Antigenic drift and subtype interference shape A(H3N2) epidemic dynamics in the United States.

Influenza viruses continually evolve new antigenic variants, through mutations in epitopes of their major surface proteins, hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA). Antigenic drift potentiates the reinfection of previously infected individuals, but the contribution of this process to variability in annual epidemics is not well understood. Here we link influenza A(H3N2) virus evolution to regional epidemic dynamics in the United States during 1997-2019. We integrate phenotypic measures of HA antigenic drift and sequence-based measures of HA and NA fitness to infer antigenic and genetic distances between viruses circulating in successive seasons. We estimate the magnitude, severity, timing, transmission rate, age-specific patterns, and subtype dominance of each regional outbreak and find that genetic distance based on broad sets of epitope sites is the strongest evolutionary predictor of A(H3N2) virus epidemiology. Increased HA and NA epitope distance between seasons correlates with larger, more intense epidemics, higher transmission, greater A(H3N2) subtype dominance, and a greater proportion of cases in adults relative to children, consistent with increased population susceptibility. Based on random forest models, A(H1N1) incidence impacts A(H3N2) epidemics to a greater extent than viral evolution, suggesting that subtype interference is a major driver of influenza A virus infection dynamics, presumably via heterosubtypic cross-immunity.

A community cluster of influenza A(H3N2) virus infection with reduced susceptibility to baloxavir due to a PA E199G substitution in Japan, February to March 2023.

A community cluster of influenza A(H3N2) caused by viruses with an E199G substitution in PA was detected in Nara, Japan, between February and March 2023. The three patients with these mutant viruses had not received antiviral treatment before specimen collection but patients in the same hospital had. The sequences of the mutant viruses were closely related, suggesting clonal spread in Nara. They showed reduced susceptibility to baloxavir in vitro; however, the clinical significance of the PA E199G substitution remains unclear.

Assessment of the frequency of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant escape from RNA-dependent RNA polymerase inhibitors and 3C-like protease inhibitors.

The emergence and spread of antiviral-resistant SARS-CoV-2 is of great concern. In this study, we evaluated the propensity of Omicron variants to escape from RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRP) inhibitors and 3C-like protease (3CLpro) inhibitors. SARS-CoV-2 Delta and Omicron variants were serially passaged in vitro in the presence of RdRP inhibitors (remdesivir and molnupiravir) and 3CLpro inhibitors (nirmatrelvir and lufotrelvir) to detect SARS-CoV-2 escape mutants. After five passages with 3CLpro inhibitors, mutant viruses that escaped from 3CLpro inhibitors emerged; however, in the presence of RdRP inhibitors all variants disappeared within 2-4 passages. Our findings suggest that the frequency of SARS-CoV-2 mutant escape from RdRP inhibitors is lower than that from 3CLpro inhibitors. We also found that Delta variants were more likely to acquire amino acid substitutions associated with resistance to 3CLpro inhibitors under the selective pressure of this drug compared with Omicron variants.

Clinical and Virologic Impacts of Respiratory Viral Co-infections in Children With Influenza.

BACKGROUND: Advances in multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) methods have enabled the simultaneous detection of multiple respiratory viruses. We aimed to estimate the clinical and virologic impacts of influenza and other respiratory virus co-infection in children. METHODS: We enrolled 38 and 35 children diagnosed with influenza and treated with baloxavir marboxil (baloxavir) and oseltamivir, respectively. We performed quantitative reverse transcription-PCR to detect and measure the levels of noninfluenza viruses from 3 nasopharyngeal swab samples collected before and on days 3 and 5 after the initial antiviral dose. We assessed patients' clinical information using questionnaires. RESULTS: One or more respiratory viruses other than influenza virus were detected in 26 (35.6%) of 73 children before antiviral treatment. The influenza virus load and clinical characteristics on the day of influenza onset were similar between children with and without virus co-infections. Of the 26 and 32 children without the emergence of the reduced baloxavir and oseltamivir susceptible variants after treatment, 8 (30.8%) and 7 (21.9%) children were dually co-infected with human rhinovirus only, respectively. The level of human rhinovirus RNA on day 0 in these children was less than -3 log 10 that of influenza virus RNA, and the human rhinovirus co-infection had no impact on the disease course either clinically or virologically. CONCLUSIONS: When multiple respiratory viruses are detected in the same patient, it is necessary to assess clinical symptoms as well as the levels of detected viruses to determine which virus contributes to the development of illness.

