Translational learning from clinical studies predicts drug pharmacokinetics across patient populations.

Early indication of late-stage failure of novel candidate drugs could be facilitated by continuous integration, assessment, and transfer of knowledge acquired along pharmaceutical development programs. We here present a translational systems pharmacology workflow that combines drug cocktail probing in a specifically designed clinical study, physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling, and Bayesian statistics to identify and transfer (patho-)physiological and drug-specific knowledge across distinct patient populations. Our work builds on two clinical investigations, one with 103 healthy volunteers and one with 79 diseased patients from which we systematically derived physiological information from pharmacokinetic data for a reference probe drug (midazolam) at the single-patient level. Taking into account the acquired knowledge describing (patho-)physiological alterations in the patient cohort allowed the successful prediction of the population pharmacokinetics of a second, candidate probe drug (torsemide) in the patient population. In addition, we identified significant relations of the acquired physiological processes to patient metadata from liver biopsies. The presented prototypical systems pharmacology approach is a proof of concept for model-based translation across different stages of pharmaceutical development programs. Applied consistently, it has the potential to systematically improve predictivity of pharmacokinetic simulations by incorporating the results of clinical trials and translating them to subsequent studies.

Bayesian Population Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) Approach for a Physiologically Realistic Characterization of Interindividual Variability in Clinically Relevant Populations.

Interindividual variability in anatomical and physiological properties results in significant differences in drug pharmacokinetics. The consideration of such pharmacokinetic variability supports optimal drug efficacy and safety for each single individual, e.g. by identification of individual-specific dosings. One clear objective in clinical drug development is therefore a thorough characterization of the physiological sources of interindividual variability. In this work, we present a Bayesian population physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) approach for the mechanistically and physiologically realistic identification of interindividual variability. The consideration of a generic and highly detailed mechanistic PBPK model structure enables the integration of large amounts of prior physiological knowledge, which is then updated with new experimental data in a Bayesian framework. A covariate model integrates known relationships of physiological parameters to age, gender and body height. We further provide a framework for estimation of the a posteriori parameter dependency structure at the population level. The approach is demonstrated considering a cohort of healthy individuals and theophylline as an application example. The variability and co-variability of physiological parameters are specified within the population; respectively. Significant correlations are identified between population parameters and are applied for individual- and population-specific visual predictive checks of the pharmacokinetic behavior, which leads to improved results compared to present population approaches. In the future, the integration of a generic PBPK model into an hierarchical approach allows for extrapolations to other populations or drugs, while the Bayesian paradigm allows for an iterative application of the approach and thereby a continuous updating of physiological knowledge with new data. This will facilitate decision making e.g. from preclinical to clinical development or extrapolation of PK behavior from healthy to clinically significant populations.

A computational systems biology software platform for multiscale modeling and simulation: integrating whole-body physiology, disease biology, and molecular reaction networks.

Today, in silico studies and trial simulations already complement experimental approaches in pharmaceutical R&D and have become indispensable tools for decision making and communication with regulatory agencies. While biology is multiscale by nature, project work, and software tools usually focus on isolated aspects of drug action, such as pharmacokinetics at the organism scale or pharmacodynamic interaction on the molecular level. We present a modeling and simulation software platform consisting of PK-Sim(®) and MoBi(®) capable of building and simulating models that integrate across biological scales. A prototypical multiscale model for the progression of a pancreatic tumor and its response to pharmacotherapy is constructed and virtual patients are treated with a prodrug activated by hepatic metabolization. Tumor growth is driven by signal transduction leading to cell cycle transition and proliferation. Free tumor concentrations of the active metabolite inhibit Raf kinase in the signaling cascade and thereby cell cycle progression. In a virtual clinical study, the individual therapeutic outcome of the chemotherapeutic intervention is simulated for a large population with heterogeneous genomic background. Thereby, the platform allows efficient model building and integration of biological knowledge and prior data from all biological scales. Experimental in vitro model systems can be linked with observations in animal experiments and clinical trials. The interplay between patients, diseases, and drugs and topics with high clinical relevance such as the role of pharmacogenomics, drug-drug, or drug-metabolite interactions can be addressed using this mechanistic, insight driven multiscale modeling approach.