Continental-scale evaluation of downy birch pollen production: Estimating the impacts of global change.

The high prevalence of hay fever in Europe has raised concerns about the implications of climate change-induced higher temperatures on pollen production. Our study focuses on downy birch pollen production across Europe by analyzing 456 catkins during 2019-2021 in 37 International Phenological Gardens (IPG) spanning a large geographic gradient. As IPGs rely on genetically identical plants, we were able to reduce the effects of genetic variability. We studied the potential association with masting behavior and three model specifications based on mean and quantile regression to assess the impact of meteorology (e.g., temperature and precipitation) and atmospheric gases (e.g., ozone (O3) and carbon-dioxide (CO2)) on pollen and catkin production, while controlling for tree age approximated by stem circumference. The results revealed a substantial geographic variability in mean pollen production, ranging from 1.9 to 2.5 million pollen grains per catkin. Regression analyses indicated that elevated average temperatures of the previous summer corresponded to increased pollen production, while higher O3 levels led to a reduction. Additionally, catkins number was positively influenced by preceding summer's temperature and precipitation but negatively by O3 levels. The investigation of quantile effects revealed that the impacts of mean temperature and O3 levels from the previous summer varied throughout the conditional response distribution. We found that temperature predominantly affected trees characterized by a high pollen production. We therefore suggest that birches modulate their physiological processes to optimize pollen production under varying temperature regimes. In turn, O3 levels negatively affected trees with pollen production levels exceeding the conditional median. We conclude that future temperature increase might exacerbate pollen production while other factors may modify (decrease in the case of O3 and amplify for precipitation) this effect. Our comprehensive study sheds light on potential impacts of climate change on downy birch pollen production, which is crucial for birch reproduction and human health.

How does pollen production of allergenic species differ between urban and rural environments?

Pollen production is one plant characteristic that is considered to be altered by changes in environmental conditions. In this study, we investigated pollen production of the three anemophilous species Betula pendula, Plantago lanceolata, and Dactylis glomerata along an urbanization gradient in Ingolstadt, Germany. We compared pollen production with the potential influencing factors urbanization, air temperature, and the air pollutants nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone (O3). While we measured air temperature in the field, we computed concentration levels of NO2 and O3 from a land use regression model. The results showed that average pollen production (in million pollen grains) was 1.2 ± 1.0 per catkin of Betula pendula, 5.0 ± 2.4 per inflorescence of Plantago lanceolata, and 0.7 ± 0.5 per spikelet of Dactylis glomerata. Pollen production was higher in rural compared to urban locations on average for B. pendula (+ 73%) and P. lanceolata (+ 31%), while the opposite was the case for D. glomerata (- 14%). We found that there was substantial heterogeneity across the three species with respect to the association of pollen production and environmental influences. Pollen production decreased for all species with increasing temperature and urbanization, while for increasing pollutant concentrations, decreases were observed for B. pendula, P. lanceolata, and increases for D. glomerata. Additionally, pollen production was found to be highly variable across species and within species-even at small spatial distances. Experiments should be conducted to further explore plant responses to altering environmental conditions.

Data for modeling nitrogen dioxide concentration levels across Germany.

The described secondary data provide a comprehensive basis for modeling conditional mean nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentration levels across Germany. Besides concentration levels, meta data on monitoring sites from the German air quality monitoring network, geocoordinates, altitudes, and data on land use and road lengths for different types of roads are provided. The data are based on a grid of resolution 1 × 1 km, which is also included. The underlying raw data are open access and were retrieved from different sources. The statistical software R was used for (pre-)processing the data and all codes are provided in an online repository. The data were employed for modeling mean annual NO2 concentration levels in the paper "Agglomeration and infrastructure effects in land use regression models for air pollution - Specification, estimation, and interpretations" by Fritsch and Behm (2021).