The global burden of high fasting plasma glucose associated with zinc deficiency: Results of a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) account for the largest share of the global disease burden, and increasing evidence shows that zinc deficiency (ZD) contributes to NCDs by inducing oxidative stress, insulin resistance, and impaired lipid metabolism. A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted to determine whether ZD was associated with fasting plasma glucose (FPG), a key risk factor for NCDs. A random effects meta-analysis was conducted to determine the strength of the association in the form of an odds ratio (OR) and subsequently the population attributable risk (PAR) with population prevalences of high FPG. The disease burden from high FPG attributable to ZD was expressed as disability adjusted life years (DALYS). Data from seven studies were obtained as part of the systematic review. The meta-analysis shows a significant (p<0.01) inverse relationship between ZD and high FPG (OR = 2.34; 95% CI: 1.16, 4.72). Globally, the PAR of ZD's contribution to high FPG is 6.7%, with approximately 8.2 million high FPG DALYs attributable to ZD. Cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, and chronic kidney diseases account for more than 90% of the total DALYs. Total DALYs attributable to ZD are largest in the "Southeast Asia, East Asia, and Oceania" and "High Income" Super Regions. While the disease burden is highest among populous countries (e.g., China, India, USA), the population-standardized DALYs are highest among island nations, particularly island nations in the South Pacific and Caribbean. While ZD accounts for a small share of the high FPG disease burden, the total number of DALYs far surpasses other estimates of the disease burden attributable to ZD, which focus on diarrheal diseases in childhood. Zinc interventions are urgently needed to help address the increasing disease burden from NCDs, and the double burden of malnutrition.

Population health outcomes in Nigeria compared with other west African countries, 1998-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study.

BACKGROUND: Population-level health and mortality data are crucial for evidence-informed policy but scarce in Nigeria. To fill this gap, we undertook a comprehensive assessment of the burden of disease in Nigeria and compared outcomes to other west African countries. METHODS: In this systematic analysis, using data and results of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019, we analysed patterns of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), life expectancy, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and health system coverage for Nigeria and 15 other west African countries by gender in 1998 and 2019. Estimates of all-age and age-standardised disability-adjusted life-years for 369 diseases and injuries and 87 risk factors are presented for Nigeria. Health expenditure per person and gross domestic product were extracted from the World Bank repository. FINDINGS: Between 1998 and 2019, life expectancy and HALE increased in Nigeria by 18% to 64·3 years (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 62·2-66·6), mortality reduced for all age groups for both male and female individuals, and health expenditure per person increased from the 11th to third highest in west Africa by 2018 (US$18·6 in 2001 to $83·75 in 2018). Nonetheless, relative outcomes remained poor; Nigeria ranked sixth in west Africa for age-standardised mortality, seventh for HALE, tenth for YLLs, 12th for health system coverage, and 14th for YLDs in 2019. Malaria (5176·3 YLLs per 100 000 people, 95% UI 2464·0-9591·1) and neonatal disorders (4818·8 YLLs per 100 000, 3865·9-6064·2) were the leading causes of YLLs in Nigeria in 2019. Nigeria had the fourth-highest under-five mortality rate for male individuals (2491·8 deaths per 100 000, 95% UI 1986·1-3140·1) and female individuals (2117·7 deaths per 100 000, 1756·7-2569·1), but among the lowest mortality for men older than 55 years. There was evidence of a growing non-communicable disease burden facing older Nigerians. INTERPRETATION: Health outcomes remain poor in Nigeria despite higher expenditure since 2001. Better outcomes in countries with equivalent or lower health expenditure suggest health system strengthening and targeted intervention to address unsafe water sources, poor sanitation, malnutrition, and exposure to air pollution could substantially improve population health. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Health trends, inequalities and opportunities in South Africa's provinces, 1990-2019: findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study.

BACKGROUND: Over the last 30 years, South Africa has experienced four 'colliding epidemics' of HIV and tuberculosis, chronic illness and mental health, injury and violence, and maternal, neonatal, and child mortality, which have had substantial effects on health and well-being. Using data from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD 2019), we evaluated national and provincial health trends and progress towards important Sustainable Development Goal targets from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: We analysed GBD 2019 estimates of mortality, non-fatal health loss, summary health measures and risk factor burden, comparing trends over 1990-2007 and 2007-2019. Additionally, we decomposed changes in life expectancy by cause of death and assessed healthcare system performance. RESULTS: Across the nine provinces, inequalities in mortality and life expectancy increased over 1990-2007, largely due to differences in HIV/AIDS, then decreased over 2007-2019. Demographic change and increases in non-communicable diseases nearly doubled the number of years lived with disability between 1990 and 2019. From 1990 to 2019, risk factor burdens generally shifted from communicable and nutritional disease risks to non-communicable disease and injury risks; unsafe sex remained the top risk factor. Despite widespread improvements in healthcare system performance, the greatest gains were generally in economically advantaged provinces. CONCLUSIONS: Reductions in HIV/AIDS and related conditions have led to improved health since 2007, though most provinces still lag in key areas. To achieve health targets, provincial governments should enhance health investments and exchange of knowledge, resources and best practices alongside populations that have been left behind, especially following the COVID-19 pandemic.

