Linking diet switching to reproductive performance across populations of two critically endangered mammalian herbivores.

Optimal foraging theory predicts that animals maximise energy intake by consuming the most valuable foods available. When resources are limited, they may include lower-quality fallback foods in their diets. As seasonal herbivore diet switching is understudied, we evaluate its extent and effects across three Kenyan reserves each for Critically Endangered eastern black rhino (Diceros bicornis michaeli) and Grevy's zebra (Equus grevyi), and its associations with habitat quality, microbiome variation, and reproductive performance. Black rhino diet breadth increases with vegetation productivity (NDVI), whereas zebra diet breadth peaks at intermediate NDVI. Black rhino diets associated with higher vegetation productivity have less acacia (Fabaceae: Vachellia and Senegalia spp.) and more grass suggesting that acacia are fallback foods, upending conventional assumptions. Larger dietary shifts are associated with longer calving intervals. Grevy's zebra diets in high rainfall areas are consistently grass-dominated, whereas in arid areas they primarily consume legumes during low vegetation productivity periods. Whilst microbiome composition between individuals is affected by the environment, and diet composition in black rhino, seasonal dietary shifts do not drive commensurate microbiome shifts. Documenting diet shifts across ecological gradients can increase the effectiveness of conservation by informing habitat suitability models and improving understanding of responses to resource limitation.

Non-invasive assessment of ovarian activity in free-ranging eastern black rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis michaeli) in Kenya.

Eastern black rhinos (Diceros bicornis michaeli) are a critically endangered species living in diverse habitats across Africa. In Kenya, once threatened with extinction due to massive poaching pressures, increased protection has resulted in losses being less than 1% annually today. Still, some populations have failed to achieve desired population growth targets. At Ol Jogi Wildlife Conservancy, some individuals are experiencing sub-optimal reproduction based on historical calving records and long inter-calving intervals (>3 years). Hormones drive the reproductive process, so non-invasive assessments of endocrine patterns can be useful indicators of individual reproductive health. In this study, we analysed longitudinal fecal progestagen metabolite (fPM) concentrations in all breeding female eastern black rhinos at Ol Jogi (n = 17) and compared the prevalence of irregular estrous cycles (longer or shorter than 20-40 days) and anestrous periods (interluteal period more than twice the length of a normal follicular phase, i.e. > 10 days) between optimal (inter-calving interval < 3 years) and sub-optimal (>3 years) reproducing individuals. Ten rhinos were pregnant during at least part of the study period. A total of 12 complete cycles were observed in seven females with an average length of 36 ± 3 days and equal numbers of regular and irregular cycles. Single anestrous periods averaging 67 ± 13 days were observed in five females. Surprisingly, a majority of cycles in optimal reproducing individuals were categorized as irregular based on fPM profiles. Overall, results suggest that irregular ovarian activity and isolated bouts of anestrus do not have negative impacts on reproductive performance in this subpopulation at Ol Jogi. A high priority is to continue using noninvasive hormone monitoring to evaluate how ecological or other variables influence reproductive success in this and other eastern black rhino subpopulations in Kenya.

Female reproductive skew exacerbates the extinction risk from poaching in the eastern black rhino.

Variation in individual demographic rates can have large consequences for populations. Female reproductive skew is an example of structured demographic heterogeneity where females have intrinsic qualities that make them more or less likely to breed. The consequences of reproductive skew for population dynamics are poorly understood in non-cooperatively breeding mammals, especially when coupled with other drivers such as poaching. We address this knowledge gap with population viability analyses using an age-specific, female-only, individual-based, stochastic population model built with long-term data for three Kenyan populations of the Critically Endangered eastern black rhino (Diceros bicornis michaeli). There was substantial reproductive skew, with a high proportion of females not breeding or doing so at very low rates. This had a large impact on the projected population growth rate for the smaller population on Ol Jogi. Moreover, including female reproductive skew exacerbates the effects of poaching, increasing the probability of extinction by approximately 70% under a simulated poaching pressure of 5% offtake per year. Tackling the effects of reproductive skew depends on whether it is mediated by habitat or social factors, with potential strategies including habitat and biological management respectively. Investigating and tackling reproductive skew in other species requires long-term, individual-level data collection.