Implementing a Medicines at Transitions Intervention (MaTI) for patients with heart failure: a process evaluation of the Improving the Safety and Continuity Of Medicines management at Transitions of care (ISCOMAT) cluster randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure is a major global health challenge incurring a high rate of mortality, morbidity and hospitalisation. Effective medicines management at the time of hospital discharge into the community could reduce poor outcomes for people with heart failure. Within the Improving the Safety and Continuity Of Medicines management at Transitions of care (ISCOMAT) programme, the Medicines at Transitions Intervention (MaTI) was co-designed to improve such transitions, with a cluster randomised controlled trial to test effectiveness. The MaTI includes a patient toolkit and transfer of discharge medicines information to community pharmacy. This paper aims to determine the degree to which the intervention was delivered, and identify barriers and facilitators experienced by staff for the successful implementation of the intervention. METHODS: The study was conducted in six purposively selected intervention sites. A mixed-methods design was employed using hospital staff interviews, structured and unstructured ward observations, and routine trial data about adherence to the MaTI. A parallel mixed analysis was applied. Qualitative data were analysed thematically using the Framework method. Data were synthesised, triangulated and mapped to the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR). RESULTS: With limited routines of communication between ward staff and community pharmacy, hospital staff found implementing community pharmacy-related steps of the intervention challenging. Staff time was depleted by attempts to bridge system barriers, sometimes leading to steps not being delivered. Whilst the introduction of the patient toolkit was often completed and valued as important patient education and a helpful way to explain medicines, the medicines discharge log within it was not, as this was seen as a duplication of existing systems. Within the CFIR the most applicable constructs were identified as 'intervention complexity' and 'cosmopolitanism' based on how well hospitals were networked with community pharmacies, and the availability of hospital resources to facilitate this. CONCLUSION: The MaTI was generally successfully implemented, particularly the introduction of the toolkit. However, implementation involving community pharmacy was more challenging and more effective communication systems are needed to support wider implementation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: 11/04/2018 ISRCTN66212970. https://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN66212970 .

Standardised and hierarchically classified heart failure and complementary disease monitoring outcome measures: european Unified Registries for heart Care evaluation and randomised trials (EuroHeart).

AIMS: The lack of standardised definitions for heart failure outcome measures limits the ability to reliably assess effectiveness of heart failure therapies. The European Unified Registries for Heart Care Evaluation and Randomised Trials (EuroHeart) aimed to produce a catalogue of internationally endorsed data definitions for heart failure outcome measures. METHODS: Following the EuroHeart methods for the development of cardiovascular data standards, a working group was formed of representatives from the European Society of Cardiology Heart Failure Association and other leading heart failure experts. A systematic review of observational and randomised clinical trials identified current outcome measures, which was supplemented by clinical practice guidelines and existing registries for contemporary definitions. A modified Delphi process was employed to gain consensus for variable inclusion and whether collection should be mandatory (Level 1) or optional (Level 2) within EuroHeart. In addition, a set of complementary outcome measures were identified by the Working Group as of scientific and clinical importance for longitudinal monitoring for people with heart failure. RESULTS: Five Level 1 and two Level 2 outcome measures were selected and defined, alongside five complementary monitoring outcomes for patients with heart failure. CONCLUSION: We present a structured, hierarchical catalogue of internationally endorsed heart failure outcome measures. This will facilitate quality improvement, high quality observational research, registry-based trials, and post market surveillance of medical devices.

Sudden cardiac death after myocardial infarction: individual participant data from pooled cohorts.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Risk stratification of sudden cardiac death after myocardial infarction and prevention by defibrillator rely on left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). Improved risk stratification across the whole LVEF range is required for decision-making on defibrillator implantation. METHODS: The analysis pooled 20 data sets with 140 204 post-myocardial infarction patients containing information on demographics, medical history, clinical characteristics, biomarkers, electrocardiography, echocardiography, and cardiac magnetic resonance imaging. Separate analyses were performed in patients (i) carrying a primary prevention cardioverter-defibrillator with LVEF ≤ 35% [implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) patients], (ii) without cardioverter-defibrillator with LVEF ≤ 35% (non-ICD patients ≤ 35%), and (iii) without cardioverter-defibrillator with LVEF > 35% (non-ICD patients >35%). Primary outcome was sudden cardiac death or, in defibrillator carriers, appropriate defibrillator therapy. Using a competing risk framework and systematic internal-external cross-validation, a model using LVEF only, a multivariable flexible parametric survival model, and a multivariable random forest survival model were developed and externally validated. Predictive performance was assessed by random effect meta-analysis. RESULTS: There were 1326 primary outcomes in 7543 ICD patients, 1193 in 25 058 non-ICD patients ≤35%, and 1567 in 107 603 non-ICD patients >35% during mean follow-up of 30.0, 46.5, and 57.6 months, respectively. In these three subgroups, LVEF poorly predicted sudden cardiac death (c-statistics between 0.50 and 0.56). Considering additional parameters did not improve calibration and discrimination, and model generalizability was poor. CONCLUSIONS: More accurate risk stratification for sudden cardiac death and identification of low-risk individuals with severely reduced LVEF or of high-risk individuals with preserved LVEF was not feasible, neither using LVEF nor using other predictors.

