RESUMO
Shanxi Province holds an important strategic position in the overall ecological pattern of the Yellow River Basin. To investigate the changes of the ecological environment in the Shanxi section of the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2020, we selected MODIS remote sensing image data to determine the remote sensing ecological index (RSEI) based on the principal component analysis of greenness, humidity, dryness, and heat. Then, we analyzed the spatial and temporal variations of ecological quality in this region to explore the influencing factors. We further used the CA-Markov model to simulate and predict the ecological environment under different development scenarios in the Shanxi section of the Yellow River Basin in 2030. The results showed that RSEI had good applicability in the Shanxi section of the Yellow River Basin which could be used to monitor and evaluate the spatiotemporal variations in its ecological environment. From 2000 to 2020, the Shanxi section of the Yellow River Basin was dominated by low quality habitat areas, in which the ecological environment quality continued to improve from 2000 to 2010 and decreased from 2010 to 2020. The high quality habitat areas mainly located on the mountainous areas with superior natural conditions and rich biodiversity, while the low ecological quality areas were mainly in the Taiyuan Basin and the northern part of the study area, where the mining industry developed well. Climate factors were negatively correlated with ecological environment quality in the northern and central parts of the study area, and positively correlated with that in the mountainous area. Under all three development scenarios, the area of cultivated land, forest, water and construction land increased in 2030 compared to that in 2020. Compared to the natural development scenario and the cultivated land protection scenario, the ecological constraint scenario with RSEI as the limiting factor had the highest area of new forest and the lowest expansion rate of cultivated land and construction land. The results would provide a reference for land space planning and ecological environment protection in the Shanxi section of the Yellow River Basin.