.99-1.15), p = 0.114] and in IBIS-II [HR per 5 kg/m2 = 1.21 (1.09-1.35), p < 0.001]. In IBIS-I, the association between BMI and breast cancer risk was positive in postmenopausal women [adjusted HR per 5 kg/m2 = 1.14 (1.03-1.26), p = 0.01] but not premenopausal women [adjusted HR per 5 kg/m2 = 0.97 (0.86-1.09), p = 0.628]. There was no interaction between BMI and treatment group for breast cancer risk in either IBIS-I (p = 0.62) or IBIS-II (p = 0.55). CONCLUSIONS: Higher BMI is associated with greater breast cancer risk in postmenopausal women at increased risk of the disease, but no effect was observed in premenopausal women. The lack of interaction between BMI and treatment group on breast cancer risk suggests women are likely to experience benefit from preventive therapy regardless of their BMI. Trial registration Both trials were registered [IBIS-I: ISRCTN91879928 on 24/02/2006, retrospectively registered ( http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN91879928 ); IBIS-II: ISRCTN31488319 on 07/01/2005, retrospectively registered ( http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN31488319 )].

Serological Responses of Raccoons and Striped Skunks to Ontario Rabies Vaccine Bait in West Virginia during 2012-2016.

Since the 1990s, oral rabies vaccination (ORV) has been used successfully to halt the westward spread of the raccoon rabies virus (RV) variant from the eastern continental USA. Elimination of raccoon RV from the eastern USA has proven challenging across targeted raccoon (Procyon lotor) and striped skunk (Mephitis mephitis) populations impacted by raccoon RV. Field trial evaluations of the Ontario Rabies Vaccine Bait (ONRAB) were initiated to expand ORV products available to meet the rabies management goal of raccoon RV elimination. This study describes the continuation of a 2011 trial in West Virginia. Our objective was to evaluate raccoon and skunk response to ORV occurring in West Virginia for an additional two years (2012-2013) at 75 baits/km2 followed by three years (2014-2016) of evaluation at 300 baits/km2. We measured the change in rabies virus-neutralizing antibody (RVNA) seroprevalence in targeted wildlife populations by comparing levels pre- and post-ORV during each year of study. The increase in bait density from 75/km2 to 300/km2 corresponded to an increase in average post-ORV seroprevalence for raccoon and skunk populations. Raccoon population RVNA levels increased from 53% (300/565, 95% CI: 50-57%) to 82.0% (596/727, 95% CI: 79-85%) during this study, and skunk population RVNA levels increased from 11% (8/72, 95% CI: 6-20%) to 39% (51/130, 95% CI: 31-48%). The RVNA seroprevalence pre-ORV demonstrated an increasing trend across study years for both bait densities and species, indicating that multiple years of ORV may be necessary to achieve and maintain RVNA seroprevalence in target wildlife populations for the control and elimination of raccoon RV in the eastern USA.

Preterm Birth and Antiretroviral Exposure in Infants HIV-exposed Uninfected.

BACKGROUND: Infants HIV-exposed and uninfected (IHEU) who are born to women living with HIV are at an increased risk of preterm birth (PTB). Antenatal exposure to certain maternal antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimens has been associated with PTB, although existing studies in this domain are limited and report discordant findings. We determined odds of PTB among IHEU by antenatal ART regimens and timing of exposure, adjusting for maternal risk factors. METHODS: We retrospectively studied IHEU born in British Columbia (BC), Canada between 1990 and 2012 utilizing provincial health administrative databases. We included data from a control group of infants HIV-unexposed and uninfected (IHUU) matched ~3:1 for each IHEU on age, sex and geocode. RESULTS: A total of 411 IHEU and 1224 IHUU were included in univariable analysis. PTB was more frequent among IHEU (20%) compared with IHUU (7%). IHEU were more often antenatally exposed to alcohol, tobacco, as well as prescription, nonprescription, and illicit drugs (IHEU: 36%, 8% and 35%; vs. IHUU: 3%, 1% and 9%, respectively). After adjusting for maternal substance use and smoking exposure, IHEU remained at increased odds of PTB [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) (95% CI): 2.66; (1.73, 4.08)] compared with matched IHUU controls. ART-exposed IHEU (excluding those with NRTIs only ART) had lower adjusted odds of PTB compared with IHEU with no maternal ART exposure, regardless of regimen [aOR range: 0.16-0.29 (0.02-0.95)]. Odds of PTB between IHEU exposed to ART from conception compared with IHEU exposed to ART postconception did not differ [aOR: 0.91 (0.47, 1.76)]; however, both groups experienced lower odds of PTB compared with IHEU with no maternal ART [preconception: aOR: 0.28 (0.08, 0.89); postconception: aOR 0.30 (0.11, 0.83)]. CONCLUSIONS: BC IHEU were over twice as likely to be born preterm compared with demographically matched controls. Maternal substance use in pregnancy modulated this risk; however, we found no adverse associations of PTB with exposure to antenatal ART.