Trends in prevalence and mortality burden attributable to smoking, Brazil and federated units, 1990 and 2017.

BACKGROUND: The present study sought to analyze smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable mortality estimates produced by the 2017 Global Burden of Disease Study for Brazil, 26 states, and the Federal District. METHODS: Prevalence of current smokers from 1990 to 2017 by sex and age was estimated using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Population-attributable fractions were calculated for different risk-outcome pairs to generate estimates of smoking-attributable mortality. A cohort analysis of smoking prevalence by birth-year cohort was performed to better understand temporal age patterns in smoking. Smoking-attributable mortality rates were described and analyzed by development at state levels, using the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI). Finally, a decomposition analysis was conducted to evaluate the contribution of different factors to the changes in the number of deaths attributable to smoking between 1990 and 2017. RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2017, prevalence of smoking in the population (≥ 20 years old) decreased from 35.3 to 11.3% in Brazil. This downward trend was seen for both sexes and in all states, with a marked reduction in exposure to this risk factor in younger cohorts. Smoking-attributable mortality rates decreased by 57.8% (95% UI - 61.2, - 54.1) between 1990 and 2017. Overall, larger reductions were observed in states with higher SDI (Pearson correlation 0.637; p < 0.01). In Brazil, smoking remains responsible for a considerable amount of deaths, especially due to cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms. CONCLUSIONS: Brazil has adopted a set of regulatory measures and implemented anti-tobacco policies that, along with improvements in socioeconomic conditions, have contributed to the results presented in the present study. Other regulatory measures need to be implemented to boost a reduction in smoking in order to reach the goals established in the scope of the 2030 United Nations Agenda for Sustainable Development.

Trends in prevalence, mortality, and morbidity associated with high systolic blood pressure in Brazil from 1990 to 2017: estimates from the "Global Burden of Disease 2017" (GBD 2017) study.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension remains the leading risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) worldwide, and its impact in Brazil should be assessed in order to better address the issue. We aimed to describe trends in prevalence and burden of disease attributable to high systolic blood pressure (HSBP) among Brazilians ≥ 25 years old according to sex and federal units (FU) using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates. METHODS: We used the comparative risk assessment developed for the GBD study to estimate trends in attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALY), by sex, and FU for HSBP from 1990 to 2017. This study included 14 HSBP-outcome pairs. HSBP was defined as ≥ 140 mmHg for prevalence estimates, and a theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) of 110-115 mmHg was considered for disease burden. We estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs attributed to HSBP. We also explored the drivers of trends in HSBP burden, as well as the correlation between disease burden and sociodemographic development index (SDI). RESULTS: In Brazil, the prevalence of HSBP is 18.9% (95% uncertainty intervals [UI] 18.5-19.3%), with an annual 0.4% increase rate, while age-standardized death rates attributable to HSBP decreased from 189.2 (95%UI 168.5-209.2) deaths to 104.8 (95%UI 94.9-114.4) deaths per 100,000 from 1990 to 2017. In spite of that, the total number of deaths attributable to HSBP increased 53.4% and HSBP raised from 3rd to 1st position, as the leading risk factor for deaths during the period. Regarding total DALYs, HSBP raised from 4th in 1990 to 2nd cause in 2017. The main driver of change of HSBP burden is population aging. Across FUs, the reduction in the age-standardized death rates attributable to HSBP correlated with higher SDI. CONCLUSIONS: While HSBP prevalence shows an increasing trend, age-standardized death and DALY rates are decreasing in Brazil, probably as results of successful public policies for CVD secondary prevention and control, but suboptimal control of its determinants. Reduction was more significant in FUs with higher SDI, suggesting that the effect of health policies was heterogeneous. Moreover, HSBP has become the main risk factor for death in Brazil, mainly due to population aging.

Trends in mortality due to non-communicable diseases in the Brazilian adult population: national and subnational estimates and projections for 2030.

