Urine high-risk human papillomavirus testing as an alternative to routine cervical screening: A comparative diagnostic accuracy study of two urine collection devices using a randomised study design trial.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the sensitivity of human papillomavirus (HPV) tested urine to detect high-grade cervical precancer (cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2+ [CIN2+]) using two urine collection devices. DESIGN: Randomised controlled trial. SETTING: St Mary's Hospital, Manchester, UK. POPULATION: Colposcopy attendees with abnormal cervical screening; a total of 480 participants were randomised. Matched urine and cervical samples were available for 235 and 230 participants using a first-void urine (FVU)-collection device and standard pot, respectively. METHODS: Urine was self-collected and mixed with preservative - randomised 1:1 to FVU-collection device (Novosanis Colli-pee® 10 mL with urine conservation medium [UCM]) or standard pot. Matched clinician-collected cervical samples were taken before colposcopy. HPV testing used Roche cobas® 8800. A questionnaire evaluated urine self-sampling acceptability. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome measured sensitivity of HPV-tested urine (FVU-collection device and standard pot) for CIN2+ detection. Secondary outcomes compared HPV-tested cervical and urine samples for CIN2+ and evaluated the acceptability of urine self-sampling. RESULTS: Urine HPV test sensitivity for CIN2+ was higher with the FVU-collection device (90.3%, 95% CI 83.7%-94.9%, 112/124) than the standard pot (73.4%, 95% CI 64.7%-80.9%, 91/124, p = 0.0005). The relative sensitivity of FVU-device-collected urine was 0.92 (95% CI 0.87-0.97, pMcN = 0.004) compared with cervical, considering that all women were referred after a positive cervical HPV test. Urine-based sampling was acceptable to colposcopy attendees. CONCLUSIONS: Testing of FVU-device-collected urine for HPV was superior to standard-pot-collected urine in colposcopy attendees and has promising sensitivity for CIN2+ detection. General population HPV testing of FVU-device-collected urine will establish its clinical performance and acceptability as an alternative to routine cervical screening.

Long-term prediction by DNA methylation of high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia: Results of the ARTISTIC cohort.

Methylation markers have shown potential for triaging high-risk HPV-positive (hrHPV+) women to identify those at increased risk of invasive cervical cancer (ICC). Our aim was to assess the performance of the S5 DNA methylation classifier for predicting incident high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) and ICC among hrHPV+ women in the ARTISTIC screening trial cohort. The S5 classifier, comprising target regions of tumour suppressor gene EPB41L3 and L1 and L2 regions of HPV16, HPV18, HPV31, and HPV33, was assayed by pyrosequencing in archived hrHPV+ liquid-based samples from 343 women with high-grade disease (139 CIN2, 186 CIN3, and 18 ICC) compared to 800 hrHPV+ controls. S5 DNA methylation correlated directly with increasing severity of disease and inversely with lead time to diagnosis. S5 could discriminate between hrHPV+ women who developed CIN3 or ICC and hrHPV+ controls (p <.0001) using samples taken on average 5 years before diagnosis. This relationship was independent of cytology at baseline. The S5 test showed much higher sensitivity than HPV16/18 genotyping for identifying prevalent CIN3 (93% vs. 61%, p = .01) but lower specificity (50% vs. 66%, p <.0001). The S5 classifier identified most women at high risk of developing precancer and missed very few prevalent advanced lesions thus appearing to be an objective test for triage of hrHPV+ women. The combination of methylation of host and HPV genes enables S5 to combine the predictive power of methylation with HPV genotyping to identify hrHPV-positive women who are at highest risk of developing CIN3 and ICC in the future.

Long-term risks of invasive cervical cancer following HPV infection: follow-up of two screening cohorts in Manchester.

BACKGROUND: Long-term follow-up of large cohorts is needed to determine the effects of HPV and screening on CIN3 (grade 3 cervical intraepithelial neoplasia) and ICC (invasive cervical cancer). METHODS: Women were recruited when attending for routine cervical screening in Greater Manchester, UK: 1987-93 for the Manchester Cohort (MC: 47,625 women) and 2001-03 for the ARTISTIC Cohort (AC: 24,496 women). Both were followed through national registration for cancer incidence and mortality to 2020. RESULTS: Risk patterns following HPV infection differed for CIN3 and ICC. Risk of ICC in the MC rises for 30 years following a single positive HPV test, reaching 2.5% (95% CI: 1.3-4.5%). A similar pattern was seen in the AC, but the risks of cancer were approximately halved. CIN3 was diagnosed much sooner in the AC due to more efficient cytology. More sensitive HPV testing was able to better predict future risk. CONCLUSION: The sensitivity of HPV testing and cytology influences the CIN3 detection rate. Sensitive HPV testing enables effective risk stratification. Increased risk of ICC is observed 15-30 years after HPV infection. Women testing HPV + should be followed until their infection clears. Discharging women from screening programmes whilst they remain HPV + may not be safe, even if cytology and colposcopy tests are normal.

British nuclear test veteran family trios for the study of genetic risk.

