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1.
Open Forum Infect Dis ; 9(7): ofac192, 2022 Jul.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35791353

RESUMO

Background: The global effort to vaccinate people against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) during an ongoing pandemic has raised questions about how vaccine breakthrough infections compare with infections in immunologically naive individuals and the potential for vaccinated individuals to transmit the virus. Methods: We examined viral dynamics and infectious virus shedding through daily longitudinal sampling in 23 adults infected with SARS-CoV-2 at varying stages of vaccination, including 6 fully vaccinated individuals. Results: The durations of both infectious virus shedding and symptoms were significantly reduced in vaccinated individuals compared with unvaccinated individuals. We also observed that breakthrough infections are associated with strong tissue compartmentalization and are only detectable in saliva in some cases. Conclusions: Vaccination shortens the duration of time of high transmission potential, minimizes symptom duration, and may restrict tissue dissemination.

3.
Transbound Emerg Dis ; 69(5): e3060-e3075, 2022 Sep.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35839756

RESUMO

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has a worldwide distribution in humans and many other mammalian species. In late September 2021, 12 animals maintained by the Chicago Zoological Society's Brookfield Zoo were observed with variable clinical signs. The Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 was detected in faeces and nasal swabs by qRT-PCR, including the first detection in animals from the families Procyonidae and Viverridae. Test positivity rate was 12.5% for 35 animals tested. All animals had been vaccinated with at least one dose of a recombinant vaccine designed for animals and all recovered with variable supportive treatment. Sequence analysis showed that six zoo animal strains were closely correlated with 18 human SARS-CoV-2 strains, suggestive of potential human-to-animal transmission events. This report documents the expanding host range of COVID-19 during the ongoing pandemic.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Animais , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/veterinária , Surtos de Doenças , Humanos , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , SARS-CoV-2/genética , Viverridae
4.
Nat Commun ; 13(1): 3207, 2022 06 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35680861

RESUMO

In Fall 2020, universities saw extensive transmission of SARS-CoV-2 among their populations, threatening health of the university and surrounding communities, and viability of in-person instruction. Here we report a case study at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, where a multimodal "SHIELD: Target, Test, and Tell" program, with other non-pharmaceutical interventions, was employed to keep classrooms and laboratories open. The program included epidemiological modeling and surveillance, fast/frequent testing using a novel low-cost and scalable saliva-based RT-qPCR assay for SARS-CoV-2 that bypasses RNA extraction, called covidSHIELD, and digital tools for communication and compliance. In Fall 2020, we performed >1,000,000 covidSHIELD tests, positivity rates remained low, we had zero COVID-19-related hospitalizations or deaths amongst our university community, and mortality in the surrounding Champaign County was reduced more than 4-fold relative to expected. This case study shows that fast/frequent testing and other interventions mitigated transmission of SARS-CoV-2 at a large public university.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Teste para COVID-19 , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2/genética , Sensibilidade e Especificidade , Universidades
5.
Transbound Emerg Dis ; 69(5): e3346-e3351, 2022 Sep.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35698174

RESUMO

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is one of seven coronaviruses known to infect humans. Different from other concerned coronavirus and influenza viruses, SARS-CoV-2 has a higher basic reproduction number and thus transmits more efficiently among hosts. Testing animals for SARS-CoV-2 may help decipher virus reservoirs, transmission and pathogenesis. Here, we report the first detection of SARS-CoV-2 in three snow leopards (Panthera uncia) in a zoo in Kentucky in 2020, the first year of the pandemic. Sequence analysis revealed that snow leopard SARS-CoV-2 strains were non-variant B.1.2 lineage and closely correlated with human strains. One snow leopard shed SARS-CoV-2 in faeces up to 4 weeks. Based on clinical signs and viral shedding periods and levels in the three snow leopards, animal-to-animal transmission events could not be excluded. Further testing of SARS-CoV-2 in animals is needed.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Panthera , Animais , COVID-19/veterinária , Humanos , Pandemias , SARS-CoV-2
6.
Nat Microbiol ; 7(5): 640-652, 2022 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35484231

