Development of a Model for the Pediatric Survival After Veno-Arterial Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Score: The Pedi-SAVE Score.

Pediatric cardiac extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) patients have high mortality rates. The purpose of our study was to develop and validate the Pediatric Survival After Veno-arterial ECMO (Pedi-SAVE) score for predicting survival at hospital discharge after pediatric cardiac veno-arterial (VA) ECMO. We used data for pediatric cardiac VA-ECMO patients from the Extracorporeal Life Support Organization registry (1/1/2001-12/31/2015). Development and validation cohorts were created using 2:1 random sampling. Predictors of survival to develop pre- and postcannulation models were selected using multivariable logistic regression and random forest models. ß-coefficients were standardized to create the Pedi-SAVE score. Of 10,091 pediatric cardiac VA-ECMO patients, 4,996 (50%) survived to hospital discharge. Pre- and postcannulation Pedi-SAVE scores predicted that the lowest risk patients have a 65% and 74% chance of survival at hospital discharge, respectively, compared to 33% and 22% in the highest risk patients. In the validation cohort, pre- and postcannulation Pedi-SAVE scores had c-statistics of 0.64 and 0.71, respectively. Precannulation factors associated with survival included: nonsingle ventricle congenital heart disease, older age, white race, lower STAT mortality category, higher pH, not requiring acid-buffer administration, <2 cardiac procedures, and indication for VA-ECMO other than failure to wean from cardiopulmonary bypass. Postcannulation, additional factors associated with survival included: lower ECMO pump flows at 24 hours and lack of complications. The Pedi-SAVE score is a novel validated tool to predict survival at hospital discharge for pediatric cardiac VA-ECMO patients, and is an important advancement in risk adjustment and benchmarking for this population.

Modeling severe functional impairment or death following ECPR in pediatric cardiac patients: Planning for an interventional trial.

AIM: We aimed to characterize extracorporeal CPR (ECPR) outcomes in our center and to model prediction of severe functional impairment or death at discharge. METHODS: All ECPR events between 2011 and 2019 were reviewed. The primary outcome measure was severe functional impairment or death at discharge (Functional Status Score [FSS] ≥ 16). Organ dysfunction was graded using the Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction Score-2, neuroimaging using the modified Alberta Stroke Program Early Computed Tomography Score. Multivariable logistic regression was used to model FSS ≥ 16 at discharge. RESULTS: Of the 214 patients who underwent ECPR, 182 (median age 148 days, IQR 14-827) had an in-hospital cardiac arrest and congenital heart disease and were included in the analysis. Of the 110 patients who underwent neuroimaging, 52 (47%) had hypoxic-ischemic injury and 45 (41%) had hemorrhage. In-hospital mortality was 52% at discharge. Of these, 87% died from the withdrawal of life-sustaining therapies; severe neurologic injury was a contributing factor in the decision to withdraw life-sustaining therapies in 50%. The median FSS among survivors was 8 (IQR 6-8), and only one survivor had severe functional impairment. At 6 months, mortality was 57%, and the median FSS among survivors was 6 (IQR 6-8, n = 79). Predictive models identified FSS at admission, single ventricle physiology, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) duration, mean PELOD-2, and worst mASPECTS (or DWI-ASPECTS) as independent predictors of FSS ≥ 16 (AUC = 0.931) and at 6 months (AUC = 0.924). CONCLUSION: Mortality and functional impairment following ECPR in children remain high. It is possible to model severe functional impairment or death at discharge with high accuracy using daily post-ECPR data up to 28 days. This represents a prognostically valuable tool and may identify endpoints for future interventional trials.