Complex interactions of ENSO and local conditions buffer the poleward shift of migratory fish in a subtropical seascape.

Ocean warming is associated with the tropicalization of fish towards higher latitudes. However, the influence of global climatic phenomena like the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) phases on tropicalization has been overlooked. Understanding the combined effects of global climatic forces together with local variability on the distribution and abundance of tropical fish is essential for building more accurate predictive models of species on the move. This is particularly important in regions where ENSO-related impacts are known to be major drivers of ecosystem change, and is compounded by predictions that El Niño is becoming more frequent and intense under current ocean warming. In this study, we used long-term time series of monthly standardized sampling (August 1996 to February 2020) to investigate how ocean warming, ENSO and local environmental variability influence the abundance of an estuarine dependent tropical fish species (white mullet Mugil curema) at subtropical latitudes in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. Our work revealed a significant increasing trend in surface water temperature in shallow waters (<1.5 m) at estuarine and marine sites. However, against our initial expectation, we did not observe an increasing trend in the abundance of this tropical mullet species. Generalized Additive Models revealed complex, non-linear relationships between species abundance and environmental factors operating at large (ENSO's warm and cold phases), regional (freshwater discharge in the coastal lagoon's drainage basin) and local (temperature and salinity) scales across the estuarine marine gradient. These results demonstrate that fish responses to global climate change can be complex and multifaceted. More specifically, our findings suggested that the interaction among global and local driving forces dampen the expected effect of tropicalization for this mullet species in a subtropical seascape.

Breeding durations as estimators of adult sex ratios and population size.

Adult sex ratios (ASRs) and population size are two of the most fundamental parameters in population biology, as they are the main determinants of genetic and demographic viability, and vulnerability of a population to stochastic events. Underpinning the application of population viability analysis for predicting the extinction risk of populations is the need to accurately estimate parameters that determine the viability of populations (i.e. the ASR and population size). Here we demonstrate that a lack of temporal information can confound estimation of both parameters. Using acoustic telemetry, we compared differences in breeding durations of both sexes for a giant Australian cuttlefish Sepia apama breeding aggregation to the strongly male-biased operational sex ratio (4:1), in order to estimate the population ASR. The ratio of breeding durations between sexes was equal to the operational sex ratio, suggesting that the ASR is not strongly male-biased, but balanced. Furthermore, the short residence times of individuals at the breeding aggregation suggests that previous density-based abundance estimates have significantly underestimated population size. With the current wide application of population viability analysis for predicting the extinction risk of populations, tools to improve the accuracy of such predictions are vital. Here we provide a new approach to estimating the fundamental ASR parameter, and call for temporal considerations when estimating population size.