Impact of Reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variants in Previously Infected Hamsters.

The diversity of SARS-CoV-2 mutations raises the possibility of reinfection of individuals previously infected with earlier variants, and this risk is further increased by the emergence of the B.1.1.529 Omicron variant. In this study, we used an in vivo, hamster infection model to assess the potential for individuals previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 to be reinfected with Omicron variant and we also investigated the pathology associated with such infections. Initially, Syrian hamsters were inoculated with a lineage A, B.1.1.7, B.1.351, B.1.617.2 or a subvariant of Omicron, BA.1 strain and then reinfected with the BA.1 strain 5 weeks later. Subsequently, the impact of reinfection with Omicron subvariants (BA.1 and BA.2) in individuals previously infected with the BA.1 strain was examined. Although viral infection and replication were suppressed in both the upper and lower airways, following reinfection, virus-associated RNA was detected in the airways of most hamsters. Viral replication was more strongly suppressed in the lower respiratory tract than in the upper respiratory tract. Consistent amino acid substitutions were observed in the upper respiratory tract of infected hamsters after primary infection with variant BA.1, whereas diverse mutations appeared in hamsters reinfected with the same variant. Histopathology showed no acute pneumonia or disease enhancement in any of the reinfection groups and, in addition, the expression of inflammatory cytokines and chemokines in the airways of reinfected animals was only mildly elevated. These findings are important for understanding the risk of reinfection with new variants of SARS-CoV-2. IMPORTANCE The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants and the widespread use of COVID-19 vaccines has resulted in individual differences in immune status against SARS-CoV-2. A decay in immunity over time and the emergence of variants that partially evade the immune response can also lead to reinfection. In this study, we demonstrated that, in hamsters, immunity acquired following primary infection with previous SARS-CoV-2 variants was effective in preventing the onset of pneumonia after reinfection with the Omicron variant. However, viral infection and multiplication in the upper respiratory tract were still observed after reinfection. We also showed that more diverse nonsynonymous mutations appeared in the upper respiratory tract of reinfected hamsters that had acquired immunity from primary infection. This hamster model reveals the within-host evolution of SARS-CoV-2 and its pathology after reinfection, and provides important information for countermeasures against diversifying SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Antiviral Susceptibilities of Distinct Lineages of Influenza C and D Viruses.

The emergence and spread of antiviral-resistant influenza viruses are of great concern. To minimize the public health risk, it is important to monitor antiviral susceptibilities of influenza viruses. Analyses of the antiviral susceptibilities of influenza A and B viruses have been conducted globally; however, those of influenza C and D viruses are limited. Here, we determined the susceptibilities of influenza C viruses representing all six lineages (C/Taylor, C/Yamagata, C/Sao Paulo, C/Aichi, C/Kanagawa, and C/Mississippi) and influenza D viruses representing four lineages (D/OK, D/660, D/Yama2016, and D/Yama2019) to RNA polymerase inhibitors (baloxavir and favipiravir) by using a focus reduction assay. All viruses tested were susceptible to both drugs. We then performed a genetic analysis to check for amino acid substitutions associated with baloxavir and favipiravir resistance and found that none of the viruses tested possessed these substitutions. Use of the focus reduction assay with the genotypic assay has proven valuable for monitoring the antiviral susceptibilities of influenza C and D viruses as well as influenza A and B viruses. Antiviral susceptibility monitoring of all influenza virus types should continue in order to assess the public health risks posed by these viruses.

Therapeutic efficacy of monoclonal antibodies and antivirals against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1 in Syrian hamsters.