Phenotypic characterisation of people at risk of atrial fibrillation: Protocol for the FIND-AF longitudinal cohort study.

AIMS: The Future Innovations in Novel Detection of Atrial Fibrillation (FIND-AF) longitudinal cohort study is a multi-centre prospective cohort study of patients identified at risk of atrial fibrillation (AF). The aim of the FIND-AF longitudinal cohort study is to provide multi-modal phenotypic characterisation of these patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: 1955 participants identified as at risk of AF by the FIND-AF algorithm from primary care electronic health (EHR) data, aged 30 years and above and eligible for oral anticoagulation, will be be recruited between October 2023 and November 2024 to receive home-based intermittent ECG monitoring. About 500 participants without diagnosed AF will then undergo cross-sectional phenotypic characterisation including physical examination, symptoms assessment, serum blood biomarkers and echocardiography, and non-stress cardiac magnetic resonance imaging. Longitudinal information about cardio-renal-metabolic-pulmonary outcomes will be ascertained from linkages to EHR data. The study is funded by the British Heart Foundation (CC/22/250026). The study has ethical approval (North West - Greater Manchester South Research Ethics Committee reference 23/NW/0180). Findings will be announced at relevant conferences and published in peer-reviewed journals in line with the Funder's open access policy. CONCLUSIONS: The FIND-AF multi-centre prospective longitudinal cohort study aims to (i) provide evidence for the impact of comorbidities on AF genesis (ii) uncover actionable targets to prevent AF, and (iii) act as a platform for cohort randomised clinical trials that investigate enhanced detection and prevention of AF.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common abnormal heart rhythm encountered in clinical practice but we know little about changes to the heart before AF starts, and whether these can be reversed to reduce the risk of future AF. In this study people we will recruit people who have been identified as higher risk of AF using a decision support tool in their medical records, but who have not been found to have AF at the moment when they have had their ECG checked.We will look at the structure and function of their hearts using ultrasound and MRI, and we will also check their blood tests. We aim to learn if people without AF, but at higher risk of AF, have changes to their heart and then conduct studies to establish if these changes can be reversed.

Impact of Chronic Kidney Disease on the Processes of Care and Long-Term Mortality of Non-ST-Segment-Elevation Myocardial Infarction: A Nationwide Cohort Study and Long-Term Follow-Up.

BACKGROUND: A growing population of patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) presents with non-ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction, although little is known about their longer-term mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using the MINAP (Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project) registry, linked to Office for National Statistics mortality data, we analyzed 363 559 UK patients with non-ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction, with or without CKD. Cox regression models were fitted, adjusting for baseline demographics. Compared with patients without CKD, patients with CKD were less frequently prescribed P2Y12 inhibitors (89% versus 86%, P<0.001) less likely to undergo invasive angiography (67% versus 41%, P<0.001) or percutaneous coronary intervention (41% versus 25%, P<0.001), and were less often referred to cardiac rehabilitation (80% versus 66%, P<0.001). Following non-ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction, patients with CKD had higher risk of 30-day (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.24 [95% CI, 1.20-1.29], 1-year 1.47 [95% CI, 1.44-1.51]) and 5-year mortality 1.55 (95% CI, 1.53-1.58) than patients without CKD (all P<0.001). Risk of mortality over the entire study period was highest in CKD Stage 5 (HR, 2.98 [95% CI, 2.87-3.10]), even after excluding mortality ≤30 days (HR, 3.03 [95% CI, 2.90-3.17]) (P<0.001). There was no significant difference in proportion of deaths attributable to cardiovascular disease at 30 days (CKD; 76% versus no CKD; 76%), or 1 -year (CKD; 62% versus no CKD; 62%). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with CKD were significantly less likely to receive invasive investigation or undergo percutaneous coronary intervention and had significantly higher risk of short- and longer-term mortality. Risk of mortality increased with reducing CKD stage. Cardiovascular disease was the main cause of mortality in patients with CKD, but at comparable rates to the general population with non-ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction.

