Factors predicting mortality in hospitalised HIV-negative children with lower-chest-wall indrawing pneumonia and implications for management.

INTRODUCTION: In 2012, the World Health Organization revised treatment guidelines for childhood pneumonia with lower chest wall indrawing (LCWI) but no 'danger signs', to recommend home-based treatment. We analysed data from children hospitalized with LCWI pneumonia in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) study to identify sub-groups with high odds of mortality, who might continue to benefit from hospital management but may not be admitted by staff implementing the 2012 guidelines. We compare the proportion of deaths identified using the criteria in the 2012 guidelines, and the proportion of deaths identified using an alternative set of criteria from our model. METHODS: PERCH enrolled a cohort of 2189 HIV-negative children aged 2-59 months who were admitted to hospital with LCWI pneumonia (without obvious cyanosis, inability to feed, vomiting, convulsions, lethargy or head nodding) between 2011-2014 in Kenya, Zambia, South Africa, Mali, The Gambia, Bangladesh, and Thailand. We analysed risk factors for mortality among these cases using predictive logistic regression. Malnutrition was defined as mid-upper-arm circumference <125mm or weight-for-age z-score <-2. RESULTS: Among 2189 cases, 76 (3·6%) died. Mortality was associated with oxygen saturation <92% (aOR 3·33, 1·99-5·99), HIV negative but exposed status (4·59, 1·81-11·7), moderate or severe malnutrition (6·85, 3·22-14·6) and younger age (infants compared to children 12-59 months old, OR 2·03, 95%CI 1·05-3·93). At least one of three risk factors: hypoxaemia, HIV exposure, or malnutrition identified 807 children in this population, 40% of LCWI pneumonia cases and identified 86% of the children who died in hospital (65/76). Risk factors identified using the 2012 WHO treatment guidelines identified 66% of the children who died in hospital (n = 50/76). CONCLUSIONS: Although it focuses on treatment failure in hospital, this study supports the proposal for better risk stratification of children with LCWI pneumonia. Those who have hypoxaemia, any malnutrition or those who were born to HIV positive mothers, experience poorer outcomes than other children with LCWI pneumonia. Consistent identification of these risk factors should be prioritised and children with at least one of these risk factors should not be managed in the community.

SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and implications for population immunity: Evidence from two Health and Demographic Surveillance System sites in Kenya, February-December 2022.

BACKGROUND: We sought to estimate SARS-CoV-2 antibody seroprevalence within representative samples of the Kenyan population during the third year of the COVID-19 pandemic and the second year of COVID-19 vaccine use. METHODS: We conducted cross-sectional serosurveys among randomly selected, age-stratified samples of Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) residents in Kilifi and Nairobi. Anti-spike (anti-S) immunoglobulin G (IgG) serostatus was measured using a validated in-house ELISA and antibody concentrations estimated with reference to the WHO International Standard for anti-SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin. RESULTS: HDSS residents were sampled in February-June 2022 (Kilifi HDSS N = 852; Nairobi Urban HDSS N = 851) and in August-December 2022 (N = 850 for both sites). Population-weighted coverage for ≥1 doses of COVID-19 vaccine were 11.1% (9.1-13.2%) among Kilifi HDSS residents by November 2022 and 34.2% (30.7-37.6%) among Nairobi Urban HDSS residents by December 2022. Population-weighted anti-S IgG seroprevalence among Kilifi HDSS residents increased from 69.1% (65.8-72.3%) by May 2022 to 77.4% (74.4-80.2%) by November 2022. Within the Nairobi Urban HDSS, seroprevalence by June 2022 was 88.5% (86.1-90.6%), comparable with seroprevalence by December 2022 (92.2%; 90.2-93.9%). For both surveys, seroprevalence was significantly lower among Kilifi HDSS residents than among Nairobi Urban HDSS residents, as were antibody concentrations (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: More than 70% of Kilifi residents and 90% of Nairobi residents were seropositive for anti-S IgG by the end of 2022. There is a potential immunity gap in rural Kenya; implementation of interventions to improve COVID-19 vaccine uptake among sub-groups at increased risk of severe COVID-19 in rural settings is recommended.

