MVMRmode: Introducing an R package for plurality valid estimators for multivariable Mendelian randomisation.

BACKGROUND: Mendelian randomisation (MR) is the use of genetic variants as instrumental variables. Mode-based estimators (MBE) are one of the most popular types of estimators used in univariable-MR studies and is often used as a sensitivity analysis for pleiotropy. However, because there are no plurality valid regression estimators, modal estimators for multivariable-MR have been under-explored. METHODS: We use the residual framework for multivariable-MR to introduce two multivariable modal estimators: multivariable-MBE, which uses IVW to create residuals fed into a traditional plurality valid estimator, and an estimator which instead has the residuals fed into the contamination mixture method (CM), multivariable-CM. We then use Monte-Carlo simulations to explore the performance of these estimators when compared to existing ones and re-analyse the data used by Grant and Burgess (2021) looking at the causal effect of intelligence, education, and household income on Alzheimer's disease as an applied example. RESULTS: In our simulation, we found that multivariable-MBE was generally too variable to be much use. Multivariable-CM produced more precise estimates on the other hand. Multivariable-CM performed better than MR-Egger in almost all settings, and Weighted Median under balanced pleiotropy. However, it underperformed Weighted Median when there was a moderate amount of directional pleiotropy. Our re-analysis supported the conclusion of Grant and Burgess (2021), that intelligence had a protective effect on Alzheimer's disease, while education, and household income do not have a causal effect. CONCLUSIONS: Here we introduced two, non-regression-based, plurality valid estimators for multivariable MR. Of these, "multivariable-CM" which uses IVW to create residuals fed into a contamination-mixture model, performed the best. This estimator uses a plurality of variants valid assumption, and appears to provide precise and unbiased estimates in the presence of balanced pleiotropy and small amounts of directional pleiotropy.

Identification of potential mediators of the relationship between body mass index and colorectal cancer: a Mendelian randomization analysis.

BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third-most-common cancer worldwide and its rates are increasing. Elevated body mass index (BMI) is an established risk factor for CRC, although the molecular mechanisms behind this association remain unclear. Using the Mendelian randomization (MR) framework, we aimed to investigate the mediating effects of putative biomarkers and other CRC risk factors in the association between BMI and CRC. METHODS: We selected as mediators biomarkers of established cancer-related mechanisms and other CRC risk factors for which a plausible association with obesity exists, such as inflammatory biomarkers, glucose homeostasis traits, lipids, adipokines, insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF1), sex hormones, 25-hydroxy-vitamin D, smoking, physical activity (PA) and alcohol consumption. We used inverse-variance weighted MR in the main univariable analyses and performed sensitivity analyses (weighted-median, MR-Egger, Contamination Mixture). We used multivariable MR for the mediation analyses. RESULTS: Genetically predicted BMI was positively associated with CRC risk [odds ratio per SD (5 kg/m2) = 1.17, 95% CI: 1.08-1.24, P-value = 1.4 × 10-5] and robustly associated with nearly all potential mediators. Genetically predicted IGF1, fasting insulin, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, smoking, PA and alcohol were associated with CRC risk. Evidence for attenuation was found for IGF1 [explained 7% (95% CI: 2-13%) of the association], smoking (31%, 4-57%) and PA (7%, 2-11%). There was little evidence for pleiotropy, although smoking was bidirectionally associated with BMI and instruments were weak for PA. CONCLUSIONS: The effect of BMI on CRC risk is possibly partly mediated through plasma IGF1, whereas the attenuation of the BMI-CRC association by smoking and PA may reflect confounding and shared underlying mechanisms rather than mediation.

Risk Factors for Intracerebral Hemorrhage: Genome-Wide Association Study and Mendelian Randomization Analyses.

