Assessment of climate impact on grape productivity: A new application for bioclimatic indices in Italy.

Italy is a world leader for viticulture and wine business with an export valued 7 billion of euros in 2021, and wine being the second most exported product within the national agri-food sector. However, these figures might be threatened by climate change and winegrowers call for more reliable local information on future impacts of climate change on viticulture. The study aims to understand the impact of climate on wine production in Italy using grape productivity data and bioclimatic indices. Using temperature and precipitation observations from the E-OBS gridded dataset, a set of bioclimatic indices recommended by the International Organisation of Vine and Wine guidelines is calculated and correlated with grape productivity data at the regional scale (Nomenclature of territorial units for statistics, NUTS, level 2) over the last 39 years (1980-2019). The study investigates how both long-term change and natural variability of the bioclimatic indices impacted on grape productivity. Both single and multi-regression approaches are applied to assess the portion of grape productivity variability explained by the selected indices. When the single-regression approach is applied, the correlations between bioclimatic indices and grape productivity explain up to the 45 % of total production variability, however they are statistically significant only in few regions. Conversely, the multi-regression approach improves the proportion of variance explained and gives statistically significative results in region where the single regression is not statically significant. The multi-regressive approach shows the added value of considering the interplay of different bioclimatic indices in explaining the overall variability of productivity. The possibility of using bioclimatic indicators as a proxy for grape productivity provides a simple tool that grape growers, wine consortia and policy makers can use to adapt to future climate.

Robust assessment of the time of emergence of precipitation change in West Africa.

The time of emergence (TOE) of climate change is defined as the time when a new climate state emerges from a prior one. TOE assessment is particularly relevant in West Africa, a region highly threatened by climate change and urgently needing trustworthy climate predictions. In this paper, the TOE of precipitation change in West Africa is assessed for the first time, by analyzing 6 precipitation metrics (cumulated precipitation, number of wet and very wet days, onset and length of the rainy season) computed from the output of 29 state-of-the-art climate models. In West Sahel, climate conditions characterized by reduced occurrence of wet days are likely to emerge before 2036, leading to the possible emergence of a dryer climate in 2028-2052. In East Sahel, a wetter precipitation regime characterized by increased occurrence of very wet days is likely to emerge before 2054. Results do not provide a clear indication about a possible climate shift in the onset and length of the rainy season. Although uncertainty in climate model future projections still limits the robust determination of TOE locally, this study provides reliable time constraints to the expected climate shift in West Africa at the sub-regional scale, supporting adaptation measures to the future change in the precipitation regime.

The 'Hikikomori' syndrome: worldwide prevalence and co-occurring major psychiatric disorders: a systematic review and meta-analysis protocol.

INTRODUCTION: The 'Hikikomori' syndrome (HS) consists of prolonged and severe social withdrawal. It has been studied first in Japan and recently has increasingly drawn the attention of researchers and clinicians all over the world. It is unclear whether it exists in other cultural contexts than Asia. The existing systematic reviews did not provide a quantitative synthesis on its prevalence. In addition, a summary of the co-occurring rates of psychiatric disorders is lacking. To provide a more comprehensive understanding of the clinical picture, it seems important to investigate which psychiatric disorders listed in the classification systems are most frequently associated with this psychological condition affecting young people. This paper describes a systematic review and meta-analysis protocol summarising worldwide prevalence of the HS in general population and clinical samples with psychiatric disorders. The review will also assess the co-occurrence between HS and each psychiatric disorder defined by any version of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) or International Classification of Diseases (ICD) in any clinical samples with psychiatric disorders. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A systematic review will be conducted according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. Studies will be included if they use youth aged 12-35 years, recruited from general population or population with psychiatric disorders, if they use international criteria to diagnose HS. No restriction about design or language will be applied. The search will be conducted during the first week of November 2019 by two independent reviewers through the databases Scopus, PubMed, PsycINFO, Web of Science, by examining study references, by looking for conference proceedings/dissertations/theses, by contacting study corresponding authors. Random-effect meta-analysis will be performed by computing effect sizes as logit event rates. Study quality will be assessed through the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The current review does not require ethics approval. The results will be disseminated through conference presentations and publications in peer-reviewed journals. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD 42018098747.

Agriculture in West Africa in the Twenty-First Century: Climate Change and Impacts Scenarios, and Potential for Adaptation.

