Temporal Trends in Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes in Birthing Individuals Aged 15 to 44 Years in the United States, 2007 to 2019.

Background Adverse pregnancy outcomes (APOs) (hypertensive disorders of pregnancy [HDP], preterm delivery [PTD], or low birth weight [LBW]) are associated adverse maternal and offspring cardiovascular outcomes. Therefore, we sought to describe nationwide temporal trends in the burden of each APO (HDP, PTD, LBW) from 2007 to 2019 to inform strategies to optimize maternal and offspring health outcomes. Methods and Results We performed a serial cross-sectional analysis of APO subtypes (HDP, PTD, LBW) from 2007 to 2019. We included maternal data from all live births that occurred in the United States using the National Center for Health Statistics Natality Files. We quantified age-standardized and age-specific rates of APOs per 1000 live births and their respective mean annual percentage change. All analyses were stratified by self-report of maternal race and ethnicity. Among 51 685 525 live births included, 15% were to non-Hispanic Black individuals, 24% Hispanic individuals, and 6% Asian individuals. Between 2007 and 2019, age standardized HDP rates approximately doubled, from 38.4 (38.2-38.6) to 77.8 (77.5-78.1) per 1000 live births. A significant inflection point was observed in 2014, with an acceleration in the rate of increase of HDP from 2007 to 2014 (+4.1% per year [3.6-4.7]) to 2014 to 2019 (+9.1% per year [8.1-10.1]). Rates of PTD and LBW increased significantly when co-occurring in the same pregnancy with HDP. Absolute rates of APOs were higher in non-Hispanic Black individuals and in older age groups. However, similar relative increases were seen across all age,racial and ethnic groups. Conclusions In aggregate, APOs now complicate nearly 1 in 5 live births. Incidence of HDP has increased significantly between 2007 and 2019 and contributed to the reversal of favorable trends in PTD and LBW. Similar patterns were observed in all age groups, suggesting that increasing maternal age at pregnancy does not account for these trends. Black-White disparities persisted throughout the study period.

Association of State Medicaid Expansion Status With Hypertensive Disorders of Pregnancy in a Singleton First Live Birth.

BACKGROUND: Incidence of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy is increasing in the United States. Early detection is important to prevent adverse maternal and offspring outcomes. This ecological study evaluated changes in rates of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy among states that expanded Medicaid compared with states that did not expand Medicaid. METHODS: A quasi-experimental analysis using difference-in-differences models compared changes in rates of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy in Medicaid expansion states relative to non-Medicaid expansion states from 2012 to 2019. Maternal data from singleton first live births to individuals aged 20 to 39 years were obtained from the National Center for Health Statistics. Outcomes of interest included age-adjusted rates of de novo hypertension in pregnancy (gestational hypertension or preeclampsia) and prepregnancy hypertension. RESULTS: Data from 7 764 965 individuals with a singleton first live birth were analyzed from 17 states and Washington, DC that expanded Medicaid and 15 states that did not. Rates of de novo hypertension in pregnancy increased over the study period in both expansion (54.34 [95% CI, 48.25-60.43] to 74.87 [95% CI, 71.20-78.55] per 1000 births) and nonexpansion states (68.32 [95% CI, 61.02-75.62] to 84.79 [95% CI, 80.67-88.91] per 1000 births). In adjusted difference-in-differences analyses, expansion status was associated with a greater increase in rates of de novo hypertension in pregnancy (difference-in-differences coefficient, +8.18 [95% CI, 4.00-12.36] per 1000 live births) but a decline in rates of de novo hypertension in pregnancy complicated by low birth weight (-7.20 [95% CI, -13.71 to -0.70] per 1000 births with hypertensive disorders of pregnancy). In adjusted difference-in-differences analyses, there were no significant changes in rates of prepregnancy hypertension in expansion relative to nonexpansion states (+1.13 [95% CI, -0.09 to +2.35] per 1000 live births). CONCLUSIONS: Between 2012 and 2019, states that expanded Medicaid had a significantly greater increase in rates of de novo hypertension, with some evidence of better outcomes among those with de novo hypertension diagnosed in pregnancy.

