Global AIDS Reporting-2001 to 2015: Lessons for Monitoring the Sustainable Development Goals.

Since 2001 the UNAIDS Secretariat has retained the responsibility for monitoring progress towards global commitments on HIV/AIDS. Key critical characteristics of the reporting system were assessed for the reporting period from 2004 to 2014 and analyses were undertaken of response rates and core indicator performance. Country submission rates ranged from 102 (53%) Member States in 2004 to 186 (96%) in 2012. There was great variance in response rates for specific indicators, with the highest response rates for treatment-related indicators. The Global AIDS reporting system has improved substantially over time and has provided key trend data on responses to the HIV epidemic, serving as the global accountability mechanism and providing reference data on the global AIDS response. It will be critical that reporting systems continue to evolve to support the monitoring of the Sustainable Development Goals, in view of ending the AIDS epidemic as a public health threat by 2030.

The epidemiology of HIV infection in Morocco: systematic review and data synthesis.

Morocco has made significant strides in building its HIV research capacity. Based on a wealth of empirical data, the objective of this study was to conduct a comprehensive and systematic literature review and analytical synthesis of HIV epidemiological evidence in this country. Data were retrieved using three major sources of literature and data. HIV transmission dynamics were found to be focused in high-risk populations, with female sex workers (FSWs) and clients contributing the largest share of new HIV infections. There is a pattern of emerging epidemics among some high-risk populations, and some epidemics, particularly among FSWs, appear to be established and stable. The scale of the local HIV epidemics and populations affected show highly heterogeneous geographical distribution. To optimize the national HIV response, surveillance and prevention efforts need to be expanded among high-risk populations and in geographic settings where low intensity and possibly concentrated HIV epidemics are emerging or are already endemic.

Estimates of HIV burden in emergencies.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the proportion of people living with HIV who are being affected by emergencies. METHODS: Emergencies were defined as conflict, natural disaster and/or displacement. Country-specific estimates of populations affected by emergencies were developed based on eight publicly available databases and sources. These estimates were calculated as proportions and then combined with updated country-level HIV estimates for the years 2003, 2005 and 2006 to obtain estimates of the number of men, women and children living with HIV who were also affected by emergencies. RESULTS: In 2006, 1.8 (range 1.3-2.5) million people living with HIV (PLHIV) were also affected by conflict, disaster or displacement, representing 5.4% (range 4.0-7.6%) of the global number of PLHIV. In the same year, an estimated 930 000 (range 660 000-1.3 million) women and 150 000 (range 110 000-230 000) children under 15 years living with HIV were affected by emergencies. In emergency settings, the estimated numbers of PLHIV in 2003 and 2005 were 2.6 million (range 2.0-3.4 million) and 1.7 million (range 1.4-2.1 million), respectively, representing 7.9% and 5.1% of the global number of PLHIV). CONCLUSIONS: These estimates provide a rationale to ensure that HIV interventions are integrated into rapid assessment of all emergency and preparedness and response plans to prevent HIV infections and address excess suffering, morbidity and mortality among these often overlooked vulnerable groups.

Estimates of HIV burden in emegencies

Objective: To quantify the proportion of people living with HIV who being infected by emergencies. Methods: Emergencies were defined as conflict, natural disaster and/or displacement. Country-specific estimates of populations affected by emergencies were developed based on eight publicly available databases and sources. These estimates were calculated as proportions and then combined with updated country-level HIV estimates for the years 2003, 2005 and 2006 to obtain estimated of hte number of men, women and children living with HIV who were also affected by emergencies. Results: In 2006, 1.8 (range 1.3-2.5) million people living with HIV (PLHIV) were also affected by conflict, disaster or displacement, representing 5.4% (range 4.0-7.6%) of the global number of PLHIV. In the same year, an estimated 930 000 (range 660 000-1.3 million) women and 150 000 (range 110 000-230 000) children under 15 years living wiht HIV were affected by emergencies . In emergency settings, the estimated numbers of PLHIV in 2003 and 2005 were 2.6 million (range 2.0-3.4 million) and 1.7 million (range 1.4-2.1 million), respectively, representing 7.9% abd 5.1% of the global number of PLHIV. Conclusions: These estimates provide a rationale to ensure that HIV interventions are integrated into rapid assessment of all emergency and preparedness and response plans to prevent HIV infections and address excess suffering, morbity and mortality among these often overlooled vulnerable groups. (AU)

National population based HIV prevalence surveys in sub-Saharan Africa: results and implications for HIV and AIDS estimates.