RESUMO

The dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 replication and shedding in humans remain poorly understood. We captured the dynamics of infectious virus and viral RNA shedding during acute infection through daily longitudinal sampling of 60 individuals for up to 14 days. By fitting mechanistic models, we directly estimated viral expansion and clearance rates and overall infectiousness for each individual. Significant person-to-person variation in infectious virus shedding suggests that individual-level heterogeneity in viral dynamics contributes to 'superspreading'. Viral genome loads often peaked days earlier in saliva than in nasal swabs, indicating strong tissue compartmentalization and suggesting that saliva may serve as a superior sampling site for early detection of infection. Viral loads and clearance kinetics of Alpha (B.1.1.7) and previously circulating non-variant-of-concern viruses were mostly indistinguishable, indicating that the enhanced transmissibility of this variant cannot be explained simply by higher viral loads or delayed clearance. These results provide a high-resolution portrait of SARS-CoV-2 infection dynamics and implicate individual-level heterogeneity in infectiousness in superspreading.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Humanos , Carga Viral , Eliminação de Partículas Virais
7.
Transbound Emerg Dis ; 69(3): 1649-1655, 2022 May.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33788413

RESUMO

Kobuviruses are known to infect the gastrointestinal tract of different animal species. Since its discovery in 2003, bovine kobuvirus (BKV) has been identified in faecal samples from diarrhoeic cattle in many countries, but only recently in North America. Although its possible role as an agent of calf diarrhoea remains to be determined, evidence is mounting. Our study reports for the first time the detection of BKV in faecal samples from diarrhoeic calves raised in Quebec, Canada. BKV was more commonly identified than eight known and common enteric calf pathogens. Further sequence analysis revealed that Canada BKV strain 1,043,507 was more closely correlated with the US BKV IL35164 strain than other BKV strains with complete genome. Continued surveillance and genomic characterization are needed to monitor BKV in the cattle around the world.


Assuntos
Doenças dos Bovinos , Kobuvirus , Infecções por Picornaviridae , Animais , Bovinos , Doenças dos Bovinos/epidemiologia , Diarreia/epidemiologia , Diarreia/veterinária , Fezes , Kobuvirus/genética , Filogenia , Infecções por Picornaviridae/epidemiologia , Infecções por Picornaviridae/veterinária , Quebeque/epidemiologia
8.
Transbound Emerg Dis ; 69(5): 3056-3065, 2022 Sep.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34427399

RESUMO

Bovine coronavirus (BCoV) is associated with three distinct clinical syndromes in cattle that is, neonatal diarrhoea, haemorrhagic diarrhoea in adults (the so-called winter dysentery syndrome, WD) and respiratory infections in cattle of different ages. In addition, bovine-like CoVs have been detected in various species including domestic and wild ruminants. However, bovine-like CoVs have not been reported so far in odd-toed ungulates. We describe an outbreak of WD associated with a bovine-like CoV affecting several captive wild ungulates, including Indonesian tapirs (Acrocodia indica) an odd-toed ungulate species (Perissodactyla) which, with even-toed ungulates species (Artiodactyla) form the clade Euungulata. Genomic characterization of the CoV revealed that it was closely related to BCoVs previously reported in America. This case illustrates the adaptability of bovine-like CoVs to new species and the necessity of continued surveillance of bovine-like CoVs in various species.


Assuntos
Doenças dos Bovinos , Infecções por Coronavirus , Coronavirus Bovino , Coronavirus , Disenteria , Animais , Bovinos , Doenças dos Bovinos/epidemiologia , Coronavirus/genética , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/veterinária , Coronavirus Bovino/genética , Diarreia/epidemiologia , Diarreia/veterinária , Surtos de Doenças/veterinária , Disenteria/epidemiologia , Disenteria/veterinária , Genômica , Indonésia/epidemiologia , Perissodáctilos , Filogenia , Ruminantes
9.
Transbound Emerg Dis ; 69(5): 3109-3114, 2022 Sep.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34761864