Trends in prepregnancy cardiovascular health in the United States, 2011-2019.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate contemporary patterns in prepregnancy cardiovascular health (CVH) in the United States (US). METHODS: We conducted a serial, cross-sectional study of National Center for Health Statistics Natality Data representing all live births in the US from 2011 to 2019. We assigned 1 point for each of four ideal prepregnancy metrics (nonsmoking and ideal body mass index [18.5-24.9 kg/m2] provided by maternal self-report, and absence of hypertension and diabetes ascertained by the healthcare professional at delivery) to construct a prepregnancy clinical CVH score ranging from 0 to 4. We described the distribution of prepregnancy CVH, overall and stratified by self-reported race/ethnicity, age, insurance status, and receipt of the Women, Infants, and Children program (WIC) for supplemental nutrition. We examined trends by calculating average annual percent changes (AAPCs) in optimal prepregnancy CVH (score of 4). RESULTS: Of 31,643,982 live births analyzed between 2011 and 2019, 53.6% were to non-Hispanic White, 14.5% non-Hispanic Black, 23.3% Hispanic, and 6.6% non-Hispanic Asian women. The mean age (SD) was 28.5 (5.8) years. The prevalence (per 100 live births) of optimal prepregnancy CVH score of 4 declined from 42.1 to 37.7 from 2011 to 2019, with an AAPC (95% CI) of -1.4% per year (-1.3,-1.5). While the relative decline was observed across all race/ethnicity, insurance, and WIC subgroups, significant disparities persisted by race, insurance status, and receipt of WIC. In 2019, non-Hispanic Black women (28.7 per 100 live births), those on Medicaid (30.4), and those receiving WIC (29.1) had the lowest prevalence of optimal CVH. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, less than half of pregnant women had optimal prepregnancy CVH, and optimal prepregnancy CVH declined in each race/ethnicity, age, insurance, and WIC subgroup between 2011-2019 in the US. However, there were persistent disparities by race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status.

Trends in Gestational Diabetes at First Live Birth by Race and Ethnicity in the US, 2011-2019.

Importance: Gestational diabetes is associated with adverse maternal and offspring outcomes. Objective: To determine whether rates of gestational diabetes among individuals at first live birth changed from 2011 to 2019 and how these rates differ by race and ethnicity in the US. Design, Setting, and Participants: Serial cross-sectional analysis using National Center for Health Statistics data for 12 610 235 individuals aged 15 to 44 years with singleton first live births from 2011 to 2019 in the US. Exposures: Gestational diabetes data stratified by the following race and ethnicity groups: Hispanic/Latina (including Central and South American, Cuban, Mexican, and Puerto Rican); non-Hispanic Asian/Pacific Islander (including Asian Indian, Chinese, Filipina, Japanese, Korean, and Vietnamese); non-Hispanic Black; and non-Hispanic White. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcomes were age-standardized rates of gestational diabetes (per 1000 live births) and respective mean annual percent change and rate ratios (RRs) of gestational diabetes in non-Hispanic Asian/Pacific Islander (overall and in subgroups), non-Hispanic Black, and Hispanic/Latina (overall and in subgroups) individuals relative to non-Hispanic White individuals (referent group). Results: Among the 12 610 235 included individuals (mean [SD] age, 26.3 [5.8] years), the overall age-standardized gestational diabetes rate significantly increased from 47.6 (95% CI, 47.1-48.0) to 63.5 (95% CI, 63.1-64.0) per 1000 live births from 2011 to 2019, a mean annual percent change of 3.7% (95% CI, 2.8%-4.6%) per year. Of the 12 610 235 participants, 21% were Hispanic/Latina (2019 gestational diabetes rate, 66.6 [95% CI, 65.6-67.7]; RR, 1.15 [95% CI, 1.13-1.18]), 8% were non-Hispanic Asian/Pacific Islander (2019 gestational diabetes rate, 102.7 [95% CI, 100.7-104.7]; RR, 1.78 [95% CI, 1.74-1.82]), 14% were non-Hispanic Black (2019 gestational diabetes rate, 55.7 [95% CI, 54.5-57.0]; RR, 0.97 [95% CI, 0.94-0.99]), and 56% were non-Hispanic White (2019 gestational diabetes rate, 57.7 [95% CI, 57.2-58.3]; referent group). Gestational diabetes rates were highest in Asian Indian participants (2019 gestational diabetes rate, 129.1 [95% CI, 100.7-104.7]; RR, 2.24 [95% CI, 2.15-2.33]). Among Hispanic/Latina participants, gestational diabetes rates were highest among Puerto Rican individuals (2019 gestational diabetes rate, 75.8 [95% CI, 71.8-79.9]; RR, 1.31 [95% CI, 1.24-1.39]). Gestational diabetes rates increased among all race and ethnicity subgroups and across all age groups. Conclusions and Relevance: Among individuals with a singleton first live birth in the US from 2011 to 2019, rates of gestational diabetes increased across all racial and ethnic subgroups. Differences in absolute gestational diabetes rates were observed across race and ethnicity subgroups.