BACKGROUND: The genetic and nongenetic causes of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) remain obscure. The present study aimed to uncover the genetic and modifiable risk factors for ICH. METHODS: We meta-analyzed genome-wide association study data from 3 European biobanks, involving 7605 ICH cases and 711 818 noncases, to identify the genomic loci linked to ICH. To uncover the potential causal associations of cardiometabolic and lifestyle factors with ICH, we performed Mendelian randomization analyses using genetic instruments identified in previous genome-wide association studies of the exposures and ICH data from the present genome-wide association study meta-analysis. We performed multivariable Mendelian randomization analyses to examine the independent associations of the identified risk factors with ICH and evaluate potential mediating pathways. RESULTS: We identified 1 ICH risk locus, located at the APOE genomic region. The lead variant in this locus was rs429358 (chr19:45411941), which was associated with an odds ratio of ICH of 1.17 (95% CI, 1.11-1.20; P=6.01×10-11) per C allele. Genetically predicted higher levels of body mass index, visceral adiposity, diastolic blood pressure, systolic blood pressure, and lifetime smoking index, as well as genetic liability to type 2 diabetes, were associated with higher odds of ICH after multiple testing corrections. Additionally, a genetic increase in waist-to-hip ratio and liability to smoking initiation were consistently associated with ICH, albeit at the nominal significance level (P<0.05). Multivariable Mendelian randomization analysis showed that the association between body mass index and ICH was attenuated on adjustment for type 2 diabetes and further that type 2 diabetes may be a mediator of the body mass index-ICH relationship. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that the APOE locus contributes to ICH genetic susceptibility in European populations. Excess adiposity, elevated blood pressure, type 2 diabetes, and smoking were identified as the chief modifiable cardiometabolic and lifestyle factors for ICH.

Sedentary lifestyle, physical activity, and gastrointestinal diseases: evidence from mendelian randomization analysis.

BACKGROUND: The causal associations of physical activity and sedentary behavior with the risk of gastrointestinal disease are unclear. We performed a Mendelian randomization analysis to examine these associations. METHODS: Genetic instruments associated with leisure screen time (LST, an indicator of a sedentary lifestyle) and moderate-to-vigorous intensity physical activity (MVPA) at the genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10-8) level were selected from a genome-wide association study. Summary statistics for gastrointestinal diseases were obtained from the UK Biobank study, the FinnGen study, and large consortia. Multivariable MR analyses were conducted for genetically determined LST with adjustment for MVPA and vice versa. We also performed multivariable MR with adjustment for genetically proxied smoking, body mass index (BMI), waist-to-hip ratio, type 2 diabetes, and fasting insulin for both exposures. FINDINGS: Genetically proxied longer LST was associated with an increased risk of gastrointestinal reflux, gastric ulcer, duodenal ulcer, chronic gastritis, irritable bowel syndrome, diverticular disease, Crohn's disease, ulcerative colitis, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, alcoholic liver disease, cholangitis, cholecystitis, cholelithiasis, acute pancreatitis, chronic pancreatitis, and acute appendicitis. Most associations remained after adjustment for genetic liability to MVPA. Genetic liability to MVPA was associated with decreased risk of gastroesophageal reflux, gastric ulcer, chronic gastritis, irritable bowel syndrome, cholecystitis, cholelithiasis, acute and chronic pancreatitis. The associations attenuated albeit directionally remained after adjusting for genetically predicted LST. Multivariable MR analysis found that BMI and type 2 diabetes mediated the associations of LST and MVPA with several gastrointestinal diseases. INTERPRETATION: The study suggests that a sedentary lifestyle may play a causal role in the development of many gastrointestinal diseases. FUNDING: Natural Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars of Zhejiang Province (LR22H260001), Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province (2021JJ30999), Swedish Heart-Lung Foundation (Hjärt-Lungfonden, 20210351), Swedish Research Council (Vetenskapsrådet, 2019-00977), Swedish Cancer Society (Cancerfonden), the Wellcome Trust (225790/7/22/Z), United Kingdom Research and Innovation Medical Research Council (MC_UU_00002/7) and National Institute for Health Research Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre (NHIR203312).