Occupation and risk of severe COVID-19: prospective cohort study of 120 075 UK Biobank participants.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate severe COVID-19 risk by occupational group. METHODS: Baseline UK Biobank data (2006-10) for England were linked to SARS-CoV-2 test results from Public Health England (16 March to 26 July 2020). Included participants were employed or self-employed at baseline, alive and aged <65 years in 2020. Poisson regression models were adjusted sequentially for baseline demographic, socioeconomic, work-related, health, and lifestyle-related risk factors to assess risk ratios (RRs) for testing positive in hospital or death due to COVID-19 by three occupational classification schemes (including Standard Occupation Classification (SOC) 2000). RESULTS: Of 120 075 participants, 271 had severe COVID-19. Relative to non-essential workers, healthcare workers (RR 7.43, 95% CI 5.52 to 10.00), social and education workers (RR 1.84, 95% CI 1.21 to 2.82) and other essential workers (RR 1.60, 95% CI 1.05 to 2.45) had a higher risk of severe COVID-19. Using more detailed groupings, medical support staff (RR 8.70, 95% CI 4.87 to 15.55), social care (RR 2.46, 95% CI 1.47 to 4.14) and transport workers (RR 2.20, 95% CI 1.21 to 4.00) had the highest risk within the broader groups. Compared with white non-essential workers, non-white non-essential workers had a higher risk (RR 3.27, 95% CI 1.90 to 5.62) and non-white essential workers had the highest risk (RR 8.34, 95% CI 5.17 to 13.47). Using SOC 2000 major groups, associate professional and technical occupations, personal service occupations and plant and machine operatives had a higher risk, compared with managers and senior officials. CONCLUSIONS: Essential workers have a higher risk of severe COVID-19. These findings underscore the need for national and organisational policies and practices that protect and support workers with an elevated risk of severe COVID-19.

Update to the FOCUS, AFFINITY and EFFECTS trials studying the effect(s) of fluoxetine in patients with a recent stroke: statistical analysis plan for the trials and for the individual patient data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Three large trials of fluoxetine for stroke recovery (FOCUS (fluoxetine or control under supervision), AFFINITY (the Assessment oF FluoxetINe In sTroke recovery) and EFFECTS (Efficacy oF Fluoxetine-a randomisEd Controlled Trial in Stroke)) have been collaboratively designed with the same basic protocol to facilitate an individual patient data analysis (IPDM). The statistical analysis plan for the three individual trials has already been reported in Trials, including a brief description of the IPDM. In this protocol, we describe in detail how we will perform the IPDM. METHODS/DESIGN: Data from EFFECTS and AFFINITY will be transferred securely to the FOCUS statistician, who will perform a one-stage IPDM and a two-stage IPDM. For the one-stage IPDM, data will be combined into a single data set and the same analyses performed as described for the individual trials. For the two-stage IPDM, the results for the three individual trials will be combined using fixed effects meta-analyses. The primary and secondary outcome domains for the IPDM are the same as for individual trials. We will also perform analyses according to several subgroups including country of recruitment, ethnicity and trial. We will also explore the effects of fluoxetine on our primary and secondary outcomes in subgroups defined by combinations of characteristics. We also describe additional research questions that will be addressed using the combined data set, and published subsequently, including predictors of important post-stroke problems such as seizures, low mood and bone fractures. DISCUSSION: An IPDM of our three large trials of fluoxetine for stroke recovery will allow us to provide the most precise estimates of any risks and benefits of fluoxetine vs placebo, to detect reliably a smaller overall effect size than those detectable by the individual trials, to better determine the effects of fluoxetine vs placebo in subgroups of patients and outcomes and to broaden the generalisability of the results. Also, we may identify differences in treatment effects between studies. TRIAL REGISTRATION: FOCUS: ISRCTN ISRCTN83290762 . Registered on 23 May 2012. EudraCT 2011-005616-29 . Registered on 3 February 2012. AFFINITY: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12611000774921 . Registered on 22 July 2011. EFFECTS: ISRCTN ISRCTN13020412 . Registered on 19 December 2014. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02683213 . Registered on 2 February 2016. EudraCT 2011-006130-16 . Registered on 8 August 2014.

