RESUMO
BACKGROUND: In the last decade, kidney donation has been recognized as a risk factor for end-stage renal disease (ESRD). ESRD risk calculators have been recently perfected in North American populations. In Mexico, the rates of overweight, obesity, and diabetes mellitus (DM) are among the highest worldwide; nevertheless, most kidney transplants are obtained from living donors. This study aims to describe the risk profile for chronic kidney disease (CKD) development in kidney donors in a highly active transplant center in Central Mexico. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective, observational, descriptive cohort study of kidney donors followed at the Hospital Centenario Miguel Hidalgo (CHMH). We used the pretransplant CKD risk calculator at 15 years and over a lifetime (www.transplantmodels.com/esrdrisk). Aside from the calculator of kidney failure risk, we also used the calculator for postdonation CKD risk (www.transplantmodels.com/donesrd/). Factors associated with a glomerular filtration rate (GFR) <60 mL/min were evaluated by univariate and multivariate analysis. RESULTS: The study included 543 donors. The average follow-up period was 1.7 years (±2.7) with a median of 0.7 years (interquartile range, 0.2-2.1). The average predicted risk for ESRD development at 15 years was 0.08% (±0.1); 25.6% had a risk >0.1%, and only 1 patient had a risk >1%. The lifetime ESRD risk was 0.62% (±0.5); 15% had a risk >1%, and the greatest risk was 3.5%. The median of patients at risk of developing postdonation ESRD was 1 in 10,000 donors (0.6-1.5) at 5 years, 5.7 in 10,000 donors (3.5-8.8) at 10 years, 15 in 10,000 donors (9.1-23.2) at 15 years, and 31 in 10,000 donors (18.9-47.7) at 20 years. During the follow-up period, 52 patients developed a GFR of <60 mL/min. Both risk estimation formulas were significantly associated with a GFR of <60 mL/min. Among the individual factors, the GFR (hazard ratio 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.94-0.97, P < .001) and the urinary albumin to creatinine ratio (hazard ratio 1.009, 95% confidence interval 1.005-1.01, P < .001) remained statistically significant. CONCLUSION: The risk of ESRD in kidney donors in Aguascalientes, Mexico, is similar to that described in the United States. Risk calculators are an indispensable decision-making tool to better understand kidney donors in our milieu.