BACKGROUND: Monitoring and reducing premature mortality due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is a global priority of Agenda 2030. This study aimed to describe the mortality trends and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost due to NCDs between 1990 and 2017 for Brazil and to project those for 2030 as well as the risk factors (RFs) attributed deaths according to estimates of the Global Burden of Disease Study. METHODS: We analyzed cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, neoplasms, and diabetes, and compared the mortality rates in 1990 and 2017 for all of Brazil and states. The study used the definition of premature mortality (30-69 years) that is used by the World Health Organization. The number of deaths, mortality rates, DALYs, and years of life lost (YLL) were used to compare 1990 and 2017. We analyzed the YLL for NCDs attributable to RFs. RESULTS: There was a reduction of 35.3% from 509.1 deaths/100,000 inhabitants (1990) to 329.6 deaths/100,000 inhabitants due to NCDs in 2017. The DALY rate decreased by 33.6%, and the YLL rate decreased by 36.0%. There were reductions in NCDs rates in all 27 states. The main RFs related to premature deaths by NCDs in 2017 among women were high body mass index (BMI), dietary risks, high systolic blood pressure, and among men, dietary risks, high systolic blood pressure, tobacco, and high BMI. Trends in mortality rates due to NCDs declined during the study period; however, after 2015, the curve reversed, and rates fluctuated and tended to increase. CONCLUSION: Our findings highlighted a decline in premature mortality rates from NCDs nationwide and in all states. There was a greater reduction in deaths from cardiovascular diseases, followed by respiratory diseases, and we observed a minor reduction for those from diabetes and neoplasms. The observed fluctuations in mortality rates over the last 3 years indicate that if no further action is taken, we may not achieve the NCD Sustainable Development Goals. These findings draw attention to the consequences of austerity measures in a socially unequal setting with great regional disparities in which the majority of the population is dependent on state social policies.

The burden of non-communicable diseases attributable to high BMI in Brazil, 1990-2017: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence and burden of disease resulting from obesity have increased worldwide. In Brazil, more than half of the population is now overweight. However, the impact of this growing risk factor on disease burden remains inexact. Using the 2017 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) results, this study sought to estimate mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost to non-communicable diseases caused by high body mass index (BMI) in both sexes and across age categories. This study also aimed to describe the prevalence of overweight and obesity throughout the states of Brazil. METHODS: Age-standardized prevalence of overweight and obesity were estimated between 1990 and 2017. A comparative risk assessment was applied to estimate DALYs and deaths for non-communicable diseases and for all causes linked to high BMI. RESULTS: The prevalence of overweight and obesity increased during the period of analysis. Overall, age-standardized prevalence of obesity in Brazil was higher in females (29.8%) than in males (24.6%) in 2017; however, since 1990, males have presented greater rise in obesity (244.1%) than females (165.7%). Increases in prevalence burden were greatest in states from the North and Northeast regions of Brazil. Overall, burden due to high BMI also increased from 1990 to 2017. In 2017, high BMI was responsible for 12.3% (8.8-16.1%) of all deaths and 8.4% (6.3-10.7%) of total DALYs lost to non-communicable diseases, up from 7.2% (4.1-10.8%), and 4.6% (2.4-6.0%) in 1990, respectively. Change due to risk exposure is the leading contributor to the growth of BMI burden in Brazil. In 2017, high BMI was responsible for 165,954 deaths and 5,095,125 DALYs. Cardiovascular disease and diabetes have proven to be the most prevalent causes of deaths, along with DALYs caused by high BMI, regardless of sex or state. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates increasing age-standardized prevalence of obesity in all Brazilian states. High BMI plays an important role in disease burdens in terms of cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, and all causes of mortality. Assessing levels and trends in exposures to high BMI and the resulting disease burden highlights the current priority for primary prevention and public health action initiatives focused on obesity.

Association between firearms and mortality in Brazil, 1990 to 2017: a global burden of disease Brazil study.

BACKGROUND: Brazil leads the world in number of firearm deaths and ranks sixth by country in rate of firearm deaths per 100,000 people. This study aims to analyze trends in and burden of mortality by firearms, according to age and sex, for Brazil, and the association between these deaths and indicators of possession and carrying of weapons using data from the global burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors study (GBD) 2017. METHODS: We used GBD 2017 estimates of mortality due to physical violence and self-harm from firearms for Brazil to analyze the association between deaths by firearms and explanatory variables. RESULTS: Deaths from firearms increased in Brazil from 25,819 in 1990 to 48,493 in 2017. Firearm mortality rates were higher among men and in the 20-24 age group; the rate was 20 times higher than for women in the same age group. Homicide rates increased during the study period, while mortality rates for suicides and accidental deaths decreased. The group of Brazilian federation units with the highest firearm collection rate (median = 7.5) showed reductions in the rate of total violent deaths by firearms. In contrast, the group with the lowest firearm collection rate (median = 2.0) showed an increase in firearm deaths from 2000 to 2017. An increase in the rate of voluntary return of firearms was associated with a reduction in mortality rates of unintentional firearm deaths (r = -0.364, p < 0.001). An increase in socio-demographic index (SDI) was associated with a reduction in all firearm death rates (r = -0.266, p = 0.008). An increase in the composite index of firearms seized or collected was associated with a reduction in rates of deaths by firearm in the subgroup of females, children, and the elderly (r = -0.269, p = 0.005). CONCLUSIONS: There was a change in the trend of firearms deaths after the beginning of the collection of weapons in 2004. Federation units that collected more guns have reduced rates of violent firearm deaths.