The risk of radiation effects in children of individuals exposed to ionising radiation remains an ongoing concern for aged veterans of the British nuclear testing programme. The genetic and cytogenetic family trio (GCFT) study is the first study to obtain blood samples from a group of British nuclear test veterans and their families for the purposes of identifying genetic alterations in offspring as a consequence of historical paternal exposure to ionising radiation. In this report, we describe the processes for recruitment and sampling, and provide a general description of the study population recruited. In total, blood samples were received from 91 (49 test and 42 control) families representing veteran servicemen from the army, Royal Air Force and Royal Navy. This translated to an overall response rate of 14% (49/353) for test veterans and 4% (42/992) for control veterans (excluding responders known to be ineligible). Due to the lack of dose information available, test veterans were allocated to a three-point exposure rank. Thirty (61%) test veterans were ranked in the lower group. Nineteen (39%) of the 49 test veterans were classified in the mid (5 veterans; 10%)/high (14 veterans; 29%) exposure ranks and included 12 veterans previously identified as belonging to the special groups or listed in health physics documents. An increased number of test veteran families (20%), compared with control families (5%), self-reported offspring with congenital abnormalities (p= 0.03). Whether this observation in this small group is reflective of the entire UK test veteran cohort or whether it is selection bias requires further work. The cohort described here represent an important and unique family trio grouping whose participation is enabling genetic studies, as part of the GCFT study, to be carried out. The outcomes of these studies will be published elsewhere. ISRCTN Registry: 17461668.

Vitamin D supplementation to prevent acute respiratory infections: a systematic review and meta-analysis of aggregate data from randomised controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: A 2017 meta-analysis of data from 25 randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of vitamin D supplementation for the prevention of acute respiratory infections (ARIs) revealed a protective effect of this intervention. We aimed to examine the link between vitamin D supplementation and prevention of ARIs in an updated meta-analysis. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Web of Science, and the ClinicalTrials.gov registry for studies listed from database inception to May 1, 2020. Double-blind RCTs of vitamin D3, vitamin D2, or 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) supplementation for any duration, with a placebo or low-dose vitamin D control, were eligible if they had been approved by a research ethics committee, and if ARI incidence was collected prospectively and prespecified as an efficacy outcome. Studies reporting results of long-term follow-up of primary RCTs were excluded. Aggregated study-level data, stratified by baseline 25(OH)D concentration and age, were obtained from study authors. Using the proportion of participants in each trial who had one or more ARIs, we did a random-effects meta-analysis to obtain pooled odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs to estimate the effect of vitamin D supplementation on the risk of having one or more ARIs (primary outcome) compared with placebo. Subgroup analyses were done to estimate whether the effects of vitamin D supplementation on the risk of ARI varied according to baseline 25(OH)D concentration (<25 nmol/L vs 25·0-49·9 nmol/L vs 50·0-74·9 nmol/L vs >75·0 nmol/L), vitamin D dose (daily equivalent of <400 international units [IU] vs 400-1000 IU vs 1001-2000 IU vs >2000 IU), dosing frequency (daily vs weekly vs once per month to once every 3 months), trial duration (≤12 months vs >12 months), age at enrolment (<1·00 years vs 1·00-15·99 years vs 16·00-64·99 years vs ≥65·00 years), and presence versus absence of airway disease (ie, asthma only, COPD only, or unrestricted). Risk of bias was assessed with the Cochrane Collaboration Risk of Bias Tool. The study was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42020190633. FINDINGS: We identified 1528 articles, of which 46 RCTs (75 541 participants) were eligible. Data for the primary outcome were obtained for 48 488 (98·1%) of 49 419 participants (aged 0-95 years) in 43 studies. A significantly lower proportion of participants in the vitamin D supplementation group had one or more ARIs (14 332 [61·3%] of 23 364 participants) than in the placebo group (14 217 [62·3%] of 22 802 participants), with an OR of 0·92 (95% CI 0·86-0·99; 37 studies; I2=35·6%, pheterogeneity=0·018). No significant effect of vitamin D supplementation on the risk of having one or more ARIs was observed for any of the subgroups defined by baseline 25(OH)D concentration. However, protective effects of supplementation were observed in trials in which vitamin D was given in a daily dosing regimen (OR 0·78 [95% CI 0·65-0·94]; 19 studies; I2=53·5%, pheterogeneity=0·003), at daily dose equivalents of 400-1000 IU (0·70 [0·55-0·89]; ten studies; I2=31·2%, pheterogeneity=0·16), for a duration of 12 months or less (0·82 [0·72-0·93]; 29 studies; I2=38·1%, pheterogeneity=0·021), and to participants aged 1·00-15·99 years at enrolment (0·71 [0·57-0·90]; 15 studies; I2=46·0%, pheterogeneity=0·027). No significant interaction between allocation to the vitamin D supplementation group versus the placebo group and dose, dose frequency, study duration, or age was observed. In addition, no significant difference in the proportion of participants who had at least one serious adverse event in the vitamin supplementation group compared with the placebo group was observed (0·97 [0·86-1·07]; 36 studies; I2=0·0%, pheterogeneity=0·99). Risk of bias within individual studies was assessed as being low for all but three trials. INTERPRETATION: Despite evidence of significant heterogeneity across trials, vitamin D supplementation was safe and overall reduced the risk of ARI compared with placebo, although the risk reduction was small. Protection was associated with administration of daily doses of 400-1000 IU for up to 12 months, and age at enrolment of 1·00-15·99 years. The relevance of these findings to COVID-19 is not known and requires further investigation. FUNDING: None.