The spike protein of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the major antigen stimulating the host's protective immune response. Here we assessed the efficacy of therapeutic monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) against Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) sublineage BA.1 variants in Syrian hamsters. Of the FDA-approved therapeutic mAbs tested (that is, REGN10987/REGN10933, COV2-2196/COV2-2130 and S309), only COV2-2196/COV2-2130 efficiently inhibited BA.1 replication in the lungs of hamsters, and this effect was diminished against a BA.1.1 variant possessing the S-R346K substitution. In addition, treatment of BA.1-infected hamsters with molnupiravir (a SARS-CoV-2 RNA-dependent RNA polymerase inhibitor) or S-217622 (a SARS-CoV-2 protease inhibitor) strongly reduced virus replication in the lungs. These findings suggest that the use of therapeutic mAbs in Omicron-infected patients should be carefully considered due to mutations that affect efficacy, and demonstrate that the antiviral compounds molnupiravir and S-217622 are effective against Omicron BA.1 variants.

Characterization and antiviral susceptibility of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2.

The recent emergence of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron (B.1.1.529 lineage) variants possessing numerous mutations has raised concerns of decreased effectiveness of current vaccines, therapeutic monoclonal antibodies and antiviral drugs for COVID-19 against these variants1,2. The original Omicron lineage, BA.1, prevailed in many countries, but more recently, BA.2 has become dominant in at least 68 countries3. Here we evaluated the replicative ability and pathogenicity of authentic infectious BA.2 isolates in immunocompetent and human ACE2-expressing mice and hamsters. In contrast to recent data with chimeric, recombinant SARS-CoV-2 strains expressing the spike proteins of BA.1 and BA.2 on an ancestral WK-521 backbone4, we observed similar infectivity and pathogenicity in mice and hamsters for BA.2 and BA.1, and less pathogenicity compared with early SARS-CoV-2 strains. We also observed a marked and significant reduction in the neutralizing activity of plasma from individuals who had recovered from COVID-19 and vaccine recipients against BA.2 compared to ancestral and Delta variant strains. In addition, we found that some therapeutic monoclonal antibodies (REGN10987 plus REGN10933, COV2-2196 plus COV2-2130, and S309) and antiviral drugs (molnupiravir, nirmatrelvir and S-217622) can restrict viral infection in the respiratory organs of BA.2-infected hamsters. These findings suggest that the replication and pathogenicity of BA.2 is similar to that of BA.1 in rodents and that several therapeutic monoclonal antibodies and antiviral compounds are effective against Omicron BA.2 variants.

Global update on the susceptibilities of human influenza viruses to neuraminidase inhibitors and the cap-dependent endonuclease inhibitor baloxavir, 2018-2020.

Global analysis of the susceptibility of influenza viruses to neuraminidase (NA) inhibitors (NAIs) and the polymerase acidic (PA) inhibitor (PAI) baloxavir was conducted by five World Health Organization Collaborating Centres for Reference and Research on Influenza during two periods (May 2018-May 2019 and May 2019-May 2020). Combined phenotypic and NA sequence-based analysis revealed that the global frequency of viruses displaying reduced or highly reduced inhibition (RI or HRI) or potential to show RI/HRI by NAIs remained low, 0.5% (165/35045) and 0.6% (159/26010) for the 2018-2019 and 2019-2020 periods, respectively. The most common amino acid substitution was NA-H275Y (N1 numbering) conferring HRI by oseltamivir and peramivir in A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses. Combined phenotypic and PA sequence-based analysis showed that the global frequency of viruses showing reduced susceptibility to baloxavir or carrying substitutions associated with reduced susceptibility was low, 0.5% (72/15906) and 0.1% (18/15692) for the 2018-2019 and 2019-2020 periods, respectively. Most (n = 61) of these viruses had I38→T/F/M/S/L/V PA amino acid substitutions. In Japan, where baloxavir use was highest, the rate was 4.5% (41/919) in the 2018-2019 period and most of the viruses (n = 32) had PA-I38T. Zoonotic viruses isolated from humans (n = 32) in different countries did not contain substitutions in NA associated with NAI RI/HRI phenotypes. One A(H5N6) virus had a dual substitution PA-I38V + PA-E199G, which may reduce susceptibility to baloxavir. Therefore, NAIs and baloxavir remain appropriate choices for the treatment of influenza virus infections, but close monitoring of antiviral susceptibility is warranted.

