From first to second wave: follow-up of the prospective COVID-19 cohort (KoCo19) in Munich (Germany).

BACKGROUND: In the 2nd year of the COVID-19 pandemic, knowledge about the dynamics of the infection in the general population is still limited. Such information is essential for health planners, as many of those infected show no or only mild symptoms and thus, escape the surveillance system. We therefore aimed to describe the course of the pandemic in the Munich general population living in private households from April 2020 to January 2021. METHODS: The KoCo19 baseline study took place from April to June 2020 including 5313 participants (age 14 years and above). From November 2020 to January 2021, we could again measure SARS-CoV-2 antibody status in 4433 of the baseline participants (response 83%). Participants were offered a self-sampling kit to take a capillary blood sample (dry blood spot; DBS). Blood was analysed using the Elecsys® Anti-SARS-CoV-2 assay (Roche). Questionnaire information on socio-demographics and potential risk factors assessed at baseline was available for all participants. In addition, follow-up information on health-risk taking behaviour and number of personal contacts outside the household (N = 2768) as well as leisure time activities (N = 1263) were collected in summer 2020. RESULTS: Weighted and adjusted (for specificity and sensitivity) SARS-CoV-2 sero-prevalence at follow-up was 3.6% (95% CI 2.9-4.3%) as compared to 1.8% (95% CI 1.3-3.4%) at baseline. 91% of those tested positive at baseline were also antibody-positive at follow-up. While sero-prevalence increased from early November 2020 to January 2021, no indication of geospatial clustering across the city of Munich was found, although cases clustered within households. Taking baseline result and time to follow-up into account, men and participants in the age group 20-34 years were at the highest risk of sero-positivity. In the sensitivity analyses, differences in health-risk taking behaviour, number of personal contacts and leisure time activities partly explained these differences. CONCLUSION: The number of citizens in Munich with SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was still below 5% during the 2nd wave of the pandemic. Antibodies remained present in the majority of SARS-CoV-2 sero-positive baseline participants. Besides age and sex, potentially confounded by differences in behaviour, no major risk factors could be identified. Non-pharmaceutical public health measures are thus still important.

Prevalence and Risk Factors of Infection in the Representative COVID-19 Cohort Munich.

Given the large number of mild or asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 cases, only population-based studies can provide reliable estimates of the magnitude of the pandemic. We therefore aimed to assess the sero-prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in the Munich general population after the first wave of the pandemic. For this purpose, we drew a representative sample of 2994 private households and invited household members 14 years and older to complete questionnaires and to provide blood samples. SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity was defined as Roche N pan-Ig ≥ 0.4218. We adjusted the prevalence for the sampling design, sensitivity, and specificity. We investigated risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity and geospatial transmission patterns by generalized linear mixed models and permutation tests. Seropositivity for SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies was 1.82% (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.28-2.37%) as compared to 0.46% PCR-positive cases officially registered in Munich. Loss of the sense of smell or taste was associated with seropositivity (odds ratio (OR) 47.4; 95% CI 7.2-307.0) and infections clustered within households. By this first population-based study on SARS-CoV-2 prevalence in a large German municipality not affected by a superspreading event, we could show that at least one in four cases in private households was reported and known to the health authorities. These results will help authorities to estimate the true burden of disease in the population and to take evidence-based decisions on public health measures.

Face and content validity of a prospective multidimensional performance instrument for service delivery in district health systems in low-income countries: a Delphi study.

BACKGROUND: Valid performance indicators help to track and improve health services. The aim of this study was to test the face and content validity of a set of performance indicators for service delivery in district health systems of low-income countries. METHODS: A Delphi method with three stages was used. A panel of experts voted (yes vs no) on the face value of performance indicators. Agreement on the inclusion of indicators was a score of >75% and ≥50% during stages one and two, respectively. During stage three, indicators with a mean score of ≥3.8 on a five-point scale were included. The panel also rated the content validity of the overall set of indicators. RESULTS: The panel agreed on the face value of 59 out of 238 performance indicators. Agreement on the content validity of the set of indicators reached 100%. Most of the retained indicators were related to the capacity of health facilities, the quality of maternal and child health services and HIV care and treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Policymakers in low-income countries could use a set of performance indicators with modest face and high content validity, and mainly aspects of capacity and quality to improve health service delivery in districts.

Where is the 'global' in the European Union's Health Research and Innovation Agenda?