LDL-c Lowering, Ischemic Stroke, and Small Vessel Disease Brain Imaging Biomarkers: A Mendelian Randomization Study.

BACKGROUND: The effects of lipid-lowering drug targets on different ischemic stroke subtypes are not fully understood. We aimed to explore the mechanisms by which lipid-lowering drug targets differentially affect the risk of ischemic stroke subtypes and their underlying pathophysiology. METHODS: Using a 2-sample Mendelian randomization approach, we assessed the effects of genetically proxied low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-c) and 3 clinically approved LDL-lowering drugs (HMGCR [3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl-CoA reductase], PCSK9 [proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9], and NPC1L1 [Niemann-Pick C1-Like 1]) on stroke subtypes and brain imaging biomarkers associated with small vessel stroke (SVS), including white matter hyperintensity volume and perivascular spaces. RESULTS: In genome-wide Mendelian randomization analyses, lower genetically predicted LDL-c was significantly associated with a reduced risk of any stroke, ischemic stroke, and large artery stroke, supporting previous findings. Significant associations between genetically predicted LDL-c and cardioembolic stroke, SVS, and biomarkers, perivascular space and white matter hyperintensity volume, were not identified in this study. In drug-target Mendelian randomization analysis, genetically proxied reduced LDL-c through NPC1L1 inhibition was associated with lower odds of perivascular space (odds ratio per 1-mg/dL decrease, 0.79 [95% CI, 0.67-0.93]) and with lower odds of SVS (odds ratio, 0.29 [95% CI, 0.10-0.85]). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides supporting evidence of a potentially protective effect of LDL-c lowering through NPC1L1 inhibition on perivascular space and SVS risk, highlighting novel therapeutic targets for SVS.

Proteomic Associations of Adverse Outcomes in Human Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: Identifying novel molecular drivers of disease progression in heart failure (HF) is a high-priority goal that may provide new therapeutic targets to improve patient outcomes. The authors investigated the relationship between plasma proteins and adverse outcomes in HF and their putative causal role using Mendelian randomization. METHODS AND RESULTS: The authors measured 4776 plasma proteins among 1964 participants with HF with a reduced left ventricular ejection fraction enrolled in PHFS (Penn Heart Failure Study). Assessed were the observational relationship between plasma proteins and (1) all-cause death or (2) death or HF-related hospital admission (DHFA). The authors replicated nominally significant associations in the Washington University HF registry (N=1080). Proteins significantly associated with outcomes were the subject of 2-sample Mendelian randomization and colocalization analyses. After correction for multiple testing, 243 and 126 proteins were found to be significantly associated with death and DHFA, respectively. These included small ubiquitin-like modifier 2 (standardized hazard ratio [sHR], 1.56; P<0.0001), growth differentiation factor-15 (sHR, 1.68; P<0.0001) for death, A disintegrin and metalloproteinase with thrombospondin motifs-like protein (sHR, 1.40; P<0.0001), and pulmonary-associated surfactant protein C (sHR, 1.24; P<0.0001) for DHFA. In pathway analyses, top canonical pathways associated with death and DHFA included fibrotic, inflammatory, and coagulation pathways. Genomic analyses provided evidence of nominally significant associations between levels of 6 genetically predicted proteins with DHFA and 11 genetically predicted proteins with death. CONCLUSIONS: This study implicates multiple novel proteins in HF and provides preliminary evidence of associations between genetically predicted plasma levels of 17 candidate proteins and the risk for adverse outcomes in human HF.

Robust use of phenotypic heterogeneity at drug target genes for mechanistic insights: Application of cis-multivariable Mendelian randomization to GLP1R gene region.