Characterization and antiviral susceptibility of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron/BA.2.

The recent emergence of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants possessing large numbers of mutations has raised concerns of decreased effectiveness of current vaccines, therapeutic monoclonal antibodies, and antiviral drugs for COVID-19 against these variants1,2. While the original Omicron lineage, BA.1, has become dominant in many countries, BA.2 has been detected in at least 67 countries and has become dominant in the Philippines, India, and Denmark. Here, we evaluated the replicative ability and pathogenicity of an authentic infectious BA.2 isolate in immunocompetent and human ACE2 (hACE2)-expressing mice and hamsters. In contrast to recent data with chimeric, recombinant SARS-CoV-2 strains expressing the spike proteins of BA.1 and BA.2 on an ancestral WK-521 backbone3, we observed similar infectivity and pathogenicity in mice and hamsters between BA.2 and BA.1, and less pathogenicity compared to early SARS-CoV-2 strains. We also observed a marked and significant reduction in the neutralizing activity of plasma from COVID-19 convalescent individuals and vaccine recipients against BA.2 compared to ancestral and Delta variant strains. In addition, we found that some therapeutic monoclonal antibodies (REGN10987/REGN10933, COV2-2196/COV2-2130, and S309) and antiviral drugs (molnupiravir, nirmatrelvir, and S-217622) can restrict viral infection in the respiratory organs of hamsters infected with BA.2. These findings suggest that the replication and pathogenicity of BA.2 is comparable to that of BA.1 in rodents and that several therapeutic monoclonal antibodies and antiviral compounds are effective against Omicron/BA.2 variants.

Antiviral Susceptibilities of Avian Influenza A(H5), A(H7), and A(H9) Viruses Isolated in Japan.

The circulation of avian influenza A viruses in poultry is a public health concern due to the potential transmissibility and severity of these viral infections. Monitoring the susceptibility of these viruses to antivirals is important for developing measures to strengthen the level of preparedness against influenza pandemics. However, drug susceptibility information on these viruses is limited. Here, we determined the susceptibilities of avian influenza A(H5N1), A(H5N2), A(H5N8), A(H7N7), A(H7N9), A(H9N1), and A(H9N2) viruses isolated in Japan to the antivirals approved for use there: an M2 inhibitor (amantadine), neuraminidase inhibitors (oseltamivir, peramivir, zanamivir, and laninamivir) and RNA polymerase inhibitors (baloxavir and favipiravir). Genotypic methods that detect amino acid substitutions associated with antiviral resistance and phenotypic methods that assess phenotypic viral susceptibility to drugs have revealed that these avian influenza A viruses are susceptible to neuraminidase and RNA polymerase inhibitors. These results suggest that neuraminidase and RNA polymerase inhibitors currently approved in Japan could be a treatment option against influenza A virus infections in humans.

Detection of Variants With Reduced Baloxavir Marboxil and Oseltamivir Susceptibility in Children With Influenza A During the 2019-2020 Influenza Season.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to detect influenza variants with reduced susceptibility to baloxavir marboxil (baloxavir) and oseltamivir and identify differences in the clinical course between children with and without these variants after antiviral treatment. METHODS: During the 2019-2020 influenza season, we enrolled children with confirmed influenza A (20 treated with baloxavir and 16 with oseltamivir). We analyzed patients' sequential viral RNA loads and infectious virus titers, the drug susceptibilities of clinical isolates, and amino acid substitutions in the viral polymerase acidic protein subunits or neuraminidase. We assessed patients' clinical information using questionnaires. RESULTS: All viral RNA loads and virus titers were significantly decreased after treatment, but we detected baloxavir-resistant and oseltamivir-resistant variants in 5 of 20 and 3 of 16 patients, respectively. The duration of fever was similar between patients with and without the variants, but infectious viral shedding lasted 3 days longer in patients with baloxavir-resistant variants. In addition, the duration to improvement of clinical symptoms was longer in these patients (75.0 vs 29.5 hours; P = .106). CONCLUSIONS: After antiviral treatment, the emergence of baloxavir-resistant variants may affect the patients' clinical course, but oseltamivir-resistant variants had no clinical impact.