RESUMO

The Boosepivirus is a newly proposed genus in the family Picornaviridae in 2020. Bovine boosepiviruses (BooV) were initially identified in diarrheal cattle through deep sequencing in Japan in 2009. These diarrheal cases were either BooV alone positive or coinfection with other viruses, suggesting that BooV is an enteric pathogen. In 2019, through metagenomic sequencing, a US BooV strain IL41203-19 was identified in the fecal sample of a 10-day old calf with diarrhea and characterized in the present study. Genomic characterization revealed that IL41203-19 share the highest identities with the Japan BooV strain (Bo-12-7/2009/JPN) at both the complete nucleotide and amino acid levels, belonging to Boosepivirus B species in the genus Boosepivirus. Further real-time RT-PCR testing of 84 clinical samples from the diarrheal testing panel showed that five were positive for BooV and were all coinfected with one to four other enteric pathogens. Our data provided further evidence that BooV might contribute to cattle diarrhea observed in different states. Future studies on epidemiology and pathogenesis of bovine BooV are warranted.


Assuntos
Doenças dos Bovinos , Picornaviridae , Aminoácidos , Animais , Bovinos , Diarreia/diagnóstico , Diarreia/epidemiologia , Diarreia/veterinária , Fezes , Metagenômica , Nucleotídeos , Filogenia , Picornaviridae/genética , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia
10.
medRxiv ; 2021 Sep 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34494028

RESUMO

The global effort to vaccinate people against SARS-CoV-2 in the midst of an ongoing pandemic has raised questions about the nature of vaccine breakthrough infections and the potential for vaccinated individuals to transmit the virus. These questions have become even more urgent as new variants of concern with enhanced transmissibility, such as Delta, continue to emerge. To shed light on how vaccine breakthrough infections compare with infections in immunologically naive individuals, we examined viral dynamics and infectious virus shedding through daily longitudinal sampling in a small cohort of adults infected with SARS-CoV-2 at varying stages of vaccination. The durations of both infectious virus shedding and symptoms were significantly reduced in vaccinated individuals compared with unvaccinated individuals. We also observed that breakthrough infections are associated with strong tissue compartmentalization and are only detectable in saliva in some cases. These data indicate that vaccination shortens the duration of time of high transmission potential, minimizes symptom duration, and may restrict tissue dissemination.

11.
medRxiv ; 2021 Jul 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34282424

RESUMO

The dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 replication and shedding in humans remain poorly understood. We captured the dynamics of infectious virus and viral RNA shedding during acute infection through daily longitudinal sampling of 60 individuals for up to 14 days. By fitting mechanistic models, we directly estimate viral reproduction and clearance rates, and overall infectiousness for each individual. Significant person-to-person variation in infectious virus shedding suggests that individual-level heterogeneity in viral dynamics contributes to superspreading. Viral genome load often peaked days earlier in saliva than in nasal swabs, indicating strong compartmentalization and suggesting that saliva may serve as a superior sampling site for early detection of infection. Viral loads and clearance kinetics of B.1.1.7 and non-B.1.1.7 viruses in nasal swabs were indistinguishable, however B.1.1.7 exhibited a significantly slower pre-peak growth rate in saliva. These results provide a high-resolution portrait of SARS-CoV-2 infection dynamics and implicate individual-level heterogeneity in infectiousness in superspreading.

12.
J Infect Dis ; 224(6): 976-982, 2021 09 17.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34191025

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Serial screening is critical for restricting spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by facilitating timely identification of infected individuals to interrupt transmission. Variation in sensitivity of different diagnostic tests at different stages of infection has not been well documented. METHODS: In a longitudinal study of 43 adults newly infected with SARS-CoV-2, all provided daily saliva and nasal swabs for quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR), Quidel SARS Sofia antigen fluorescent immunoassay (FIA), and live virus culture. RESULTS: Both RT-qPCR and Quidel SARS Sofia antigen FIA peaked in sensitivity during the period in which live virus was detected in nasal swabs, but sensitivity of RT-qPCR tests rose more rapidly prior to this period. We also found that serial testing multiple times per week increases the sensitivity of antigen tests. CONCLUSIONS: RT-qPCR tests are more effective than antigen tests at identifying infected individuals prior to or early during the infectious period and thus for minimizing forward transmission (given timely results reporting). All tests showed >98% sensitivity for identifying infected individuals if used at least every 3 days. Daily screening using antigen tests can achieve approximately 90% sensitivity for identifying infected individuals while they are viral culture positive.