Symptom prevalence and secondary attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 in rural Kenyan households: A prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: We estimated the secondary attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 among household contacts of PCR-confirmed cases of COVID-19 in rural Kenya and analysed risk factors for transmission. METHODS: We enrolled incident PCR-confirmed cases and their household members. At baseline, a questionnaire, a blood sample, and naso-oropharyngeal swabs were collected. Household members were followed 4, 7, 10, 14, 21 and 28 days after the date of the first PCR-positive in the household; naso-oropharyngeal swabs were collected at each visit and used to define secondary cases. Blood samples were collected every 1-2 weeks. Symptoms were collected in a daily symptom diary. We used binomial regression to estimate secondary attack rates and survival analysis to analyse risk factors for transmission. RESULTS: A total of 119 households with at least one positive household member were enrolled between October 2020 and September 2022, comprising 503 household members; 226 remained in follow-up at day 14 (45%). A total of 43 secondary cases arose within 14 days of identification of the primary case, and 81 household members remained negative. The 7-day secondary attack rate was 4% (95% CI 1%-10%), the 14-day secondary attack rate was 28% (95% CI 17%-40%). Of 38 secondary cases with data, eight reported symptoms (21%, 95% CI 8%-34%). Antibody to SARS-CoV-2 spike protein at enrolment was not associated with risk of becoming a secondary case. CONCLUSION: Households in our setting experienced a lower 7-day attack rate than a recent meta-analysis indicated as the global average (23%-43% depending on variant), and infection is mostly asymptomatic in our setting.

Population immunity to pneumococcal serotypes in Kilifi, Kenya, before and 6 years after the introduction of PCV10 with a catch-up campaign: an observational study of cross-sectional serosurveys.

BACKGROUND: In Kilifi (Kenya), a pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) was introduced in 2011 in infants (aged <1 year, 3 + 0 schedule) with a catch-up campaign in children aged 1-4 years. We aimed to measure the effect of PCV10 on population immunity. METHODS: In this observational study, repeated cross-sectional serosurveys were conducted in independent random samples of 500 children younger than 15 years every 2 years between 2009 and 2017. During these surveys, blood samples were collected by venesection. Concentrations of anti-capsular IgGs against vaccine serotypes (VTs) 1, 4, 5, 6B, 7F, 9V, 14, 18C, 19F, and 23F, and against serotypes 6A and 19A, were assayed by ELISA. We plotted the geometric mean concentrations (GMCs) by birth year to visualise age-specific antibody profiles. In infants, IgG concentrations of 0·35 µg/mL or higher were considered protective. FINDINGS: Of 3673 volunteers approached, 2152 submitted samples for analysis across the five surveys. Vaccine introduction resulted in an increase in the proportion of young children with protective IgG concentrations, compared with before vaccine introduction (from 0-33% of infants with VT-specific levels over the correlate of protection in 2009, to 60-94% of infants in 2011). However, among those vaccinated in infancy, GMCs of all ten VTs had waned rapidly by the age of 1, but rose again later in childhood. GMCs among children aged 10-14 years were consistently high over time (eg, the range of GMCs across survey rounds were between 0·45 µg/mL and 1·00 µg/mL for VT 23F and between 2·00 µg/mL and 3·11 µg/mL for VT 19F). INTERPRETATION: PCV10 in a 3 + 0 schedule elicited protective IgG levels during infancy, when disease risk is high. The high antibody levels in children aged 10-14 years might indicate continued exposure to vaccine serotypes due to residual carriage or to memory responses to cross-reactive antigens. Despite rapid waning of IgG after vaccination, disease incidence among young children in this setting remains low, suggesting that lower thresholds of antibody, or other markers of immunity (eg, memory B cells), may be needed to assess population protection among children who have aged past infancy. FUNDING: Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance; Wellcome Trust.

Prevalence of immunoglobulin G and M to SARS-CoV-2 and other human coronaviruses in The Democratic Republic of Congo, Sierra Leone, and Uganda: A longitudinal study.

OBJECTIVES: We assessed the prevalence of immunoglobulin G (IgG) and IgM against four endemic human coronaviruses and two SARS-CoV-2 antigens among vaccinated and unvaccinated staff at health care centers in Uganda, Sierra Leone, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. METHODS: The government health facility staff who had patient contact in Goma (Democratic Republic of Congo), Kambia District (Sierra Leone), and Masaka District (Uganda) were enrolled. Questionnaires and blood samples were collected at three time points over 4 months. Blood samples were analyzed with the Luminex MAGPIXⓇ. RESULTS: Among unvaccinated participants, the prevalence of IgG/IgM antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 receptor-binding domain or nucleocapsid protein at enrollment was 70% in Goma (138 of 196), 89% in Kambia (112 of 126), and 89% in Masaka (190 of 213). The IgG responses against endemic human coronaviruses at baseline were not associated with SARS-CoV-2 sero-acquisition during follow-up. Among the vaccinated participants, those who had evidence of SARS-CoV-2 IgG/IgM at baseline tended to have higher IgG responses to vaccination than those who were SARS-CoV-2 seronegative at baseline, controlling for the time of sample collection since vaccination. CONCLUSION: The high levels of natural immunity and hybrid immunity should be incorporated into both vaccination policies and prediction models of the impact of subsequent waves of infection in these settings.