Presentation, care, coronary intervention and outcomes of patients with NSTEMI according to age: insights from the international prospective ACVC-EAPCI EORP NSTEMI registry.

BACKGROUND: Older people less frequently receive invasive coronary angiography (ICA) for NSTEMI than younger patients. We describe care, ICA data, and in-hospital and 30-day outcomes of NSTEMI by age in a contemporary and geographically diverse cohort. METHODS: Prospective cohort study including 2947 patients with NSTEMI from 287 centres in 59 countries, stratified by age (≥75 years, n = 761). Quality of care was evaluated based on 12 guideline-recommended care interventions, and data collected on ICA. Outcomes included in hospital acute heart failure, cardiogenic shock, repeat myocardial infarction, stroke/transient ischaemic attack, BARC Type ≥3 bleeding and death, as well as 30-day mortality. RESULTS: Patients aged ≥75 years, compared with younger patients, at presentation had a higher prevalence of comorbidities and oral anticoagulation prescription (22.4% vs 7.6%, p < 0.001). Older patients less frequently received ICA than younger patients (78.6% vs 90.6%, p < 0.001) with the recorded reason more often being advanced age, comorbidities or frailty. Of those who underwent ICA, older patients more frequently demonstrated 3-vessel, 4-vessel and/or left main stem coronary artery disease compared to younger patients (49.7% vs 34.1%, p < 0.001) but less frequently received revascularisation (63.6% vs 76.9%, p < 0.001). Older patients experienced higher rates of in-hospital acute heart failure (15.0% vs 8.4%, p < 0.001) and bleeding (2.8% vs 1.3%, p = 0.006), as well as in-hospital and 30-day mortality (3.4% vs 1.3%, p < 0.001; 4.8% vs 1.7%, p < 0.001; respectively), than younger patients. CONCLUSIONS: Patients aged ≥75 years with NSTEMI, compared with younger patients, less frequently received ICA and guideline-recommended care, and had worse short-term outcomes.

Association of baseline and changes in health-related quality of life with mortality following myocardial infarction: multicentre longitudinal linked cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) for patients following myocardial infarction (MI) is frequently impaired. We investigated the association of baseline and changes in HRQoL with mortality following MI. METHODS AND RESULTS: Nationwide longitudinal study of 9474 patients admitted to 77 hospitals in England as part of the Evaluation of the Methods and Management of Acute Coronary Events study. Self-reported HRQoL was collected using EuroQol EQ-5D-3L during hospitalization and at 1, 6, and 12 months following discharge. The data was analysed using flexible parametric and multilevel survival models. Of 9474 individuals with MI, 2360 (25%) were women and 2135 (22.5%) died during the 9-year follow-up period. HRQoL improved over 12 months (baseline mean, mean increase: EQ-5D 0.76, 0.003 per month; EQ-VAS 69.0, 0.5 per month). At baseline, better HRQoL was inversely associated with mortality [Hazard ratio (HR) 0.55, 95% CI 0.47-0.63], and problems with self-care (HR 1.73, 1.56-1.92), mobility (1.65, 1.50-1.81), usual activities (1.34, 1.23-1.47), and pain/discomfort (1.34, 1.22-1.46) were associated with increased mortality. Deterioration in mobility, pain/discomfort, usual activities, and self-care over 12 months were associated with increased mortality (HR 1.43, 95% CI 1.31-1.58; 1.21, 1.11-1.32; 1.20, 1.10-1.32; 1.44, 1.30-1.59, respectively). CONCLUSION: After MI, poor HRQoL at baseline, its dimensions, and deterioration over time are associated with an increased risk of mortality. Measuring HRQoL in routine clinical practice after MI could identify at-risk groups for interventions to improve prognosis.

Effect of Triple Therapy on Cardiovascular and Severe Cardiopulmonary Events in COPD: A Post-hoc Analysis of a Randomized, Double-Blind, Phase 3 Clinical Trial (ETHOS).