Current situation and progress toward the 2030 health-related Sustainable Development Goals in China: A systematic analysis.

BACKGROUND: The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), adopted by all United Nations (UN) member states in 2015, established a set of bold and ambitious health-related targets to achieve by 2030. Understanding China's progress toward these targets is critical to improving population health for its 1.4 billion people. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2016, national surveys and surveillance data from China, and qualitative data. Twenty-eight of the 37 indicators included in the GBD Study 2016 were analyzed. We developed an attainment index of health-related SDGs, a scale of 0-100 based on the values of indicators. The projection model is adjusted based on the one developed by the GBD Study 2016 SDG collaborators. We found that China has achieved several health-related SDG targets, including decreasing neonatal and under-5 mortality rates and the maternal mortality ratios and reducing wasting and stunting for children. However, China may only achieve 12 out of the 28 health-related SDG targets by 2030. The number of target indicators achieved varies among provinces and municipalities. In 2016, among the seven measured health domains, China performed best in child nutrition and maternal and child health and reproductive health, with the attainment index scores of 93.0 and 91.8, respectively, followed by noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) (69.4), road injuries (63.6), infectious diseases (63.0), environmental health (62.9), and universal health coverage (UHC) (54.4). There are daunting challenges to achieve the targets for child overweight, infectious diseases, NCD risk factors, and environmental exposure factors. China will also have a formidable challenge in achieving UHC, particularly in ensuring access to essential healthcare for all and providing adequate financial protection. The attainment index of child nutrition is projected to drop to 80.5 by 2025 because of worsening child overweight. The index of NCD risk factors is projected to drop to 38.8 by 2025. Regional disparities are substantial, with eastern provinces generally performing better than central and western provinces. Sex disparities are clear, with men at higher risk of excess mortality than women. The primary limitations of this study are the limited data availability and quality for several indicators and the adoption of "business-as-usual" projection methods. CONCLUSION: The study found that China has made good progress in improving population health, but challenges lie ahead. China has substantially improved the health of children and women and will continue to make good progress, although geographic disparities remain a great challenge. Meanwhile, China faced challenges in NCDs, mental health, and some infectious diseases. Poor control of health risk factors and worsening environmental threats have posed difficulties in further health improvement. Meanwhile, an inefficient health system is a barrier to tackling these challenges among such a rapidly aging population. The eastern provinces are predicted to perform better than the central and western provinces, and women are predicted to be more likely than men to achieve these targets by 2030. In order to make good progress, China must take a series of concerted actions, including more investments in public goods and services for health and redressing the intracountry inequities.

Mortality, morbidity, and risk factors in China and its provinces, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BACKGROUND: Public health is a priority for the Chinese Government. Evidence-based decision making for health at the province level in China, which is home to a fifth of the global population, is of paramount importance. This analysis uses data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to help inform decision making and monitor progress on health at the province level. METHODS: We used the methods in GBD 2017 to analyse health patterns in the 34 province-level administrative units in China from 1990 to 2017. We estimated all-cause and cause-specific mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), summary exposure values (SEVs), and attributable risk. We compared the observed results with expected values estimated based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). FINDINGS: Stroke and ischaemic heart disease were the leading causes of death and DALYs at the national level in China in 2017. Age-standardised DALYs per 100 000 population decreased by 33·1% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 29·8 to 37·4) for stroke and increased by 4·6% (-3·3 to 10·7) for ischaemic heart disease from 1990 to 2017. Age-standardised stroke, ischaemic heart disease, lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and liver cancer were the five leading causes of YLLs in 2017. Musculoskeletal disorders, mental health disorders, and sense organ diseases were the three leading causes of YLDs in 2017, and high systolic blood pressure, smoking, high-sodium diet, and ambient particulate matter pollution were among the leading four risk factors contributing to deaths and DALYs. All provinces had higher than expected DALYs per 100 000 population for liver cancer, with the observed to expected ratio ranging from 2·04 to 6·88. The all-cause age-standardised DALYs per 100 000 population were lower than expected in all provinces in 2017, and among the top 20 level 3 causes were lower than expected for ischaemic heart disease, Alzheimer's disease, headache disorder, and low back pain. The largest percentage change at the national level in age-standardised SEVs among the top ten leading risk factors was in high body-mass index (185%, 95% UI 113·1 to 247·7]), followed by ambient particulate matter pollution (88·5%, 66·4 to 116·4). INTERPRETATION: China has made substantial progress in reducing the burden of many diseases and disabilities. Strategies targeting chronic diseases, particularly in the elderly, should be prioritised in the expanding Chinese health-care system. FUNDING: China National Key Research and Development Program and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, Regional, National, and Subnational Big Data to Inform Health Equity Research: Perspectives from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

