Development and validation of a simple machine learning tool to predict mortality in leptospirosis.

Predicting risk factors for death in leptospirosis is challenging, and identifying high-risk patients is crucial as it might expedite the start of life-saving supportive care. Admission data of 295 leptospirosis patients were enrolled, and a machine-learning approach was used to fit models in a derivation cohort. The comparison of accuracy metrics was performed with two previous models-SPIRO score and quick SOFA score. A Lasso regression analysis was the selected model, demonstrating the best accuracy to predict mortality in leptospirosis [area under the curve (AUC-ROC) = 0.776]. A score-based prediction was carried out with the coefficients of this model and named LeptoScore. Then, to simplify the predictive tool, a new score was built by attributing points to the predictors with importance values higher than 1. The simplified score, named QuickLepto, has five variables (age > 40 years; lethargy; pulmonary symptom; mean arterial pressure < 80 mmHg and hematocrit < 30%) and good predictive accuracy (AUC-ROC = 0.788). LeptoScore and QuickLepto had better accuracy to predict mortality in patients with leptospirosis when compared to SPIRO score (AUC-ROC = 0.500) and quick SOFA score (AUC-ROC = 0.782). The main result is a new scoring system, the QuickLepto, that is a simple and useful tool to predict death in leptospirosis patients at hospital admission.

Endothelial biomarkers as predictors for haemodialysis need in severe leptospirosis patients (Weil's disease).

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the prediction ability of vascular injury biomarkers for haemodialysis requirement in patients with severe leptospirosis. METHODS: Prospective study with severe leptospirosis patients hospitalised in Fortaleza, Brazil. Blood samples were collected hospital admission to quantify vascular injury biomarkers: syndecan-1, ICAM-1, VCAM-1, angiopoietin-2 and FGF-23. Two groups were evaluated according to haemodialysis requirement during hospital stay. RESULTS: Twenty-seven patients were included, with a mean age of 39 ± 18 years. 88.9% were males. 53.8% needed haemodialysis and presented higher levels on hospital admission of syndecan-1 (572 [300-811] vs. 263 [106-421] ng/ml; p = 0.03), angiopoietin-2 (1.52 [0.72-2.72] vs. 0.63 [0.4-1.38] ng/ml; p = 0.01), and FGF-23 (291 [56-2031] vs. 10 [10-806] pg/ml; p = 0.021). Syndecan-1 showed significant correlation with creatinine (r = 0.546; p = 0.05) and total bilirubin levels (r = 0.534; p = 0.013) on hospital admission. Angiopoietin-2 showed significant correlation with creatinine levels (r = 0.513; p = 0.009) on hospital admission and with number of haemodialysis sessions (r = 0.406; p = 0.049). No significant correlation was found with FGF-23. Regarding prognostic performance, combined syndecan-1 and angiopoietin-2 levels had a better ability to predict haemodialysis need in patients with severe leptospirosis (AUC-ROC = 0.744 [95% CI: 0.545-0.943] p = 0.035). CONCLUSION: Syndecan-1 and angiopoietin-2 were associated with haemodialysis need in patients with severe leptospirosis and may be useful to improve therapeutic approach and reduce mortality.

Stiff-Eye Syndrome-Anti-GAD Ataxia Presenting with Isolated Ophthalmoplegia: A Case Report.

Anti-GAD ataxia is one of the most common forms of immune-mediated cerebellar ataxias. Many neurological syndromes have been reported in association with anti-GAD. Ophthalmoparesis has been described in stiff person syndrome. We report a case of anti-GAD ataxia presenting initially with isolated ophthalmoplegia and showing complete resolution after immunotherapy. A 26-year-old male patient presented with ophthalmoparesis characterized by tonic upwards deviation of the right eye. In the following month, he developed progressive ataxia with anti-GAD titers of 1972 UI/mL. After treatment with methylprednisolone and immunoglobulin, there was complete resolution of symptoms and anti-GAD titers decreased. This is the first report of isolated ophthalmoparesis due to tonic eye deviation associated with anti-GAD antibodies without stiff-person syndrome. Tonic eye deviation has been reported in SPS, possibly secondary to continuous discharge in gaze holding neurons in the brainstem (similar to what occurs in spinal motor neurons). With growing evidence for ocular abnormalitites in SPS, anti-GAD associated neurological syndromes should be included in the differential diagnosis of isolated ophthalmoplegia.

Leptospirosis in the elderly: the role of age as a predictor of poor outcomes in hospitalized patients.

Background: The aim of this study was to investigate factors associated with poor outcomes among elderly hospitalized patients with leptospirosis. Methods: This is a retrospective cohort study with leptospirosis patients admitted to three tertiary hospitals in Fortaleza, Brazil, from January 1985 to July 2017. Patients were divided into two groups: elderly (age ≥60 years) and young (age <60 years). A comparison of demographical, clinical and laboratory data, treatment and outcomes was executed in order to investigate differences between groups. Results: A total of 507 hospitalized patients were included, with mean age 38 ± 15 years. Elderly group presented lower incidence of myalgia, vomiting, and dyspnea, as well as, higher medium systolic blood pressure. Elderly also manifested higher frequency of AKI (85.9 vs. 74.7%, p = 0.05), hemodialysis requirement (54.7 vs. 37.0%, p = 0.007) and death (32.8 vs. 12.2%, p < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, age ≥60 years was a predictor of hemodialysis requirement (p = 0.008, OR = 2.049, 95% CI = 1.207-3.477) and death (p < 0.001, OR = 3.520, 95% CI = 1.940-6.386). Conclusion: Leptospirosis in the elderly is associated with less hemodynamic impairment and higher frequency of AKI. Advanced age was also a predictor of poor outcomes, such as hemodialysis requirement and death, mostly due to kidney involvement.