Sero-surveillance for IgG to SARS-CoV-2 at antenatal care clinics in three Kenyan referral hospitals: Repeated cross-sectional surveys 2020-21.

INTRODUCTION: The high proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infections that have remained undetected presents a challenge to tracking the progress of the pandemic and estimating the extent of population immunity. METHODS: We used residual blood samples from women attending antenatal care services at three hospitals in Kenya between August 2020 and October 2021and a validated IgG ELISA for SARS-Cov-2 spike protein and adjusted the results for assay sensitivity and specificity. We fitted a two-component mixture model as an alternative to the threshold analysis to estimate of the proportion of individuals with past SARS-CoV-2 infection. RESULTS: We estimated seroprevalence in 2,981 women; 706 in Nairobi, 567 in Busia and 1,708 in Kilifi. By October 2021, 13% of participants were vaccinated (at least one dose) in Nairobi, 2% in Busia. Adjusted seroprevalence rose in all sites; from 50% (95%CI 42-58) in August 2020, to 85% (95%CI 78-92) in October 2021 in Nairobi; from 31% (95%CI 25-37) in May 2021 to 71% (95%CI 64-77) in October 2021 in Busia; and from 1% (95% CI 0-3) in September 2020 to 63% (95% CI 56-69) in October 2021 in Kilifi. Mixture modelling, suggests adjusted cross-sectional prevalence estimates are underestimates; seroprevalence in October 2021 could be 74% in Busia and 72% in Kilifi. CONCLUSIONS: There has been substantial, unobserved transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Nairobi, Busia and Kilifi Counties. Due to the length of time since the beginning of the pandemic, repeated cross-sectional surveys are now difficult to interpret without the use of models to account for antibody waning.

COVID-19 Vaccine Acceptability Among Healthcare Facility Workers in Sierra Leone, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda: A Multi-Centre Cross-Sectional Survey.

Objectives: This cross-sectional survey explored COVID-19 vaccine acceptability among public healthcare facility workers in Kambia (Sierra Leone), Goma (Democratic Republic of Congo) and Masaka (Uganda). Methods: Questionnaire-based interviews conducted between April-October 2021 explored participants' knowledge and perceptions of, and attitudes towards, the COVID-19 pandemic and COVID-19 vaccines, as well as COVID-19 vaccine acceptability (defined as uptake of ≥1 dose or intent to get vaccinated). Results: Whilst most (n = 444; 81.8%) of the 543 participants had one or more concerns about COVID-19 vaccines, 487 (89.7%) nonetheless perceived that they were important for pandemic control. Most participants from Kambia or Masaka either were vaccinated (n = 137/355; 38.6%) or intended to get vaccinated (n = 211/355; 59.4%) against COVID-19. In Goma, all 188 participants were unvaccinated; only 81 (43.1%) participants intended to get vaccinated, and this was associated with positive perceptions about COVID-19 vaccines. In Goma, the most common reasons for not wanting a COVID-19 vaccine were concerns that the vaccines were new (n = 75/107; 70.1%) and fear of side effects (n = 74/107; 69.2%). Conclusion: Reported COVID-19 vaccine acceptability was high among healthcare facility workers in Kambia and Masaka. The lower vaccine acceptability in Goma may highlight the importance of social mobilisation and accurate, accessible information that addresses specific concerns.

Social mixing patterns relevant to infectious diseases spread by close contact in urban Blantyre, Malawi.

INTRODUCTION: Understanding human mixing patterns relevant to infectious diseases spread through close contact is vital for modelling transmission dynamics and optimisation of disease control strategies. Mixing patterns in low-income countries like Malawi are not well known. METHODOLOGY: We conducted a social mixing survey in urban Blantyre, Malawi between April and July 2021 (between the 2nd and 3rd wave of COVID-19 infections). Participants living in densely-populated neighbourhoods were randomly sampled and, if they consented, reported their physical and non-physical contacts within and outside homes lasting at least 5 min during the previous day. Age-specific mixing rates were calculated, and a negative binomial mixed effects model was used to estimate determinants of contact behaviour. RESULTS: Of 1201 individuals enroled, 702 (58.5%) were female, the median age was 15 years (interquartile range [IQR] 5-32) and 127 (10.6%) were HIV-positive. On average, participants reported 10.3 contacts per day (range: 1-25). Mixing patterns were highly age-assortative, particularly those within the community and with skin-to-skin contact. Adults aged 20-49 y reported the most contacts (median:11, IQR: 8-15) of all age groups; 38% (95%CI: 16-63) more than infants (median: 8, IQR: 5-10), who had the least contacts. Household contact frequency increased by 3% (95%CI: 2-5) per additional household member. Unemployed participants had 15% (95%CI: 9-21) fewer contacts than other adults. Among long range (>30 m away from home) contacts, secondary school children had the largest median contact distance from home (257 m, IQR 78-761). HIV-positive status in adults >=18 years-old was not associated with changed contact patterns (rate ratio: 1.01, 95%CI: (0.91-1.12)). During this period of relatively low COVID-19 incidence in Malawi, 301 (25.1%) individuals stated that they had limited their contact with others due to COVID-19 precautions; however, their reported contacts were 8% (95%CI: 1-13) higher. CONCLUSION: In urban Malawi, contact rates, are high and age-assortative, with little reported behavioural change due to either HIV-status or COVID-19 circulation. This highlights the limits of contact-restriction-based mitigation strategies in such settings and the need for pandemic preparedness to better understand how contact reductions can be enabled and motivated.