Diagnostic accuracy of cervical cancer screening and screening-triage strategies among women living with HIV-1 in Burkina Faso and South Africa: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Cervical cancer screening strategies using visual inspection or cytology may have suboptimal diagnostic accuracy for detection of precancer in women living with HIV (WLHIV). The optimal screen and screen-triage strategy, age to initiate, and frequency of screening for WLHIV remain unclear. This study evaluated the sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value of different cervical cancer strategies in WLHIV in Africa. METHODS AND FINDINGS: WLHIV aged 25-50 years attending HIV treatment centres in Burkina Faso (BF) and South Africa (SA) from 5 December 2011 to 30 October 2012 were enrolled in a prospective evaluation study of visual inspection using acetic acid (VIA) or visual inspection using Lugol's iodine (VILI), high-risk human papillomavirus DNA test (Hybrid Capture 2 [HC2] or careHPV), and cytology for histology-verified high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN2+/CIN3+) at baseline and endline, a median 16 months later. Among 1,238 women (BF: 615; SA: 623), median age was 36 and 34 years (p < 0.001), 28.6% and 49.6% ever had prior cervical cancer screening (p < 0.001), and 69.9% and 64.2% were taking ART at enrolment (p = 0.045) in BF and SA, respectively. CIN2+ prevalence was 5.8% and 22.4% in BF and SA (p < 0.001), respectively. VIA had low sensitivity for CIN2+ (44.7%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 36.9%-52.7%) and CIN3+ (56.1%, 95% CI 43.3%-68.3%) in both countries, with specificity for ≤CIN1 of 78.7% (95% CI 76.0%-81.3%). HC2 had sensitivity of 88.8% (95% CI 82.9%-93.2%) for CIN2+ and 86.4% (95% CI 75.7%-93.6%) for CIN3+. Specificity for ≤CIN1 was 55.4% (95% CI 52.2%-58.6%), and screen positivity was 51.3%. Specificity was higher with a restricted genotype (HPV16/18/31/33/35/45/52/58) approach (73.5%, 95% CI 70.6%-76.2%), with lower screen positivity (33.7%), although there was lower sensitivity for CIN3+ (77.3%, 95% CI 65.3%-86.7%). In BF, HC2 was more sensitive for CIN2+/CIN3+ compared to VIA/VILI (relative sensitivity for CIN2+ = 1.72, 95% CI 1.28-2.32; CIN3+: 1.18, 95% CI 0.94-1.49). Triage of HC2-positive women with VIA/VILI reduced the number of colposcopy referrals, but with loss in sensitivity for CIN2+ (58.1%) but not for CIN3+ (84.6%). In SA, cytology high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion or greater (HSIL+) had best combination of sensitivity (CIN2+: 70.1%, 95% CI 61.3%-77.9%; CIN3+: 80.8%, 95% CI 67.5%-90.4%) and specificity (81.6%, 95% CI 77.6%-85.1%). HC2 had similar sensitivity for CIN3+ (83.0%, 95% CI 70.2%-91.9%) but lower specificity compared to HSIL+ (42.7%, 95% CI 38.4%-47.1%; relative specificity = 0.57, 95% CI 0.52-0.63), resulting in almost twice as many referrals. Compared to HC2, triage of HC2-positive women with HSIL+ resulted in a 40% reduction in colposcopy referrals but was associated with some loss in sensitivity. CIN2+ incidence over a median 16 months was highest among VIA baseline screen-negative women (2.2%, 95% CI 1.3%-3.7%) and women who were baseline double-negative with HC2 and VIA (2.1%, 95% CI 1.3%-3.5%) and lowest among HC2 baseline screen-negative women (0.5%, 95% CI 0.1%-1.8%). Limitations of our study are that WLHIV included in the study may not reflect a contemporary cohort of WLHIV initiating ART in the universal ART era and that we did not evaluate HPV tests available in study settings today. CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort study among WLHIV in Africa, a human papillomavirus (HPV) test targeting 14 high-risk (HR) types had higher sensitivity to detect CIN2+ compared to visual inspection but had low specificity, although a restricted genotype approach targeting 8 HR types decreased the number of unnecessary colposcopy referrals. Cytology HSIL+ had optimal performance for CIN2+/CIN3+ detection in SA. Triage of HPV-positive women with HSIL+ maintained high specificity but with some loss in sensitivity compared to HC2 alone.

Costs and cost-effectiveness of cervical cancer screening strategies in women living with HIV in Burkina Faso: The HPV in Africa Research Partnership (HARP) study.