BACKGROUND: Sentinel surveillance among pregnant women attending antenatal clinics (ANCs) has been the main source of information on HIV trends in sub-Saharan Africa. These data have also been used to generate national HIV and AIDS estimates. New technologies and resources have allowed many countries to conduct national population based surveys that include HIV prevalence measurement, as an additional source of information on the AIDS epidemic. METHODS: The authors reviewed the reports of 20 national population based surveys from 19 countries carried out in sub-Saharan Africa since 2001. They examined the sampling methodology, HIV testing and response rates, and female:male and urban:rural prevalence ratios. They also constructed adjusted prevalence scenarios assuming different relative risks for survey non-responders. RESULTS: The national population based surveys vary considerably in quality, as reflected in the household response rate (ranging from 75.4% to 99.7%), women's testing rate (ranging from 68.2% to 97.3%), and men's testing rate (ranging from 62.2% to 95.4%), while for some surveys detailed response information is lacking. While 95% confidence intervals around the female:male and urban:rural prevalence ratios in individual countries are large, the median female:male ratio of the combined set of surveys results is 1.5 and the median urban:rural ratio 1.7. A scenario assuming that non-responders have twice the HIV prevalence of those who fully participated in the survey suggests that individual non-response could result in an adjusted HIV prevalence 1.03 to 1.34 times higher than the observed prevalence. CONCLUSIONS: Population based surveys can provide useful information on HIV prevalence levels and distribution. This information is being used to improve national HIV and AIDS estimates. Further refinements in data collection, analysis, and reporting, combined with high participation rates, can further improve HIV and AIDS estimates at national and regional level.

Measuring trends in prevalence and incidence of HIV infection in countries with generalised epidemics.

OBJECTIVE: Review of recent data and practice to derive guidance on questions relating to the measurement and analysis of trends in HIV prevalence and incidence. RESULTS: HIV prevalence among pregnant women attending antenatal clinics (ANCs) remains the principal data source to inform trends in the epidemic. Other data sources are: less available, representative of a small section of the population (sex workers, occupational groups), subject to additional bias (for example, voluntary counselling and testing service statistics), or are not yet available for multiple years (national surveys). Validity of HIV prevalence results may change over time due to improvements in HIV tests per se and implementation of laboratory quality assurance systems. The newer laboratory tests for recent infections require further validation and development of methodology to derive estimates of HIV incidence. CONCLUSIONS: Issues to consider during statistical analyses of trends among ANC attendees are: inclusion of consistent sites only, use of confidence intervals, stratification by site when performing a statistical test for trend, the need for at least three observations in a surveillance system with data collection every one to two years, and sound judgement. Trends in HIV prevalence among pregnant 15-24 year olds attending ANCs can be used to approximate trends in incidence. Indepth small area research studies are useful to inform the interpretation of surveillance data and provide directly measured trends in prevalence and incidence. Modelling can assess changes over time in prevalence, incidence, and mortality at the same time. Modelling tools need to be further developed to allow incorporation of estimates of HIV incidence and mortality, as these data are likely to become available in the future. To increase their explanatory power, models should also be extended to incorporate programmatic inputs.

The UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package: a software package to estimate and project national HIV epidemics.

This paper describes the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) for estimating and projecting HIV prevalence levels in countries with generalised epidemics. The paper gives an overall summary of the software and interface. It describes the process of defining and modelling a national epidemic in terms of locally relevant sub-epidemics and the four epidemiological parameters used to fit a curve to produce the prevalence trends in the epidemic. It also provides an example of using the EPP in a country with a generalised epidemic. The paper discusses the strengths and weaknesses of the software and its envisaged future developments.

The workbook approach to making estimates and projecting future scenarios of HIV/AIDS in countries with low level and concentrated epidemics.

This paper describes an approach to making estimates and short term projections of future scenarios of HIV/AIDS in countries with low level and concentrated epidemics. This approach focuses on identifying populations which through their behaviour are at higher risk of infection with HIV or who are exposed through the risk behaviour of their sexual partners. Estimates of the size and HIV prevalence of these populations allow the total number of HIV infected people in a country or region to be estimated. Subsequently, assumptions about the possible level and timing of saturation of HIV prevalence among each population can be used to explore future scenarios of HIV prevalence. The basic structure of the software used to make estimates and projections is described. This software includes a set of consistency and audit checks to help exclude unrealistic projections. The paper also discusses the strengths and weakness to this approach to making estimates and projections of HIV/AIDS in countries with low level and concentrated epidemics.