Safety and immunogenicity of the two-dose heterologous Ad26.ZEBOV and MVA-BN-Filo Ebola vaccine regimen in children in Sierra Leone: a randomised, double-blind, controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Children account for a substantial proportion of cases and deaths from Ebola virus disease. We aimed to assess the safety and immunogenicity of a two-dose heterologous vaccine regimen, comprising the adenovirus type 26 vector-based vaccine encoding the Ebola virus glycoprotein (Ad26.ZEBOV) and the modified vaccinia Ankara vector-based vaccine, encoding glycoproteins from the Ebola virus, Sudan virus, and Marburg virus, and the nucleoprotein from the Tai Forest virus (MVA-BN-Filo), in a paediatric population in Sierra Leone. METHODS: This randomised, double-blind, controlled trial was done at three clinics in Kambia district, Sierra Leone. Healthy children and adolescents aged 1-17 years were enrolled in three age cohorts (12-17 years, 4-11 years, and 1-3 years) and randomly assigned (3:1), via computer-generated block randomisation (block size of eight), to receive an intramuscular injection of either Ad26.ZEBOV (5 × 1010 viral particles; first dose) followed by MVA-BN-Filo (1 × 108 infectious units; second dose) on day 57 (Ebola vaccine group), or a single dose of meningococcal quadrivalent (serogroups A, C, W135, and Y) conjugate vaccine (MenACWY; first dose) followed by placebo (second dose) on day 57 (control group). Study team personnel (except for those with primary responsibility for study vaccine preparation), participants, and their parents or guardians were masked to study vaccine allocation. The primary outcome was safety, measured as the occurrence of solicited local and systemic adverse symptoms during 7 days after each vaccination, unsolicited systemic adverse events during 28 days after each vaccination, abnormal laboratory results during the study period, and serious adverse events or immediate reportable events throughout the study period. The secondary outcome was immunogenicity (humoral immune response), measured as the concentration of Ebola virus glycoprotein-specific binding antibodies at 21 days after the second dose. The primary outcome was assessed in all participants who had received at least one dose of study vaccine and had available reactogenicity data, and immunogenicity was assessed in all participants who had received both vaccinations within the protocol-defined time window, had at least one evaluable post-vaccination sample, and had no major protocol deviations that could have influenced the immune response. This study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02509494. FINDINGS: From April 4, 2017, to July 5, 2018, 576 eligible children or adolescents (192 in each of the three age cohorts) were enrolled and randomly assigned. The most common solicited local adverse event during the 7 days after the first and second dose was injection-site pain in all age groups, with frequencies ranging from 0% (none of 48) of children aged 1-3 years after placebo injection to 21% (30 of 144) of children aged 4-11 years after Ad26.ZEBOV vaccination. The most frequently observed solicited systemic adverse event during the 7 days was headache in the 12-17 years and 4-11 years age cohorts after the first and second dose, and pyrexia in the 1-3 years age cohort after the first and second dose. The most frequent unsolicited adverse event after the first and second dose vaccinations was malaria in all age cohorts, irrespective of the vaccine types. Following vaccination with MenACWY, severe thrombocytopaenia was observed in one participant aged 3 years. No other clinically significant laboratory abnormalities were observed in other study participants, and no serious adverse events related to the Ebola vaccine regimen were reported. There were no treatment-related deaths. Ebola virus glycoprotein-specific binding antibody responses at 21 days after the second dose of the Ebola virus vaccine regimen were observed in 131 (98%) of 134 children aged 12-17 years (9929 ELISA units [EU]/mL [95% CI 8172-12 064]), in 119 (99%) of 120 aged 4-11 years (10 212 EU/mL [8419-12 388]), and in 118 (98%) of 121 aged 1-3 years (22 568 EU/mL [18 426-27 642]). INTERPRETATION: The Ad26.ZEBOV and MVA-BN-Filo Ebola vaccine regimen was well tolerated with no safety concerns in children aged 1-17 years, and induced robust humoral immune responses, suggesting suitability of this regimen for Ebola virus disease prophylaxis in children. FUNDING: Innovative Medicines Initiative 2 Joint Undertaking and Janssen Vaccines & Prevention BV.