INTRODUCTION: This study estimated the costs and incremental cost per case detected of screening strategies for high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN2+) in women living with HIV (WLHIV) attending HIV clinics in Burkina Faso. METHODS: The direct healthcare provider costs of screening tests (visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA), VIA combined visual inspection with Lugol's iodine (VIA/VILI), cytology and a rapid HPV DNA test (careHPV)) and confirmatory tests (colposcopy, directed biopsy and systematic four-quadrant (4Q) biopsy) were collected alongside the HPV in Africa Research Partnership (HARP) study. A model was developed for a hypothetical cohort of 1000 WLHIV using data on CIN2+ prevalence and the sensitivity of the screening tests. Costs are reported in USD (2019). RESULTS: The study enrolled 554 WLHIV with median age 36 years (inter-quartile range, 31-41) and CIN2+ prevalence of 5.8%. The average cost per screening test ranged from US$3.2 for VIA to US$24.8 for cytology. Compared to VIA alone, the incremental cost per CIN2+ case detected was US$48 for VIA/VILI and US$814 for careHPV. Despite higher costs, careHPV was more sensitive for CIN2+ cases detected compared to VIA/VILI (97% and 56%, respectively). The cost of colposcopy was US$6.6 per person while directed biopsy was US$33.0 and 4Q biopsy was US$48.0. CONCLUSION: Depending on the willingness to pay for the detection of a case of cervical cancer, decision makers in Burkina Faso can consider a variety of cervical cancer screening strategies for WLHIV. While careHPV is more costly, it has the potential to be cost-effective depending on the willingness to pay threshold. Future research should explore the lifetime costs and benefits of cervical cancer screening to enable comparisons with interventions for other diseases.

CYP3A7*1C allele: linking premenopausal oestrone and progesterone levels with risk of hormone receptor-positive breast cancers.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological studies provide strong evidence for a role of endogenous sex hormones in the aetiology of breast cancer. The aim of this analysis was to identify genetic variants that are associated with urinary sex-hormone levels and breast cancer risk. METHODS: We carried out a genome-wide association study of urinary oestrone-3-glucuronide and pregnanediol-3-glucuronide levels in 560 premenopausal women, with additional analysis of progesterone levels in 298 premenopausal women. To test for the association with breast cancer risk, we carried out follow-up genotyping in 90,916 cases and 89,893 controls from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. All women were of European ancestry. RESULTS: For pregnanediol-3-glucuronide, there were no genome-wide significant associations; for oestrone-3-glucuronide, we identified a single peak mapping to the CYP3A locus, annotated by rs45446698. The minor rs45446698-C allele was associated with lower oestrone-3-glucuronide (-49.2%, 95% CI -56.1% to -41.1%, P = 3.1 × 10-18); in follow-up analyses, rs45446698-C was also associated with lower progesterone (-26.7%, 95% CI -39.4% to -11.6%, P = 0.001) and reduced risk of oestrogen and progesterone receptor-positive breast cancer (OR = 0.86, 95% CI 0.82-0.91, P = 6.9 × 10-8). CONCLUSIONS: The CYP3A7*1C allele is associated with reduced risk of hormone receptor-positive breast cancer possibly mediated via an effect on the metabolism of endogenous sex hormones in premenopausal women.

Cohabitation, infection and breast cancer risk.

For 50 years, the effect of age at first birth (AFB) has been thought to explain the strong association between breast cancer risk and age at first marriage (AFM), which was first reported in 1926. The independent effects of AFM, AFB and number of sexual partners adjusted for parity and other risk factors were estimated in reanalysis of a large international case-control study conducted in 1979 to 1982 (2274 breast cancers, 18209 controls) by unconditional logistic regression. Respective AFB and AFM breast cancer odds ratios (ORs) for ≥31 years relative to ≤18 years were 3.01 (95% CI 2.44-3.71; P(trend) < .0001) and 3.24 (95% CI 2.62-4.01; P(trend) < .0001) in univariate analyses. Among married parous women, these ORs fell to 1.38 (95% CI 0.98-1.95; P(trend) < .03) for AFB and 1.70 (95% CI 1.17-2.46; P(trend) < .002) for AFM when fitted together in multivariate analysis including other risk factors. A similar adjusted OR for AFM ≥ 31 years relative to ≤18 years was seen among married nulliparous women (OR 1.71, 95% CI 0.98-2.98; P(trend) < .001). AFM (a surrogate for age at starting prolonged cohabitation) is thus strongly associated with breast cancer risk. This suggests an effect of close contact. Identifying the (probably infective) mechanism might lead to effective prevention of breast cancer. The independent effect of AFB is smaller and could be due to residual confounding.