Phenotypic heterogeneity at genomic loci encoding drug targets can be exploited by multivariable Mendelian randomization to provide insight into the pathways by which pharmacological interventions may affect disease risk. However, statistical inference in such investigations may be poor if overdispersion heterogeneity in measured genetic associations is unaccounted for. In this work, we first develop conditional F statistics for dimension-reduced genetic associations that enable more accurate measurement of phenotypic heterogeneity. We then develop a novel extension for two-sample multivariable Mendelian randomization that accounts for overdispersion heterogeneity in dimension-reduced genetic associations. Our empirical focus is to use genetic variants in the GLP1R gene region to understand the mechanism by which GLP1R agonism affects coronary artery disease (CAD) risk. Colocalization analyses indicate that distinct variants in the GLP1R gene region are associated with body mass index and type 2 diabetes (T2D). Multivariable Mendelian randomization analyses that were corrected for overdispersion heterogeneity suggest that bodyweight lowering rather than T2D liability lowering effects of GLP1R agonism are more likely contributing to reduced CAD risk. Tissue-specific analyses prioritized brain tissue as the most likely to be relevant for CAD risk, of the tissues considered. We hope the multivariable Mendelian randomization approach illustrated here is widely applicable to better understand mechanisms linking drug targets to diseases outcomes, and hence to guide drug development efforts.

Association between circulating inflammatory markers and adult cancer risk: a Mendelian randomization analysis.

BACKGROUND: Tumour-promoting inflammation is a "hallmark" of cancer and conventional epidemiological studies have reported links between various inflammatory markers and cancer risk. The causal nature of these relationships and, thus, the suitability of these markers as intervention targets for cancer prevention is unclear. METHODS: We meta-analysed 6 genome-wide association studies of circulating inflammatory markers comprising 59,969 participants of European ancestry. We then used combined cis-Mendelian randomization and colocalisation analysis to evaluate the causal role of 66 circulating inflammatory markers in risk of 30 adult cancers in 338,294 cancer cases and up to 1,238,345 controls. Genetic instruments for inflammatory markers were constructed using genome-wide significant (P < 5.0 × 10-8) cis-acting SNPs (i.e., in or ±250 kb from the gene encoding the relevant protein) in weak linkage disequilibrium (LD, r2 < 0.10). Effect estimates were generated using inverse-variance weighted random-effects models and standard errors were inflated to account for weak LD between variants with reference to the 1000 Genomes Phase 3 CEU panel. A false discovery rate (FDR)-corrected P-value ("q-value") <0.05 was used as a threshold to define "strong evidence" to support associations and 0.05 ≤ q-value < 0.20 to define "suggestive evidence". A colocalisation posterior probability (PPH4) >70% was employed to indicate support for shared causal variants across inflammatory markers and cancer outcomes. Findings were replicated in the FinnGen study and then pooled using meta-analysis. FINDINGS: We found strong evidence to support an association of genetically-proxied circulating pro-adrenomedullin concentrations with increased breast cancer risk (OR: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.10-1.29, q-value = 0.033, PPH4 = 84.3%) and suggestive evidence to support associations of interleukin-23 receptor concentrations with increased pancreatic cancer risk (OR: 1.42, 95% CI: 1.20-1.69, q-value = 0.055, PPH4 = 73.9%), prothrombin concentrations with decreased basal cell carcinoma risk (OR: 0.66, 95% CI: 0.53-0.81, q-value = 0.067, PPH4 = 81.8%), and interleukin-1 receptor-like 1 concentrations with decreased triple-negative breast cancer risk (OR: 0.92, 95% CI: 0.88-0.97, q-value = 0.15, PPH4 = 85.6%). These findings were replicated in pooled analyses with the FinnGen study. Though suggestive evidence was found to support an association of macrophage migration inhibitory factor concentrations with increased bladder cancer risk (OR: 2.46, 95% CI: 1.48-4.10, q-value = 0.072, PPH4 = 76.1%), this finding was not replicated when pooled with the FinnGen study. For 22 of 30 cancer outcomes examined, there was little evidence (q-value ≥0.20) that any of the 66 circulating inflammatory markers examined were associated with cancer risk. INTERPRETATION: Our comprehensive joint Mendelian randomization and colocalisation analysis of the role of circulating inflammatory markers in cancer risk identified potential roles for 4 circulating inflammatory markers in risk of 4 site-specific cancers. Contrary to reports from some prior conventional epidemiological studies, we found little evidence of association of circulating inflammatory markers with the majority of site-specific cancers evaluated. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK (C68933/A28534, C18281/A29019, PPRCPJT∖100005), World Cancer Research Fund (IIG_FULL_2020_022), National Institute for Health Research (NIHR202411, BRC-1215-20011), Medical Research Council (MC_UU_00011/1, MC_UU_00011/3, MC_UU_00011/6, and MC_UU_00011/4), Academy of Finland Project 326291, European Union's Horizon 2020 grant agreement no. 848158 (EarlyCause), French National Cancer Institute (INCa SHSESP20, 2020-076), Versus Arthritis (21173, 21754, 21755), National Institutes of Health (U19 CA203654), National Cancer Institute (U19CA203654).