Safety and long-term immunogenicity of the two-dose heterologous Ad26.ZEBOV and MVA-BN-Filo Ebola vaccine regimen in adults in Sierra Leone: a combined open-label, non-randomised stage 1, and a randomised, double-blind, controlled stage 2 trial.

BACKGROUND: The Ebola epidemics in west Africa and the Democratic Republic of the Congo highlight an urgent need for safe and effective vaccines to prevent Ebola virus disease. We aimed to assess the safety and long-term immunogenicity of a two-dose heterologous vaccine regimen, comprising the adenovirus type 26 vector-based vaccine encoding the Ebola virus glycoprotein (Ad26.ZEBOV) and the modified vaccinia Ankara vector-based vaccine, encoding glycoproteins from Ebola virus, Sudan virus, and Marburg virus, and the nucleoprotein from the Tai Forest virus (MVA-BN-Filo), in Sierra Leone, a country previously affected by Ebola. METHODS: The trial comprised two stages: an open-label, non-randomised stage 1, and a randomised, double-blind, controlled stage 2. The study was done at three clinics in Kambia district, Sierra Leone. In stage 1, healthy adults (aged ≥18 years) residing in or near Kambia district, received an intramuscular injection of Ad26.ZEBOV (5 × 1010 viral particles) on day 1 (first dose) followed by an intramuscular injection of MVA-BN-Filo (1 × 108 infectious units) on day 57 (second dose). An Ad26.ZEBOV booster vaccination was offered at 2 years after the first dose to stage 1 participants. The eligibility criteria for adult participants in stage 2 were consistent with stage 1 eligibility criteria. Stage 2 participants were randomly assigned (3:1), by computer-generated block randomisation (block size of eight) via an interactive web-response system, to receive either the Ebola vaccine regimen (Ad26.ZEBOV followed by MVA-BN-Filo) or an intramuscular injection of a single dose of meningococcal quadrivalent (serogroups A, C, W135, and Y) conjugate vaccine (MenACWY; first dose) followed by placebo on day 57 (second dose; control group). Study team personnel, except those with primary responsibility for study vaccine preparation, and participants were masked to study vaccine allocation. The primary outcome was the safety of the Ad26.ZEBOV and MVA-BN-Filo vaccine regimen, which was assessed in all participants who had received at least one dose of study vaccine. Safety was assessed as solicited local and systemic adverse events occurring in the first 7 days after each vaccination, unsolicited adverse events occurring in the first 28 days after each vaccination, and serious adverse events or immediate reportable events occurring up to each participant's last study visit. Secondary outcomes were to assess Ebola virus glycoprotein-specific binding antibody responses at 21 days after the second vaccine in a per-protocol set of participants (ie, those who had received both vaccinations within the protocol-defined time window, had at least one evaluable post-vaccination sample, and had no major protocol deviations that could have influenced the immune response) and to assess the safety and tolerability of the Ad26.ZEBOV booster vaccination in stage 1 participants who had received the booster dose. This study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02509494. FINDINGS: Between Sept 30, 2015, and Oct 19, 2016, 443 participants (43 in stage 1 and 400 in stage 2) were enrolled; 341 participants assigned to receive the Ad26.ZEBOV and MVA-BN-Filo regimen and 102 participants assigned to receive the MenACWY and placebo regimen received at least one dose of study vaccine. Both regimens were well tolerated with no safety concerns. In stage 1, solicited local adverse events (mostly mild or moderate injection-site pain) were reported in 12 (28%) of 43 participants after Ad26.ZEBOV vaccination and in six (14%) participants after MVA-BN-Filo vaccination. In stage 2, solicited local adverse events were reported in 51 (17%) of 298 participants after Ad26.ZEBOV vaccination, in 58 (24%) of 246 after MVA-BN-Filo vaccination, in 17 (17%) of 102 after MenACWY vaccination, and in eight (9%) of 86 after placebo injection. In stage 1, solicited systemic adverse events were reported in 18 (42%) of 43 participants after Ad26.ZEBOV vaccination and in 17 (40%) after MVA-BN-Filo vaccination. In stage 2, solicited systemic adverse events were reported in 161 (54%) of 298 participants after Ad26.ZEBOV vaccination, in 107 (43%) of 246 after MVA-BN-Filo vaccination, in 51 (50%) of 102 after MenACWY vaccination, and in 39 (45%) of 86 after placebo injection. Solicited systemic adverse events in both stage 1 and 2 participants included mostly mild or moderate headache, myalgia, fatigue, and arthralgia. The most frequent unsolicited adverse event after the first dose was headache in stage 1 and malaria in stage 2. Malaria was the most frequent unsolicited adverse event after the second dose in both stage 1 and 2. No serious adverse event was considered related to the study vaccine, and no immediate reportable events were observed. In stage 1, the safety profile after the booster vaccination was not notably different to that observed after the first dose. Vaccine-induced humoral immune responses were observed in 41 (98%) of 42 stage 1 participants (geometric mean binding antibody concentration 4784 ELISA units [EU]/mL [95% CI 3736-6125]) and in 176 (98%) of 179 stage 2 participants (3810 EU/mL [3312-4383]) at 21 days after the second vaccination. INTERPRETATION: The Ad26.ZEBOV and MVA-BN-Filo vaccine regimen was well tolerated and immunogenic, with persistent humoral immune responses. These data support the use of this vaccine regimen for Ebola virus disease prophylaxis in adults. FUNDING: Innovative Medicines Initiative 2 Joint Undertaking and Janssen Vaccines & Prevention BV.

