Phenological shifts and mismatch with marine productivity vary among Pacific salmon species and populations.

Global climate change is shifting the timing of life-cycle events, sometimes resulting in phenological mismatches between predators and prey. Phenological shifts and subsequent mismatches may be consistent across populations, or they could vary unpredictably across populations within the same species. For anadromous Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), juveniles from thousands of locally adapted populations migrate from diverse freshwater habitats to the Pacific Ocean every year. Both the timing of freshwater migration and ocean arrival, relative to nearshore prey (phenological match/mismatch), can control marine survival and population dynamics. Here we examined phenological change of 66 populations across six anadromous Pacific salmon species throughout their range in western North America with the longest time series spanning 1951-2019. We show that different salmon species have different rates of phenological change but that there was substantial within-species variation that was not correlated with changing environmental conditions or geographic patterns. Moreover, outmigration phenologies have not tracked shifts in the timing of marine primary productivity, potentially increasing the frequency of future phenological mismatches. Understanding population responses to mismatches with prey are an important part of characterizing overall population-specific climate vulnerability.

Genome-wide analysis reveals demographic and life-history patterns associated with habitat modification in landlocked, deep-spawning sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka).

Human-mediated habitat fragmentation in freshwater ecosystems can negatively impact genetic diversity, demography, and life history of native biota, while disrupting the behavior of species that are dependent on spatial connectivity to complete their life cycles. In the Alouette River system (British Columbia, Canada), dam construction in 1928 impacted passage of anadromous sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka), with the last records of migrants occurring in the 1930s. Since that time, O. nerka persisted as a resident population in Alouette Reservoir until experimental water releases beginning in 2005 created conditions for migration; two years later, returning migrants were observed for the first time in ~70 years, raising important basic and applied questions regarding life-history variation and population structure in this system. Here, we investigated the genetic distinctiveness and population history of Alouette Reservoir O. nerka using genome-wide SNP data (n = 7,709 loci) collected for resident and migrant individuals, as well as for neighboring anadromous sockeye salmon and resident kokanee populations within the Fraser River drainage (n = 312 individuals). Bayesian clustering and principal components analyses based on neutral loci revealed five distinct clusters, largely associated with geography, and clearly demonstrated that Alouette Reservoir resident and migrant individuals are genetically distinct from other O. nerka populations in the Fraser River drainage. At a finer level, there was no clear evidence for differentiation between Alouette Reservoir residents and migrants; although we detected eight high-confidence outlier loci, they all mapped to sex chromosomes suggesting that differences were likely due to uneven sex ratios rather than life history. Taken together, these data suggest that contemporary Alouette Reservoir O. nerka represents a landlocked sockeye salmon population, constituting the first reported instance of deep-water spawning behavior associated with this life-history form. This finding punctuates the need for reassessment of conservation status and supports ongoing fisheries management activities in Alouette Reservoir.