Watershed memory amplified the Oroville rain-on-snow flood of February 2017.

Mountain snowpacks are transitioning to experience less snowfall and more rainfall as the climate warms, creating more persistent low- to no-snow conditions. This precipitation shift also invites more high-impact rain-on-snow (ROS) events, which have historically yielded many of the largest and most damaging floods in the western United States. One such sequence of events preceded the evacuation of 188,000 residents below the already-damaged Oroville Dam spillway in February 2017 in California's Sierra Nevada. Prior studies have suggested that snowmelt during ROS dramatically amplified reservoir inflows. However, we present evidence that snowmelt may have played a smaller role than previously documented (augmenting terrestrial water inputs by 21%). A series of hydrologic model experiments and subdaily snow, soil, streamflow, and hydrometeorological measurements demonstrate that direct, "passive" routing of rainfall through snow, and increasingly efficient runoff driven by gradually wetter soils can alternatively explain the extreme runoff totals. Our analysis reveals a crucial link between frequent winter storms and a basin's hydrologic response-emphasizing the role of soil moisture "memory" of within-season storms in priming impactful flood responses. Given the breadth in plausible ROS flood mechanisms, this case study underscores a need for more detailed measurements of soil moisture along with in-storm changes to snowpack structure, extent, energy balance, and precipitation phase to address ROS knowledge gaps associated with current observational limits. Sharpening our conceptual understanding of basin-scale ROS better equips water managers moving forward to appropriately classify threat levels, which are projected to increase throughout the mid-21st century.

Budyko-Based Long-Term Water and Energy Balance Closure in Global Watersheds From Earth Observations.

Earth observations offer potential pathways for accurately closing the water and energy balance of watersheds, a fundamental challenge in hydrology. However, previous attempts based on purely satellite-based estimates have focused on closing the water and energy balances separately. They are hindered by the lack of estimates of key components, such as runoff. Here, we posit a novel approach based on Budyko's water and energy balance constraints. The approach is applied to quantify the degree of long-term closure at the watershed scale, as well as its associated uncertainties, using an ensemble of global satellite data sets. We find large spatial variability across aridity, elevation, and other environmental gradients. Specifically, we find a positive correlation between elevation and closure uncertainty, as derived from the Budyko approach. In mountainous watersheds the uncertainty in closure is 3.9 ± 0.7 (dimensionless). Our results show that uncertainties in terrestrial evaporation contribute twice as much as precipitation uncertainties to errors in the closure of water and energy balance. Moreover, our results highlight the need for improving satellite-based precipitation and evaporation data in humid temperate forests, where the closure error in the Budyko space is as high as 1.1 ± 0.3, compared to only 0.2 ± 0.03 in tropical forests. Comparing the results with land surface model-based data sets driven by in situ precipitation, we find that Earth observation-based data sets perform better in regions where precipitation gauges are sparse. These findings have implications for improving the understanding of global hydrology and regional water management and can guide the development of satellite remote sensing-based data sets and Earth system models.

Managed aquifer recharge implementation criteria to achieve water sustainability.

Depletion of groundwater is accelerated due to an increase in water demand for applications in urbanized areas, agriculture sectors, and energy extraction, and dwindling surface water during changing climate. Managed aquifer recharge (MAR) is one of the several methods that can help achieve long-term water sustainability by increasing the natural recharge of groundwater reservoirs with water from non-traditional supplies such as excess surface water, stormwater, and treated wastewater. Despite the multiple benefits of MAR, the wide-scale implementation of MAR is lacking, partly because of challenges to select the location for MAR implementation and identify the MAR type based on site conditions and needs. In this review, we provide an overview of MAR types with a basic framework to select and implement specific MAR at a site based on water availability and quality, land use, source type, soil, and aquifer properties. Our analysis of 1127 MAR projects shows that MAR has been predominantly implemented in sites with sandy clay loam soil (soil group C) and with access to river water for recharge. Spatial analysis reveals that many regions with depleting water storage have opportunities to implement MAR projects. Analyzing data from 34 studies where stormwater was used for recharge, we show that MAR can remove dissolved organic carbon, most metals, E. coli but not efficient at removing most trace organics, and enterococci. Removal efficiency depends on the type of MAR. In the end, we highlight potential challenges for implementing MAR at a site and additional benefits such as minimizing land subsidence, flood risk, augmenting low dry-season flow, and minimizing salt-water intrusion. These results could help identify locations in the water-stressed regions to implement specific MAR for water sustainability.