Anti-Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Immunoglobulin G Antibody Seroprevalence Among Truck Drivers and Assistants in Kenya.

In October 2020, anti-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) immunoglobulin G seroprevalence among truck drivers and their assistants (TDA) in Kenya was 42.3%, higher than among healthcare workers and blood donors. Truck drivers and their assistants transport essential supplies during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, placing them at increased risk of being infected and of transmitting SARS-CoV-2 over a wide geographical area.

Temporal trends of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in Kenya.

Observed SARS-CoV-2 infections and deaths are low in tropical Africa raising questions about the extent of transmission. We measured SARS-CoV-2 IgG by ELISA in 9,922 blood donors across Kenya and adjusted for sampling bias and test performance. By 1st September 2020, 577 COVID-19 deaths were observed nationwide and seroprevalence was 9.1% (95%CI 7.6-10.8%). Seroprevalence in Nairobi was 22.7% (18.0-27.7%). Although most people remained susceptible, SARS-CoV-2 had spread widely in Kenya with apparently low associated mortality.

Seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies in Kenyan blood donors.

The spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Africa is poorly described. The first case of SARS-CoV-2 in Kenya was reported on 12 March 2020, and an overwhelming number of cases and deaths were expected, but by 31 July 2020, there were only 20,636 cases and 341 deaths. However, the extent of SARS-CoV-2 exposure in the community remains unknown. We determined the prevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin G among blood donors in Kenya in April-June 2020. Crude seroprevalence was 5.6% (174 of 3098). Population-weighted, test-performance-adjusted national seroprevalence was 4.3% (95% confidence interval, 2.9 to 5.8%) and was highest in urban counties Mombasa (8.0%), Nairobi (7.3%), and Kisumu (5.5%). SARS-CoV-2 exposure is more extensive than indicated by case-based surveillance, and these results will help guide the pandemic response in Kenya and across Africa.

Vaccine strategies to reduce the burden of pneumococcal disease in HIV-infected adults in Africa.

INTRODUCTION: Streptococcus pneumoniae is the leading cause of invasive bacterial disease, globally. Despite antiretroviral therapy, adults infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) are also at high risk of pneumococcal carriage and disease. Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) provide effective protection against vaccine serotype (VT) carriage and disease in children, and have been introduced worldwide, including most HIV-affected low- and middle-income countries. Unlike high-income countries, the circulation of VT persists in the PCV era in some low-income countries and results in a continued high burden of pneumococcal disease in HIV-infected adults. Moreover, no routine vaccination that directly protects HIV-infected adults in such settings has been implemented. AREAS COVERED: Nonsystematic review on the pneumococcal burden in HIV-infected adults and vaccine strategies to reduce this burden. EXPERT OPINION: We propose and discuss the relative merit of changing the infant PCV program to use (1a) a two prime plus booster dose schedule, (1b) a two prime plus booster dose schedule with an additional booster dose at school entry, to directly vaccinate (2a) HIV-infected adults or vaccinating (2b) HIV-infected pregnant women for direct protection, with added indirect protection to the high-risk neonates. We identify key knowledge gaps for such an evaluation and propose strategies to overcome them.

Surveillance of endemic human coronaviruses (HCoV-NL63, OC43 and 229E) associated with childhood pneumonia in Kilifi, Kenya.