Proteomic Associations of NT-proBNP (N-Terminal Pro-B-Type Natriuretic Peptide) in Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction.

BACKGROUND: NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) levels are variably elevated in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF), even in the presence of increased left ventricular filling pressures. NT-proBNP levels are prognostic in HFpEF and have been used as an inclusion criterion for several recent randomized clinical trials. However, the underlying biologic differences between HFpEF participants with high and low NT-proBNP levels remain to be fully understood. METHODS: We measured 4928 proteins using an aptamer-based proteomic assay (SOMAScan) in available plasma samples from 2 cohorts: (1) Participants with HFpEF enrolled in the PHFS (Penn Heart Failure Study; n=253); (2) TOPCAT (Treatment of Preserved Cardiac Function Heart Failure With an Aldosterone Antagonist Trial) participants in the Americas (n=218). We assessed the relationship between SOMAScan-derived plasma NT-proBNP and levels of other proteins available in the SOMAScan assay version 4 using robust linear regression, with correction for multiple comparisons, followed by pathway analysis. RESULTS: NT-proBNP levels exhibited prominent proteome-wide associations in PHFS and TOPCAT cohorts. Proteins most strongly associated with NT-proBNP in both cohorts included SVEP1 (sushi, von Willebrand factor type-A, epidermal growth factor, and pentraxin domain containing 1; ßTOPCAT=0.539; P<0.0001; ßPHFS=0.516; P<0.0001) and ANGPT2 (angiopoietin 2; ßTOPCAT=0.571; P<0.0001; ßPHFS=0.459; P<0.0001). Canonical pathway analysis demonstrated consistent associations with multiple pathways related to fibrosis and inflammation. These included hepatic fibrosis and inhibition of matrix metalloproteases. Analyses using cut points corresponding to estimated quantitative concentrations of 360 pg/mL (and 480 pg/mL in atrial fibrillation) revealed similar proteomic associations. CONCLUSIONS: Circulating NT-proBNP levels exhibit prominent proteomic associations in HFpEF. Our findings suggest that higher NT-proBNP levels in HFpEF are a marker of fibrosis and inflammation. These findings will aid the interpretation of NT-proBNP levels in HFpEF and may guide the selection of participants in future HFpEF clinical trials.

The mediating role of atrial fibrillation in causal associations between risk factors and stroke: a Mendelian randomization study.

OBJECTIVES: Atrial fibrillation (AF) contributes to stroke development and progression. We aimed to quantify the mediating role of AF in the causal associations between a wide range of risk factors and stroke via a Mendelian randomization (MR) framework. METHODS: We assessed the associations of 108 traits with stroke and its subtypes in a 2-sample univariable MR approach, then conducted a bidirectional MR analysis between these 108 traits and AF to evaluate the presence and direction of their causal associations. Finally, to further investigate the extent to which AF mediated the effects of eligible traits on stroke, we applied multivariable and 2-step MR techniques in a mediation analysis where outcomes were restricted to stroke types causally affected by AF (any stroke [AS], any ischemic stroke [AIS], and cardioembolic stroke [CES]). RESULTS: Among 108 traits, 42 were putatively causal for at least 1 stroke type; of these 42 traits, 20 that had no bidirectional relationship with AF were retained. Finally, 33 associations of 15 eligible traits were examined in the mediation analysis. The mediation analyses for AS, AIS, and CES each included 11 eligible traits. After AF adjustment, the direct effects of all traits on CES were attenuated to null (all p>0.05), while the associations with AS and AIS persisted for most traits (AF-mediated proportion: from 6.6% [95% confidence interval, 2.7 to 0.6] to 52.0% [95% confidence interval, 39.8 to 64.3]). CONCLUSIONS: The causal associations between all eligible traits and CES were largely mediated through AF, while most traits affected AS and AIS independently of AF.