Rationale: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular and cardiopulmonary events. In the Phase III, 52-week ETHOS trial (NCT02465567), triple therapy with budesonide/glycopyrrolate/formoterol fumarate (BGF) reduced rates of moderate/severe exacerbations and all-cause mortality versus dual therapy with glycopyrrolate/formoterol fumarate (GFF) or budesonide/formoterol fumarate (BFF). However, the effect of BGF on cardiovascular events versus GFF remains unevaluated. Further, the effect of BGF on time to first severe exacerbation has not been reported. Objective: Assess the effects of BGF 320/18/9.6 µg (BGF 320) and other ICS-containing arms on cardiovascular and severe cardiopulmonary endpoints versus GFF in patients with COPD from ETHOS. Methods: Patients with moderate-to-very severe COPD and a history of exacerbations were randomized to twice-daily BGF 320, BGF 160/18/9.6 µg, BFF 320/9.6 µg, or GFF 18/9.6 µg (GFF). Time to first severe COPD exacerbation was a pre-specified endpoint; post-hoc cardiovascular and severe cardiopulmonary endpoints included time to first major adverse cardiac event (MACE), time to first cardiovascular adverse event (AE) of special interest (CVAESI), time to first cardiac AE, and time to the composite endpoint of first severe cardiopulmonary event. Measurements and Main Results: BGF 320 reduced the rate of first occurrence (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]) of cardiovascular and severe cardiopulmonary events versus GFF, including for CVAESI (0.63 [0.48, 0.82]), cardiac AE (0.60 [0.48, 0.76]), and severe cardiopulmonary event (0.80 [0.67, 0.95]). Conclusions: BGF had a benefit on cardiovascular endpoints and severe cardiopulmonary events versus GFF in patients with moderate-to-very severe COPD.

European Society of Cardiology quality indicators update for the care and outcomes of adults with heart failure. The Heart Failure Association of the ESC.

AIMS: To update the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) quality indicators (QIs) for the evaluation of the care and outcomes of adults with heart failure. METHODS AND RESULTS: The Working Group comprised experts in heart failure including members of the ESC Clinical Practice Guidelines Task Force for heart failure, members of the Heart Failure Association, and a patient representative. We followed the ESC methodology for QI development. The 2023 focused guideline update was reviewed to assess the suitability of the recommendations with strongest association with benefit and harm against the ESC criteria for QIs. All the new proposed QIs were individually graded by each panellist via online questionnaires for both validity and feasibility. The existing heart failure QIs also underwent voting to 'keep', 'remove' or 'modify'. Five domains of care for the management of heart failure were identified: (1) structural QIs, (2) patient assessment, (3) initial treatment, (4) therapy optimization, and (5) patient health-related quality of life. In total, 14 'main' and 3 'secondary' QIs were selected across the five domains. CONCLUSION: This document provides an update of the previously published ESC QIs for heart failure to ensure that these measures are aligned with contemporary evidence. The QIs may be used to quantify adherence to clinical practice as recommended in guidelines to improve the care and outcomes of patients with heart failure.

Design and deployment of the STEEER-AF trial to evaluate and improve guideline adherence: a cluster-randomized trial by the European Society of Cardiology and European Heart Rhythm Association.

AIMS: The aim is to describe the rationale, design, delivery, and baseline characteristics of the Stroke prevention and rhythm control Treatment: Evaluation of an Educational programme of the European society of cardiology in a cluster-Randomized trial in patients with Atrial Fibrillation (STEEER-AF) trial. METHODS AND RESULTS: STEEER-AF is a pragmatic trial designed to objectively and robustly determine whether guidelines are adhered to in routine practice and evaluate a targeted educational programme for healthcare professionals. Seventy centres were randomized in six countries (France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, and UK; 2022-23). The STEEER-AF centres recruited 1732 patients with a diagnosis of atrial fibrillation (AF), with a mean age of 68.9 years (SD 11.7), CHA2DS2-VASc score of 3.2 (SD 1.8), and 647 (37%) women. Eight hundred and forty-three patients (49%) were in AF at enrolment and 760 (44%) in sinus rhythm. Oral anticoagulant therapy was prescribed in 1543 patients (89%), with the majority receiving direct oral anticoagulants (1378; 89%). Previous cardioversion, antiarrhythmic drug therapy, or ablation was recorded in 836 patients (48.3%). Five hundred fifty-one patients (31.8%) were currently receiving an antiarrhythmic drug, and 446 (25.8%) were scheduled to receive a future cardioversion or ablation. The educational programme engaged 195 healthcare professionals across centres randomized to the intervention group, consisting of bespoke interactive online learning and reinforcement activities, supported by national expert trainers. CONCLUSION: The STEEER-AF trial was successfully deployed across six European countries to investigate guideline adherence in real-world practice and evaluate if a structured educational programme for healthcare professionals can improve patient-level care. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov, NCT04396418.