Introduction: Human coronaviruses (HCoVs) circulate endemically in human populations, often with seasonal variation. We describe the long-term patterns of paediatric disease associated with three of these viruses, HCoV-NL63, OC43 and 229E, in coastal Kenya. Methods: Continuous surveillance of pneumonia admissions was conducted at the Kilifi county hospital (KCH) located in the northern coastal region of Kenya. Children aged <5 years admitted to KCH with clinically defined syndromic severe or very severe pneumonia were recruited. Respiratory samples were taken and tested for 15 virus targets, using real-time polymerase chain reaction. Unadjusted odds ratios were used to estimate the association between demographic and clinical characteristics and HCoV positivity. Results: From 2007 to 2019, we observed 11,445 pneumonia admissions, of which 314 (3.9%) tested positive for at least one HCoV type. There were 129 (41.1%) OC43, 99 (31.5%) 229E, 74 (23.6%) NL63 positive cases and 12 (3.8%) cases of HCoV to HCoV coinfection.  Among HCoV positive cases, 47% (n=147) were coinfected with other respiratory virus pathogens. The majority of HCoV cases were among children aged <1 year (66%, n=208), though there was no age-dependence in the proportion testing positive. HCoV-OC43 was predominant of the three HCoV types throughout the surveillance period. Evidence for seasonality was not identified. Conclusions: Overall, 4% of paediatric pneumonia admissions were associated with three endemic HCoVs, with a high proportion of cases co-occurring with another respiratory virus, with no clear seasonal pattern, and with the age-distribution of cases following that of pneumonia admissions (i.e. highest in infants). These observations suggest, at most, a small severe disease contribution of endemic HCoVs in this tropical setting and offer insight into the potential future burden and epidemiological characteristics of SARS-CoV-2.

The Predictive Performance of a Pneumonia Severity Score in Human Immunodeficiency Virus-negative Children Presenting to Hospital in 7 Low- and Middle-income Countries.

BACKGROUND: In 2015, pneumonia remained the leading cause of mortality in children aged 1-59 months. METHODS: Data from 1802 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-negative children aged 1-59 months enrolled in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) study with severe or very severe pneumonia during 2011-2014 were used to build a parsimonious multivariable model predicting mortality using backwards stepwise logistic regression. The PERCH severity score, derived from model coefficients, was validated on a second, temporally discrete dataset of a further 1819 cases and compared to other available scores using the C statistic. RESULTS: Predictors of mortality, across 7 low- and middle-income countries, were age <1 year, female sex, ≥3 days of illness prior to presentation to hospital, low weight for height, unresponsiveness, deep breathing, hypoxemia, grunting, and the absence of cough. The model discriminated well between those who died and those who survived (C statistic = 0.84), but the predictive capacity of the PERCH 5-stratum score derived from the coefficients was moderate (C statistic = 0.76). The performance of the Respiratory Index of Severity in Children score was similar (C statistic = 0.76). The number of World Health Organization (WHO) danger signs demonstrated the highest discrimination (C statistic = 0.82; 1.5% died if no danger signs, 10% if 1 danger sign, and 33% if ≥2 danger signs). CONCLUSIONS: The PERCH severity score could be used to interpret geographic variations in pneumonia mortality and etiology. The number of WHO danger signs on presentation to hospital could be the most useful of the currently available tools to aid clinical management of pneumonia.

Efficacy and immunogenicity of a single dose of human papillomavirus vaccine compared to no vaccination or standard three and two-dose vaccination regimens: A systematic review of evidence from clinical trials.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to systematically review the literature on the efficacy and immunogenicity of single-dose HPV vaccination compared to no vaccination or multi-dose schedules among vaccine trial participants. METHODS: Medline, EMBASE, Global Health Database and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials were searched for publications and conference abstracts (dated January 1999-August 2018) using MeSH and non-MeSH terms for human papillomavirus AND vaccines AND (immunogenicity OR efficacy/effectiveness) AND dosage. Search results were screened against pre-specified eligibility criteria. Data were extracted from included articles, and a narrative synthesis conducted on efficacy against HPV16/18 infection and humoral immunogenicity. RESULTS: Seven of 6,523 unique records identified were included in the review. Six were nested observational studies of participants randomised to receive two or three doses in three large HPV vaccine trials, in which some participants did not complete their allocated schedules. One small pilot study prospectively allocated participants to receive one or no vaccine dose. Frequency of HPV16/18 infection was low (e.g. <1% for 12-month-persistent infection) in all vaccinated participants up to seven years post vaccination and did not significantly differ by number of doses (p > 0.05 in all cases). Frequency of infection was significantly lower in one-dose recipients compared to unvaccinated controls (p < 0.01 for all infection endpoints in each study). HPV16/18 seropositivity rates were high in all HPV vaccine recipients (100% in three of four studies reporting this endpoint), though antibody levels were lower with one compared to two or three doses. CONCLUSIONS: This review supports the premise that one HPV vaccine dose may be as effective in preventing HPV infection as multi-dose schedules in healthy young women. However, it also highlights the paucity of available evidence from purpose-designed, prospectively-randomised trials. Results from ongoing clinical trials assessing the efficacy and immunogenicity of single-dose HPV vaccination compared to currently-recommended schedules are awaited.