Genetic investigation into the broad health implications of caffeine: evidence from phenome-wide, proteome-wide and metabolome-wide Mendelian randomization.

BACKGROUND: Caffeine is one of the most utilized drugs in the world, yet its clinical effects are not fully understood. Circulating caffeine levels are influenced by the interplay between consumption behaviour and metabolism. This study aimed to investigate the effects of circulating caffeine levels by considering genetically predicted variation in caffeine metabolism. METHODS: Leveraging genetic variants related to caffeine metabolism that affect its circulating levels, we investigated the clinical effects of plasma caffeine in a phenome-wide association study (PheWAS). We validated novel findings using a two-sample Mendelian randomization framework and explored the potential mechanisms underlying these effects in proteome-wide and metabolome-wide Mendelian randomization. RESULTS: Higher levels of genetically predicted circulating caffeine among caffeine consumers were associated with a lower risk of obesity (odds ratio (OR) per standard deviation increase in caffeine = 0.97, 95% confidence interval (CI) CI: 0.95-0.98, p = 2.47 × 10-4), osteoarthrosis (OR = 0.97, 95% CI: 0.96-0.98, P=1.10 × 10-8) and osteoarthritis (OR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.96 to 0.98, P = 1.09 × 10-6). Approximately one third of the protective effect of plasma caffeine on osteoarthritis risk was estimated to be mediated through lower bodyweight. Proteomic and metabolomic perturbations indicated lower chronic inflammation, improved lipid profiles, and altered protein and glycogen metabolism as potential biological mechanisms underlying these effects. CONCLUSIONS: We report novel evidence suggesting that long-term increases in circulating caffeine may reduce bodyweight and the risk of osteoarthrosis and osteoarthritis. We confirm prior genetic evidence of a protective effect of plasma caffeine on risk of overweight and obesity. Further clinical study is warranted to understand the translational relevance of these findings before clinical practice or lifestyle interventions related to caffeine consumption are introduced.

Cerebrospinal and Brain Proteins Implicated in Neuropsychiatric and Risk Factor Traits: Evidence from Mendelian Randomization.

Neuropsychiatric disorders present a global health challenge, necessitating an understanding of their molecular mechanisms for therapeutic development. Using Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis, this study explored associations between genetically predicted levels of 173 proteins in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and 25 in the brain with 14 neuropsychiatric disorders and risk factors. Follow-up analyses assessed consistency across plasma protein levels and gene expression in various brain regions. Proteins were instrumented using tissue-specific genetic variants, and colocalization analysis confirmed unbiased gene variants. Consistent MR and colocalization evidence revealed that lower cortical expression of low-density lipoprotein receptor-related protein 8, coupled higher abundance in the CSF and plasma, associated with lower fluid intelligence scores and decreased bipolar disorder risk. Additionally, elevated apolipoprotein-E2 and hepatocyte growth factor-like protein in the CSF and brain were related to reduced leisure screen time and lower odds of physical activity, respectively. Furthermore, elevated CSF soluble tyrosine-protein kinase receptor 1 level increased liability to attention deficit hyperactivity disorder and schizophrenia alongside lower fluid intelligence scores. This research provides genetic evidence supporting novel tissue-specific proteomic targets for neuropsychiatric disorders and their risk factors. Further exploration is necessary to understand the underlying biological mechanisms and assess their potential for therapeutic intervention.