Fluoxetine to improve functional outcomes in patients after acute stroke: the FOCUS RCT.

BACKGROUND: Our Cochrane review of selective serotonin inhibitors for stroke recovery indicated that fluoxetine may improve functional recovery, but the trials were small and most were at high risk of bias. OBJECTIVES: The Fluoxetine Or Control Under Supervision (FOCUS) trial tested the hypothesis that fluoxetine improves recovery after stroke. DESIGN: The FOCUS trial was a pragmatic, multicentre, parallel-group, individually randomised, placebo-controlled trial. SETTING: This trial took place in 103 UK hospitals. PARTICIPANTS: Patients were eligible if they were aged ≥ 18 years, had a clinical stroke diagnosis, with focal neurological deficits, between 2 and 15 days after onset. INTERVENTIONS: Patients were randomly allocated 20 mg of fluoxetine once per day or the matching placebo for 6 months via a web-based system using a minimisation algorithm. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was the modified Rankin Scale at 6 months. Patients, carers, health-care staff and the trial team were masked to treatment allocation. Outcome was assessed at 6 and 12 months after randomisation. Patients were analysed by their treatment allocation as specified in a published statistical analysis plan. RESULTS: Between 10 September 2012 and 31 March 2017, we recruited 3127 patients, 1564 of whom were allocated fluoxetine and 1563 of whom were allocated placebo. The modified Rankin Scale score at 6 months was available for 1553 out of 1564 (99.3%) of those allocated fluoxetine and 1553 out of 1563 (99.4%) of those allocated placebo. The distribution across modified Rankin Scale categories at 6 months was similar in the two groups (common odds ratio adjusted for minimisation variables 0.951, 95% confidence interval 0.839 to 1.079; p = 0.439). Compared with placebo, patients who were allocated fluoxetine were less likely to develop a new episode of depression by 6 months [210 (13.0%) vs. 269 (16.9%), difference -3.78%, 95% confidence interval -1.26% to -6.30%; p = 0.003], but had more bone fractures [45 (2.9%) vs. 23 (1.5%), difference 1.41%, 95% confidence interval 0.38% to 2.43%; p = 0.007]. There were no statistically significant differences in any other recorded events at 6 or 12 months. Health economic analyses showed no differences between groups in health-related quality of life, hospital bed usage or health-care costs. LIMITATIONS: Some non-adherence to trial medication, lack of face-to-face assessment of neurological status at follow-up and lack of formal psychiatric diagnosis during follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: 20 mg of fluoxetine daily for 6 months after acute stroke did not improve patients' functional outcome but decreased the occurrence of depression and increased the risk of fractures. These data inform decisions about using fluoxetine after stroke to improve functional outcome or to prevent or treat mood disorders. The Assessment oF FluoxetINe In sTroke recoverY (AFFINITY) (Australasia/Vietnam) and Efficacy oF Fluoxetine - a randomisEd Controlled Trial in Stroke (EFFECTS) (Sweden) trials recruited an additional 2780 patients and will report their results in 2020. These three trials have an almost identical protocol, which was collaboratively developed. Our planned individual patient data meta-analysis will provide more precise estimates of the effects of fluoxetine after stroke and indicate whether or not effects vary depending on patients' characteristics and health-care setting. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN83290762. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 22. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information. The Stroke Association (reference TSA 2011101) funded the start-up phase.