Trends in Prepregnancy Obesity and Association With Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes in the United States, 2013 to 2018.

Background The prevalence of obesity in the population has increased in parallel with increasing rates of adverse pregnancy outcomes (APOs). Quantifying contemporary trends in prepregnancy obesity and associations with interrelated APOs (preterm birth, low birth weight, and pregnancy-associated hypertension) together and individually can inform prevention strategies to optimize cardiometabolic health in women and offspring. Methods and Results We performed a serial, cross-sectional study using National Center for Health Statistics birth certificate data including women aged 15 to 44 years with live singleton births between 2013 and 2018, stratified by race/ethnicity (non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, and non-Hispanic Asian). We quantified the annual prevalence of prepregnancy obesity (body mass index ≥30.0 kg/m2; body mass index ≥27.5 kg/m2 if non-Hispanic Asian). We then estimated adjusted associations using multivariable logistic regression (odds ratios and population attributable fractions) for obesity-related APOs compared with normal body mass index (18.5-24.9 kg/m2; 18.5-22.9 kg/m2 if non-Hispanic Asian). Among 20 139 891 women, the prevalence of prepregnancy obesity increased between 2013 and 2018: non-Hispanic White (21.6%-24.8%), non-Hispanic Black (32.5%-36.2%), Hispanic (26.0%-30.5%), and non-Hispanic Asian (15.3%-18.6%) women (P-trend < 0.001 for all). Adjusted odds ratios (95% CI) for APOs associated with obesity increased between 2013 and 2018, and by 2018, ranged from 1.27 (1.25-1.29) in non-Hispanic Black to 1.94 (1.92-1.96) in non-Hispanic White women. Obesity was most strongly associated with pregnancy-associated hypertension and inconsistently associated with preterm birth and low birth weight. Population attributable fractions of obesity-related APOs increased over the study period: non-Hispanic White (10.6%-14.7%), non-Hispanic Black (3.7%-6.9%), Hispanic (7.0%-10.4%), and non-Hispanic Asian (7.4%-9.7%) women (P-trend < 0.01 for all). Conclusions The prevalence of prepregnancy obesity and burden of obesity-related APOs have increased, driven primarily by pregnancy-associated hypertension, and vary across racial/ethnic subgroups.

Heart Failure Risk Distribution and Trends in the United States Population, NHANES 1999-2016.