West Africa is known to be particularly vulnerable to climate change due to high climate variability, high reliance on rain-fed agriculture, and limited economic and institutional capacity to respond to climate variability and change. In this context, better knowledge of how climate will change in West Africa and how such changes will impact crop productivity is crucial to inform policies that may counteract the adverse effects. This review paper provides a comprehensive overview of climate change impacts on agriculture in West Africa based on the recent scientific literature. West Africa is nowadays experiencing a rapid climate change, characterized by a widespread warming, a recovery of the monsoonal precipitation, and an increase in the occurrence of climate extremes. The observed climate tendencies are also projected to continue in the twenty-first century under moderate and high emission scenarios, although large uncertainties still affect simulations of the future West African climate, especially regarding the summer precipitation. However, despite diverging future projections of the monsoonal rainfall, which is essential for rain-fed agriculture, a robust evidence of yield loss in West Africa emerges. This yield loss is mainly driven by increased mean temperature while potential wetter or drier conditions as well as elevated CO2 concentrations can modulate this effect. Potential for adaptation is illustrated for major crops in West Africa through a selection of studies based on process-based crop models to adjust cropping systems (change in varieties, sowing dates and density, irrigation, fertilizer management) to future climate. Results of the cited studies are crop and region specific and no clear conclusions can be made regarding the most effective adaptation options. Further efforts are needed to improve modeling of the monsoon system and to better quantify the uncertainty in its changes under a warmer climate, in the response of the crops to such changes and in the potential for adaptation.

The past, present and future of African dust.

African dust emission and transport exhibits variability on diurnal to decadal timescales and is known to influence processes such as Amazon productivity, Atlantic climate modes, regional atmospheric composition and radiative balance and precipitation in the Sahel. To elucidate the role of African dust in the climate system, it is necessary to understand the factors governing its emission and transport. However, African dust is correlated with seemingly disparate atmospheric phenomena, including the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the meridional position of the intertropical convergence zone, Sahelian rainfall and surface temperatures over the Sahara Desert, all of which obfuscate the connection between dust and climate. Here we show that the surface wind field responsible for most of the variability in North African dust emission reflects the topography of the Sahara, owing to orographic acceleration of the surface flow. As such, the correlations between dust and various climate phenomena probably arise from the projection of the winds associated with these phenomena onto an orographically controlled pattern of wind variability. A 161-year time series of dust from 1851 to 2011, created by projecting this wind field pattern onto surface winds from a historical reanalysis, suggests that the highest concentrations of dust occurred from the 1910s to the 1940s and the 1970s to the 1980s, and that there have been three periods of persistent anomalously low dust concentrations--in the 1860s, 1950s and 2000s. Projections of the wind pattern onto climate models give a statistically significant downward trend in African dust emission and transport as greenhouse gas concentrations increase over the twenty-first century, potentially associated with a slow-down of the tropical circulation. Such a dust feedback, which is not represented in climate models, may be of benefit to human and ecosystem health in West Africa via improved air quality and increased rainfall. This feedback may also enhance warming of the tropical North Atlantic, which would make the basin more suitable for hurricane formation and growth.

[Organizational well-being and work-related stress in health care organizations: validation of the Work-related Stress Assessment Scale]. / Benessere organizzativo e stress lavoro-correlato nelle organizzazioni sanitarie: validazione della Work-related Stress Assessment Scale.

The issue of the assessment of work-related stress has stimulated in recent years, the production of several theoretical paradigms and assessment tools. In this paper we present a new scale for the assessment of organizational well-being and work-related stress specific for healthcare organizations (Work-related Stress Assessment Scale - WSAS). The goal of the authors is to examine the psychometric properties of the scale, so that it can be used in the healthcare setting as a work-related stress assessment tool. The answers of 230 healthcare professionals belonging to different roles have been analyzed. The study was realized in 16 Units of the University Hospital "S. Maria alle Scotte "of Siena. The exploratory factor analysis (EFA) revealed the presence of five factors with good internal consistency and reliability, "relationship to the structure of proximity" (α = 0.93) "change" (α = 0.92), "organization of work "(α = 0.81)," relationship with the company / Governance "(α = 0.87)" working environment "(α = 0.83). The analysis of SEM (Structural Equation Models) has confirmed the goodness of the factor solution (NNFI = 0.835, CFI = 0.921, RMSEA = 0.060). The good psychometric qualities, the shortness and simplicity of the scale WSAS makes it a useful aid in the assessment of work-related stress in health care organizations.