Global Health has not featured as prominently in the European Union (EU) research agenda in recent years as it did in the first decade of the new millennium, and participation of low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) in EU health research has declined substantially. The Horizon Europe Research and Innovation Framework adopted by the European Parliament in April 2019 for the period 2021-2027 will serve as an important funding instrument for health research, yet the proposed health research budget to be finalised towards the end of 2019 was reduced from 10% in the current framework, Horizon 2020, to 8% in Horizon Europe. Our analysis takes the evolvement of Horizon Europe from the initial framework of June 2018 to the framework agreed on in April 2019 into account. It shows that despite some improvements in terms of Global Health and reference to the Sustainable Development Goals, European industrial competitiveness continues to play a paramount role, with Global Health research needs and relevant health research for LMICs being only partially addressed. We argue that the globally interconnected nature of health and the transdisciplinary nature of health research need to be fully taken into account and acted on in the new European Research and Innovation Framework. A facilitated global research collaboration through Horizon Europe could ensure that Global Health innovations and solutions benefit all parts of the world including EU countries.

Administrators, health service providers, and consumers perspectives of functions of district health-care systems in Oromia region, Ethiopia: A qualitative study.

The practice of functions of district health-care systems in Ethiopia is not clear. The aim of this study was to investigate the perspectives of administrators, health service providers, and health-care consumers regarding functions of district health-care systems as currently practiced. Grounded theory approach was applied using interviews and desk review of documents. This study was set up in Oromia National Regional State, Ethiopia. Inductive analysis of interviews was done. Interviews and document reviews were mirrored. Eleven functions of district health-care systems emerged in this study organized by level with relationships and commonality of few activities. The 11 functions of district health-care systems were creating capacity of health centers and health professionals for the provision of health care; creating access for the provision of health care; ensuring equitable access to health care; regulation of private health-care providers; disaster preparedness; monitoring risk factors and diseases in the district; provision of health promotive, preventive, and curative health care for communicable diseases and maternal health conditions; monitoring intermediate outcomes of care; developing capacity of health post and villagers toward demand creation for health care; provision of maternal and child health services; and helping health posts in reaching mothers and sick individuals.

Population-based assessment of health, healthcare utilisation, and specific needs of Syrian migrants in Germany: what is the best sampling method?

BACKGROUND: Studies elucidating health-related information and special needs of Syrian migrants living in Germany are urgently required. However, data is scarce and finding appropriate sampling strategies to obtain representative results is challenging. In order to increase survey response in hard-to-reach populations, new methods were developed. One of them is respondent-driven sampling (RDS), a network sampling technique. We aimed to assess if respondent-driven sampling is a better approach to recruit Syrian migrants for health research than classical random sampling via the population registry. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted in Munich between April and June 2017 inviting adults (18+ years) born in Syria to answer an online questionnaire asking for sociodemographic and health-related information. Recruitment of participants was done using a) random sampling via the population registry (PR) and b) RDS. The two study populations recruited via respondent-driven sampling and the population registry were compared to a sample drawn from the population registry with respect to gender and citizenship. In addition, the two study populations were compared to each other regarding self-reported health status, healthcare utilisation, lifestyle factors, social network size, and acculturation. RESULTS: Of 374 persons randomly drawn from the population registry, 49 individuals answered the questionnaire completely (response: 13.1%) while via RDS 195 participants were recruited by 16 seeds. More persons possessed German citizenship in the total sample (20.5, 95% CI: 16.6 to 24.8%) and in the PR study population (28.6, 95% CI: 16.6 to 43.3%) than in the study population (0.5, 95% CI: 0.1 to 1.5%). Participants recruited via the population registry were older, smoked less, reported more often to hold a university degree, and indicated a higher prevalence of chronic diseases, more frequent healthcare utilisation, higher scores of acculturation as well as a larger social network compared to the study population obtained via RDS. CONCLUSIONS: Response was very low in the PR sample. The number of participants recruited via RDS was larger and led to a study population with substantially different characteristics. Our study thus indicates that RDS is a useful way to gain access to specific subgroups that are hard to reach via traditional random sampling.

Determination of clusters and factors associated with dengue dispersion during the first epidemic related to Dengue virus serotype 4 in Vitória, Brazil.

Dengue occurrence is partially influenced by the immune status of the population. Consequently, the introduction of a new Dengue virus serotype can trigger explosive epidemics in susceptible populations. The determination of clusters in this scenario can help to identify hotspots and understand the disease dispersion regardless of the influence of the population herd immunity. The present study evaluated the pattern and factors associated with dengue dispersion during the first epidemic related to Dengue virus serotype 4 in Vitória, Espírito Santo state, Brazil. Data on 18,861 dengue cases reported in Vitória from September 2012 to June 2013 were included in the study. The analysis of spatial variation in temporal trend was performed to detect clusters that were compared by their respective relative risk, house index, population density, and income in an ecological study. Overall, 11 clusters were detected. The time trend increase of dengue incidence in the overall study population was 636%. The five clusters that showed a lower time trend increase than the overall population presented a higher incidence in the beginning of the epidemic and, compared to the six clusters with higher time trend increase, they presented higher relative risk for their inhabitants to acquire dengue infection (P-value = 0.02) and a lower income (P-value <0.01). House index and population density did not differ between the clusters. Early increase of dengue incidence and higher relative risk for acquiring dengue infection were favored in low-income areas. Preventive actions and improvement of infrastructure in low-income areas should be prioritized in order to diminish the magnitude of dengue dispersion after the introduction of a new serotype.