Objectives: Everyone deserves a long and healthy life, but in reality, health outcomes differ across populations. We use results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (GBD 2017) to report patterns in the burden of diseases, injuries, and risks at the global, regional, national, and subnational level, and by sociodemographic index (SDI), from 1990 to 2017. Design: GBD 2017 undertook a systematic analysis of published studies and available data providing information on prevalence, incidence, remission, and excess mortality. We computed prevalence, incidence, mortality, life expectancy, healthy life expectancy, years of life lost due to premature mortality, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life years with 95% uncertainty intervals for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries from 1990 to 2017. We also computed SDI, a summary indicator combining measures of income, education, and fertility. Results: There were wide disparities in the burden of disease by SDI, with smaller burdens in affluent countries and in specific regions within countries. Select diseases and risks, such as drug use disorders, high blood pressure, high body mass index, diet, high fasting plasma glucose, smoking, and alcohol use disorders warrant increased global attention and indicate a need for greater investment in prevention and treatment across the life course. Conclusions: Policymakers need a comprehensive picture of what risks and causes result in disability and death. The GBD provides the means to quantify health loss: these findings can be used to examine root causes of disparities and develop programs to improve health and health equity.

The Burden of HIV/AIDS in Ethiopia from 1990 to 2016: Evidence from the Global Burden of Diseases 2016 Study.

BACKGROUND: The burden of HIV/AIDS in Ethiopia has not been comprehensively assessed over the last two decades. In this study, we used the 2016 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk factors (GBD) data to analyze the incidence, prevalence, mortality and Disability-adjusted Life Years Lost (DALY) rates of Human Immunodeficiency Virus / Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) in Ethiopia over the last 26 years. METHODS: The GBD 2016 used a wide range of data source for Ethiopia such as verbal autopsy (VA), surveys, reports of the Federal Ministry of Health and the United Nations (UN) and published scientific articles. The modified United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) Spectrum model was used to estimate the incidence and mortality rates for HIV/AIDS. RESULTS: In 2016, an estimated 36,990 new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 8775-80262), 670,906 prevalent HIV cases (95% UI: 568,268-798,970) and 19,999 HIV deaths (95% UI: 16426-24412) occurred in Ethiopia. The HIV/AIDS incidence rate peaked in 1995 and declined by 6.3% annually for both sexes with a total reduction of 77% between 1990 and 2016. The annualized HIV/AIDS mortality rate reduction during 1990 to 2016 for both sexes was 0.4%. CONCLUSIONS: Ethiopia has achieved the 50% reduction of the incidence rate of HIV/AIDS based on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) target. However, the decline in HIV/AIDS mortality rate has been comparatively slow. The country should strengthen the HIV/AIDS detection and treatment programs at community level to achieve its targets during the Sustainable Development Program (SDGs)-era.

Health disparities across the counties of Kenya and implications for policy makers, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.

BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 provided comprehensive estimates of health loss globally. Decision makers in Kenya can use GBD subnational data to target health interventions and address county-level variation in the burden of disease. METHODS: We used GBD 2016 estimates of life expectancy at birth, healthy life expectancy, all-cause and cause-specific mortality, years of life lost, years lived with disability, disability-adjusted life-years, and risk factors to analyse health by age and sex at the national and county levels in Kenya from 1990 to 2016. FINDINGS: The national all-cause mortality rate decreased from 850·3 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 829·8-871·1) deaths per 100 000 in 1990 to 579·0 (562·1-596·0) deaths per 100 000 in 2016. Under-5 mortality declined from 95·4 (95% UI 90·1-101·3) deaths per 1000 livebirths in 1990 to 43·4 (36·9-51·2) deaths per 1000 livebirths in 2016, and maternal mortality fell from 315·7 (242·9-399·4) deaths per 100 000 in 1990 to 257·6 (195·1-335·3) deaths per 100 000 in 2016, with steeper declines after 2006 and heterogeneously across counties. Life expectancy at birth increased by 5·4 (95% UI 3·7-7·2) years, with higher gains in females than males in all but ten counties. Unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing, unsafe sex, and malnutrition were the leading national risk factors in 2016. INTERPRETATION: Health outcomes have improved in Kenya since 2006. The burden of communicable diseases decreased but continues to predominate the total disease burden in 2016, whereas the non-communicable disease burden increased. Health gains varied strikingly across counties, indicating targeted approaches for health policy are necessary. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Changes in health in the countries of the UK and 150 English Local Authority areas 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have reported national and regional Global Burden of Disease (GBD) estimates for the UK. Because of substantial variation in health within the UK, action to improve it requires comparable estimates of disease burden and risks at country and local levels. The slowdown in the rate of improvement in life expectancy requires further investigation. We use GBD 2016 data on mortality, causes of death, and disability to analyse the burden of disease in the countries of the UK and within local authorities in England by deprivation quintile. METHODS: We extracted data from the GBD 2016 to estimate years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and attributable risks from 1990 to 2016 for England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, the UK, and 150 English Upper-Tier Local Authorities. We estimated the burden of disease by cause of death, condition, year, and sex. We analysed the association between burden of disease and socioeconomic deprivation using the Index of Multiple Deprivation. We present results for all 264 GBD causes of death combined and the leading 20 specific causes, and all 84 GBD risks or risk clusters combined and 17 specific risks or risk clusters. FINDINGS: The leading causes of age-adjusted YLLs in all UK countries in 2016 were ischaemic heart disease, lung cancers, cerebrovascular disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Age-standardised rates of YLLs for all causes varied by two times between local areas in England according to levels of socioeconomic deprivation (from 14 274 per 100 000 population [95% uncertainty interval 12 791-15 875] in Blackpool to 6888 [6145-7739] in Wokingham). Some Upper-Tier Local Authorities, particularly those in London, did better than expected for their level of deprivation. Allowing for differences in age structure, more deprived Upper-Tier Local Authorities had higher attributable YLLs for most major risk factors in the GBD. The population attributable fractions for all-cause YLLs for individual major risk factors varied across Upper-Tier Local Authorities. Life expectancy and YLLs have improved more slowly since 2010 in all UK countries compared with 1990-2010. In nine of 150 Upper-Tier Local Authorities, YLLs increased after 2010. For attributable YLLs, the rate of improvement slowed most substantially for cardiovascular disease and breast, colorectal, and lung cancers, and showed little change for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. Morbidity makes an increasing contribution to overall burden in the UK compared with mortality. The age-standardised UK DALY rate for low back and neck pain (1795 [1258-2356]) was higher than for ischaemic heart disease (1200 [1155-1246]) or lung cancer (660 [642-679]). The leading causes of ill health (measured through YLDs) in the UK in 2016 were low back and neck pain, skin and subcutaneous diseases, migraine, depressive disorders, and sense organ disease. Age-standardised YLD rates varied much less than equivalent YLL rates across the UK, which reflects the relative scarcity of local data on causes of ill health. INTERPRETATION: These estimates at local, regional, and national level will allow policy makers to match resources and priorities to levels of burden and risk factors. Improvement in YLLs and life expectancy slowed notably after 2010, particularly in cardiovascular disease and cancer, and targeted actions are needed if the rate of improvement is to recover. A targeted policy response is also required to address the increasing proportion of burden due to morbidity, such as musculoskeletal problems and depression. Improving the quality and completeness of available data on these causes is an essential component of this response. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Public Health England.

On the road to universal health care in Indonesia, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.