Fluoxetine, sometimes referred to by the drug company name Prozac, has been used for many years to treat people who are depressed, including after a stroke. However, studies have suggested that treatment with fluoxetine started soon after a stroke might improve patients' physical recovery. The Fluoxetine Or Control Under Supervision (FOCUS) trial recruited 3127 volunteers who had had a stroke within the previous 2 weeks from 103 UK hospitals between 2012 and 2017. Participants were randomly allocated to take a 6-month course of fluoxetine or an identical placebo capsule containing no fluoxetine. They were followed up at 6 months and 12 months after recruitment. Patients completed questionnaires that indicated how much they had recovered, and also measured their mood, fatigue and quality of life. The results of the trial showed that the physical recovery of patients was very similar in both groups. This indicates that fluoxetine does not improve physical outcomes of stroke patients. However, participants receiving fluoxetine were less likely to develop depression after the stroke but once the fluoxetine was stopped these effects on mood disappeared. Unfortunately, patients on fluoxetine were slightly more likely to fall and fracture a bone than those on placebo. The FOCUS trial is the first of three large randomised controlled trials testing fluoxetine in stroke patients to be completed. The FOCUS trial results suggest that patients with stroke should not routinely be treated with fluoxetine. The other two trials will give us further information about the effects of fluoxetine after stroke and whether or not its effects differ between countries or ethnic groups.

The associations of sugar-sweetened, artificially sweetened and naturally sweet juices with all-cause mortality in 198,285 UK Biobank participants: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Recent efforts to address the obesity epidemic have focused on sugar consumption, especially sugar-sweetened beverages. However, sugar takes many forms, is only one contributor to overall energy consumption and is correlated with other health-related lifestyle factors. The objective was to investigate the associations with all-cause mortality of sugar- and artificially sweetened beverages and naturally sweet juices. METHODS: Setting: UK Biobank, UK. Participants joined the UK Biobank study from 2006 to 2010 and were followed up until 2016; 198,285 men and women aged 40-69 years were eligible for this study (40% of the UK Biobank), of whom 3166 (1.6%) died over a mean of 7 years follow-up. DESIGN: prospective population-based cohort study. Exposure variables: dietary consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages, artificially sweetened beverages, naturally sweet juices (100% fruit/vegetable juices) and total sugar intake, self-reported via 24-h dietary assessment tool completed between 2009 and 2012. MAIN OUTCOME: all-cause mortality. Cox regression analyses were used to study the association between the daily intake of the above beverages and all-cause mortality. Models were adjusted for sociodemographic, economic, lifestyle and dietary confounders. RESULTS: Total energy intake, total sugar intake and percentage of energy derived from sugar were comparable among participants who consumed > 2/day sugar-sweetened beverages and > 2/day fruit/vegetable juices (10,221 kJ/day versus 10,381 kJ/day; 183 g versus 190 g; 30.6% versus 31.0%). All-cause mortality was associated with total sugar intake (highest quintile adj. HR 1.28, 95% CI 1.06-1.55) and intake of sugar-sweetened beverages (> 2/day adj. HR 1.84, 95% CI 1.42-2.37) and remained so in sensitivity analyses. An association between artificially sweetened beverage intake and mortality did not persist after excluding deaths in the first 2 years of follow-up (landmark analysis) nor after excluding participants with recent weight loss. Furthermore, the inverse association between fruit/vegetable juice intake and mortality did not persist after additional adjustment for a diet quality score. CONCLUSIONS: Higher mortality is associated with sugar-sweetened beverages specifically. The lack of an adverse association with fruit/vegetable juices suggests that source of sugar may be important and the association with artificially sweetened beverage may reflect reverse causation.

Using the Bayesian credible subgroups method to identify populations benefiting from treatment: An application to the Look AHEAD trial.

Traditionally, subgroup analyses are used to assess whether patient characteristics moderate treatment effectiveness with general disregard for issues of multiplicity. Using data from The Action for Health in Diabetes (Look AHEAD) trial in the United States, we aim to identify a subgroup where all of its types of members experience a treatment benefit defined as reducing the likelihood of a major cardiovascular event under an intensive lifestyle and weight-loss intervention. We apply the credible subgroups method to a Bayesian logistic model with a conservative prior that is sceptical of large treatment effect heterogeneity. The covariate profiles for which there is sufficient evidence of treatment benefit are, coarsely, middle-aged women, in poor subjective general health and with moderately to poorly controlled diabetes. There is at least 80% posterior probability that the conditional average treatment effect is positive for all covariate profiles fitting this description, which account for 0.5% of trial participants. Conversely, the covariate profiles that are likely to be associated with no benefit are middle aged and older men in excellent subjective general health, with well-controlled diabetes. These profiles apply to less than 2% of trial participants. More information is required to determine treatment benefit or no benefit for the remainder of the trial population.