Mendelian Randomization Applied to Neurology: Promises and Challenges

The Mendelian randomization (MR) paradigm allows for causal inferences to be drawn using genetic data. In recent years, the expansion of well-powered publicly available genetic association data related to phenotypes such as brain tissue gene expression, brain imaging, and neurologic diseases offers exciting opportunities for the application of MR in the field of neurology. In this review, we discuss the basic principles of MR, its myriad applications to research in neurology, and potential pitfalls of injudicious applications. Throughout, we provide examples where MR-informed findings have shed light on long-standing epidemiologic controversies, provided insights into the pathophysiology of neurologic conditions, prioritized drug targets, and informed drug repurposing opportunities. With the ever-expanding availability of genome-wide association data, we project MR to become a key driver of progress in the field of neurology. It is therefore paramount that academics and clinicians within the field are familiar with the approach.

MRSamePopTest: introducing a simple falsification test for the two-sample mendelian randomisation 'same population' assumption.

Two-sample MR is an increasingly popular method for strengthening causal inference in epidemiological studies. For the effect estimates to be meaningful, variant-exposure and variant-outcome associations must come from comparable populations. A recent systematic review of two-sample MR studies found that, if assessed at all, MR studies evaluated this assumption by checking that the genetic association studies had similar demographics. However, it is unclear if this is sufficient because less easily accessible factors may also be important. Here we propose an easy-to-implement falsification test. Since recent theoretical developments in causal inference suggest that a causal effect estimate can generalise from one study to another if there is exchangeability of effect modifiers, we suggest testing the homogeneity of variant-phenotype associations for a phenotype which has been measured in both genetic association studies as a method of exploring the 'same-population' test. This test could be used to facilitate designing MR studies with diverse populations. We developed a simple R package to facilitate the implementation of our proposed test. We hope that this research note will result in increased attention to the same-population assumption, and the development of better sensitivity analyses.

KEY MESSAGE: • Two-sample Mendelian randomisation (2SMR) can be used to estimate the lifetime effect of a modifiable exposure on an outcome of interest. • 2SMR point estimates are not interpretable if the exposure and outcome GWASs do not come from homogeneous populations, so called 'same population' assumption. However, this assumption is often not validated in applied studies. • We propose and validate a novel sensitivity analysis for this assumption, which checks if SNP effects for the same trait are homogeneous across the two populations.

Cerebrospinal Fluid C1-Esterase Inhibitor and Tie-1 Levels Affect Cognitive Performance: Evidence from Proteome-Wide Mendelian Randomization.

OBJECTIVE: The association of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) protein levels with cognitive function in the general population remains largely unexplored. We performed Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to query which CSF proteins may have potential causal effects on cognitive performance. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Genetic associations with CSF proteins were obtained from a genome-wide association study conducted in up to 835 European-ancestry individuals and for cognitive performance from a meta-analysis of GWAS including 257,841 European-ancestry individuals. We performed Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to test the effect of randomly allocated variation in 154 genetically predicted CSF protein levels on cognitive performance. Findings were validated by performing colocalization analyses and considering cognition-related phenotypes. RESULTS: Genetically predicted C1-esterase inhibitor levels in the CSF were associated with a better cognitive performance (SD units of cognitive performance per 1 log-relative fluorescence unit (RFU): 0.23, 95% confidence interval: 0.12 to 0.35, p = 7.91 × 10-5), while tyrosine-protein kinase receptor Tie-1 (sTie-1) levels were associated with a worse cognitive performance (-0.43, -0.62 to -0.23, p = 2.08 × 10-5). These findings were supported by colocalization analyses and by concordant effects on distinct cognition-related and brain-volume measures. CONCLUSIONS: Human genetics supports a role for the C1-esterase inhibitor and sTie-1 in cognitive performance.