Remote-sensing Based Assessment of Long-term Riparian Vegetation Health in Proximity to Agricultural Lands with Herbicide Use History.

Riparian ecosystems provide various ecosystem services including habitat for a variety of plant and animal communities, biofiltering, and stabilizing stream and river systems. Due to their location, riparian zones often share long borders with agricultural fields where herbicides are commonly applied to eliminate unwanted plants. There is a general concern that exposure of riparian vegetation to off-target drifted herbicides may adversely impact their health and diversity. We utilized the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to investigate the long-term (between 1992 and 2011) trend of riparian vegetation health at 17 locations in the Midwest and Great Plains areas of the United States, where herbicide usage was likely most intense. Assessment of NDVI data demonstrated that long-term vegetation health did not decline for the studied riparian zones located in proximity to croplands during spring months (April and May). During summer (June and July), while the long-term vegetation health did not decline for the majority of the sites, there were a few cases in Kansas and Nebraska with a decline in vegetation health (negative-trending NDVI). Cluster analysis of the negative-trending NDVI pixels showed that the majority of these pixels were randomly distributed throughout these riparian sites, indicating a lack of shared common causing factors. Similarly, proximity analysis suggested that distance from croplands was not associated with the decline of vegetation health found in these sites, suggesting that exposure to herbicide drift may not be a plausible factor because this would have shown higher impact on pixels closer to the cropland. Changes in canopy coverage and vegetation diversity also did not show any dependence on distance from croplands. Finally, the remote-sensing-based NDVI data sets used provide only an indirect way of assessing the impact of herbicide drift, and therefore, further work based on field survey data is recommended to completely isolate the impacts of herbicides. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2019;15:528-543. © 2019 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Parameter Estimation for Groundwater Models under Uncertain Irrigation Data.

The success of modeling groundwater is strongly influenced by the accuracy of the model parameters that are used to characterize the subsurface system. However, the presence of uncertainty and possibly bias in groundwater model source/sink terms may lead to biased estimates of model parameters and model predictions when the standard regression-based inverse modeling techniques are used. This study first quantifies the levels of bias in groundwater model parameters and predictions due to the presence of errors in irrigation data. Then, a new inverse modeling technique called input uncertainty weighted least-squares (IUWLS) is presented for unbiased estimation of the parameters when pumping and other source/sink data are uncertain. The approach uses the concept of generalized least-squares method with the weight of the objective function depending on the level of pumping uncertainty and iteratively adjusted during the parameter optimization process. We have conducted both analytical and numerical experiments, using irrigation pumping data from the Republican River Basin in Nebraska, to evaluate the performance of ordinary least-squares (OLS) and IUWLS calibration methods under different levels of uncertainty of irrigation data and calibration conditions. The result from the OLS method shows the presence of statistically significant (p < 0.05) bias in estimated parameters and model predictions that persist despite calibrating the models to different calibration data and sample sizes. However, by directly accounting for the irrigation pumping uncertainties during the calibration procedures, the proposed IUWLS is able to minimize the bias effectively without adding significant computational burden to the calibration processes.

Impact of temperature and precipitation on propagation of intestinal schistosomiasis in an irrigated region in Ethiopia: suitability of satellite datasets.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the suitability of satellite temperature and precipitation datasets for investigating the dependence of Schistosoma mansoni disease transmission on meteorological conditions in an irrigated agricultural region in Ethiopia. METHODS: Data used were monthly number of patients infected with S. mansoni and seeking treatment at the local hospital, monthly maximum air temperature from a local weather station, monthly average land surface temperature from MODIS satellite data, monthly total precipitation from a local rain gauge and precipitation estimates from four widely used satellite products, namely, TMPA 3B42RT, TMPA 3B42, CMORPH and PERSIANN. The number of patients was used as proxy for vector abundance. RESULTS: Temperature and precipitation play a role in the transmission of S. mansoni disease. There is a weak but significant positive correlation between monthly maximum air temperature derived from a meteorological station (or average land surface temperature derived from MODIS satellite product) and the number of patients in the same month. There is a significant negative correlation between monthly precipitation volume (derived from rain gauge or satellite data) and number of patients at lags of 1 and 2 months. CONCLUSION: Satellite temperature and precipitation products provide useful information to understand and infer the relationship between meteorological conditions and S. mansoni prevalence.