BACKGROUND: Implementation of effective preventive interventions requires identification of high-risk individuals. We sought to define the distribution and trends of heart failure risk in the US population. METHODS: We calculated 10-year predicted heart failure risk among a representative sample of US adults aged 30-79 years, without baseline cardiovascular disease, from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) 1999-2016. We used the published Pooled Cohort Equations to Prevent Heart Failure (PCP-HF) model, which integrates demographic and risk factor data, to estimate 10-year heart failure risk. Participants were stratified by NHANES cycle, sex, age, and race/ethnicity and by 10-year heart failure risk, defined as low (<1%), intermediate (1% to <5%), and high (≥5%). RESULTS: From 1999-2000 to 2015-2016, mean predicted 10-year heart failure risk increased significantly from 2.0% to 3.0% (P < .05) in the population, most notably among non-Hispanic black (2.1% to 3.7%) and non-Hispanic white (2.4% to 3.6%) men. In 2013-2016, 17.6% of the studied population was at high predicted 10-year heart failure risk. The prevalence of high predicted heart failure risk was highest among non-Hispanic black men (23.1%), followed by non-Hispanic white men (19.2%) and non-Hispanic white women (17.9%). DISCUSSION: Mean population risk of heart failure increased significantly from 1999-2016. A substantial proportion of US adults are at high 10-year heart failure risk (≥5%), particularly non-Hispanic black men. These data underscore the importance of identifiying individuals at increased heart failure risk for targeted prevention measures to reduce the future burden of heart failure.

Predictive Accuracy of Heart Failure-Specific Risk Equations in an Electronic Health Record-Based Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Guidelines recommend identification of individuals at risk for heart failure (HF). However, implementation of risk-based prevention strategies requires validation of HF-specific risk scores in diverse, real-world cohorts. Therefore, our objective was to assess the predictive accuracy of the Pooled Cohort Equations to Prevent HF within a primary prevention cohort derived from the electronic health record. METHODS: We retrospectively identified patients between the ages of 30 to 79 years in a multi-center integrated healthcare system, free of cardiovascular disease, with available data on HF risk factors, and at least 5 years of follow-up. We applied the Pooled Cohort Equations to Prevent HF tool to calculate sex and race-specific 5-year HF risk estimates. Incident HF was defined by the International Classification of Diseases codes. We assessed model discrimination and calibration, comparing predicted and observed rates for incident HF. RESULTS: Among 31 256 eligible adults, mean age was 51.4 years, 57% were women and 11% Black. Incident HF occurred in 568 patients (1.8%) over 5-year follow-up. The modified Pooled Cohort Equations to Prevent HF model for 5-year risk prediction of HF had excellent discrimination in White men (C-statistic 0.82 [95% CI, 0.79-0.86]) and women (0.82 [0.78-0.87]) and adequate discrimination in Black men (0.69 [0.60-0.78]) and women (0.69 [0.52-0.76]). Calibration was fair in all race-sex subgroups (χ2<20). CONCLUSIONS: A novel sex- and race-specific risk score predicts incident HF in a real-world, electronic health record-based cohort. Integration of HF risk into the electronic health record may allow for risk-based discussion, enhanced surveillance, and targeted preventive interventions to reduce the public health burden of HF.

The Role of Sex-Specific Risk Factors in the Risk Assessment of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease for Primary Prevention in Women.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Robust evidence is emerging regarding the contribution of sex-specific risk factors to a woman's unique risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). This review summarizes the available literature regarding the association of sex-specific risk factors and ASCVD in women. RECENT FINDINGS: The American College of Cardiology and American Heart Association Guidelines recommend estimation of 10-year risk of a first ASCVD event using the 2013 Pooled Cohort Equations. This can be further personalized by identifying sex-specific risk factors present in a woman's history. There are multiple vulnerable periods across a woman's life course that are associated with increased risk of ASCVD. Risk factors across the reproductive life course that have been shown to correlate with higher risk for future ASCVD include early menarche, adverse pregnancy outcomes (such as pre-eclampsia or preterm birth), and early natural or surgical menopause. In addition, certain conditions that are more common among women, including autoimmune diseases, history of chest irradiation, and certain chemotherapies, also need to be considered. Finally, risk assessment can be refined with subclinical disease imaging (coronary calcium score) if there remains uncertainty about clinical management with lipid-lowering therapies for primary prevention after inclusion of these risk enhancers. Risk assessment for ASCVD in women requires a personalized approach that incorporates sex-specific risk factors to guide primary prevention measures, such as lipid-lowering therapies. Coronary calcium score imaging may also help further refine risk assessment, but no clinical trials conducted to date have addressed this question.