Coronary revascularization and sex differences in cardiovascular mortality after myocardial infarction in 12 high and middle-income European countries.

BACKGROUND: Existing data on female sex and excess cardiovascular mortality after myocardial infarction (MI) mostly come from high-income countries (HICs). This study aimed to investigate how sex disparities in treatments and outcomes vary across countries with different income levels. METHODS: Data from the ISACS-Archives registry included 22 087 MI patients from 6 HICs and 6 middle-income countries (MICs). MI data were disaggregated by clinical presentation: ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI). The primary outcome was 30-day mortality. RESULTS: Among STEMI patients, women in MICs had nearly double the 30-day mortality rate of men (12.4% versus 5.8%; adjusted risk ratio [RR] 2.30, 95% CI 1.98-2.68). This difference was less pronounced in HICs (6.8% versus 5.1%; RR 1.36, 95% CI 1.05-1.75). Despite more frequent treatments and timely revascularization in MICs, sex-based mortality differences persisted even after revascularization (8.0% versus 4.1%; RR 2.05, 95% CI, 1.68-2.50 in MICs and 5.6% versus 2.6%; RR 2.17, 95% CI 1.48-3.18) in HICs. Additionally, women from MICs had higher diabetes rates compared to HICs (31.8% versus 25.1%, standardized difference = 0.15). NSTEMI outcomes were relatively similar between sexes and income groups. CONCLUSIONS: Sex disparities in mortality rates following STEMI are more pronounced in MICs compared to HICs. These disparities cannot be solely attributed to sex-related inequities in revascularization. Variations in mortality may also be influenced by sex differences in socioeconomic factors and baseline comorbidities.

Prediction of incident chronic kidney disease in community-based electronic health records: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major global health problem and its early identification would allow timely intervention to reduce complications. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of multivariable prediction models derived and/or validated in community-based electronic health records (EHRs) for the prediction of incident CKD in the community. Methods: Ovid Medline and Ovid Embase were searched for records from 1947 to 31 January 2024. Measures of discrimination were extracted and pooled by Bayesian meta-analysis, with heterogeneity assessed through a 95% prediction interval (PI). Risk of bias was assessed using Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST) and certainty in effect estimates by Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE). Results: Seven studies met inclusion criteria, describing 12 prediction models, with two eligible for meta-analysis including 2 173 202 patients. The Chronic Kidney Disease Prognosis Consortium (CKD-PC) (summary c-statistic 0.847; 95% CI 0.827-0.867; 95% PI 0.780-0.905) and SCreening for Occult REnal Disease (SCORED) (summary c-statistic 0.811; 95% CI 0.691-0.926; 95% PI 0.514-0.992) models had good model discrimination performance. Risk of bias was high in 64% of models, and driven by the analysis domain. No model met eligibility for meta-analysis if studies at high risk of bias were excluded, and certainty of effect estimates was 'low'. No clinical utility analyses or clinical impact studies were found for any of the models. Conclusions: Models derived and/or externally validated for prediction of incident CKD in community-based EHRs demonstrate good prediction performance, but assessment of clinical usefulness is limited by high risk of bias, low certainty of evidence and a lack of impact studies.

Implications of Cardiopulmonary Risk for the Management of COPD: A Narrative Review.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) constitutes a major global health burden and is the third leading cause of death worldwide. A high proportion of patients with COPD have cardiovascular disease, but there is also evidence that COPD is a risk factor for adverse outcomes in cardiovascular disease. Patients with COPD frequently die of respiratory and cardiovascular causes, yet the identification and management of cardiopulmonary risk remain suboptimal owing to limited awareness and clinical intervention. Acute exacerbations punctuate the progression of COPD in many patients, reducing lung function and increasing the risk of subsequent exacerbations and cardiovascular events that may lead to early death. This narrative review defines and summarises the principles of COPD-associated cardiopulmonary risk, and examines respiratory interventions currently available to modify this risk, as well as providing expert opinion on future approaches to addressing cardiopulmonary risk.