Assuntos
Teste para COVID-19 , COVID-19/diagnóstico , Testes Diagnósticos de Rotina , SARS-CoV-2/isolamento & purificação , Adulto , Idoso , Animais , Antígenos Virais/análise , Chlorocebus aethiops , Feminino , Humanos , Estudos Longitudinais , Masculino , Programas de Rastreamento , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Reação em Cadeia da Polimerase em Tempo Real , Saliva , Sensibilidade e Especificidade , Células Vero , Adulto Jovem
13.
Vaccines (Basel) ; 8(4)2020 Nov 16.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33207583

RESUMO

To optimize the public health response to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), we must first understand the antibody response to individual proteins on the severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and the antibody's cross reactivity to other coronaviruses. Using a panel of 37 convalescent COVID-19 human serum samples, we showed that the magnitude and specificity of responses varied across individuals, independent of their reactivity to seasonal human coronaviruses (HCoVs). These data suggest that COVID-19 vaccines will elicit primary humoral immune responses in naïve individuals and variable responses in those previously exposed to SARS-CoV-2. Unlike the limited cross-coronavirus reactivities in humans, serum samples from 96 dogs and 10 cats showed SARS-CoV-2 protein-specific responses focused on non-S1 proteins. The correlation of this response with those to other coronaviruses suggests that the antibodies are cross-reactive and generated to endemic viruses within these hosts, which must be considered in seroepidemiologic studies. We conclude that substantial variation in antibody generation against coronavirus proteins will influence interpretations of serologic data in the clinical and veterinary settings.

14.
mBio ; 11(5)2020 10 13.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33051368

RESUMO

Despite numerous barriers to transmission, zoonoses are the major cause of emerging infectious diseases in humans. Among these, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), and ebolaviruses have killed thousands; the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) has killed millions. Zoonoses and human-to-animal cross-species transmission are driven by human actions and have important management, conservation, and public health implications. The current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, which presumably originated from an animal reservoir, has killed more than half a million people around the world and cases continue to rise. In March 2020, New York City was a global epicenter for SARS-CoV-2 infections. During this time, four tigers and three lions at the Bronx Zoo, NY, developed mild, abnormal respiratory signs. We detected SARS-CoV-2 RNA in respiratory secretions and/or feces from all seven animals, live virus in three, and colocalized viral RNA with cellular damage in one. We produced nine whole SARS-CoV-2 genomes from the animals and keepers and identified different SARS-CoV-2 genotypes in the tigers and lions. Epidemiologic and genomic data indicated human-to-tiger transmission. These were the first confirmed cases of natural SARS-CoV-2 animal infections in the United States and the first in nondomestic species in the world. We highlight disease transmission at a nontraditional interface and provide information that contributes to understanding SARS-CoV-2 transmission across species.IMPORTANCE The human-animal-environment interface of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is an important aspect of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic that requires robust One Health-based investigations. Despite this, few reports describe natural infections in animals or directly link them to human infections using genomic data. In the present study, we describe the first cases of natural SARS-CoV-2 infection in tigers and lions in the United States and provide epidemiological and genetic evidence for human-to-animal transmission of the virus. Our data show that tigers and lions were infected with different genotypes of SARS-CoV-2, indicating two independent transmission events to the animals. Importantly, infected animals shed infectious virus in respiratory secretions and feces. A better understanding of the susceptibility of animal species to SARS-CoV-2 may help to elucidate transmission mechanisms and identify potential reservoirs and sources of infection that are important in both animal and human health.