BACKGROUND: As Indonesia moves to provide health coverage for all citizens, understanding patterns of morbidity and mortality is important to allocate resources and address inequality. The Global Burden of Disease 2016 study (GBD 2016) estimates sources of early death and disability, which can inform policies to improve health care. METHODS: We used GBD 2016 results for cause-specific deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), life expectancy at birth, healthy life expectancy, and risk factors for 333 causes in Indonesia and in seven comparator countries. Estimates were produced by location, year, age, and sex using methods outlined in GBD 2016. Using the Socio-demographic Index, we generated expected values for each metric and compared these against observed results. FINDINGS: In Indonesia between 1990 and 2016, life expectancy increased by 8·0 years (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 7·3-8·8) to 71·7 years (71·0-72·3): the increase was 7·4 years (6·4-8·6) for males and 8·7 years (7·8-9·5) for females. Total DALYs due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional causes decreased by 58·6% (95% UI 55·6-61·6), from 43·8 million (95% UI 41·4-46·5) to 18·1 million (16·8-19·6), whereas total DALYs from non-communicable diseases rose. DALYs due to injuries decreased, both in crude rates and in age-standardised rates. The three leading causes of DALYs in 2016 were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and diabetes. Dietary risks were a leading contributor to the DALY burden, accounting for 13·6% (11·8-15·4) of DALYs in 2016. INTERPRETATION: Over the past 27 years, health across many indicators has improved in Indonesia. Improvements are partly offset by rising deaths and a growing burden of non-communicable diseases. To maintain and increase health gains, further work is needed to identify successful interventions and improve health equity. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The burden of disease in Spain: Results from the Global Burden of Disease 2016. / La carga de enfermedad en España: resultados del Estudio de la Carga Global de las Enfermedades 2016.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The global burden of disease (GBD) project measures the health of populations worldwide on an annual basis, and results are available by country. We used the estimates of the GBD to summarise the state of health in Spain in 2016 and report trends in mortality and morbidity from 1990 to 2016. MATERIAL AND METHODS: GBD 2016 estimated disease burden due to 333 diseases and injuries, and 84 risk factors. The GBD list of causes is hierarchical and includes 3 top level categories, namely: 1) communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; 2) non-communicable diseases (NCDs), and 3) injuries. Mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), risk factors, and progress towards the sustainable development goals (SDGs) are presented based on the GBD 2016 data in Spain. RESULTS: There were 418,516 deaths in Spain in 2016, from a total population of 46.5 million, and 80.5% of them occurred in those aged 70 years and older. Overall, NCDs were the main cause of death: 388,617 (95% uncertainty interval 374,959-402,486), corresponding to 92.8% of all deaths. They were followed by 3.6% due to injuries with 15,052 (13,902-17,107) deaths, and 3.5% communicable diseases with 14,847 (13,208-16,482) deaths. The 5 leading specific causes of death were ischaemic heart disease (IHD, 14.6% of all deaths), Alzheimer disease and other dementias (13.6%), stroke (7.1%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (6.9%), and lung cancer (5.0%). Remarkable increases in mortality from 1990 to 2016 were observed in other cancers, lower respiratory infections, chronic kidney disease, and other cardiovascular disease, among others. On the contrary, road injuries moved down from 8th to 32nd position, and diabetes from 6th to 10th. Low back and neck pain became the number one cause of DALYs in Spain in 2016, just surpassing IHD, while Alzheimer disease moved from 9th to 3rd position. The greatest changes in DALYs were observed for road injuries dropping from 4th to 16th position, and congenital disorders from 17th to 35th; conversely, oral disorders rose from 25th to 17th. Overall, smoking is by far the most relevant risk factor in Spain, followed by high blood pressure, high body mass index, alcohol use, and high fasting plasma glucose. Finally, Spain scored 74.3 of 100 points in the SDG index classification in 2016, and the main national drivers of detrimental health in SDGs were alcohol consumption, smoking and child obesity. An increase to 80.3 points is projected in 2030. CONCLUSION: Low back and neck pain was the most important contributor of disability in Spain in 2016. There has seen a remarkable increase in the burden due to Alzheimer disease and other dementias. Tobacco remains the most important health issue to address in Spain.

Causes of death among children aged 5-14 years in the WHO European Region: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.

BACKGROUND: The mortality burden in children aged 5-14 years in the WHO European Region has not been comprehensively studied. We assessed the distribution and trends of the main causes of death among children aged 5-9 years and 10-14 years from 1990 to 2016, for 51 countries in the WHO European Region. METHODS: We used data from vital registration systems, cancer registries, and police records from 1980 to 2016 to estimate cause-specific mortality using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. FINDINGS: For children aged 5-9 years, all-cause mortality rates (per 100 000 population) were estimated to be 46·3 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 45·1-47·5) in 1990 and 19·5 (18·1-20·9) in 2016, reflecting a 58·0% (54·7-61·1) decline. For children aged 10-14 years, all-cause mortality rates (per 100 000 population) were 37·9 (37·3-38·6) in 1990 and 20·1 (18·8-21·3) in 2016, reflecting a 47·1% (43·8-50·4) decline. In 2016, we estimated 10 740 deaths (95% UI 9970-11 542) in children aged 5-9 years and 10 279 deaths (9652-10 897) in those aged 10-14 years in the WHO European Region. Injuries (road injuries, drowning, and other injuries) caused 4163 deaths (3820-4540; 38·7% of total deaths) in children aged 5-9 years and 4468 deaths (4162-4812; 43·5% of total) in those aged 10-14 years in 2016. Neoplasms caused 2161 deaths (1872-2406; 20·1% of total deaths) in children aged 5-9 years and 1943 deaths (1749-2101; 18·9% of total deaths) in those aged 10-14 years in 2016. Notable differences existed in cause-specific mortality rates between the European subregions, from a two-times difference for leukaemia to a 20-times difference for lower respiratory infections between the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and EU15 (the 15 member states that had joined the European Union before May, 2004). INTERPRETATION: Marked progress has been made in reducing the mortality burden in children aged 5-14 years over the past 26 years in the WHO European Region. More deaths could be prevented, especially in CIS countries, through intervention and prevention efforts focusing on the leading causes of death, which are road injuries, drowning, and lower respiratory infections. The findings of our study could be used as a baseline to assess the effect of implementation of programmes and policies on child mortality burden. FUNDING: WHO and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The State of US Health, 1990-2016: Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Among US States.