Cohort profile: the European Unified Registries On Heart Care Evaluation and Randomized Trials (EuroHeart)-acute coronary syndrome and percutaneous coronary intervention.

AIMS: The European Unified Registries On Heart Care Evaluation and Randomized Trials (EuroHeart) aims to improve the quality of care and clinical outcomes for patients with cardiovascular disease. The collaboration of acute coronary syndrome/percutaneous coronary intervention (ACS/PCI) registries is operational in seven vanguard European Society of Cardiology member countries. METHODS AND RESULTS: Adults admitted to hospitals with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) are included, and individual patient-level data collected and aligned according to the internationally agreed EuroHeart data standards for ACS/PCI. The registries provide up to 155 variables spanning patient demographics and clinical characteristics, in-hospital care, in-hospital outcomes, and discharge medications. After performing statistical analyses on patient data, participating countries transfer aggregated data to EuroHeart for international reporting. Between 1st January 2022 and 31st December 2022, 40 021 admissions (STEMI 46.7%, NSTEMI 53.3%) were recorded from 192 hospitals in the seven vanguard countries: Estonia, Hungary, Iceland, Portugal, Romania, Singapore, and Sweden. The mean age for the cohort was 67.9 (standard deviation 12.6) years, and it included 12 628 (31.6%) women. CONCLUSION: The EuroHeart collaboration of ACS/PCI registries prospectively collects and analyses individual data for ACS and PCI at a national level, after which aggregated results are transferred to the EuroHeart Data Science Centre. The collaboration will expand to other countries and provide continuous insights into the provision of clinical care and outcomes for patients with ACS and undergoing PCI. It will serve as a unique international platform for quality improvement, observational research, and registry-based clinical trials.

Heart Failure Readmission in Patients With ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction and Active Cancer.

Background: Although numerous studies have examined readmission with heart failure (HF) after acute myocardial infarction (AMI), limited data are available on HF readmission in cancer patients post-AMI. Objectives: This study aimed to assess the rates and factors associated with HF readmission in cancer patients presenting with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). Methods: A nationally linked cohort of STEMI patients between January 2005 and March 2019 were obtained from the UK Myocardial Infarction National Audit Project registry and the UK national Hospital Episode Statistics Admitted Patient Care registry. Multivariable Fine-Gray competing risk models were used to evaluate HF readmission at 30 days and 1 year. Results: A total of 326,551 STEMI indexed admissions were included, with 7,090 (2.2%) patients having active cancer. The cancer group was less likely to be admitted under the care of a cardiologist (74.5% vs 81.9%) and had lower rates of invasive coronary angiography (62.2% vs 72.7%; P < 0.001) and percutaneous coronary intervention (58.4% vs. 69.5%). There was a significant prescription gap in the administration of post-AMI medications upon discharge such as an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin receptor blocker (49.5% vs 71.1%) and beta-blockers (58.4% vs 68.0%) in cancer patients. The cancer group had a higher rate of HF readmission at 30 days (3.2% vs 2.3%) and 1 year (9.4% vs 7.3%). However, after adjustment, cancer was not independently associated with HF readmission at 30 days (subdistribution HR: 1.05; 95% CI: 0.86-1.28) or 1 year (subdistribution HR: 1.03; 95% CI: 0.92-1.16). The opportunity-based quality indicator was associated with higher rates of HF readmission independent of cancer diagnosis. Conclusions: Cancer patients receive care that differs in important ways from patients without cancer. Greater implementation of evidence-based care may reduce HF readmissions, including in cancer patients.

Risk calculator for incident atrial fibrillation across a range of prediction horizons.