Vaccine programme stakeholder perspectives on a hypothetical single-dose human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine schedule in low and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends a 2-dose HPV vaccine schedule for girls aged 9-14 years. As randomised controlled trials assessing the immunogenicity and efficacy of a 1-dose schedule are ongoing, we interviewed immunisation programme managers and advisors in low and middle-income countries (LMIC) about a hypothetical, future reduction in the HPV vaccine schedule. METHODS: We conducted semi-structured interviews with LMIC immunisation programme managers and national immunisation technical advisory group members (key informants; KIs) in 2017, recruited for their knowledge/experience in national HPV vaccine policy and provision. Data were analysed thematically. RESULTS: We conducted 30 interviews with KIs from 18 countries. Perceived advantages of a 1-dose schedule included reduced logistical and financial resources needed for vaccine delivery, fewer cold chain requirements and easier integration into routine immunisation services. Perceived challenges included health worker hesitancy, resources needed to re-mobilise communities and re-train health workers, potential misrepresentation of schedule changes by anti-vaccine groups or the media. Half of interviewees suggested a WHO recommendation would be necessary prior to policy change. CONCLUSIONS: We found wide-ranging support among LMIC immunisation managers and advisors for a 1-dose vaccine schedule if research demonstrated immunological and clinical evidence of efficacy, and WHO provided a formal recommendation.

The impact of a human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination campaign on routine primary health service provision and health workers in Tanzania: a controlled before and after study.

BACKGROUND: The burden of cervical cancer and shortage of screening services in Tanzania confers an urgent need for human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination. However, the sustainability and impact of another new vaccine campaign in an under-resourced health system requires consideration. We aimed to determine the impact of the government's school-based HPV vaccine campaign in Kilimanjaro region on the provision of routine primary health services and staff workload. METHODS: Data on daily numbers of consultations were collected from health facility register books in 63 dispensaries and health centres in North-West Tanzania for 20 weeks in 2014. Changes in outpatient, antenatal care (ANC), family planning (FP) and immunisation service activity levels before, during and after the two HPV vaccination campaigns in 2014 in 30 facilities within Kilimanjaro region ('intervention facilities') were compared with changes in activity levels in 33 facilities in Arusha region ('controls'). Qualitative interviews were conducted with health workers in Kilimanjaro region who delivered HPV vaccination and those who remained at the facility during in-school HPV vaccine delivery to explore perceptions of workload and capacity. RESULTS: Health facility activity levels were low and very variable in both regions. Controlling for district, facility type, catchment population, clinical staff per 1000 catchment population and the timing of other campaigns, no evidence of a decrease in consultations at the health facility during HPV vaccination week was found across outpatient, ANC, routine immunisation and FP services. However, compared to the average week before and after the campaign, health workers reported longer working hours and patient waiting times, feeling over-stretched and performing duties outside their normal roles whilst colleagues were absent from the facility conducting the HPV vaccine campaign. CONCLUSION: Qualitative interviews with health workers revealed that staff absence from the health facility is common for a number of reasons, including vaccination campaigns. Health workers perceived that the absence of their colleagues increased the workload at the health facility. The numbers of consultations for each service on 'normal days' were low and highly variable and there was no clear detrimental effect of the HPV vaccination campaign on routine health service activity.

What works for human papillomavirus vaccine introduction in low and middle-income countries?

Since 2007, low and middle-income countries (LMICs) have gained experience delivering HPV vaccines through HPV vaccination pilots, demonstration projects and national programmes. This commentary summarises lessons from HPV vaccination experiences in 45 LMICs and what works for HPV vaccination introduction. Methods included a systematic literature review, unpublished document review, and key informant interviews. Data were extracted from 61 peer-reviewed articles, 11 conference abstracts, 188 technical reports, and 56 interviews, with quantitative data analysed descriptively and qualitative data analysed thematically. Key lessons are described under five themes of preparation, communications, delivery, coverage achievements, and sustainability. Lessons learnt were generally consistent across countries and projects and sufficient lessons have been learnt for countries to deliver HPV vaccine through phased national rollout rather than demonstration projects. However, challenges remain in securing the political will and financial resources necessary to implement successful national programmes.