Performance of the Swede score to predict cervical intraepithelial neoplasia in women with HIV-1 in Johannesburg, South Africa.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the performance of the Swede score to detect cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) in women with HIV-1 in Johannesburg, South Africa. METHODS: A cross-sectional study using secondary data analysis from the HPV in Africa Research Partnership (HARP) study that compared the performance of three different screening tests to detect CIN. Colposcopy was performed on any woman who screened positive and findings were recorded using the Swede score. A biopsy of any lesion and a four-quadrant biopsy was taken. The score was evaluated against a histological diagnosis of >CIN1. The sensistivity, specificity, PPV and NPV for each score was calculated. RESULTS: Median age and CD4+ count of the 576 women eligible from the Johannesburg cohort was 34 years (IQR, 30-39) and 427 cells/mm3 (IQR, 323-579), respectively. Almost two-thirds (64%) were on ART and about 21% had CIN 2+ on histology. A Swede score of 5 or greater had the best combination of sensitivity and specificity for CIN 2+ with an AUC of 0.72 (95% CI, 0.68-0.76) corresponding to a sensitivity of 72.1 (95% CI, 63.5-79.6) and specificity of 71.8 (95% CI, 67.4-75.9). CONCLUSION: The Swede score can assist in determining whether women with HIV/AIDS should have treatment at the first colposcopy visit versus those who may be followed up, thereby individualizing treatment.

Vitamin D supplementation to prevent acute respiratory infections: systematic review and meta-analysis of aggregate data from randomised controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: A 2017 meta-analysis of data from 25 randomised controlled trials of vitamin D supplementation for the prevention of acute respiratory infections revealed a protective effect of the intervention. Since then, 20 new RCTs have been completed. METHODS: Systematic review and meta-analysis of data from randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of vitamin D for ARI prevention using a random effects model. Pre-specified sub-group analyses were done to determine whether effects of vitamin D on risk of ARI varied according to baseline 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) concentration or dosing regimen. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), Web of Science and the ClinicalTrials.gov registry from inception to 1st May 2020. Double-blind RCTs of supplementation with vitamin D or calcidiol, of any duration, were eligible if they were approved by a Research Ethics Committee and if ARI incidence was collected prospectively and pre-specified as an efficacy outcome. Aggregate data, stratified by baseline 25(OH)D concentration, were obtained from study authors. The study was registered with PROSPERO (no. CRD42020190633). FINDINGS: We identified 45 eligible RCTs (total 73,384 participants). Data were obtained for 46,331 (98.0%) of 47,262 participants in 42 studies, aged 0 to 95 years. For the primary comparison of vitamin D supplementation vs. placebo, the intervention reduced risk of ARI overall (Odds Ratio [OR] 0.91, 95% CI 0.84 to 0.99; P for heterogeneity 0.01). No statistically significant effect of vitamin D was seen for any of the sub-groups defined by baseline 25(OH)D concentration. However, protective effects were seen for trials in which vitamin D was given using a daily dosing regimen (OR 0.75, 95% CI 0.61 to 0.93); at daily dose equivalents of 400-1000 IU (OR 0.70, 95% CI 0.55 to 0.89); and for a duration of ≤12 months (OR 0.82, 95% CI 0.72 to 0.93). No significant interaction was seen between allocation to vitamin D vs. placebo and dose frequency, dose size, or study duration. Vitamin D did not influence the proportion of participants experiencing at least one serious adverse event (OR 0.97, 95% CI 0.86 to 1.09). Risk of bias within individual studies was assessed as being low for all but three trials. A funnel plot showed left-sided asymmetry (P=0.008, Egger's test). INTERPRETATION: Vitamin D supplementation was safe and reduced risk of ARI, despite evidence of significant heterogeneity across trials. Protection was associated with administration of daily doses of 400-1000 IU vitamin D for up to 12 months. The relevance of these findings to COVID-19 is not known and requires investigation. FUNDING: None.

High-dose oral vitamin D supplementation and mortality in people aged 65-84 years: the VIDAL cluster feasibility RCT of open versus double-blind individual randomisation.