BACKGROUND: The increasing burden of atrial fibrillation (AF) emphasizes the need to identify high-risk individuals for enrolment in clinical trials of AF screening and primary prevention. We aimed to develop prediction models to identify individuals at high-risk of AF across prediction horizons from 6-months to 10-years. METHODS: We used secondary-care linked primary care electronic health record data from individuals aged ≥30 years without known AF in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink-GOLD dataset between January 2, 1998 and November 30, 2018; randomly divided into derivation (80%) and validation (20%) datasets. Models were derived using logistic regression from known AF risk factors for incident AF in prediction periods of 6 months, 1-year, 2-years, 5-years, and 10-years. Performance was evaluated using in the validation dataset with bootstrap validation with 200 samples, and compared against the CHA2DS2-VASc and C2HEST scores. RESULTS: Of 2,081,139 individuals in the cohort (1,664,911 in the development dataset, 416,228 in the validation dataset), the mean age was 49.9 (SD 15.4), 50.7% were women, and 86.7% were white. New cases of AF were 7,386 (0.4%) within 6 months, 15,349 (0.7%) in 1 year, 38,487 (1.8%) in 5 years, and 79,997 (3.8%) by 10 years. Valvular heart disease and heart failure were the strongest predictors, and association of hypertension with AF increased at longer prediction horizons. The optimal risk models incorporated age, sex, ethnicity, and 8 comorbidities. The models demonstrated good-to-excellent discrimination and strong calibration across prediction horizons (AUROC, 95%CI, calibration slope: 6-months, 0.803, 0.789-0.821, 0.952; 1-year, 0.807, 0.794-0.819, 0.962; 2-years, 0.815, 0.807-0.823, 0.973; 5-years, 0.807, 0.803-0.812, 1.000; 10-years 0.780, 0.777-0.784, 1.010), and superior to the CHA2DS2-VASc and C2HEST scores. The models are available as a web-based FIND-AF calculator. CONCLUSIONS: The FIND-AF models demonstrate high discrimination and calibration across short- and long-term prediction horizons in 2 million individuals. Their utility to inform trial enrolment and clinical decisions for AF screening and primary prevention requires further study.

Health outcomes after myocardial infarction: A population study of 56 million people in England.

BACKGROUND: The occurrence of a range of health outcomes following myocardial infarction (MI) is unknown. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the long-term risk of major health outcomes following MI and generate sociodemographic stratified risk charts in order to inform care recommendations in the post-MI period and underpin shared decision making. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This nationwide cohort study includes all individuals aged ≥18 years admitted to one of 229 National Health Service (NHS) Trusts in England between 1 January 2008 and 31 January 2017 (final follow-up 27 March 2017). We analysed 11 non-fatal health outcomes (subsequent MI and first hospitalisation for heart failure, atrial fibrillation, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral arterial disease, severe bleeding, renal failure, diabetes mellitus, dementia, depression, and cancer) and all-cause mortality. Of the 55,619,430 population of England, 34,116,257 individuals contributing to 145,912,852 hospitalisations were included (mean age 41.7 years (standard deviation [SD 26.1]); n = 14,747,198 (44.2%) male). There were 433,361 individuals with MI (mean age 67.4 years [SD 14.4)]; n = 283,742 (65.5%) male). Following MI, all-cause mortality was the most frequent event (adjusted cumulative incidence at 9 years 37.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] [37.6,37.9]), followed by heart failure (29.6%; 95% CI [29.4,29.7]), renal failure (27.2%; 95% CI [27.0,27.4]), atrial fibrillation (22.3%; 95% CI [22.2,22.5]), severe bleeding (19.0%; 95% CI [18.8,19.1]), diabetes (17.0%; 95% CI [16.9,17.1]), cancer (13.5%; 95% CI [13.3,13.6]), cerebrovascular disease (12.5%; 95% CI [12.4,12.7]), depression (8.9%; 95% CI [8.7,9.0]), dementia (7.8%; 95% CI [7.7,7.9]), subsequent MI (7.1%; 95% CI [7.0,7.2]), and peripheral arterial disease (6.5%; 95% CI [6.4,6.6]). Compared with a risk-set matched population of 2,001,310 individuals, first hospitalisation of all non-fatal health outcomes were increased after MI, except for dementia (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.01; 95% CI [0.99,1.02];p = 0.468) and cancer (aHR 0.56; 95% CI [0.56,0.57];p < 0.001). The study includes data from secondary care only-as such diagnoses made outside of secondary care may have been missed leading to the potential underestimation of the total burden of disease following MI. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, up to a third of patients with MI developed heart failure or renal failure, 7% had another MI, and 38% died within 9 years (compared with 35% deaths among matched individuals). The incidence of all health outcomes, except dementia and cancer, was higher than expected during the normal life course without MI following adjustment for age, sex, year, and socioeconomic deprivation. Efforts targeted to prevent or limit the accrual of chronic, multisystem disease states following MI are needed and should be guided by the demographic-specific risk charts derived in this study.