Assuntos
Animais de Zoológico/virologia , Betacoronavirus/fisiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/transmissão , Infecções por Coronavirus/veterinária , Pandemias/veterinária , Panthera/virologia , Pneumonia Viral/transmissão , Pneumonia Viral/veterinária , Animais , Betacoronavirus/classificação , Betacoronavirus/genética , Betacoronavirus/isolamento & purificação , COVID-19 , Infecções por Coronavirus/diagnóstico , Infecções por Coronavirus/virologia , Genoma Viral/genética , Haplótipos , Humanos , Cidade de Nova Iorque/epidemiologia , Saúde Única , Filogenia , Pneumonia Viral/diagnóstico , Pneumonia Viral/virologia , SARS-CoV-2 , Zoonoses/epidemiologia , Zoonoses/transmissão , Zoonoses/virologia
15.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 26(7): 1610-1612, 2020 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32568058

RESUMO

We characterized novel coronaviruses detected in US bottlenose dolphins (BdCoVs) with diarrhea. These viruses are closely related to the other 2 known cetacean coronaviruses, Hong Kong BdCoV and beluga whale CoV. A deletion in the spike gene and insertions in the membrane gene and untranslated regions were found in US BdCoVs (unrelated to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2).


Assuntos
Golfinho Nariz-de-Garrafa/virologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/veterinária , Diarreia/veterinária , Gammacoronavirus/classificação , Gammacoronavirus/genética , Animais , Infecções por Coronavirus/virologia , Proteínas M de Coronavírus , Diarreia/virologia , Gammacoronavirus/isolamento & purificação , Gammacoronavirus/fisiologia , Genes Virais , Genoma Viral , Mutação , Filogenia , Deleção de Sequência , Glicoproteína da Espícula de Coronavírus/genética , Proteínas da Matriz Viral/genética
16.
Microbiol Resour Announc ; 9(22)2020 May 28.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32467283

RESUMO

This report describes the identification and characterization of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in a Malayan tiger in a U.S. zoo.

17.
Front Microbiol ; 11: 457, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32265882

RESUMO

Leptospirosis is recognized as the most globally widespread reemerging zoonosis and represents a serious threat for both human and animal health. Indeed, leptospirosis is linked to more than 60,000 human deaths per year and to incalculable economic burden as consequence of medical treatment costs and livestock loss. The increasing number of reports from species of pathogenic Leptospira spp. group II causing disease in both humans and animals constitutes an additional concern to the complex epidemiology of this zoonotic agent. Diagnostic methods based on qPCR have improved the diagnosis of Leptospira spp. in terms of cost, time, and reliability, but most of the validated assays fail to detect species from the pathogenic group II. Hence, the current study was aimed to develop and validate a novel multiplex qPCR to enable the specific and selective detection of the whole group of infectious Leptospira spp., including both pathogenic groups I and II and moreover, selectively discriminate between them. To fit the "fitness of purpose" for the specific detection of infectious Leptospira spp. and further discrimination between both pathogenic groups three target regions on the 16S RNA gene were selected. These targets facilitated a broad and selective spectrum for the detection of all infectious Leptospira spp. with the exclusion of all saprophytic groups and the novel clade of environmental Leptospira spp. The analytical sensitivity (ASe) showed by the new assay also enables a wide window of detection for the agent at different stages of infection since the assay was able to efficiently detect at 95% of confidence ∼5 leptospires/reaction. From the evaluation of the analytical specificity (ASp) by in silico and in vitro approaches, it was congruently revealed that the primers and probes selected only recognized the specific targets for which the assay was intended. Bayesian latent class analysis of performance of the new assay on 684 clinical samples showed values of diagnostic sensitivity of 99.8% and diagnostic specificity of 100%. Thus, from the evaluation of the analytical and diagnostic parameters, the new multiplex qPCR assay is a reliable method for the diagnosis of Leptospira spp.