BACKGROUND: Randomised controlled trials demonstrating improved longevity are needed to justify high-dose vitamin D supplementation for older populations. OBJECTIVES: To demonstrate the feasibility of a large trial (n ≈ 20,000) of high-dose vitamin D in people aged 65-84 years through general practitioner (GP) practices, and to cluster randomise participating practices between open-label and double-blind randomisation to compare effects on recruitment, compliance and contamination. DESIGN: Twenty GP practices were randomised in matched pairs between open-label and double-blind allocation. Within each practice, patients were individually randomised to vitamin D or control (i.e. no treatment or placebo). Participants were invited to attend their GP practice to provide a blood sample and complete a lifestyle questionnaire at recruitment and again at 2 years. Randomisation by telephone followed receipt of a serum corrected calcium assay confirming eligibility (< 2.65 nmol/l). Treatment compliance was reported by quarterly follow-up forms sent and returned by e-mail or post (participant choice). GP visits and infections were abstracted from GP records. Hospital attendances, cancer diagnoses and deaths were ascertained by linkage to Hospital Episode Statistics and national registration through NHS Digital. SETTING: GP practices in England. PARTICIPANTS: Recruitment opened in October 2013 and closed in January 2015. A total of 1615 registered patients aged 65-84 years were randomised: 407 to vitamin D and 421 to no treatment in open practices; 395 to vitamin D and 392 to placebo in blind practices. INTERVENTIONS: There was a 24-month treatment period: 12 monthly doses (100,000 IU of vitamin D3 or placebo as 5 ml oily solution) were posted after randomisation and at 1 year (100,000 IU per month corresponds to 3300 IU per day). Reminders were sent monthly by e-mail, text message or post. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Recruitment, compliance, contamination and change in circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] from baseline to 2 years. RESULTS: Participation rates (randomised/invited) were 15.0% in open practices and 13.4% in double-blind practices (p = 0.7). The proportion still taking study medication at 2 years was 91.2% in open practices and 89.2% in double-blind practices (p = 0.4). The proportion of control participants taking > 400 IU vitamin D per day at 2 years was 5.0% in open practices and 4.8% in double-blind practices. Mean serum 25(OH)D concentration was 51.5 nmol/l [95% confidence interval (CI) 50.2 to 52.8 nmol/l] with 82.6% of participants < 75 nmol/l at baseline. At 2 years, this increased to 109.6 nmol/l (95% CI 107.1 to 112.1 nmol/l) with 12.0% < 75 nmol/l in those allocated to vitamin D and was unaltered at 51.8 nmol/l (95% CI 49.8 to 53.8 nmol/l) in those allocated to no vitamin D (no treatment or placebo). CONCLUSIONS: A trial could recruit 20,000 participants aged 65-84 years through 200 GP practices over 2 years. Approximately 80% would be expected to adhere to allocated treatment (vitamin D or placebo) for 5 years. The trial could be conducted entirely by e-mail in participants aged < 80 years, but some participants aged 80-84 years would require postal follow-up. Recruitment and treatment compliance would be similar and contamination (self-administration of vitamin D) would be minimal, whether control participants are randomised openly to no treatment with no contact during the trial or randomised double-blind to placebo with monthly reminders. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN46328341 and EudraCT database 2011-003699-34. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 10. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

High-dose vitamin D may reduce the risk of many diseases, but without large randomised controlled trials the evidence will remain inconclusive. We therefore proposed the Vitamin D and Longevity (VIDAL) trial, with 20,000 older people randomised to either no vitamin D medication or vitamin D medication for 5 years. The VIDAL feasibility study was conducted to establish the procedures required for the main trial, including assessment of recruitment, compliance (taking study treatment as directed) and contamination (how many control participants started taking vitamin D). This was done in two sets of general practitioner (GP) practices: (1) 'open' practices, in which participants knew their treatment allocation (2 years of 100,000 IU vitamin D monthly or no treatment), and (2) 'double-blind' practices, in which participants and their GPs did not know whether they were taking vitamin D or placebo oil. We invited 11,376 men and women aged 65­84 years from 20 GP practices in England and 1615 (14%) took part. Ninety per cent of participants allocated to monthly oil took it for 2 years and few participants used vitamin supplements outside the trial, with no marked differences between open-label and double-blind arms. The best way to conduct the main trial will therefore depend on other considerations. A double-blind trial provides reliable evidence on effects where reporting could be influenced by you or your doctor knowing your treatment, which is important for many illnesses and any side effects of treatment. However, any long-term effects are likely to be considerably greater if treatment continues instead of stopping after 5 years when the main trial ends. An open trial is easier to conduct and, when it ends, those taking vitamin D can be offered a continuing supply so that the effect of lifelong treatment can be studied for major diseases and life expectancy, which are unlikely to be affected by individuals knowing whether or not they are taking vitamin D.

HPV testing compared with routine cytology in cervical screening: long-term follow-up of ARTISTIC RCT.