Mediating Factors in the Association of Maternal Educational Level With Pregnancy Outcomes: A Mendelian Randomization Study.

Importance: Lower educational attainment is associated with increased risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes, but it is unclear which pathways mediate this association. Objective: To investigate the association between educational attainment and pregnancy outcomes and the proportion of this association that is mediated through modifiable cardiometabolic risk factors. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this 2-sample mendelian randomization (MR) cohort study, uncorrelated (R2 < 0.01) single-nucleotide variants (formerly single-nucleotide polymorphisms) associated with the exposure (P < 5 × 10-8) and mediators and genetic associations with the pregnancy outcomes from genome-wide association studies were extracted. All participants were of European ancestry and were largely from Finland, Iceland, the United Kingdom, or the US. The inverse variance-weighted method was used in the main analysis, and the weighted median, weighted mode, and MR Egger regression were used in sensitivity analyses. In mediation analyses, the direct effect of educational attainment estimated in multivariable MR was compared with the total effect estimated in the main univariable MR analysis. Data were extracted between December 1, 2022, and April 30, 2023. Exposure: Genetically estimated educational attainment. The mediators considered were genetically estimated type 2 diabetes, body mass index, smoking, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level, and systolic blood pressure. Main Outcomes and Measures: Ectopic pregnancy, hyperemesis gravidarum, gestational diabetes, preeclampsia, preterm birth, and offspring birth weight. Results: The analyses included 3 037 499 individuals with data on educational attainment, and those included in studies on pregnancy outcomes ranged from 141 014 for ectopic pregnancy to 270 002 with data on offspring birth weight. Each SD increase in genetically estimated educational attainment (ie, 3.4 years) was associated with an increased birth weight of 42 (95% CI, 28-56) g and an odds ratio ranging from 0.53 (95% CI, 0.46-0.60) for ectopic pregnancy to 0.81 (95% CI, 0.71-0.93) for preeclampsia. The combined proportion of the association that was mediated by the 5 cardiometabolic risk factors ranged from -17% (95% CI, -46% to 26%) for hyperemesis gravidarum to 78% (95% CI, 10%-208%) for preeclampsia. Sensitivity analyses accounting for pleiotropy were consistent with the main analyses. Conclusions and Relevance: In this MR cohort study, intervening for type 2 diabetes, body mass index, smoking, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level, and systolic blood pressure may lead to reductions in several adverse pregnancy outcomes associated with lower levels of education. Such public health interventions would serve to reduce health disparities attributable to social inequalities.

Adiposity and Functional Outcome After Ischemic Stroke: A Mendelian Randomization Study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: To investigate the causal relationships of abdominal adiposity (waist-to-hip ratio [WHR]) and overall adiposity (body mass index [BMI]) with functional outcome after ischemic stroke using Mendelian randomization. METHODS: Genetic instruments for WHR and BMI were obtained from the largest available genome-wide association studies meta-analysis of the Genetic Investigation of ANthropometric Traits consortium and the UK Biobank (N max = 806,834). Functional outcome after ischemic stroke was assessed using the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score at 3-month after stroke onset, with mRS >2 (mRS 3-6) defined as an unfavorable functional outcome. Corresponding genetic estimates for an unfavorable functional outcome were extracted from the Genetics of Ischemic Stroke Functional Outcome network (N = 6,021). We applied a random-effects inverse variance weighted method as our main analysis. RESULTS: Genetically predicted higher WHR (per 0.09 ratio units) was associated with unfavorable functional outcome after ischemic stroke (mRS 3-6, OR = 1.48; 95% CI = 1.03-2.13; p = 0.033). The results remained directionally consistent in sensitivity analyses. Conversely, genetically predicted BMI (per 4.8 kg/m2) was not associated with unfavorable functional outcome after ischemic stroke (OR = 1.01; 95% CI = 0.75-1.36; p = 0.937). DISCUSSION: This study provides genetic evidence supporting the hypothesis that abdominal adiposity has a detrimental effect on functional recovery after ischemic stroke.