A global analysis of trends in the quality of HIV sero-surveillance.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the quality of HIV sero-surveillance systems in countries by 2002, as well as trends between 1995 and 2002. METHODS: The quality of countries' surveillance systems was scored for five years: 1995, 1997, 1999, 2001, and 2002. Sero-surveillance data were compiled from the US Census Bureau's HIV/AIDS Surveillance Database, the EuroHIV database, and from countries' national HIV surveillance reports that were available to WHO/UNAIDS. The quality of systems was scored according to the level of the countries' epidemic. RESULTS: There has been a large variation in the quality of HIV surveillance systems across the 132 countries by type of the epidemic and over time from 1995 to 2002. Over the 1995-2002 period the number of countries with a fully implemented system decreased from 57 (43%) in 1995 to 48 (36%) in 2002. The proportion of countries with a fully implemented system was 58%, 34%, and 10% in countries with a generalised, concentrated, and low level epidemic, respectively. In the 53 countries with generalised epidemics the number of countries with a fully implemented system increased from 24 (45%) in 2001 to 31 (58%) in 2002. CONCLUSION: Many countries still have poor functioning HIV surveillance systems and require urgent strengthening. Countries should monitor and evaluate their own HIV surveillance systems and examine whether the systems are appropriate and adequate.

Uncertainty in estimates of HIV/AIDS: the estimation and application of plausibility bounds.

OBJECTIVES: To establish the accuracy of the country specific estimates of HIV prevalence, incidence, and AIDS mortality published every 2 years by UNAIDS and WHO. METHODS: We review sources of error in the data used to generate national HIV/AIDS and where possible estimate their statistical properties. We use numerical and approximate analytic methods to estimate the combined impact of these errors on HIV/AIDS estimates. Heuristic rules are then derived to produce plausible bounds about these estimates for countries with different types of epidemic and different qualities of surveillance system. RESULTS: Although 95% confidence intervals (CIs) can be estimated for some sources of error, the sizes of other sources of error must be based on expert judgment. We therefore produce plausible bounds about HIV/AIDS estimates rather than statistical CIs. The magnitude of these bounds depends on the stage of the epidemic and the quality and coverage of the sentinel HIV surveillance system. The bounds for adult estimates are narrower than those for children, and those for prevalence are narrower than those for new infections. CONCLUSIONS: This paper presents a first attempt at a rigorous description of the errors associated with estimation of global statistics of an infectious disease. The proposed methods work well in countries with generalised epidemics (>1% adult HIV prevalence) where the quality of surveillance is good. Although methods have also been derived for countries with low level or concentrated epidemics, more data on the biases in the estimation process are required.

Cervicovaginal secretory antibodies to human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) that block viral transcytosis through tight epithelial barriers in highly exposed HIV-1-seronegative African women.

Antibodies to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) of the IgA, IgG, and IgM isotypes and high levels of the HIV suppressive beta-chemokine RANTES (regulated on activation, normally T cell expressed and secreted) were found in the cervicovaginal secretions (CVSs) of 7.5% of 342 multiply and repeatedly exposed African HIV-seronegative female sex workers. The antibodies are part of a local compartmentalized secretory immune response to HIV, since they are present in vaginal fluids that are free of contaminating semen. Cervicovaginal antibodies showed a reproducible pattern of reactivity restricted to gp160 and p24. Locally produced anti-env antibodies exhibit reactivity toward the neutralizing ELDKWA epitope of gp41. Study results show that antibodies purified from CVSs block the transcytosis of cell-associated HIV through a tight epithelial monolayer in vitro. These findings suggest that genital resistance to HIV may involve HIV-specific cervicovaginal antibody responses in a minority of highly exposed HIV-seronegative women in association with other protecting factors, such as local production of HIV-suppressive chemokines.

Where do sex workers go for health care? A community based study in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire.

OBJECTIVES: To describe health seeking behaviour of female sex workers in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire. METHODS: A population based survey among a representative sample of 500 female sex workers and six focus group discussions. RESULTS: The sites of first encounter for care for the last STI episode included a public hospital or health centre (28%), a private clinic (16%), a confidential clinic (13%), a pharmacy (13%), and the informal sector (23%). The agreement between preferred and actual services used was weak (kappa 0.16). CONCLUSIONS: Sex workers expressed interest in seeking STI care in a wide range of public and private healthcare facilities. Those services should be upgraded to better respond to their sexual health needs.

Effect of interventions to control sexually transmitted disease on the incidence of HIV infection in female sex workers.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the seroincidence of HIV infection among female sex workers in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire before and during an intervention study to control sexually transmitted diseases (STD) and to study the effect of two STD diagnosis and treatment strategies on the prevalence of STD and on the seroincidence of HIV infection. METHOD: A screening facility for STD and HIV had been available since October 1992 for female sex workers. From June 1994, women who were HIV seronegative or HIV-2 positive during the screening could enroll in the intervention study in which participants reported once a month to a confidential clinic where they received health education, condoms and STD treatment if indicated. Women in the study were randomized either to a basic STD diagnosis and treatment strategy, which included a gynecologic examination when symptomatic, or to an intensive strategy that included a gynecologic examination regardless of symptoms. An outcome assessment every 6 months included a gynecologic examination, HIV serology and laboratory tests for STD. RESULTS: Of 542 women enrolled in the study, 225 (42%) had at least one outcome assessment. The HIV-1 seroincidence rate during the intervention study was significantly lower than before the study (6.5 versus 16.3 per 100 person-years; P = 0.02). During the study, the HIV-1 seroincidence rate was slightly lower in the intensive than in the basic strategy (5.3 versus 7.6 per 100 person-years; P = 0.5). CONCLUSION: National AIDS control programs should consider adopting as policy the type of integrated approach used in this intervention study for HIV prevention in female sex workers.