BACKGROUND: The National Screening Committee (NSC) based its recommendation that human papillomavirus (HPV) testing should replace cytology in primary cervical screening largely on the 2009 follow-up results of the ARTISTIC trial (A Randomised Trial In Screening To Improve Cytology). The NSC must now decide on screening intervals and triage policy. Options include extending the screening interval up to 10 years for human papillomavirus-negative (HPV-) women, delaying recall for human papillomavirus-positive (HPV+) women with normal cytology (as their infections are usually transient), and basing triage on full HPV typing. METHODS: In ARTISTIC, 24,510 women were recruited who were attending routine cervical cytology in Greater Manchester in 2001-3. The women were randomly allocated between revealing and concealing their HPV test results and were recalled every 3 years. After 2009, the women returned to routine cytological screening with recall every 3 years for those aged < 50 years, and every 5 years for those aged 50-64 years. We have followed the cohort to 2015 through national cancer registration for CIN3 (cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3) and cancer, and through linkage to the cervical screening call-recall system to obtain lifetime cytology records. RESULTS: The analysis comprised 24,496 women at round 1 and 13,591 women at round 2 (which was 30-48 months later). Follow-up via local histology laboratories and national cancer registration identified 505 cases of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or cervical cancer (CIN3+) (including 22 invasive cervical cancers). The cumulative CIN3+ risk 10 years after a negative HPV test [0.31%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.18% to 0.49%, in the revealed arm] was similar to that 3 years after negative cytology (0.30%, 95% CI 0.23% to 0.41%, in the concealed arm) and fell sharply with age, from 1.1% (95% CI 0.7% to 1.8%) in those women aged < 25 years to 0.08% (95% CI 0.03% to 0.20%) in those women aged > 50 years. The 10-year cumulative CIN3+ risk following a new HPV infection at round 2 was 3.4% (95% CI 2.1% to 5.4%). The highest risks were associated with type-specific persistent infections that, overall, resulted in a 10-year cumulative CIN3+ risk of 20.4% (95% CI 15.6% to 26.4%). CONCLUSIONS: We found a similar level of protection 10 years after a negative HPV test and 3 years after negative cytology. These data support a considerably longer screening interval after a negative HPV test than after a negative cytology test. About three-quarters of women with HPV infection and normal cytology clear their infections within about 3 years. Their risk of CIN3+ within this time frame is low (1.5%), suggesting that the current policy of annual repeat testing and referral after 2 years may be unnecessarily cautious. Approximately 40% of women who remained HPV+ had cleared their initial infection and acquired a new HPV type. The cumulative CIN3+ risks in women with type-specific persistent infections are about six times higher than in women with new infections. Triage strategies based on HPV persistence would, therefore, reduce unnecessary referral of women with new (and largely transient) infections. HPV assays that identify HPV types 31, 33, 45, 52 and 58 in addition to 16 and 18 could be useful in triage as well as in primary HPV testing. Similar results in recent routine HPV screening suggest that our results are generalisable despite changes in cytology and HPV assay methods. We are continuing to follow the ARTISTIC cohort into the new era of primary HPV screening. Future work will focus on the implications of more sensitive HPV testing for primary HPV screening policy and triage of HPV-positive women. Our results suggest that a more sensitive test is needed to detect occult CIN3 at high risk of progression to cancer, but this would substantially increase the overall HPV detection rate. Tests such as DNA (deoxyribonucleic acid) methylation for distinguishing HPV infection from neoplasia will be evaluated on stored samples and on further samples now being collected from women in the cohort who are still being screened. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 23, No. 28. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Human papillomavirus (HPV) causes cervical cancer. The latest scientific evidence shows that screening for HPV is better than screening for abnormal cytology with a 'smear' test, so HPV testing is being rolled out nationally. The main disadvantage is that more women will test positive and be referred for further tests. Most infections are harmless and clear without treatment, and balance must be achieved so that women who progress to CIN3 (pre-cancer) are identified but that unnecessary referral and anxiety for women is minimised. A Randomised Trial In Screening To Improve Cytology (ARTISTIC) recruited 24,510 women attending for cervical screening in Greater Manchester in 2001­3. Cervical samples taken at recruitment and again at screening 3 and 6 years later were tested for HPV. The women then returned to routine screening. We have followed them through national screening records and cancer registration until the end of 2015. By comparing the HPV results taken at entry with those collected 3 years later, we can categorise HPV infections into new and persistent. We have found that the CIN3 risk in women with persistent infections is about six times higher than in women with new infections, which in turn is about 30 times higher than in women with no infection. About three-quarters of women with HPV infection but no abnormal cells clear their infections within 3 years. Their risk of pre-cancer within 3 years is low (1.5%) and so intensive follow-up is unnecessary. Moreover, 40% of those who remain human papillomavirus positive (HPV+) have cleared their initial infection and acquired a new infection, meaning that they are also at much lower risk of disease than those with a persistent infection. The current practice in the national pilot study of annual repeat testing and referral of anyone who is still HPV+ after 2 years may, therefore, be too conservative. We have also shown that the CIN3 risk after 10 years in women testing negative for HPV is similar to the risk after about 3 years in women testing negative for cytology. This means that screening intervals could be extended for women testing negative for HPV.

Past and current asbestos exposure and future mesothelioma risks in Britain: The Inhaled Particles Study (TIPS).

Background: Occupational and environmental airborne asbestos concentrations are too low and variable for lifetime exposures to be estimated reliably, and building workers and occupants may suffer higher exposure when asbestos in older buildings is disturbed or removed. Mesothelioma risks from current asbestos exposures are therefore not known. Methods: We interviewed and measured asbestos levels in lung samples from 257 patients treated for pneumothorax and 262 with resected lung cancer, recruited in England and Wales. Average lung burdens in British birth cohorts from 1940 to 1992 were estimated for asbestos-exposed workers and the general population. Results: Regression analysis of British mesothelioma death rates and average lung burdens in birth cohorts born before 1965 suggests a lifetime mesothelioma risk of approximately 0.01% per fibre/mg of amphiboles in the lung. In those born since 1965, the average lung burden is ∼1 fibre/mg among those with no occupational exposure. Conclusions: The average lifetime mesothelioma risk caused by recent environmental asbestos exposure in Britain will be about 1 in 10 000. The risk is an order of magnitude higher in a subgroup of exposed workers and probably in occupants in the most contaminated buildings. Further data are needed to discover whether asbestos still present in buildings, particularly schools, is a persistent or decreasing hazard to workers who disturb it and to the general population, and whether environmental exposure occurs predominantly in childhood or after beginning work. Similar studies are needed in other countries to estimate continuing environmental and occupational mesothelioma hazards worldwide, including the contribution from chrysotile.

Associations of Human Papillomavirus (HPV) genotypes with high-grade cervical neoplasia (CIN2+) in a cohort of women living with HIV in Burkina Faso and South Africa.