18.
Transbound Emerg Dis ; 67(1): 18-28, 2020 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31461567

RESUMO

Porcine sapoviruses (SaVs) are genetically diverse and widely distributed in pig-producing countries. Eight genogroups of porcine SaV have been identified, and genogroup III is the predominant type. Most of the eight genogroups of porcine SaV are circulating in the United States. In the present study, we report detection of porcine SaVs in pigs at different ages with clinical diarrhoea using next-generation sequencing and genetic characterization. All seven cases have porcine SaV GIII strains detected and one pooled case was found to have a porcine SaV GVI strain IA27912-B-2018. Sequence analysis showed that seven GIII isolates were genetically divergent and formed four different lineages on the trees of complete genome, RdRP, VP1 and VP2. In addition, these seven GIII isolates had three different deletion/insertion patterns in an identified variable region close to the 3' end of VP2. The GVI strain IA27912-B-2018 was closely related to strains previously detected in the United States and Japan. A 3-nt deletion in VP1 region of GVI IA27912-B-2018 was identified. Our study showed that genetically divergent SaVs of different genogroups are co-circulating in pigs in the United States. Future studies comparing the virulence of these different genogroups in pigs are needed to better understand this virus and to determine if surveillance and vaccine development are needed to monitor and control porcine SaVs.


Assuntos
Infecções por Caliciviridae/veterinária , Diarreia/veterinária , Variação Genética , Sapovirus/genética , Doenças dos Suínos/virologia , Animais , Infecções por Caliciviridae/epidemiologia , Infecções por Caliciviridae/virologia , Diarreia/epidemiologia , Diarreia/virologia , Fezes/virologia , Feminino , Genótipo , Sequenciamento de Nucleotídeos em Larga Escala/veterinária , Filogenia , Sapovirus/isolamento & purificação , Suínos , Doenças dos Suínos/epidemiologia , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia
19.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 26(1): 176-178, 2020 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31855534

RESUMO

We detected bovine kobuvirus (BKV) in calves with diarrhea in the United States. The strain identified is related genetically to BKVs detected in other countries. Histopathologic findings also confirmed viral infection in 2 BKV cases. Our data show BKV is a potential causative agent for diarrhea in calves.


Assuntos
Doenças dos Bovinos/virologia , Diarreia/veterinária , Kobuvirus , Infecções por Picornaviridae/veterinária , Animais , Animais Recém-Nascidos/virologia , Bovinos , Doenças dos Bovinos/epidemiologia , Doenças dos Bovinos/patologia , Diarreia/epidemiologia , Diarreia/virologia , Kobuvirus/genética , Filogenia , Infecções por Picornaviridae/epidemiologia , Infecções por Picornaviridae/patologia , Infecções por Picornaviridae/virologia , Análise de Sequência de DNA , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia
20.
Sci Rep ; 9(1): 10130, 2019 07 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31300735

RESUMO

Although population viability analysis (PVA) can be an important tool for strengthening endangered species recovery efforts, the extent to which such analyses remain embedded in the social process of recovery planning is often unrecognized. We analyzed two recovery plans for the Mexican wolf that were developed using similar data and methods but arrived at contrasting conclusions as to appropriate recovery goals or criteria. We found that approximately half of the contrast arose from uncertainty regarding biological data, with the remainder divided between policy-related decisions and mixed biological-policy factors. Contrasts arose from both differences in input parameter values and how parameter uncertainty informed the level of precaution embodied in resulting criteria. Policy-related uncertainty originated from contrasts in thresholds for acceptable risk and disagreement as to how to define endangered species recovery. Rather than turning to PVA to produce politically acceptable definitions of recovery that appear science-based, agencies should clarify the nexus between science and policy elements in their decision processes. The limitations we identify in endangered-species policy and how PVAs are conducted as part of recovery planning must be addressed if PVAs are to fulfill their potential to increase the odds of successful conservation outcomes.


Assuntos
Conservação dos Recursos Naturais/métodos , Espécies em Perigo de Extinção , Lobos , Animais , Feminino , Fertilidade , Variação Genética , Endogamia , Masculino , México , Mortalidade , Técnicas de Planejamento , Densidade Demográfica , Dinâmica Populacional , Opinião Pública , Processos Estocásticos , Incerteza
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