Serotype influences on dengue severity: a cross-sectional study on 485 confirmed dengue cases in Vitória, Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Dengue is caused by a RNA virus of the family Flaviviridae, which presents four serotypes (DENV-1 to DENV-4) capable of inducing hemorrhage. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the influence of serotype on the outcome of dengue. METHODS: This cross-sectional study included data from dengue cases with serotyping results that occurred between 2009 and 2013 in Vitória, Espírito Santo, Brazil. Data were accessed through the Information System for Notifiable Diseases. Chi-square test, Fisher exact test, Mann-Whitney U test, and logistic regression were performed to assess associations between different serotypes and dengue severity, while considering gender and age. RESULTS: The sample consisted of 485 laboratory confirmed dengue cases, of which 46.4 % were females, with median age of 26 years. Regarding overall samples, 77.3 % were caused by DENV-1, 16.1 % by DENV-4, 6.4 % by DENV-2, and 0.2 % by DENV-3. Severe dengue affected 6.6 % of all cases, of which 32.3 % of the cases caused by DENV-2, 6.4 % of those caused by DENV-4, 4.5 % of those caused by DENV-1, and none of those caused by DENV-3. Severe dengue was found to be seven times more frequent among cases of DENV-2 than among those of the other serotypes. CONCLUSIONS: The present study found that cases of DENV-2 had a higher proportion of severe dengue than among those of DENV-1 and DENV-4. Consequently, early detection of serotypes circulating in the territory could be an important approach to prevent increasing numbers of severe outcomes during dengue outbreaks by predicting the health support needed for early diagnoses and treatment of dengue cases.

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in developing countries: a symposium report.

In recent years, non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have globally shown increasing impact on health status in populations with disproportionately higher rates in developing countries. NCDs are the leading cause of mortality worldwide and a serious public health threat to developing countries. Recognizing the importance and urgency of the issue, a one-day symposium was organized on NCDs in Developing Countries by the CIHLMU Center for International Health, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, Munich on 22nd March 2014. The objective of the symposium was to understand the current situation of different NCDs public health programs and the current trends in NCDs research and policy, promote exchange of ideas, encourage scientific debate and foster networking, partnerships and opportunities among experts from different clinical, research, and policy fields. The symposium was attended by more than seventy participants representing scientists, physicians, academics and students from several institutes in Germany and abroad. Seven key note presentations were made at the symposium by experts from Germany, UK, France, Bangladesh and Vietnam. This paper highlights the presentations and discussions during the symposium on different aspects of NCDs in developing countries. The symposium elucidated the dynamics of NCDs in developing countries and invited the participants to learn about evidence-based practices and policies for prevention and management of major NCDs and to debate the way forward.

Evidence for significant influence of host immunity on changes in differential blood count during malaria.

BACKGROUND: Malaria has been shown to change blood counts. Recently, a few studies have investigated the alteration of the peripheral blood monocyte-to-lymphocyte count ratio (MLCR) and the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte count ratio (NLCR) during infection with Plasmodium falciparum. Based on these findings this study investigates the predictive values of blood count alterations during malaria across different sub-populations. METHODS: Cases and controls admitted to the Department of Infectious Diseases and Tropical Medicine from January 2000 through December 2010 were included in this comparative analysis. Blood count values and other variables at admission controlled for age, gender and immune status were statistically investigated. RESULTS: The study population comprised 210 malaria patients, infected with P. falciparum (68%), Plasmodium vivax (21%), Plasmodium ovale (7%) and Plasmodium malariae (4%), and 210 controls. A positive correlation of parasite density with NLCR and neutrophil counts, and a negative correlation of parasite density with thrombocyte, leucocyte and lymphocyte counts were found. An interaction with semi-immunity was observed; ratios were significantly different in semi-immune compared to non-immune patients (P <0.001).The MLCR discriminated best between malaria cases and controls (AUC = 0.691; AUC = 0.741 in non-immune travellers), whereas the NLCR better predicted severe malaria, especially in semi-immune patients (AUC = 0.788). CONCLUSION: Malaria causes typical but non-specific alterations of the differential blood count. The predictive value of the ratios was fair but limited. However, these changes were less pronounced in patients with semi-immunity. The ratios might constitute easily applicable surrogate biomarkers for immunity.