OBJECTIVE: To describe associations of high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV) with high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN2+) in women living with HIV (WLHIV) in Burkina Faso (BF) and South Africa (SA). METHODS: Prospective cohort of WLHIV attending HIV outpatient clinics and treatment centres. Recruitment was stratified by ART status. Cervical HPV genotyping using INNO-LiPA and histological assessment of 4-quadrant cervical biopsies at enrolment and 16 months later. RESULTS: Among women with CIN2+ at baseline, the prevalence of any HR-HPV genotypes included in the bi/quadrivalent (HPV16/18) or nonavalent (HPV16/18/31/35/45/52/58) HPV vaccines ranged from 37% to 90%. HPV58 was most strongly associated with CIN2+ (aOR = 5.40, 95%CI: 2.77-10.53). At 16-months follow-up, persistence of any HR-HPV was strongly associated with incident CIN2+ (aOR = 7.90, 95%CI: 3.11-20.07), as was persistence of HPV16/18 (aOR = 5.25, 95%CI: 2.14-12.91) and the additional HR types in the nonavalent vaccine (aOR = 3.23, 95%CI: 1.23-8.54). CONCLUSION: HR-HPV persistence is very common among African WLHIV and is linked to incident CIN2+. HPV vaccines could prevent between 37-90% of CIN2+ among African WLHIV.

CYP3A7*1C allele is associated with reduced levels of 2-hydroxylation pathway oestrogen metabolites.

BACKGROUND: Endogenous sex hormones are well-established risk factors for breast cancer; the contribution of specific oestrogen metabolites (EMs) and/or ratios of specific EMs is less clear. We have previously identified a CYP3A7*1C allele that is associated with lower urinary oestrone (E1) levels in premenopausal women. The purpose of this analysis was to determine whether this allele was associated with specific pathway EMs. METHODS: We measured successfully 12 EMs in mid-follicular phase urine samples from 30 CYP3A7*1C carriers and 30 non-carriers using HPLC-MS/MS. RESULTS: In addition to having lower urinary E1 levels, CYP3A7*1C carriers had significantly lower levels of four of the 2-hydroxylation pathway EMs that we measured (2-hydroxyestrone, P=1.1 × 10-12; 2-hydroxyestradiol, P=2.7 × 10-7; 2-methoxyestrone, P=1.9 × 10-12; and 2-methoxyestradiol, P=0.0009). By contrast, 16α-hydroxylation pathway EMs were slightly higher in carriers and significantly so for 17-epiestriol (P=0.002). CONCLUSIONS: The CYP3A7*1C allele is associated with a lower urinary E1 levels, a more pronounced reduction in 2-hydroxylation pathway EMs and a lower ratio of 2-hydroxylation:16α-hydroxylation EMs in premenopausal women. To further characterise the association between parent oestrogens, EMs and subsequent risk of breast cancer, characterisation of additional genetic variants that influence oestrogen metabolism and large prospective studies of a broad spectrum of EMs will be required.

Epidemiology of high-risk human papillomavirus and cervical lesions in African women living with HIV/AIDS: effect of anti-retroviral therapy.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the effect of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and HIV-related factors on high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV) and high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia lesions (CIN2+) among women living with HIV/AIDS (WLHA) in sub-Saharan Africa. DESIGN: Prospective cohort of WLHA in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso (BF) and Johannesburg, South Africa (SA). Recruitment was stratified by ART status. METHODS: At baseline and endline (median 16 months), cervical samples, and biopsies were analyzed for HPV genotyping (InnoLiPA) and by histology. Logistic regression was used to estimate associations of ART and HIV-related factors with HR-HPV and CIN2+ outcomes, and all results presented are adjusted for baseline CD4 cell count. RESULTS: Among 1238 enrolled WLHA (BF = 615; SA = 623), HR-HPV prevalence was 59.1% in BF and 79.1% in SA. CIN2+ prevalence was 5.8% in BF and 22.5% in SA. Compared with long-duration ART users (>2 years), HR-HPV prevalence was higher among short-duration ART users [≤2 years; adjusted prevalence ratio (aPR) = 1.24, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04-1.47] in BF, and CIN2+ prevalence was higher among short-duration ART users [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.99, 95% CI 1.12-3.54) and ART-naive participants (aOR = 1.87, 95% CI 1.11-3.17) in SA. Among 963 (77.8%) women seen at endline, HR-HPV persistence was 41.1% in BF and 30.2% in SA; CIN2+ incidence over 16-months was 1.2% in BF and 5.8% in SA. HR-HPV persistence was associated with being ART-naive in BF (aPR = 1.89, 95% CI 1.26-2.83), and with short-duration ART use (aPR = 1.78, 95% CI 1.11-2.86) and HIV-1 plasma viral load at least 1000 copies/ml (aPR = 2.87, 95% CI 1.63-5.05) in SA. CIN2+ incidence was reduced among women on ART in SA (aOR = 0.39, 95% CI 0.15-1.01). CONCLUSION: Prolonged and effective ART is important in controlling HR-HPV and the development of CIN2+.