Introduction: Several studies have measured health outcomes in the United States, but none have provided a comprehensive assessment of patterns of health by state. Objective: To use the results of the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) to report trends in the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors at the state level from 1990 to 2016. Design and Setting: A systematic analysis of published studies and available data sources estimates the burden of disease by age, sex, geography, and year. Main Outcomes and Measures: Prevalence, incidence, mortality, life expectancy, healthy life expectancy (HALE), years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality, years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 causes and 84 risk factors with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were computed. Results: Between 1990 and 2016, overall death rates in the United States declined from 745.2 (95% UI, 740.6 to 749.8) per 100 000 persons to 578.0 (95% UI, 569.4 to 587.1) per 100 000 persons. The probability of death among adults aged 20 to 55 years declined in 31 states and Washington, DC from 1990 to 2016. In 2016, Hawaii had the highest life expectancy at birth (81.3 years) and Mississippi had the lowest (74.7 years), a 6.6-year difference. Minnesota had the highest HALE at birth (70.3 years), and West Virginia had the lowest (63.8 years), a 6.5-year difference. The leading causes of DALYs in the United States for 1990 and 2016 were ischemic heart disease and lung cancer, while the third leading cause in 1990 was low back pain, and the third leading cause in 2016 was chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Opioid use disorders moved from the 11th leading cause of DALYs in 1990 to the 7th leading cause in 2016, representing a 74.5% (95% UI, 42.8% to 93.9%) change. In 2016, each of the following 6 risks individually accounted for more than 5% of risk-attributable DALYs: tobacco consumption, high body mass index (BMI), poor diet, alcohol and drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high blood pressure. Across all US states, the top risk factors in terms of attributable DALYs were due to 1 of the 3 following causes: tobacco consumption (32 states), high BMI (10 states), or alcohol and drug use (8 states). Conclusions and Relevance: There are wide differences in the burden of disease at the state level. Specific diseases and risk factors, such as drug use disorders, high BMI, poor diet, high fasting plasma glucose level, and alcohol use disorders are increasing and warrant increased attention. These data can be used to inform national health priorities for research, clinical care, and policy.

Tuberculosis Burden in Ethiopia from 1990 to 2016: Evidence from the Global Burden of Diseases 2016 Study.

BACKGROUND: The burden of Tuberculosis (TB) has not been comprehensively evaluated over the last 25 years in Ethiopia. In this study, we used the 2016 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors (GBD) data to analyze the incidence, prevalence and mortality rates of tuberculosis (TB) in Ethiopia over the last 26 years. METHODS: The GBD 2016 is a mathematical modeling using different data source for Ethiopia such as verbal autopsy (VA), prevalence surveys and annual case notifications. Age and sex specific causes of death for TB were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble Modeling (CODEm). We used the available data such as annual notifications and prevalence surveys as an input to estimate incidence and prevalence rates respectively using DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. RESULTS: In 2016, we estimated 219,186 (95%UI: 182,977-265,292) new, 151,602 (95% UI: 126,054-180,976) prevalent TB cases and 48,910(95% UI: 40,310-58,195) TB deaths. The age-standardized TB incidence rate decreased from 201.6/100,000 to 88.5/100,000 (with a total decline of 56%) between 1990 to 2016. Similarly, the age-standardized TB mortality rate declined from 393.8/100,000 to 100/100,000 between 1990 and 2016(with a total decline of 75%). CONCLUSIONS: Ethiopia has achieved the 50% reduction of most of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) targets related to TB. However, the decline of TB incidence and prevalence rates has been comparatively slow. The country should strengthen the TB case detection and treatment programs at community level to achieve its targets during the Sustainable Development Program (SDGs)-era.

Rapid shelf-wide cooling response of a stratified coastal ocean to hurricanes.

Large uncertainty in the predicted intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) persists compared to the steadily improving skill in the predicted TC tracks. This intensity uncertainty has its most significant implications in the coastal zone, where TC impacts to populated shorelines are greatest. Recent studies have demonstrated that rapid ahead-of-eye-center cooling of a stratified coastal ocean can have a significant impact on hurricane intensity forecasts. Using observation-validated, high-resolution ocean modeling, the stratified coastal ocean cooling processes observed in two U.S. Mid-Atlantic hurricanes were investigated: Hurricane Irene (2011)-with an inshore Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB) track during the late summer stratified coastal ocean season-and Tropical Storm Barry (2007)-with an offshore track during early summer. For both storms, the critical ahead-of-eye-center depth-averaged force balance across the entire MAB shelf included an onshore wind stress balanced by an offshore pressure gradient. This resulted in onshore surface currents opposing offshore bottom currents that enhanced surface to bottom current shear and turbulent mixing across the thermocline, resulting in the rapid cooling of the surface layer ahead-of-eye-center. Because the same baroclinic and mixing processes occurred for two storms on opposite ends of the track and seasonal stratification envelope, the response appears robust. It will be critical to forecast these processes and their implications for a wide range of future storms using realistic 3-D coupled atmosphere-ocean models to lower the uncertainty in predictions of TC intensities and impacts and enable coastal populations to better respond to increasing rapid intensification threats in an era of rising sea levels.