Next-Generation Sequencing Analysis of the Within-Host Genetic Diversity of Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 Viruses in the Upper and Lower Respiratory Tracts of Patients with Severe Influenza.

The influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus emerged in April 2009 with an unusual incidence of severe disease and mortality, and currently circulates as a seasonal influenza virus. Previous studies using consensus viral genome sequencing data have overlooked the viral genomic and phenotypic diversity. Next-generation sequencing (NGS) may instead be used to characterize viral populations in an unbiased manner and to measure within-host genetic diversity. In this study, we used NGS analysis to investigate the within-host genetic diversity of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus in the upper and lower respiratory samples from nine patients who were admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). A total of 47 amino acid substitution positions were found to differ between the upper and lower respiratory tract samples from all patients. However, the D222G/N substitution in hemagglutinin (HA) protein was the only amino acid substitution common to multiple patients. Furthermore, the substitution was detected only in the six samples from the lower respiratory tract. Therefore, it is important to investigate influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus populations using multiple paired samples from the upper and lower respiratory tract to avoid overlooking potentially important substitutions, especially in patients with severe disease.IMPORTANCE The D222G/N substitution in the hemagglutinin (HA) protein of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus has been reported to be associated with disease severity and mortality in numerous previous studies. In the present study, 75% of lower respiratory samples contained heterogeneous influenza populations that carried different amino acids at position 222 of the HA protein, whereas all upper respiratory samples only contained the wild-type 222D. These results suggest the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus has diversified inside the host owing to differences in tissue specificity. In this study, the within-host genetic diversity of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus was investigated for the first time using next-generation sequencing analysis of the viral whole-genome in samples extracted from the upper and lower respiratory tracts of patients with severe disease.

In Vitro Characterization of Multidrug-Resistant Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 Viruses Carrying a Dual Neuraminidase Mutation Isolated from Immunocompromised Patients.

Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses carrying a dual neuraminidase (NA) substitution were isolated from immunocompromised patients after administration of one or more NA inhibitors. These mutant viruses possessed an H275Y/I223R, H275Y/I223K, or H275Y/G147R substitution in their NA and showed enhanced cross-resistance to oseltamivir and peramivir and reduced susceptibility to zanamivir compared to single H275Y mutant viruses. Baloxavir could be a treatment option against the multidrug-resistant viruses because these dual H275Y mutant viruses showed susceptibility to this drug. The G147R substitution appears to stabilize the NA structure, with the fitness of the H275Y/G147R mutant virus being similar or somewhat better than that of the wild-type virus. Since the multidrug-resistant viruses may be able to transmit between humans, surveillance of these viruses must continue to improve clinical management and to protect public health.

Integrating genotypes and phenotypes improves long-term forecasts of seasonal influenza A/H3N2 evolution.

Seasonal influenza virus A/H3N2 is a major cause of death globally. Vaccination remains the most effective preventative. Rapid mutation of hemagglutinin allows viruses to escape adaptive immunity. This antigenic drift necessitates regular vaccine updates. Effective vaccine strains need to represent H3N2 populations circulating one year after strain selection. Experts select strains based on experimental measurements of antigenic drift and predictions made by models from hemagglutinin sequences. We developed a novel influenza forecasting framework that integrates phenotypic measures of antigenic drift and functional constraint with previously published sequence-only fitness estimates. Forecasts informed by phenotypic measures of antigenic drift consistently outperformed previous sequence-only estimates, while sequence-only estimates of functional constraint surpassed more comprehensive experimentally-informed estimates. Importantly, the best models integrated estimates of both functional constraint and either antigenic drift phenotypes or recent population growth.