Epidemiological analysis of the quality of HIV sero-surveillance in the world: how well do we track the epidemic?

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this paper was to analyse the quality of HIV/AIDS sentinel surveillance systems in countries and the resulting quality of the data used to make estimates of HIV/AIDS prevalence and mortality. METHODS: Available data on sero-surveillance of HIV/AIDS in countries were compiled in the process of making the end of 1999 estimates of HIV/AIDS. These data came primarily from the HIV/AIDS Surveillance Database developed by the United States Census Bureau, from a database maintained by the European Centre for the Epidemiological Monitoring of AIDS and all country reports on sentinel surveillance that had been provided to World Health Organization or UNAIDS. Procedures were developed to score quality of surveillance systems based on four dimensions of quality: timeliness and frequency; appropriateness of groups; consistency of sites over time; and coverage provided by the system. In total, the surveillance systems from 167 countries were analysed. RESULTS: Forty-seven of the 167 countries whose surveillance systems were rated were judged to have fully implemented sentinel surveillance systems; 51 were judged to have systems that had some or most aspects of a good HIV surveillance system in place and 69 were rated as having poorly functioning or non-existent surveillance systems. CONCLUSION: This analysis suggests that the quality of HIV surveillance varies considerably. The majority of countries most affected by HIV/AIDS have systems that are providing sufficient sero-prevalence data for tracking the epidemic and making reasonable estimates of HIV prevalence. However, many countries have poor systems and strengthening these is an urgent priority.

Lack of effect of chemokine receptor CCR2b gene polymorphism (64I) on HIV-1 plasma RNA viral load and immune activation among HIV-1 seropositive female workers in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire.

The prevalence of the CCR2b-V64I mutation among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-seropositive and -seronegative female workers and the potential effect of heterozygosity of this mutation on HIV-1 plasma RNA viral load and markers of immune activation were assessed. CCR2b-V64I was detected by polymerase chain reaction, followed by restriction enzymes analysis; plasma viral load was measured by the Amplicor HIV-1 monitor assay and CD4(+) T-cell counts and markers of immune activation by standard three-color FACscan flow cytometry. Of the 260 female workers, 56 (21.5%) were heterozygous for CCR2b-V64I, and 8 (3%) were homozygous. Of the 99 HIV-seronegative female workers, 19 (19.2%) were heterozygous for the CCR2b-V64I mutation compared with 37 (23%) of the 161 HIV-seropositive FSW (P = 0.47). In a univariate analysis of viral load among HIV-seropositive FSW, no difference was noted between those heterozygous for or without the mutation; both groups had plasma viral loads of 5.0 log(10) copies/ml. After controlling for the effects of CD4(+) T-cell counts in a multivariate analysis, no significant difference was observed between the groups in viral load or in markers of immune activation. The data suggest that the presence of the CCR2b mutation has no effect on HIV-1 plasma viral load and markers of immune activation in our study population. The finding that the frequency of this mutation is similar in HIV-seropositive and -seronegative female workers suggests that its presence is not associated with increased risk of HIV infection.

HIV surveillance among female sex workers.

Female sex workers are at high risk for infection with HIV, and their clients may act as a bridging population by spreading HIV to the general population. Comprehensive HIV surveillance among sex workers includes surveillance of HIV infection, of sexually transmitted infections and of risk behavior. Surveillance of HIV infection among sex workers is critical for countries with low-level or concentrated HIV epidemics, and can help in monitoring the response to the HIV epidemic in countries with a generalized epidemic. Sex workers are a vulnerable population, and particular attention needs to be paid to human rights issues including consent, confidentiality and stigma. Collaborations with key players in the local sex work scene--sex workers themselves in the first place--and alliances with salient institutions and groups are key to the success of surveillance among sex workers. Surveillance activities should have a strong link to interventions targeted at sex workers. Surveillance for HIV infection among sex workers can be institution- or community-based. Institutional settings include screening programs for registered sex workers, of sexually transmitted diseases clinics, and re-education camps. Specific sources of bias need to be considered in different settings, and must be measured--through the collection of socio-demographic and behavioral data--to allow a correct interpretation of prevalence data and time trends. Community-based HIV infection surveillance can be conducted in a probability sample of the sex worker population, thereby reducing selection bias. This requires the mapping of sex workers' contact venues, and drawing a random sample from the resulting sampling frame.