Modeling outcome trajectories in patients with acquired brain injury using a non-linear dynamic evolution approach.

This study describes a dynamic non-linear mathematical approach for modeling the course of disease in acquired brain injury (ABI) patients. Data from a multicentric study were used to evaluate the reliability of the Michaelis-Menten (MM) model applied to well-known clinical variables that assess the outcome of ABI patients. The sample consisted of 156 ABI patients admitted to eight neurorehabilitation subacute units and evaluated at baseline (T0), 4 months after the event (T1) and at discharge (T2). The MM model was used to characterize the trend of the first Principal Component Analysis (PCA) dimension (represented by the variables: feeding modality, RLAS, ERBI-A, Tracheostomy, CRS-r and ERBI-B) in order to predict the most plausible outcome, in terms of positive or negative Glasgow outcome score (GOS) at discharge. Exploring the evolution of the PCA dimension 1 over time, after day 86 the MM model better differentiated between the time course for individuals with a positive and negative GOS (accuracy: 85%; sensitivity: 90.6%; specificity: 62.5%). The non-linear dynamic mathematical model can be used to provide more comprehensive trajectories of the clinical evolution of ABI patients during the rehabilitation period. Our model can be used to address patients for interventions designed for a specific outcome trajectory.

Predicting Outcome of Acquired Brain Injury by the Evolution of Paroxysmal Sympathetic Hyperactivity Signs.

In this multi-center study, we provide a systematic evaluation of the clinical variability associated with paroxysmal sympathetic hyperactivity (PSH) in patients with acquired brain injury (ABI) to determine how these signs can impact outcomes. A total of 156 ABI patients with a disorder of consciousness (DoC) were admitted to neurorehabilitation subacute units (intensive rehabilitation unit; IRU) and evaluated at baseline (T0), after 4 months from event (T1), and at discharge (T2). The outcome measure was the Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended, whereas age, sex, etiology, Coma Recovery Scale-Revised (CRS-r), Rancho Los Amigos Scale (RLAS), Early Rehabilitation Barthel Index (ERBI), PSH-Assessment Measure (PSH-AM) scores and other clinical features were considered as predictive factors. A machine learning (ML) approach was used to identify the best predictive model of clinical outcomes. The etiology was predominantly vascular (50.8%), followed by traumatic (36.2%). At admission, prevalence of PSH was 31.3%, which decreased to 16.6% and 4.4% at T1 and T2, respectively. At T2, 2.8% were dead and 61.1% had a full recovery of consciousness, whereas 36.1% remained in VS or MCS. A support vector machine (SVM)-based ML approach provides the best model with 82% accuracy in predicting outcomes. Analysis of variable importance shows that the most important clinical factors influencing the outcome are the PSH-AM scores measured at T0 and T1, together with neurological diagnosis, CRS-r, and RLAS scores measured at T0. This joint multi-center effort provides a comprehensive picture of the clinical impact of PSH signs in ABI patients, demonstrating its predictive value in comparison with other well-known clinical measurements.