Vaccination is the best protection against seasonal flu. It teaches the immune system what the flu virus looks like, preparing it to fight off an infection. But the flu virus changes its molecular appearance every year, escaping the immune defences learnt the year before. So, every year, the vaccine needs updating. Since it takes almost a year to design and make a new flu vaccine, researchers need to be able to predict what flu viruses will look like in the future. Currently, this prediction relies on experiments that assess the molecular appearance of flu viruses, a complex and slow approach. One alternative is to examine the virus's genetic code. Mathematical models try to predict which genetic changes might alter the appearance of a flu virus, saving the cost of performing specialised experiments. Recent research has shown that these models can make good predictions, but including experimental measures of the virus' appearance could improve them even further. This could help the model to work out which genetic changes are likely to be beneficial to the virus, and which are not. To find out whether experimental data improves model predictions, Huddleston et al. designed a new forecasting tool which used 25 years of historical data from past flu seasons. Each forecast predicted what the virus population might look like the next year using the previous year's genetic code, experimental data, or both. Huddleston et al. then compared the predictions with the historical data to find the most useful data types. This showed that the best predictions combined changes from the virus's genetic code with experimental measures of its appearance. This new forecasting tool is open source, allowing teams across the world to start using it to improve their predictions straight away. Seasonal flu infects between 5 and 15% of the world's population every year, causing between quarter of a million and half a million deaths. Better predictions could lead to better flu vaccines and fewer illnesses and deaths.

Successful treatment with baloxavir marboxil of a patient with peramivir-resistant influenza A/H3N2 with a dual E119D/R292K substitution after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation: a case report.

BACKGROUND: Extended use of oseltamivir in an immunocompromised host could reportedly induce neuraminidase gene mutation possibly leading to oseltamivir-resistant influenza A/H3N2 virus. To our knowledge, no report is available on the clinical course of a severely immunocompromised patient with a dual E119D/R292K neuraminidase mutated-influenza A/H3N2 during the administration of peramivir. CASE PRESENTATION: A 49-year-old male patient was admitted for second allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation for active acute leukemia. The patient received 5 mg prednisolone and 75 mg cyclosporine and had severe lymphopenia (70/µL). At the time of hospitalization, the patient was diagnosed with upper tract influenza A virus infection, and oseltamivir treatment was initiated immediately. However, the patient was intolerant to oseltamivir. The following day, treatment was changed to peramivir. Despite a total period of neuraminidase-inhibitor administration of 16 days, the symptoms and viral shedding continued. Changing to baloxavir marboxil resolved the symptoms, and the influenza diagnostic test became negative. Subsequently, sequence analysis of the nasopharyngeal specimen revealed the dual E119D/R292K neuraminidase mutant influenza A/H3N2. CONCLUSIONS: In a highly immunocompromised host, clinicians should take care when peramivir is used for extended periods to treat influenza virus A/H3N2 infection as this could potentially leading to a dual E119D/R292K substitution in neuraminidase protein. Baloxavir marboxil may be one of the agents that can be used to treat this type of mutated influenza virus infection.

Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus exhibiting reduced susceptibility to baloxavir due to a PA E23K substitution detected from a child without baloxavir treatment.

Human-to-human transmission of PA I38 mutant influenza A(H3N2) viruses with reduced baloxavir susceptibility has been reported in Japan. In December 2019, we detected a PA E23K mutant A(H1N1)pdm09 virus from a child without baloxavir treatment. The PA E23K mutant virus exhibited reduced baloxavir susceptibility but remained susceptible to neuraminidase inhibitors. Epidemiological data suggest possible transmission of this PA E23K mutant virus among humans, although its growth capability relative to that of the wild-type virus was reduced. Therefore, baloxavir susceptibility monitoring of influenza viruses is essential.